Mining profits over the next six months...

[edric]

I've noticed recently that mining profits in Bitcoin have gone down.  They are still the same in USD, if not more, but slightly lower on a BTC basis.  I'm curious what people think will happen to mining profits over the next six months taking into account all of the fundamental developments affecting Bitcoin.  If someone is making 1 BTC a month today with their hash rate what do you think it will be in six months based on your projections?  I know there are a lot of variables and this is a tough question to answer but I'm still interested to see if anyone is willing to take a shot at it.  Thanks!

[notlist3d]

I've noticed recently that mining profits in Bitcoin have gone down.  They are still the same in USD, if not more, but slightly lower on a BTC basis.  I'm curious what people think will happen to mining profits over the next six months taking into account all of the fundamental developments affecting Bitcoin.  If someone is making 1 BTC a month today with their hash rate what do you think it will be in six months based on your projections?  I know there are a lot of variables and this is a tough question to answer but I'm still interested to see if anyone is willing to take a shot at it.  Thanks!

It is not easy to predict 6 month's away. In mining time this is a LONG LONG time.  We try to predict it weekly and even then there are surprises.

With difficulty it will go down in 6 months.  But how much no one can say for sure.  If we knew there would not be speculation.

[edric]

I've noticed recently that mining profits in Bitcoin have gone down.  They are still the same in USD, if not more, but slightly lower on a BTC basis.  I'm curious what people think will happen to mining profits over the next six months taking into account all of the fundamental developments affecting Bitcoin.  If someone is making 1 BTC a month today with their hash rate what do you think it will be in six months based on your projections?  I know there are a lot of variables and this is a tough question to answer but I'm still interested to see if anyone is willing to take a shot at it.  Thanks!

It is not easy to predict 6 month's away. In mining time this is a LONG LONG time.  We try to predict it weekly and even then there are surprises.

With difficulty it will go down in 6 months.  But how much no one can say for sure.  If we knew there would not be speculation.

If difficulty goes down does that mean miners make more rewards per day day per TH?  What is the correlation that miners need to worry about with difficulty?  Thanks!

[freedomno1]

I've noticed recently that mining profits in Bitcoin have gone down.  They are still the same in USD, if not more, but slightly lower on a BTC basis.  I'm curious what people think will happen to mining profits over the next six months taking into account all of the fundamental developments affecting Bitcoin.  If someone is making 1 BTC a month today with their hash rate what do you think it will be in six months based on your projections?  I know there are a lot of variables and this is a tough question to answer but I'm still interested to see if anyone is willing to take a shot at it.  Thanks!

It is not easy to predict 6 month's away. In mining time this is a LONG LONG time.  We try to predict it weekly and even then there are surprises.

With difficulty it will go down in 6 months.  But how much no one can say for sure.  If we knew there would not be speculation.

If difficulty goes down does that mean miners make more rewards per day day per TH?  What is the correlation that miners need to worry about with difficulty?  Thanks!

Assuming price remains constant, block discovery in pools remain consistent aka luck, then decreases in difficulty will result in the remaining network miners acquiring more blocks, and increased return per TH.

Of course that is until halving where block rewards decrease as well then by default it becomes an interesting period for observation.

[Amph]

I've noticed recently that mining profits in Bitcoin have gone down.  They are still the same in USD, if not more, but slightly lower on a BTC basis.  I'm curious what people think will happen to mining profits over the next six months taking into account all of the fundamental developments affecting Bitcoin.  If someone is making 1 BTC a month today with their hash rate what do you think it will be in six months based on your projections?  I know there are a lot of variables and this is a tough question to answer but I'm still interested to see if anyone is willing to take a shot at it.  Thanks!

It is not easy to predict 6 month's away. In mining time this is a LONG LONG time.  We try to predict it weekly and even then there are surprises.

With difficulty it will go down in 6 months.  But how much no one can say for sure.  If we knew there would not be speculation.

If difficulty goes down does that mean miners make more rewards per day day per TH?  What is the correlation that miners need to worry about with difficulty?  Thanks!

those that will not follow with the new chips that are more efficient are bound to drop the game, otherwise nothing will change, there will be more diff right, but this because there will be more efficiency too

those two parameters will remain constant

[notlist3d]

I've noticed recently that mining profits in Bitcoin have gone down.  They are still the same in USD, if not more, but slightly lower on a BTC basis.  I'm curious what people think will happen to mining profits over the next six months taking into account all of the fundamental developments affecting Bitcoin.  If someone is making 1 BTC a month today with their hash rate what do you think it will be in six months based on your projections?  I know there are a lot of variables and this is a tough question to answer but I'm still interested to see if anyone is willing to take a shot at it.  Thanks!

