Bitcoin Forum

I'm curious as to your thoughts here.  So much speculation these days is so grounded in reality: "Will we hold above $270?  What about touching $230 again?  Will we see $400 again?"  
  
After reviewing the galactic archives it really does look a lot like 2012.  So let's just dream a little about the possible near-future that no one expects: a titanic rocketship to absurd levels that seem like god-damned delusions right now (just like $2 -> $1200 seemed absurd²²² back in 2012).  Check out one TradingView user's wild speculation:  
  

---

Currently we have just finished a major market bull move (2-1200) and its subsequent bear move correction (1200-150). No new lows for 9 months. The bear market is over.

Now we are in a quiet, flat period of quiet. Quite similar to that of April 2012, not only in price action but more importantly in popular sentiment. Bubble fever is emotionally dead, people at Bitcoin0.10% meets and conferences no longer gush excitedly about financial success.

Fractal self-similarity shows that if this is indeed 2012 deja-vu, the future price path shall take us to $600 within 1 year (wave 1), $13000 within 2 years (wave 3) and possible wave 5 extensions after that.

Recall my previous Elliot Wave possibility of $120k.  
  
[Please don't quote this large picture in any responses!]
https://i.imgur.com/zwhooTO.png

credit for the italicized text and chart goes to
-Fontas  
  
Sauce: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/P8X2S1MW-Bitcoin-s-Future-Shape-13000-and-120k/

Quit interesting but  ???

Quite*

Well I don't think it's possible but what was impossible before had already happened so, I don't know wether to believe in this speculation or not. What I amonly hoping is that and I think will happen anytime soon, bitcoin price will rise once again, might not be a rocket change but atleast there will be increament. :D

Maybe the values are a "bit" high. One has to realize that to maintain the same trend of price rise as back in the day, significantly more money needs to flow into bitcoin to make it possible. 120k seems so unlikely that I doubt it will ever happen. 13k is a different story, but let's first get over 2k shall we? ;)

Nice analysis though!

Overly optimistic in my view. We cant' even stay at 270 right now. The past is no indication in bitcoin. Remember that the past 24 month long bear period has broken new grounds. Too many people bought in at $1000+. If and when we reach $1000, they will dump their bitcoins, we will go right back down to 200.

That group is a small percentage. Definitely not enough to reverse the next bubble storm. People are expecting a new ATH, not many will hold this long to break even. The ones that would, probably already sold. The next run up is going to surprise everyone.

I doubt it but hey, I am sure it's possible lol.

No. When the price reach $1000, most of the people would think that their long awaited target reached and start to sell that may pull back some 10% to 20%. Usually we say that profit booking. A profit booking never drag back to the origin. But the new money in flow will make it to pass $1000 again.

What people never factor in is think about how many Bitcoin whales sold in the $800-$1,100 range in 2013. Now two years later Bitcoin has dropped 80% in price, along the way they captured all the cheap coins from the despaired users panicking over the price drops. They are now swimming in cash and bought back potentially 3-5x more coins than they had before and if this were injected right back into the economy, not only would it cause a bull rally but all the people who DID sell will come back again to buy back hoping to not make the same mistake twice.

I wonder how many could've sold at that price level. Probably not too many without turning the price to dust. There might be a fair few who simply sold and ran away. Life is a whole load more boring now than it was back then.

...

I just wrote on my doubts on predicting the future on another thread just moments ago, LOL.

The math and even the price history behind Bitcoin both hint at major price moves ahead.  When?  Ahh, if anyone knew, they would have the keys to the Money Printing Machine.

Technical Analysis (and I would include fractals, phi, Elliot Waves, etc.) has a long and controversial history.  I know two investment guys who swear by it.  But, I have not seen convincing evidence that it works.  Yet many knowledgeable analysts love it and use it.  Also, the machines and HFT-ers use it in.

The Rewards:Risk ratios seem to in favor of holding Bitcoin.  As long as one does not risk "too much", and is patient, I see BTC as an excellent longer-term speculation.  But, it should be seen as that: speculation.

 
 
I can't imagine how awful it's going to be for the responsible ones who sell a significant portion or all of their coins at $1000 or even $2000.  Who knows where the top of the next movement is?

A strategy like https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0) will prevent losing out by cashing out early.

Requires having good discipline, staying updated on the usual bitcoin channels and a plan like above.

there is too much dreaming going on here, everytime i see those thread i'm starting to think if op forget that we are at the same range of value since ages(this time it was longer than 2012, and it is not ended yet) literally

the fact that it is possible does not mean that it will happen, realistically speaking, a return to 1k would be a great result already, although i'm still hoping for 10k

In most cases the Golden Ratio is yours for absolutely nothing. In this case it would a tad costly. Retaining the ability to feed and house yourself is probably more important to most people.

I was a bitcoin GPU miner back in 2011. I watched as the price hit an all time high of ~$31 that summer, then collapsed. I sold everything when bitcoin was in the low 30s in early 2013, thinking it couldn't possibly get much higher than the previous ATH. Within a matter of months, of course, the price was ~$1,200.

