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Author Topic: $13,000 bitcoins by the end of 2016? $120,000 by 2018? (golden ratio fractals)  (Read 13545 times)
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americanpegasus
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October 21, 2015, 03:33:28 AM
 #1

I'm curious as to your thoughts here.  So much speculation these days is so grounded in reality: "Will we hold above $270?  What about touching $230 again?  Will we see $400 again?"  
  
After reviewing the galactic archives it really does look a lot like 2012.  So let's just dream a little about the possible near-future that no one expects: a titanic rocketship to absurd levels that seem like god-damned delusions right now (just like $2 -> $1200 seemed absurd222 back in 2012).  Check out one TradingView user's wild speculation:  
  


Currently we have just finished a major market bull move (2-1200) and its subsequent bear move correction (1200-150). No new lows for 9 months. The bear market is over.

Now we are in a quiet, flat period of quiet. Quite similar to that of April 2012, not only in price action but more importantly in popular sentiment. Bubble fever is emotionally dead, people at Bitcoin0.10% meets and conferences no longer gush excitedly about financial success.

Fractal self-similarity shows that if this is indeed 2012 deja-vu, the future price path shall take us to $600 within 1 year (wave 1), $13000 within 2 years (wave 3) and possible wave 5 extensions after that.

Recall my previous Elliot Wave possibility of $120k.
 
  
[Please don't quote this large picture in any responses!]


credit for the italicized text and chart goes to
-Fontas  
  
Sauce: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/P8X2S1MW-Bitcoin-s-Future-Shape-13000-and-120k/

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premium_domainer
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October 21, 2015, 06:02:57 AM
 #2

Quit interesting but  Huh

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October 21, 2015, 06:19:00 AM
 #3

Quit interesting but  Huh

Quite*

Well I don't think it's possible but what was impossible before had already happened so, I don't know wether to believe in this speculation or not. What I amonly hoping is that and I think will happen anytime soon, bitcoin price will rise once again, might not be a rocket change but atleast there will be increament. Cheesy
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October 21, 2015, 06:27:09 AM
 #4

Maybe the values are a "bit" high. One has to realize that to maintain the same trend of price rise as back in the day, significantly more money needs to flow into bitcoin to make it possible. 120k seems so unlikely that I doubt it will ever happen. 13k is a different story, but let's first get over 2k shall we? Wink

Nice analysis though!
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October 21, 2015, 11:46:16 AM
 #5

Overly optimistic in my view. We cant' even stay at 270 right now. The past is no indication in bitcoin. Remember that the past 24 month long bear period has broken new grounds. Too many people bought in at $1000+. If and when we reach $1000, they will dump their bitcoins, we will go right back down to 200.

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October 21, 2015, 02:28:13 PM
 #6

Overly optimistic in my view. We cant' even stay at 270 right now. The past is no indication in bitcoin. Remember that the past 24 month long bear period has broken new grounds. Too many people bought in at $1000+. If and when we reach $1000, they will dump their bitcoins, we will go right back down to 200.

That group is a small percentage. Definitely not enough to reverse the next bubble storm. People are expecting a new ATH, not many will hold this long to break even. The ones that would, probably already sold. The next run up is going to surprise everyone.
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October 21, 2015, 02:33:32 PM
 #7

I doubt it but hey, I am sure it's possible lol.
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October 21, 2015, 03:01:43 PM
 #8

Overly optimistic in my view. We cant' even stay at 270 right now. The past is no indication in bitcoin. Remember that the past 24 month long bear period has broken new grounds. Too many people bought in at $1000+. If and when we reach $1000, they will dump their bitcoins, we will go right back down to 200.

No. When the price reach $1000, most of the people would think that their long awaited target reached and start to sell that may pull back some 10% to 20%. Usually we say that profit booking. A profit booking never drag back to the origin. But the new money in flow will make it to pass $1000 again.

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solid12345
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October 21, 2015, 03:02:36 PM
 #9


That group is a small percentage. Definitely not enough to reverse the next bubble storm. People are expecting a new ATH, not many will hold this long to break even. The ones that would, probably already sold. The next run up is going to surprise everyone.

What people never factor in is think about how many Bitcoin whales sold in the $800-$1,100 range in 2013. Now two years later Bitcoin has dropped 80% in price, along the way they captured all the cheap coins from the despaired users panicking over the price drops. They are now swimming in cash and bought back potentially 3-5x more coins than they had before and if this were injected right back into the economy, not only would it cause a bull rally but all the people who DID sell will come back again to buy back hoping to not make the same mistake twice.
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October 21, 2015, 03:05:19 PM
 #10


What people never factor in is think about how many Bitcoin whales sold in the $800-$1,100 range in 2013. Now two years later Bitcoin has dropped 80% in price, along the way they captured all the cheap coins from the despaired users panicking over the price drops.


I wonder how many could've sold at that price level. Probably not too many without turning the price to dust. There might be a fair few who simply sold and ran away. Life is a whole load more boring now than it was back then.

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October 21, 2015, 04:06:43 PM
 #11

...

I just wrote on my doubts on predicting the future on another thread just moments ago, LOL.

The math and even the price history behind Bitcoin both hint at major price moves ahead.  When?  Ahh, if anyone knew, they would have the keys to the Money Printing Machine.

Technical Analysis (and I would include fractals, phi, Elliot Waves, etc.) has a long and controversial history.  I know two investment guys who swear by it.  But, I have not seen convincing evidence that it works.  Yet many knowledgeable analysts love it and use it.  Also, the machines and HFT-ers use it in.

