Gentlemen, i think it's safe to say we're the new halving elite

[pattu1]

The same debate happened before the last Bitcoin halving in 2012 and nothing actually happened to the price. Of course back in 2012 Bitcoin was much less known to the general community.

You should qualify that statement saying nothing happened immediately.
The price now is a lot higher than what it was 4 years ago.

[1715009266]

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[1715009266]

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[YuginKadoya]

The same debate happened before the last Bitcoin halving in 2012 and nothing actually happened to the price. Of course back in 2012 Bitcoin was much less known to the general community.

You should qualify that statement saying nothing happened immediately.
The price now is a lot higher than what it was 4 years ago.

Yup! I know, I am just saying that the increase or decrease of Bitcoin will not be very high or low, but predicting it now in the recent halving
and base on that alone I think it still be the same as the last time. Well that is only my prediction.

[futureofbitcoin]

So what is overpriced for you? The actual price we are dealing with?
A price of $500-$600?
There is no answer to that imo. What you consider as too expensive might be a cheap and good entry point for others.

The point isn't what I think is overpriced or what YOU think is overpriced. I think bitcoin can be worth $200,000 and not be overpriced.

But what matters is what the WORLD thinks is overpriced, and currently, it seems they think $300+ is overpriced.

Bitcoin's demand is a function of the price point it's at.

[bitebits]

In the future when pretty much all the coins have been mined. People put an estimate for how much the market cap of bitcoin will be, and then divide by 21 million to get the value per coin, and they will buy if it's significantly higher than what it is now. So the price is essentially completely dictated by the total possible value of all bitcoins, divided by 21 million.

The error in your reasoning is that all those 21m bitcoins will be available to you if you are willing to pay the market price.
I’m Hoarding Bitcoins, and No You Can’t Have Any

Secondly if you look at the halving from a dollar value demand perspective and assume that currently all mined bitcoins are sold immediately:
3600BTC x 250$ = currently 900,000$ demand per day.

Now lets assume that the dollar value demand is still the same after the halving and that all mined bitcoins are still sold immediately (1800BTC instead of 3600BTC).
Something has to move. The dollar value of a bitcoin has to double to 500$ or the current holders need to be willing to supply those extra 1800BTC per day. Each day, every day.

It will likely be a combination of the two.

[Fiat_Hodler]

In the future when pretty much all the coins have been mined. People put an estimate for how much the market cap of bitcoin will be, and then divide by 21 million to get the value per coin, and they will buy if it's significantly higher than what it is now. So the price is essentially completely dictated by the total possible value of all bitcoins, divided by 21 million.

The error in your reasoning is that all those 21m bitcoins will be available to you if you are willing to pay the market price.
I’m Hoarding Bitcoins, and No You Can’t Have Any

Secondly if you look at the halving from a dollar value demand perspective and assume that currently all mined bitcoins are sold immediately:
3600BTC x 250$ = currently 900,000$ demand per day.

Now lets assume that the dollar value demand is still the same after the halving and that all mined bitcoins are still sold immediately (1800BTC instead of 3600BTC).
Something has to move. The dollar value of a bitcoin has to double to 500$ or the current holders need to be willing to supply those extra 1800BTC per day. Each day, every day.

It will likely be a combination of the two.

or satoshi can volunteer to sell 1800 btc per day to keep the price level.

[LMGTFY]

In the future when pretty much all the coins have been mined. People put an estimate for how much the market cap of bitcoin will be, and then divide by 21 million to get the value per coin, and they will buy if it's significantly higher than what it is now. So the price is essentially completely dictated by the total possible value of all bitcoins, divided by 21 million.

The error in your reasoning is that all those 21m bitcoins will be available to you if you are willing to pay the market price.
I’m Hoarding Bitcoins, and No You Can’t Have Any

Secondly if you look at the halving from a dollar value demand perspective and assume that currently all mined bitcoins are sold immediately:
3600BTC x 250$ = currently 900,000$ demand per day.