I'm not making the same mistake again.

up to $40-50K, then?
I admit that it is developing slower than I initially thought.
The true breakout will happen if we get a wind of some major government actively sourcing miners or purchasing btc.
Could be China, Russia or US-I wouldn't be entirely surprised by any of these three.
In fact, I am surprised that a few consultants did not rec this already. After all, expenses would still be meager at this point ($400 mil for 10% of btc) and having 10% of BTC might come handy later on.

I'm in this thing for it to go big or crash and burn. There is no middle ground for me to sell.

I have nerves of steel.


Or.......I am just very stupid.

We know how dumb governments are... (https://bitcointalk.org/topics/life/how-one-family-went-bankrupt-spending-100000-beanie-babies)
http://s14.postimg.org/x850rbse9/Capture.png

Feels like 2012 again, actually, with this flat prices and quiet move upwards. I really believe that those dudes who sold at ATH are now accumulating for the next run. The whole year is, I think, the greatest time to buy more seeing that it just stayed below 300 most of the time. I see the graphs and read the explanation, and I love it. Realistically speaking, there is a slim chance of this to happen, but hey! Everything is possible. :)

IMO by 2030 there is a slim chance this won't happen.

Question is.. are your balls made of steel or balasa wood?

Winter is coming John snow.

It is not going to happen.  I really wish it would.  But just no.  I am hoping for more realistically of $500 dollars per coin at the end of 2016.  Maybe $800 dollars per coin at the end of 2018.  You never know really but that seems more realistic than the projected 120,000 per coin.

Mine are made of steel, that I'm sure of.

If in case it does happen within the next 5 years, I don't see a reason why would I sell anything right now. I'm a believer yes, but not delusional as others may seem to be. Realistically, we wouldn't be able to reach that $13000 in just a year. We can though, if hyperinflation comes to play.

All it will take is for people to have faith in BTC as a store of value and move some from gold to BTC and boom.

Nah, places to use bitcoins too is needed for this rocket to take off. If bitcoin is only for storage of value, then it would only be suitable for risk takers and not average people. ;)

Yes, exactly my thought! What I have invested and what I have in my cold storage will stay there, either until we don't die or until we don't make it big like OP has suggested in his opening post. No other option remains for me. Simple as that!

yeah, there is Silbert's video interview out there where he posits that bitcoin price will go up 100 fold if just 5% of current gold value (7tril) transfers to bitcoin, nothing else required.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOtgNhmNRm4

Bitcoin is not gold or housing or whatever other stable type of investment.  Its all or nothing you will see $10k by 2020 or it will be worhtless, its probably 50/50.  Those of us who see the promise are in those who dont are the many and are out.

As I just posted on Facebook,

The best way to understand Bitcoin and Monero, and understand why they're important, is to try and reinvent them yourself. 

It's easy, right?  For bitcoin, just create digital money that no one person can control or counterfeit (decentralized), and that can be sent instantly across the world. 

Monero's just a little tougher.  Do all of the above, but ensure no one can track any of the transactions and no one can tell how much money anyone else has.   
 
These problems might sound simple on the surface, but the mathematics and computer science to do them weren't invented until 2008 (for bitcoin) and 2014 (for monero).  They are so much better than what we are using now, that it's not a question of 'if'  we'll move to these technologies as new world standards for money - it's a question of 'when'.

If you're curious about the "solutions" to these problems, I've included links to the white papers which describe the solutions.  Don't feel bad if they're a little over your head.

https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf     
 
https://cryptonote.org/whitepaper.pdf

Great post

What is your definition of worthless? 50 USD is still worth something and I don't ever see it go back there.. So 50% to become worthless is quite the statement..

Also, I don't see it as an all or nothing type of price change that is going to happen. We will probably see spikes, but the trend line will be going up slowly imo.

I'm definitely agreeing with the possibility of 10k$+ price, it's definitely a realistic target. 100k$+... Maybe after 2020. But it would need a lot of money flawing in to reach that price obviously and I don't know if governments will let it happen.

What do governments wanna do about it? Prohibit it? This never worked out in the past.If the masses should be of the opnion that actual financial system is screwed up they will find ways to put money in Bitcoin if they believe that this is the best alternative or choice.

In 5 years yes, that can be reached seeing that investors and banks alike are eyeing bitcoin and pouring some nice amount of money in bitcoin. Take also in account that people who are interested in bitcoin would likely buy some, helping the slow surge forward.

What makes you think that we'll be able to reach $100K+ after 2020?? That's only possible if there are billions of dollars being pumped into Bitcoin by institutional investors. If you said $10K within 10 years, that might be somewhat realistic. $100K simply isn't.

 
  
One of the greatest flaws in the human brain is the inability to estimate the effects of the exponential function.  It is especially damning when that human finds himself inside of an exponential movement and needs to take action based on their estimation of some future value.  
  
It doesn't seem that the "wheat on the squares of a chessboard" would grow so fast either, but it does.  (I am of course referring to taking one grain of wheat and doubling it for every square on a chessboard.)
  
1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256.  
  
"My God!" screams one researcher.  "It's value is going to be titanic soon!  It'll soon eclipse 100k and keep going to absurd values!"    
  