It is not easy to predict 6 month's away. In mining time this is a LONG LONG time.  We try to predict it weekly and even then there are surprises.

With difficulty it will go down in 6 months.  But how much no one can say for sure.  If we knew there would not be speculation.

If difficulty goes down does that mean miners make more rewards per day day per TH?  What is the correlation that miners need to worry about with difficulty?  Thanks!

those that will not follow with the new chips that are more efficient are bound to drop the game, otherwise nothing will change, there will be more diff right, but this because there will be more efficiency too

those two parameters will remain constant

Also we are looking at some miners that are ROI point after having.  This is a huge difference.  No matter how long we speculate no knows what it will happen.

I am a miner and always will be just a lot of "if's" that you cannot predict months away.

[Mickeyb]

I've noticed recently that mining profits in Bitcoin have gone down.  They are still the same in USD, if not more, but slightly lower on a BTC basis.  I'm curious what people think will happen to mining profits over the next six months taking into account all of the fundamental developments affecting Bitcoin.  If someone is making 1 BTC a month today with their hash rate what do you think it will be in six months based on your projections?  I know there are a lot of variables and this is a tough question to answer but I'm still interested to see if anyone is willing to take a shot at it.  Thanks!

It is not easy to predict 6 month's away. In mining time this is a LONG LONG time.  We try to predict it weekly and even then there are surprises.

With difficulty it will go down in 6 months.  But how much no one can say for sure.  If we knew there would not be speculation.

I agree. 6 months is a huge time frame in the mining world. Also we need to calculate the upcoming halving into the equation. How will the miners that are barely making their ROI react with the upcoming halving? Will they drop out of the game? It makes sense that they will if the price stays the same and reward halfs.

There are many many questions and many decisions that must be anticipated ahead of the time in the mining game.

[notlist3d]

I've noticed recently that mining profits in Bitcoin have gone down.  They are still the same in USD, if not more, but slightly lower on a BTC basis.  I'm curious what people think will happen to mining profits over the next six months taking into account all of the fundamental developments affecting Bitcoin.  If someone is making 1 BTC a month today with their hash rate what do you think it will be in six months based on your projections?  I know there are a lot of variables and this is a tough question to answer but I'm still interested to see if anyone is willing to take a shot at it.  Thanks!

It is not easy to predict 6 month's away. In mining time this is a LONG LONG time.  We try to predict it weekly and even then there are surprises.

With difficulty it will go down in 6 months.  But how much no one can say for sure.  If we knew there would not be speculation.

I agree. 6 months is a huge time frame in the mining world. Also we need to calculate the upcoming halving into the equation. How will the miners that are barely making their ROI react with the upcoming halving? Will they drop out of the game? It makes sense that they will if the price stays the same and reward halfs.

There are many many questions and many decisions that must be anticipated ahead of the time in the mining game.

Having is the big scary thing a lot don't think about.  We can hope that we get BTC to go up in value.  But 2x in value.... that might take a while.

I just am afraid what will happen at having.   And I could be afraid for nothing possibly for having someone comes out with a miner that efficiency is amazing and it does not make much of a difference.

[QuintLeo]

If difficulty goes down

 Barring a major Bitcoin price collapse, probability ZERO before the halfing, except perhaps on a "one adjustment" basis - then the next adjustment will go up a LOT.

 I suspect there will be a short-term drop after the halfing, unless bitcoin price goes up quite a bit between now and then, as the halfing will make a TON of older gear unprofitable for most folks in most locations. Even relatively recent units like the S5 and SP20 will get either UNprofitable, or very very LOW profitable, even if your electric is lower cost than average.

 I'd not bet on Bitcoin doubling in price before the halfing.
 50% jump in the month or so before the halfing I would not be supprised to see.


 I suspect that the "14/16nm full custom" chip generation will see the last significant increase in efficiency for a few years, once those come out and the initial rush to buy that hardware gets worked through, I suspect difficulty will go very close to flat for quite a while - similar to the first half of this year but more so and longer. *WHEN* that will happen is very much up in the air right now though - I'd guess end of 2016 might see the start of that relatively "flat" period, but that's strictly a guess.