Now lets assume that the dollar value demand is still the same after the halving and that all mined bitcoins are still sold immediately (1800BTC instead of 3600BTC).
Something has to move. The dollar value of a bitcoin has to double to 500$ or the current holders need to be willing to supply those extra 1800BTC per day. Each day, every day.

It will likely be a combination of the two.

or satoshi can volunteer to sell 1800 btc per day to keep the price level.

What do you think is the likelihood - in percentage terms - of that happening, and why? (Personally, I'd assess the chance to be vanishingly small - so small as to be not worth considering - but I'm interested in the reasoning behind higher values).

[futureofbitcoin]

In the future when pretty much all the coins have been mined. People put an estimate for how much the market cap of bitcoin will be, and then divide by 21 million to get the value per coin, and they will buy if it's significantly higher than what it is now. So the price is essentially completely dictated by the total possible value of all bitcoins, divided by 21 million.

The error in your reasoning is that all those 21m bitcoins will be available to you if you are willing to pay the market price.
I’m Hoarding Bitcoins, and No You Can’t Have Any

Secondly if you look at the halving from a dollar value demand perspective and assume that currently all mined bitcoins are sold immediately:
3600BTC x 250$ = currently 900,000$ demand per day.

Now lets assume that the dollar value demand is still the same after the halving and that all mined bitcoins are still sold immediately (1800BTC instead of 3600BTC).
Something has to move. The dollar value of a bitcoin has to double to 500$ or the current holders need to be willing to supply those extra 1800BTC per day. Each day, every day.

It will likely be a combination of the two.

See, again, you're looking at bitcoin as something like food. A consumable whose main purpose is NOT speculation.


In that case, the supply reasoning works. But what I was trying to tell you, is bitcoin doesn't work that way. 99+% of the value of bitcoin currently comes from speculation, can we agree on that?

If so, what that means, is that the VAST majority of people owning bitcoins are in hopes of it rising in value. That's the value proposition for them; it's why they bought/mined bitcoins in the first place. It's why they're holding.

IF they cannot expect an increase in value, then there is absolutely no reason for them to hold bitcoins. In which case, they will sell. Again, we're under the assumption that bitcoin does not yet have enough intrinsic value to justify even a fraction of its current price.


But what that means, is that demand and supply are HEAVILY influenced by the price. Let's say the price increases from $200 to $300 (as an example). The people who thought that bitcoin is a good deal at $200-$299 will start selling, because the price is already over their threshold, causing a much higher supply.

Because people don't have a need to buy bitcoins (unlike food, clothes, etc), even if the supply is low, as long as they think it's overpriced, they will not buy it.


Now again, I agree that PERHAPS the halving will have some effect; I said less than 5% but probably less than 1%. I'm not saying it will have absolutely 0 effect.

What I am saying, is that you can't just take the halving by itself, ignore all other variables (because you don't know them) and confidently make predictions about the future. The halving is one, small variable in the grand scheme of things, doing that would be like claiming you know the strength of the US army vs the strength of the Russian army because, well, you have a friend who is an American solider and and a friend who is a Russian solider. Let's ignore the rest of the military because we don't know, right?

[RussianRaibow]

In the past four years, there's probably never been a safer time to hold Bitcoin than now.

I do so hope you're right It seems every time bitcoin is rising something happens that fucks it up, latest BS, XT....

Do not blame XT only. There is malleability too. They can do all these experiments after 2020, when 1 BTC becomes equal to 2020 USD.

[r0ach]

More bullish news:

"The IMF is not saying much other than there are three crisis epic centers within the emerging market crisis including China, Brazil, Turkey, and Malaysia"

China devalues currency and puts in capital controls = all chinamen run to bitcoin again.

[Febo]

In the past four years, there's probably never been a safer time to hold Bitcoin than now.

Not now now, but in beginning of 2017 what is not really now, but some might say tomorrow.
Price will not raise straight after halving but with a 3-6 months delay. So is more then a year til then most likely a year and a half. Lots of things can happen in the meantime.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

In the past four years, there's probably never been a safer time to hold Bitcoin than now.