"What are you going on about?" another asks.  "That's mighty impressive it increased so fast from 1 to 512 but look - we're nine steps in and only at 512.  Perhaps we'll hit 10k and 100k eventually but don't be daft - it will take a while."  
  
Meanwhile, the values continue to rise at an exponential pace.  
  
1024, 2048, 4096, 8192, 16384  
  
"Oh wow," the first remarks.  "Maybe you're right.  In just five steps it's gone up past ten thousand."  
  
And the exponential function continues.  
  
32768, 65536, 131072.  
  
It took nine whole steps to get to 512 in the first place, but only eight more after that to surpass 100,000.  This is the power of exponential functions - they move much much faster than you think.  After this the numbers move even faster - all the way up until there physically isn't any space left for them to grow.  After we broach 100,000 we find that millions and billions aren't far behind.  
 

I don't know about ring signatures and Monero but to be correct all of the technology that went into creating Bitcoin was available way before 2008. The genius of Satoshi was to put them all together!

The CryptoNote wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CryptoNote#Origins) page has an accurate[1] summarized timeline of these technologies:


[1] although Cryptonote may have been cooking since 2012 or before, there is no proof the first public CN coin (Bytecoin) was launched prior to Q4/2013.

 
 
Yes, yes, you guys.  These technologies were slow evolutions of mathematics over the 20th and 21st century (the result of many astounding minds working on the problems) which culminated in these achievements.  However, sometimes for the sake of a statement's simplicity and elegance we have to leave out some details. 

 
For now the statement is true.  Humans can only discover the rules of their universe and use them to transfer energy into different forms.  
  
In time, the strange principles of quantum mechanics and other yet-undiscovered sub-atomic level phenomena may see that statement invalidated.  
  
Personally, I predict that we will eventually realize that the idea of nothing is just as absurd as infinity.  It can't exist in any sensical system.  I wildly speculate that perhaps there is no such thing as 'nothing' in our universe, only smaller and stranger quantities of energy. (yes, I know what the planck length is - please don't lecture me; many learned men also knew of the universal aether at one point too).  

I like the cut of your jib, OP.

I think that nothing (the null set) has to exist. Obviously discussing something as abstract as nothing is difficult without implying that nothing is something. Max Tegmark speculates that anything can exist mathematically exists physically. There are proofs that show how you can bootstrap all of mathematics from the null set. It makes sense in a weird way to me. If nothing exists then it exists outside the rules of physics (but not of logic) thus anything that can happen, does happen, and can be birthed by this nothing, so long as it's self consistent.

 
  
Agreed, just like infinity.  Infinity can exist by the rules of logic, but I propose not by the rules of physics.  
  
This is why I don't believe in the "emptiness of space".  It also is another possible explanation for the 'missing' matter in the universe.  That empty space isn't so empty; it's just filled to the brim with something so much smaller than we can comprehend at the moment... perhaps this is even the answer to the Fermi Paradox itself: http://www.accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html  
  
In any case, we are getting slightly off topic.  Let's slowly try to return to dreams mocking the Boggleheads from our 37-story yachts.

Sounds good to me. BTW I noticed that when you click play on that Fontas trading view link - we are totally following the predicted ghost lines.

 
 
Fucking fractals, man.  If (always an if) our large flat region does end up corresponding to that flat region in the comparative section, don't underestimate the titanic moves ahead of us - we may even see the fruition of sgbett's insane PID controller moves (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=800330.0) where the future of bitcoin price isn't a slow and steady exponential rise up... but an exponential rise until we hit a certain tipping point and then the entire world pours into bitcoin (and hopefully Monero by extension) in a techno-mania that makes the tulip bubble look like a bump on the road. 
 
It seems silly now, but when you start hearing about everyone around you getting rich, buying new houses, buying new cars... all because they bought this little thing called 'bitcoins' then don't underestimate the fiat exit rush that may happen.  The scary part is that bitcoin isn't anywhere *near* ready for that kind of volume or interest.

Ah yeah, the blocksize problem. I wonder when it will be solved  ::)

Yeah, I can completely agree with this... until utility companies, grocery stores, and other companies who provide necessities to people who go about day by day/paycheck to paycheck, there won't be a price above $5,000 IMO... there has to be an incentive for more people to get into bitcoin for this to be even considered I would think.  When the price steadily increased throughout 2012-2013, there were more and more people being introduced to bitcoin that people felt the need to invest... that's what ultimately helped drive the price up (not to mention Gox; but that's another story).

I just can't see how $10K levels could be reached if this hasn't happened... but like everyone else says, anything could happen in the world of bitcoin :)

It came true, just like the chart predicted.... Now we are waiting for the next major vertical move.
 

I think that it is not coming...as simple as this

What's simple is the fact taht Bitcoin is only 6 billion dollars in marketcap, and there are tons of trillions of money in cash, real state, stocks, oil, metals... all searching to get into other places to get safe for when the shit hits the fan really soon, and Bitcoin is the best way to have this money outside of regulators and parasites.

I think what is forgotten is that when Bitcoin was at $2 it was cheap to get in for the average joe. Even at a couple hundred many people could have money to spare. But when your talking thousands for just one coins it scares people away (even if you can buy fractually).