[knowhow]

Technology improvements on the last years has advanced very fast,predict the next sixt months and the new equipments being developed is insane to even thing,sometime ago miner were at 2 ths max now it has around 5th and above it already,the protitable mining will occur easy again when bitcoin goes up,maybe the 500 dollars value would bring the solo hash stoped back to the road ,otherwise they would be kept ofline .

[notlist3d]

Technology improvements on the last years has advanced very fast,predict the next sixt months and the new equipments being developed is insane to even thing,sometime ago miner were at 2 ths max now it has around 5th and above it already,the protitable mining will occur easy again when bitcoin goes up,maybe the 500 dollars value would bring the solo hash stoped back to the road ,otherwise they would be kept ofline .

The biggest thing about gear 6 months from now I think is lower NM.  We will be closer to the having.  So I wonder how efficient we will be.

I think we will be surprised how efficient miners will be.  At 6 months from now I think not only will it be lower NM but a little more perfected then any announced (like LKETC). 


Guess we will see what happens.

[BLOCK_C]

I think the global will continue to group causing the revenue to drop over time.  If you look at Moore's law performance should double every 18 months at the cutting edge. We're just now getting close to that cutting edge (maybe another year or so and we'll be at the cutting edge) of a well developed chip running at between 14-20nm.  This is still a lot of room to improve on the current chips without having to go all the way to the lowest nm chips out there.  That being said even on Moore's law the network should be growing about 5% per month just on a technology basis.  The next gen chips just came out from the major players so I wouldn't be surprised to see 600P in 6 months or about a 30% drop in revenue spread out over that time frame.  This barring of course any large increase or decrease in BTC price.

[VirosaGITS]

I think the global will continue to group causing the revenue to drop over time.  If you look at Moore's law performance should double every 18 months at the cutting edge. We're just now getting close to that cutting edge (maybe another year or so and we'll be at the cutting edge) of a well developed chip running at between 14-20nm.  This is still a lot of room to improve on the current chips without having to go all the way to the lowest nm chips out there.  That being said even on Moore's law the network should be growing about 5% per month just on a technology basis.  The next gen chips just came out from the major players so I wouldn't be surprised to see 600P in 6 months or about a 30% drop in revenue spread out over that time frame.  This barring of course any large increase or decrease in BTC price.

That could make sense, but in the world of ASIC, cutting edge is usually trumped by cheap mass-produced. It's more profitable to make a lot of cheap ASIC running on 0.02$/kWh than making cutting edge ASIC which is several factor costlier than a few generation back and run it on anything available in the US (Not much cheaper than 0.05$/kWh anywhere, afaik)

So i understand that technology advancement will continue, i do not think it will account for 5% per month of growth overall.

[notlist3d]

I think the global will continue to group causing the revenue to drop over time.  If you look at Moore's law performance should double every 18 months at the cutting edge. We're just now getting close to that cutting edge (maybe another year or so and we'll be at the cutting edge) of a well developed chip running at between 14-20nm.  This is still a lot of room to improve on the current chips without having to go all the way to the lowest nm chips out there.  That being said even on Moore's law the network should be growing about 5% per month just on a technology basis.  The next gen chips just came out from the major players so I wouldn't be surprised to see 600P in 6 months or about a 30% drop in revenue spread out over that time frame.  This barring of course any large increase or decrease in BTC price.

Your jumping over many things.  First machines increase in efficiency so you could consider Moore's law in it I guess.   But running this new efficient gear means LESS electricity cost.  So you are making less and spending less on costs... so it should even out in perfect world which this isnt.

Also having is coming up it will effect mining more then any new miner.  It might hurt pretty bad.  All depends if price of BTC goes up.  It's just to far ahead to know what will happen.

[QuintLeo]

The biggest longer-term factor is that ASIC technology for Bitcoin is getty very very close to the current state-of-the-art - which means that "new generations" of ASIC won't be happening on an every year basis any more, past the final jump to full-custom 14/16NM that will probably happen next year, likely late in the year.

 I suspect 2017 will show the lowest diff increase rate and greatest stability of difficulty of all time for Bitcoin, after a wild ride the rest of 2015 and most or all of 2016.

 The next 6 (and 12 and probably 18ish) months in Bitcoin mining look to be "interesting times".


 P.S. Moore's Law itself seems to be mutating, as semi processes procede further into the region where quantum effects are a serious limit to progress. It's more like "double the transistor count every 3 years" now as opposed to the original 18-24 months ballpark.

[OgNasty]

The biggest longer-term factor is that ASIC technology for Bitcoin is getty very very close to the current state-of-the-art - which means that "new generations" of ASIC won't be happening on an every year basis any more, past the final jump to full-custom 14/16NM that will probably happen next year, likely late in the year.