Not now now, but in beginning of 2017 what is not really now, but some might say tomorrow.
Price will not raise straight after halving but with a 3-6 months delay. So is more then a year til then most likely a year and a half. Lots of things can happen in the meantime.

18 months is nothing in this game. Patience is key, sit tight & HODL & you will be rewarded in time.

[pattu1]

The same debate happened before the last Bitcoin halving in 2012 and nothing actually happened to the price. Of course back in 2012 Bitcoin was much less known to the general community.

You should qualify that statement saying nothing happened immediately.
The price now is a lot higher than what it was 4 years ago.

Yup! I know, I am just saying that the increase or decrease of Bitcoin will not be very high or low, but predicting it now in the recent halving
and base on that alone I think it still be the same as the last time. Well that is only my prediction.

Yup, even in hindsight, we cannot calculate what the effect of the block halving was (because so many factors influence price).
So, trying to predict is futile.

[DieJohnny]

If anyone doesn't think halving will create huge price pressure, please sell me your btc now.

There is such a thing as predicting, and if you do it right you will pay for your house in a hurry. The price is going to go up. period.

Do yourselves a favor, save your future self from jumping out of that 40 story building and secure your financial future now while a single bitcoin is still within your reach.

Bitcoin has been down or sideways for two years and I buy more every single chance I get. Because the 10 year-in-the-future version of me will hate me if I don't.

[jtalk]

I will do agree that it is safe and sure to say all those including me will be part of new halving elite who hold their bitcoins.There will be a steady increase till halving and after halving we will see a speedy increase which is obvious to be.

[Biodom]

halving elite...lol
there is or will ever be just enough bitcoin for each person on earth to have 0.003 BTC (3000 millibits)
there is or will ever be just enough bitcoin for each person in OECD countries to have 0.017 BTC (currently ~$4) if non-OECD countries have none (very unlikely)

Ponder this, then come back and ponder it again.

It will be either something close to zero/BTC or a VERY large number (btc price) in 20 years.

[YuginKadoya]

Yup, even in hindsight, we cannot calculate what the effect of the block halving was (because so many factors influence price).
So, trying to predict is futile.

Yup it is very futile to predict now, it doesn't make sense even if you said it will increase or derease or just stay the same but it is just a suggestion on what will happen in the coming halving of bitcoin, suggesting something isn't gonna hurt no body right?

[pattu1]

Yup, even in hindsight, we cannot calculate what the effect of the block halving was (because so many factors influence price).
So, trying to predict is futile.

Yup it is very futile to predict now, it doesn't make sense even if you said it will increase or derease or just stay the same but it is just a suggestion on what will happen in the coming halving of bitcoin, suggesting something isn't gonna hurt no body right?

Nope, it won't hurt anybody.
The uptrend seems to have begun. I am not letting go of my coins till after the halving. 

[Amph]

So what is overpriced for you? The actual price we are dealing with?
A price of $500-$600?
There is no answer to that imo. What you consider as too expensive might be a cheap and good entry point for others.

The point isn't what I think is overpriced or what YOU think is overpriced. I think bitcoin can be worth $200,000 and not be overpriced.

But what matters is what the WORLD thinks is overpriced, and currently, it seems they think $300+ is overpriced.

Bitcoin's demand is a function of the price point it's at.

i don't believe this is the reason why average joe are not buying bitcoin

the reason are more to do with its instability(1200-200 that happened) and general security, about losing their coins too easy, for whatever reason

i say this because when there was the 1200 run up, many and many normal traders or even big noobs, were buying at prices like 400-600-800-1200 etc...without even thinking

[r0ach]

In the past four years, there's probably never been a safer time to hold Bitcoin than now.

Let's talk about that in a few days  

Ok, it's been a few days.

Next stop $400, although it will probably take months.

[jubalix]

halving can really have only a minimal effect, as it is priced in, being completely known.

I think what happens is over shoot just before, under shoot at time of, then goes up a few months later as the realization dawns there's just so much less BTC around.