Someone is more likely to say screw it let me throw in $20 when that gets you 10 coins, but not when it gets you .001 coin

Then people need to start thinking in Bits, not in whole Bitcoins. 
 
If they want to own something cheap and risky, Monero's are only 50 cents each, but you don't see people chomping to buy tons of those yet, do you?  That's because it's slightly harder to own Monero vs Bitcoin.  To buy Bitcoin it's as easy as it has ever been - download one of several reputable apps and connect with one of several reputable exchanges. 
 
The easier something is, the less opportunity is there. 

It is enjoyable to read these optimistic predictions about the future bitcoin price, but it is just speculation without solid basis, especially when most serious traders know that technical analysis is nothing but a series of superstitions and assumptions based on erroneous calculations full of subjectivity. But the worst thing is to believe that previous market behavior will be repeated in the future, when it is well known that it never occurs with certainty in markets.

Markets have completely tanked in the last two months... bitcoin has not exploded, with the coming halving and the tanking markets the current bitcoin price is shocking and makes everyone pause....... what is happening that we cannot see, because something is keeping the price down, and it may be a long term trend.....

The fucked up part is this one actually came true. 
 
I think many people are totally missing that this guy accurately predicted Bitcoin's rise to $500 out of nowhere and the subsequent crash. 
 
What will you say if he's right about the next move up too?

---OR-- (but hoping not to be overly optimistic) the spring could be tightening as whales are buying up weak hands worried about the 'forking'.   This could be the perfect storm, building tension to send it to the moon,,, but who knows.  You buy your ticket, you take your chances.  Good luck to all.

No this is not possible! We can talk about double or triple price increase but everything above needs some serious money. This is obvious day dream.
Don't forget Bitcoin has already super price!

This far to high in my opinion. We are now not even in the thousands but still in the hundreds. Lets get to the thousand before we start talking about $13,000 and $120,000. 

...

It may be that Bitcoin's next big price move up will be in response to an actual financial crisis, which many observers see coming.

For example is Europe decides to impose capital controls, that would be very damaging not only to them, but would likely be the catalyst for a huge move up in BTC price.  Any loss of confidence in currencies would likely do the same, create the conditions for a truly majestic move up in BTC.  If governments overreact to any problems (by printing, capital controls, etc.), that would likely do it as well.

Lots could go wrong in the world, bad things happening would likely lift the price of BTC.

If the price of bitcoin rises to $13,000 by the end of 2016, most people in this forum will be quite happy.

it's not only possible, it's inevitable.  

If bitcoin catches on, since there's only 21 million coins, not everyone will be able to afford a full bitcoin. 1 bitcoin has to be an outrageous amount of money, too much for most persons to even afford. Otherwise we would have a paradox.  

You can't have 7 billion people each holding 1 bitcoin or even more than 1 bitcoin and at the same time having only 21 million bitcoin. Since we know 21 million is a hard limit, if bitcoin becomes popular it will be insanely expensive. So expensive that most people can only afford a few mills (1/1000th of a bitcoin) and some people might not even be able to afford that.

There are only two options:

1) Bitcoin catches on and becomes widely used around the world (it seems like this is in fact happening, although it will take a few more years to really catch on). And therefore bitcoin will become insanely expensive.  

2) Bitcoin will remain a nerd-club only permanently and the mainstream will only use fiat (or perhaps a different crypto, but for some reason not bitcoin). In this case the price will stabilize at best, and decrease at worst. I find this a very unlikely outcome, but it's possible.   

Remember that 20 years ago nobody even knew they wanted a mobile phone, common arguments were: I already have a phone at home or I don't want people to constantly bother me if i am going out/at work.

And the same thing with computers and the internet and the washing machine. You see the pattern?

People don't know they want it, but they want it, and once the realization kicks in, they will race to buy them.

I agree with your points except that the 'them' in your quote could mean Litecoin, Ethereum, Lisk, Google Coin, Federal Reserve Coin, etc...

While the prediction of all time highs is exciting, could we also have the prediction for the lows in between so that I know when to buy before selling at the high poiints?  ;D ;D

Sure, I never claimed Bitcoin is the only one, I just think it's the most likely candidate, but it's possible that another coin gets the favor of the masses. I personally doubt it though.

The low level of 'profits' will be the interesting thing to witness on this next uptrend where people (chumps) sell for peanuts before realizing the ultimate end-goal and high - and so on. Selling a few coins for whatever profit (say, $1hun-200) on the way up will just be an lol. But, I get it, other parts of the world need that extra cash in their own right just to live. Yet they could live way larger if they could hold on.

Your not the only one, who has predicted this sort of move. Google Cliff High Webot. The Webot called the last 200-400 run up, and it calling for 600+ BTC. Its predicted a big move for BTC, and Silver in tandem now. It has something to do with the economy, and what the Fed has done.  Webot talks about years in the future, and its all good for BTC, and it mentioned Etheruem doing well also. Pretty cool.. Here's the guys twitter, he sometimes post nuggets on there.

https://twitter.com/clif_high

When are you gonna sell?

This would be a good thing for the people that want to sell their coins and make money but we have to be realistic here. This is not going to happen the difference between the price now and what you predict is just to big to be true.