The Rewards:Risk ratios seem to in favor of holding Bitcoin.  As long as one does not risk "too much", and is patient, I see BTC as an excellent longer-term speculation.  But, it should be seen as that: speculation.
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October 21, 2015, 04:21:48 PM
 #12

Overly optimistic in my view. We cant' even stay at 270 right now. The past is no indication in bitcoin. Remember that the past 24 month long bear period has broken new grounds. Too many people bought in at $1000+. If and when we reach $1000, they will dump their bitcoins, we will go right back down to 200.

No. When the price reach $1000, most of the people would think that their long awaited target reached and start to sell that may pull back some 10% to 20%. Usually we say that profit booking. A profit booking never drag back to the origin. But the new money in flow will make it to pass $1000 again.
 
 
I can't imagine how awful it's going to be for the responsible ones who sell a significant portion or all of their coins at $1000 or even $2000.  Who knows where the top of the next movement is?

Account is back under control of the real AmericanPegasus.
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October 21, 2015, 05:38:41 PM
 #13

Overly optimistic in my view. We cant' even stay at 270 right now. The past is no indication in bitcoin. Remember that the past 24 month long bear period has broken new grounds. Too many people bought in at $1000+. If and when we reach $1000, they will dump their bitcoins, we will go right back down to 200.

No. When the price reach $1000, most of the people would think that their long awaited target reached and start to sell that may pull back some 10% to 20%. Usually we say that profit booking. A profit booking never drag back to the origin. But the new money in flow will make it to pass $1000 again.
 
  
I can't imagine how awful it's going to be for the responsible ones who sell a significant portion or all of their coins at $1000 or even $2000.  Who knows where the top of the next movement is?


A strategy like https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0 will prevent losing out by cashing out early.

Requires having good discipline, staying updated on the usual bitcoin channels and a plan like above.

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October 21, 2015, 06:36:08 PM
 #14

I doubt it but hey, I am sure it's possible lol.

there is too much dreaming going on here, everytime i see those thread i'm starting to think if op forget that we are at the same range of value since ages(this time it was longer than 2012, and it is not ended yet) literally

the fact that it is possible does not mean that it will happen, realistically speaking, a return to 1k would be a great result already, although i'm still hoping for 10k
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October 21, 2015, 06:39:38 PM
 #15

In most cases the Golden Ratio is yours for absolutely nothing. In this case it would a tad costly. Retaining the ability to feed and house yourself is probably more important to most people.

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October 21, 2015, 07:03:14 PM
 #16

Overly optimistic in my view. We cant' even stay at 270 right now. The past is no indication in bitcoin. Remember that the past 24 month long bear period has broken new grounds. Too many people bought in at $1000+. If and when we reach $1000, they will dump their bitcoins, we will go right back down to 200.

No. When the price reach $1000, most of the people would think that their long awaited target reached and start to sell that may pull back some 10% to 20%. Usually we say that profit booking. A profit booking never drag back to the origin. But the new money in flow will make it to pass $1000 again.
 
  
I can't imagine how awful it's going to be for the responsible ones who sell a significant portion or all of their coins at $1000 or even $2000.  Who knows where the top of the next movement is?

I was a bitcoin GPU miner back in 2011. I watched as the price hit an all time high of ~$31 that summer, then collapsed. I sold everything when bitcoin was in the low 30s in early 2013, thinking it couldn't possibly get much higher than the previous ATH. Within a matter of months, of course, the price was ~$1,200.

I'm not making the same mistake again.
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October 21, 2015, 07:10:52 PM
 #17

Overly optimistic in my view. We cant' even stay at 270 right now. The past is no indication in bitcoin. Remember that the past 24 month long bear period has broken new grounds. Too many people bought in at $1000+. If and when we reach $1000, they will dump their bitcoins, we will go right back down to 200.

No. When the price reach $1000, most of the people would think that their long awaited target reached and start to sell that may pull back some 10% to 20%. Usually we say that profit booking. A profit booking never drag back to the origin. But the new money in flow will make it to pass $1000 again.
 
  
I can't imagine how awful it's going to be for the responsible ones who sell a significant portion or all of their coins at $1000 or even $2000.  Who knows where the top of the next movement is?

I was a bitcoin GPU miner back in 2011. I watched as the price hit an all time high of ~$31 that summer, then collapsed. I sold everything when bitcoin was in the low 30s in early 2013, thinking it couldn't possibly get much higher than the previous ATH. Within a matter of months, of course, the price was ~$1,200.

I'm not making the same mistake again.

up to $40-50K, then?
I admit that it is developing slower than I initially thought.
The true breakout will happen if we get a wind of some major government actively sourcing miners or purchasing btc.
Could be China, Russia or US-I wouldn't be entirely surprised by any of these three.
In fact, I am surprised that a few consultants did not rec this already. After all, expenses would still be meager at this point ($400 mil for 10% of btc) and having 10% of BTC might come handy later on.
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October 21, 2015, 07:29:25 PM
 #18

I'm in this thing for it to go big or crash and burn. There is no middle ground for me to sell.

I have nerves of steel.


Or.......I am just very stupid.

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October 21, 2015, 07:29:54 PM
 #19

... and having 10% of BTC might come handy later on.
We know how dumb governments are...
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October 21, 2015, 07:39:53 PM
 #20

Feels like 2012 again, actually, with this flat prices and quiet move upwards. I really believe that those dudes who sold at ATH are now accumulating for the next run. The whole year is, I think, the greatest time to buy more seeing that it just stayed below 300 most of the time. I see the graphs and read the explanation, and I love it. Realistically speaking, there is a slim chance of this to happen, but hey! Everything is possible. Smiley

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