 I suspect 2017 will show the lowest diff increase rate and greatest stability of difficulty of all time for Bitcoin, after a wild ride the rest of 2015 and most or all of 2016.

 The next 6 (and 12 and probably 18ish) months in Bitcoin mining look to be "interesting times".

Sounds like you think the price will remain stable?  What would happen to your 2017 prediction if the market rate hits $4,000 in 2016?

[QuintLeo]

The biggest longer-term factor is that ASIC technology for Bitcoin is getty very very close to the current state-of-the-art - which means that "new generations" of ASIC won't be happening on an every year basis any more, past the final jump to full-custom 14/16NM that will probably happen next year, likely late in the year.

 I suspect 2017 will show the lowest diff increase rate and greatest stability of difficulty of all time for Bitcoin, after a wild ride the rest of 2015 and most or all of 2016.

 The next 6 (and 12 and probably 18ish) months in Bitcoin mining look to be "interesting times".

Sounds like you think the price will remain stable?  What would happen to your 2017 prediction if the market rate hits $4,000 in 2016?

 I believe there will be a "bump" a little before the halfing, somewhat of a fallback after, and other than that only small bounces and a very gradual climb longterm.
 The only way I think this will change is if some major economic event happens that convinced folks to adopt Bitcoin en mass, but I don't see that being likely with the limitations of Bitcoin.

 $4000? I doubt we'll see that in the next 20 years, much less the next decade or sooner.
 $1000? Perhaps within a decade, but doubt that will happen again before the end of 2020.

[OgNasty]

$4000? I doubt we'll see that in the next 20 years, much less the next decade or sooner.
 $1000? Perhaps within a decade, but doubt that will happen again before the end of 2020.

Barring a catastrophic event for Bitcoin, I do not see how it could possibly be below $1,000 in 2020.  It will either be well above that price point, or it will be considered dead.  The market cap is currently too small for the stabilization theory.

[Amph]

The biggest longer-term factor is that ASIC technology for Bitcoin is getty very very close to the current state-of-the-art - which means that "new generations" of ASIC won't be happening on an every year basis any more, past the final jump to full-custom 14/16NM that will probably happen next year, likely late in the year.

 I suspect 2017 will show the lowest diff increase rate and greatest stability of difficulty of all time for Bitcoin, after a wild ride the rest of 2015 and most or all of 2016.

 The next 6 (and 12 and probably 18ish) months in Bitcoin mining look to be "interesting times".

Sounds like you think the price will remain stable?  What would happen to your 2017 prediction if the market rate hits $4,000 in 2016?

 $4000? I doubt we'll see that in the next 20 years, much less the next decade or sooner.
 $1000? Perhaps within a decade, but doubt that will happen again before the end of 2020.

the value of bitcoin is not very predictable, now can you tell me, that you were expecting the 1200 value(the last ath) to be reached in 2013? i guess no, no one was expecting it

1k or 4k, are nothing if there are the right demand behind it, we can hit that on the next halving quite easily

[VirosaGITS]

The biggest longer-term factor is that ASIC technology for Bitcoin is getty very very close to the current state-of-the-art - which means that "new generations" of ASIC won't be happening on an every year basis any more, past the final jump to full-custom 14/16NM that will probably happen next year, likely late in the year.

 I suspect 2017 will show the lowest diff increase rate and greatest stability of difficulty of all time for Bitcoin, after a wild ride the rest of 2015 and most or all of 2016.

 The next 6 (and 12 and probably 18ish) months in Bitcoin mining look to be "interesting times".

Sounds like you think the price will remain stable?  What would happen to your 2017 prediction if the market rate hits $4,000 in 2016?

 $4000? I doubt we'll see that in the next 20 years, much less the next decade or sooner.
 $1000? Perhaps within a decade, but doubt that will happen again before the end of 2020.

the value of bitcoin is very predictable, now can you tell me, that you were expecting the 1200 value(the last ath) to be reached in 2013? i guess no, no one was expecting it

1k or 4k, are nothing if there are the right demand behind it, we can hit that on the next halving quite easily

It never truly reached 1200, or 1000 or 600. It was false trade data ramping up the BTC value. The price value was based on false confidence, therefore it would be a fallacy to include the mt-gox portion of BTC history as a valid comparison.

We'll be lucky if we're at stable over 300$ by halving. 400$ sound doable with speculative value of BTC raising due to halving. 600$ would be a stretch. Trust is only built slowly.