I think the price will rise 60% in the next 20 years. So in 2020, it will be 6 times present value. In 2030, it will be 720 times present value, or 280k.

I don't think so. The fast majority will have sold long before it reaches to any of those levels.

The ATH around ~1200$ is the perfect bear trap area, many will just be staring in disbelief to the seemingly unstoppable rising bitcoin price (because if it happens it will likely be because of some fundamental change in how Bitcoin is perceived). All it needs is a spark, any spark.

On the stock market:
AAPL lost 50bil in market cap in 48hr
FB gained 24bil in 24hr
AMZN gained 32bil (in after-hours just now).

Bitcoin's market cap is just 6.5 bil, it is absolutely positively miniscule right now.
Those who think that large numbers are unattainable did not really think about it.
Is it 100%? No, but the fact that Larry Summers joined DCG today tells you something.

People will move into bitcoin once it would be easy to do (either through ETF or better wallets), and they will move en masse.
The absolute minimum for a smallish asset class is 1tril or about 50K/btc. Gold is a small asset class and it is 8 tril.

I think the $13000 can be reached in 2026. If it is reached by the end of this year, the price will be $400 next year.

No this is just not going to happen this year. We are not even in the thousands and people expect the price to be $13,000 this year that is just not realistic at all.
We have to be realistic here and focus on what the price really can be at the end of 2016.

If there is any sort of papa bear situation in the markets.. Bitcoin's new highs will be insane.

I wish this was stickied everywhere humanly possible. It constantly fries my mind how little perspective people here have.

miners have doing maths for you : not less than 5000 USD in 2030.


http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img923/3784/qyibDt.jpg

source : https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester/status/727105702775390208

it make sense, just double the value for each halving, 800 for this halving, 1600 for 2020, 3200 for 2024, and 6400 for 2028, now round it up to 5000-6000 and you have their estimate...

This is not happening in 2016 we are not even at $1000 so I am sure that $13,000 is not happening. And $120,000 in 2018 is also not happening it just is to unrealistic.
We have to be real here and focus on the real things speculating about these numbers is not going to help us.

I think 10% of the predicted price could be reached if many people will use the bitcoin this year and in the future.

Only the real usage can increase the value of bitcoin. If it is just used in trading, the price will not be high.

lolz, I recall January 2013, btc at $10, flash forward to april 2013, omgz flash up to $260 and settle around $120, so don't be too surprised when it touches near $10k this year, its more possible than you realize.

That was special times. In April there was Cyprus financial crisis. So the price sky rocket. We do not have that problem now.

but we have more good news that are coming, halving alone is stronger than cyprus thing, plus segwit, plus capacity issue to be solved at least partially or solution are going to be implemented

other good news like steam accepting bitcoin, europe country accepting bitcoin for sanitary business etc...

And then suddenly wink ETF goes online. Hopium is strong in bitcoin land. Currently it seems there are too many bagholders looking to dump at higher prices and get reach. I would say we are not going to such high numbers anytime soon if at all.

what was impossible before had already happened ;)
I want to believe in this speculation! bitcoin price will rise once again, might not be a rocket change but at least there will be increment

The value of the Bitcoin is now almost at $500, but for it to be $13,000 at the end of 2016 is just ridiculous and not happening. We have to stay realistic and that is just not even close to being realistic. 

i must agree with you this is just to much even in my high hopes i never said it would come to this 13k is just little big to off the pase
my higher hope was to be around 3-3.5K but is 4 time higher

but its not wrong to speculate

You see indeed that Bitcoin is getting more popular and that is perfect for the Bitcoin but you have also to know that there will be more people that is going to have some profit.
But gold will be still a strong currency and that is perfect but it is really hard to predict.

So you have to take the risks if you are going to sell it and that is the problem.

I think it is possible for the price to be $1200 by the end of 2016. But for $13,000, it is not very possible.

Over 2000$ by the end of 2016 is possible, 5000$ 2017-2018...10K$ is only a dream

There are clear similarities in the OP's predicted chart course and what has actually played out in reality since the prediction was made.
Pay attention!!

if you're being realistic, it's only logical to conclude bitcoin can not be this cheap forever.

21 million bitcoin

7.4 billion people

less then 0.003 bitcoin per person.

do the math yourself.

$400 per bitcoin is way too cheap.

like, 100~10,000 times too cheap. (depending on a lot of unknown factors, but either way, it's WAY too cheap).

The only realistic prediction is that in the next couple of years bitcoin will increase in price by at LEAST 100 times.

there's no other way. This is not just wishful thinking, it's math.


yes because the OP chart had the right idea all along.

predictions like these are never 100% matches, but it's about the general idea, and that is quite spot on.

Those people saying $1000 is delusional are delusional themselves if they think it will be $600 for the next couple of years. That's just bloody ridiculous and impossible. As if millions of people will have the chance to accumulate infinite amounts of bitcoin for the cheap cheap price of $600 while the supply of bitcoin is not only finite, but VERY limited and about to become even MORE limited than it already is.

God some people are such idiots.

Bitcoin will not reach all the inhabitants of the planet, sure the more people get in the more it has value, but you have to take out al the old, the babies, the illeterate, thos who don't use internet, it's a big portion of those who live on this planet.
At best there are 500 Million potential bitcoin users all over the world, 21000000/500000000=0.042 BTC per user a realistic estimation based on this will be a price of bitcoin around the $3000-5000 in the coming years, but it's not going to happen overnight, it will take some time and some ups and downs.
Also don't forget competition from other cryptos that may get a good prtion of the users who will find bitcoin too hard to get and too expensive.

Of course your assumptions are based on "if everything stays as it is"---

You are neglecting to consider the possibility of capital flows into bitcoin from other assets.

For example if bitcoin took 1% of gold's value.. or 1% of FX market.. or black market etc. etc. That would increase your base value by some.

those 500 million people own like 80%~90% of the global wealth. So your calculations are invalid

and on top of that like the posters above me mentioned, there's also other things to consider.

Bitcoin as a store of wealth taking a large cut of the gold/silver market, even if it would take 1~10% of the gold market it would increase by 10 to 100 times.

Remittance market would add quite a bit of value as well

so many other things.

bitcoin is not just a currency.

Indeed, a lot of people forget that we don't necessarily need mainstream adoption to reach moon type of price, we only need a couple of whales figuring out the fact that Bitcoin is the ultimate store of value and the best way to keep your wealth out of governments that want to ruin your hard earned money with ridiculous taxes. Once they realize this, trillions of dollars will start flocking into the ecosystem. So stop waiting for mass adoption, we don't really need this, we just need some whales to wake the fuck up and move their millions over here with the winning team.

I don't believe in $100,000 per bitcoin only because I find it hard to fathom. Imagine what state the world must be in for that to happen.

In saying that, I can't help but to not see it happening because it is so far detached from the current reality, YET that may just be the very reason why it could actually happen.

It really is not out of the realm of possibility.

There are plenty of potential storms on the horizon and it may only take a rogue large multinational or government anticipating one to trigger a crypto arms race.

Here are a couple worries:

Pension fund crisis due to ZIRP - many US funds are massively underwater; they made assumptions on future growth (eg 7.5%) based on past performance.

Financial Institution bankruptcy ala Lehmann Brothers, possibly beginning in Euro Area - In a NIRP environment banks die a slow death, some still saddled with toxic derivatives and are unable to turn profits from existing business avenues. Demand has dried up and Basel 3 requirements bite.

Rapid, unstable devaluing of Chinese Yuan - a country cannot outrun the Impossible Trinity (open capital account, independent monetary policy and pegged currency). A devaluation is the least worst option for a heavily levered and indebted Chinese economy.

Bond market implosion - it is the trade that the majority think can never blow up, but a market led rise in interest rates or a loss in confidence of government would turn it into a multi trillion dollar bloodbath.

Rapid global expansion of debt - there was no real austerity, just a transfer of debt from private (see:banks) to public (government) balance sheets. Even the IMF recently wrote that austerity does not work. In any case China by itself has added 21 trillion in debt in 8 years, part of global 57 trillion attempted reflation.

Japan - even when the government gave the people free monetary coupons with an expiry date, many people did not redeem them, such is their ingrained mentality.


They possibilities may be at long odds and continue to be only a possibility but I think if a crisis hits it will be a big one. And there are not too many places that will be safe; even gold and bitcoin will likely get sucked down by the initial weight of any crash (as people sell what they can, not what they want, when cash is short). But, especially if the crisis is in government, fleeing money will be looking to alternate asset classes.

Big question is, who will get first mover advantage by being the first multinational company or government to stockpile some bitcoin?

The best sustainable price bitcoin could reach in my calculations is in the ballpark of $10,000,000 (measured in current day dollars)

anything above that is manipulated

but that's not even saying that it is impossible to reach higher numbers than that, for similar reasons as why the stock market is inflated right now.

Say lots of large pension funds and insurance companies and stuff like that invest in bitcoin, and they also think bitcoin will rise 10x a year every year forever (which is of course not possible, but those guys are so far detached from reality that they think that just because something rises 10x in one year it will rise 10x every year until infinity).

But obviously those guys are too big too fail, and to avoid risking them to fail, governments will actually bail out bitcoin, so that those large funds don't collapse because of their bad predictions. And thus bitcoin will be pumped like the stock markets are right now.

That way, bitcoin could even reach $100,000,000 or even a billion per coin.

Obviously, such a price would not be sustainable at all, so it would eventually collapse if such a thing were to happen, but it's possible that it will happen.

I don't consider it very likely, but then again, those large financial institutions and the governments have shown us that they don't apply any logic whatsoever to economies, and they have basically infinite amounts of money, so who knows.

Anyway, the maximum sustainable price i think is around $10,000,000 although i doubt we would reach that high.

$1,000,000 though seems pretty likely in the long run, and $100,000 is inevitable.

Ahhhhh yis, Bitcoin porn FTW!

I think the title should be changed to  "$1,300 bitcoins by the end of 2016?  $12,000 by 2018?". That is more achievable.

no

i am not even going to explain again, just read the thread.

That price is way to high and to good to be true so it will not happen this year. If that is going to happen I would be in shock but I like staying realistic and don not give my hopes up for nothing.

don't confuse ignorance for realism

You are right. I think the price could be $1000 by the end of the year. The price could be $5000 by 2018.

I can happen but the be honest I do not see the price being that high right now. The price in 2016 is not going to be any where near the thousand maybe in 2018 the chance is bigger.

anything can happen in question of price we can only speculate on what will be outcome on it
my estimate is that is will be around 1000 after halving and by end of this year might go higher but i didnt find anything to support this
i just hope that price will remain at this point if thing go wrong

One or two months after halving, the price could be around $800. the $1000 price is for the year end.

That could probably the decent prediction for the price of bitcoin and for saying it well reach to 13,000$ and up?? Well thats totally crazy wild guess their so such history that bitcoin go more up for that price the only higher price for bitcoin is around 1k$+ and up and surely the decent price for speculating it is 800-1k$ and thats probably the best predictii. For halving event incoming price prediction.

I was wondering if anyone can help me. I am new to this and also this forum and cannot locate the start a new top button

Norton deleted my wallet and after several hours with a technician online we fixed that problem.
I have managed to download the wallet again - it is sinc and working fine.
Can you explain how I now insert my .bat backup file into the inception folder? I have a .bat file in there called blk0001.dat in the folder- do I rename my backup file to the same name and overwrite it or just add it to the folder so there are two folders? and then open the wallet again?
I really appreciate your help with this - I have a lot of coins

We can still get there on time. If enough money start flocking in in fear of missing out we can be at 5 figures since the rise would be meteoric. Of course it's hard and 1000 will still be a success anyway.

this chart was made 9 months ago, but look at how accurate it still is.

all the naysayers really need to wake up if they don't want to miss out on this rally, because it will happen.

even if it doesnt happen in this rally, it will happen soon.

its gonna happen this year for sure
will it be now on halving or few month later i dont think that matter for now

That price is to high so I do not think that the price is going to be so high this year. The chances of that happening will be higher after a couple of years but |I do not know when exactly.

Some experts have speculated that Bitcoin will hit $10000 in a few years by 2020.
So save 2 a month and you will be a rich man - All the best

That would really be something, I pray something like this could come true.

I think that the chance is way to small for something like that to happen I think that in the future the chance will be allot bigger then now so we will just have to wait it out.

The time scale is not right. If we increaase it by five times, so, 2020 for $13,000, and 2026 for $120,000. It might be possible.

people are still so negative even with the facts right in front of them

oh well, it's their loss. I have been ready for a long time.

we all are its time for gathering
in mater of days all will be like firework i hope with no surprises

We do not want fireworks. We already had the fireworks and the price is dropping at the moment. Hope not too low.

It was always going to do this. It was never going to cause a problem. If you look around most people expected the price to rise.
The simplest from of supply and demand is.. if you halve the supply, then the price will automatically double.
It doesn't happen overnight.. but it is beginning to get priced in now.
I expect it will more than simple double.
Also it depends when you take as your starting point.
$220 was roughly a solid bottom. It has more than tripled since then. And is on it's way to quadrupling.

I expect the price to rise, but not so dramatic. 10% of the price suggested by the OP is more reasonable.

For me its impossible to happen its a huge amount of bitcoin 13k value in the end of 2016. for my speculation this the end of this year the price will reduce i think the price will stay back to 600-700 value i am not sure but this is my speculation.. but i have something feelings that the price will goes back to below 300 value just the same happen in old block halving history. also 120,ooo on 2018 i don't believe that it will happen in the future,..

Just like if Bitcoin is recovering from a crash to $2, the reasonable top is $60 - not $1200. 
 
Sadly the universe tends to be less rational than we would like, by orders of magnitude. 
 
That being said, this chart (which has been eerily accurate until now, with only a slight variance in the time span) predicts this rise to hit around $1000 and then go for a horrific crash down to the $300 to $400 range before the real moon bubble begins.

That is right. The price will be at most $1500 this year. If it is $13,000, there is a very big bubble, it will burst.

speculation and prediction here are welcome after all this is speculation tread.
OP state his opinion on this and most here are we need to wait little more then we will see what will be after halving

This can only happen when the market makers decide to make it happen. They can once they hold enough of the btc and we all know there are a few higher up who are most definitely helping this market move.
13k though by the end of this year is unlikely.

But the prediction on the price is still impossible to achieve. The op posted last year and things change drastically that we didnt even expect.

I can safely say the prediction is impossible. but I will buy some bitcoin just in case the price rises to $13000 this year.

I think if you want to buy bitcoin in the hope that the bitcoin price will be $13,000 later this year, you will be disappointed.

I read a reputable source that said that Bitcoin would rise further in the second half of the year. . . .

I posted this chart, admittedly not my own, in October of last year.  And for the past 8 months it has been the most eerily accurate price predictor of Bitcoin on this entire site. 
 
Now - it next predicts that since we have nearly touched $1000 we crash to $300 - as in, before end of July most likely.  Yes, right after the halving.  Yes I know that doesn't make any fucking sense.  And then it predicts a slowly swell followed by a vertical climb to five digits.  I mean, trade however you want. 
 
https://i.imgur.com/BRmlGT5.jpg 
 
You are responsible for your own decisions and this topic is for entertainment purposes only - nothing here should be construed as financial advice.  But if it *does* crash to $300?  Then holy shit, you better buckle up because we both know what's coming in/on 2017.

price may rise into the halving on a lot of hype and then it could see a big dump. Price lives in the real world of traders navigating through complex systems. Plus we need to see if miners continue to feel incentivized.

I dont think i could imagine bitcoin crashing down to $300 now because if it did im sure lots of people would buy all they could at that price since it seems so cheap now. I know i for sure will be loading up if price does crash down that low. Only problem would be if it continues to crash lower than that. Panic may well in-sue and drop the price like a rock.

The almanac in your Hands can tell you everything :D but only until 2000 so its really useless to provide that rage for 2016 :D
But anyways i would like it :)

So according to your reasoning long term holder have nothing to care about even if the price reaches USD 300.

The price is not going got be $13,000 in 2016 that is unrealistic and you are speculating without even thinking good about it.
It would be a miracle if the price was going from $600 to suddenly $13,000. 

 
  
Kind of like how it went from $2 to $1000?  
  
And it won't happen suddenly, but if it happens - it could happen by early 2017 even if the chart is off by a few months.  Or maybe I'm wrong - I never said this is the absolute future.  I simply proposed it as a hypothesis ringing with mathematical beauty last October... a hypothesis that has consistently delivered every step of the way until now.

Why do you think the fall from $600 to $300 is inevitable before the next ATH?

Excuse my Noobish  questio,  i  can see in the graph how you've come up with this prediction but   what I'm wondering is if any trading platform has ever in history exactly repeated the same curve that happened in the past?   Just because we have this curve from 2012 doesn't mean we will repeat  it to absurd levels  this time.  We can dream but it won't happe.   

Because the chart says it is.  I personally have no stakes in the game, so ignore my opinion.  Maybe the price will shoot up from here and embarrass anyone who thought it could do otherwise.  Or maybe we test the $300 - $400 range one last time.  No one really knows.


That's all we're doing here - dreaming.

I personally think we will consolidate for a longer period of time, however.. I do believe during the next market crash BTC will go crazy mode.

The cause of the next market crash could be a bug in the SegWit software. That is very new and could have bugs.

We all know that it is somewhat impossible for something like this to happen his year because the value of the Bitcoin is not even near that. When the price is going to be that high is also something that we do not know.
With Bitcoin you can only hope that certain things are going to happen but you can never be sure.

I think that speculation is not achievable. So there is no unlucky if we cannot see $13,000 by the end of the year.

Yeah we all know that the price is never going to be that high not even in the future, it is possible for the price to reach $13,000 some day but I do not believe that the price is ever going to be $120,000.
That just seems impossible and especially fro it to happen in 2018.

most likely to be like that i most expect to see like when it was back in 2013 all started at the end of year and keep it for few month so if that is the case to be like that then you are right end of this year or start of next one

Again a very unrealistic figure, why are we not happy what happend this last year. The price has doubled, even far above 500 dollar like some would had expected.
Just let the price be and let'st start using it.

I think the price now is very good. It is in the correction phase like 6 months ago. It will rise after the correction.

If all goes well, I think the price of the bitcoin  could rise to $1000 by the end of this year or early next year.

Why impossible? because you seen the past horrible growth of bitcoin?

Thats what early stages look like - when things get naturally weeded out of the system of bad failed projects like any start up.

The price of history shouldnt reflect on what todays current rising prices are - you should see these #`s can get there if theres more world rising situations happen that enforce bitcoin to be needed.

We have to stay realistic here and we all know that the price is not going to be $13,000 at the end of 2016 that is not happening.
The highest the price is going to be at the end of 2016 is $1000, that is what I predict for the price.

Because he thinks 80-90% of bitcoin users will dump the coin thus making the demand to drastically fall and affect the price? Possible but not that drastic drop will, it will be a lesser fall instead of this big fluctuation that he state.

The price is not going to be that high at the end of 2016 I am so sure of that we have not even reached the thousands yet so it would be very unlike to be that high.
At the end of 2016 I believe that the price is going to be max $1000.

$13000.00 will be the new $666.00

realist is to speculate that price will be 1000$ at end of this year and for the fact it should be for few weeks maybe but i see little higher then this price to be stable in few month maybe some range 800-900 or maybe 750-800

The price is not going to be that high because of the fact it is somewhat just not possible, it would be nice tho if it happened.
But we have to stay realistic here and focus on what is real.

That is right. The bitcoin price could be $900 by the end of 2016. It can also be $5000 by the end of 2018.

your dream is very good but not real
but you want pump bitcoin until price $13,000 every one bitcoin
 I will all out support for you because is real every one bitcoin $13,000 i will rich

when it happens it happens fast, and hard...

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#igDailyzczsg2012-11-01zeg2013-11-30ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzcvzl

nothing would surprise me.

 
 
It will be 2 - 3 months of new daily highs every day, until everyone and their brother is a believer.

Op has no fund to pump the price, like most of these predictions the price is 99.99% percent based on their dream, not an any hard based facts.
Having said that,there is room for bitcoin to grow, much room, but there is no guarantee it will be with this high figures.