Just a thought on the ASIC technology.

[MooC Tals]

Ok I was thinking in a conspiratorial way on the whole ASIC thing going on here. Ok the two or more suppliers that will be building these thing are at a race to be the first right?

Or are they?

What if they all called each other and behind the scenes they decided to hold out on the delivery of their units till the others are ready to ship theirs. This would be beneficial to all parties right? After all if they hold back shipments till the last company has caught up and take more orders they make more money and the last company makes money too. They all win. Then everyone gets their ASIC's at the same time. Boom everyone is happy and no one loses customers.

The company that ships first will decimate the profit margins of the last company out of the race. They all are aware of the pressures this will put on the bitcoin economy.

I think we are all being played here.

This is all speculation on my part

[Phinnaeus Gage]

Ok I was thinking in a conspiratorial way on the whole ASIC thing going on here. Ok the two or more suppliers that will be building these thing are at a race to be the first right?

Or are they?

What if they all called each other and behind the scenes they decided to hold out on the delivery of their units till the others are ready to ship theirs. This would be beneficial to all parties right? After all if they hold back shipments till the last company has caught up and take more orders they make more money and the last company makes money too. They all win. Then everyone gets their ASIC's at the same time. Boom everyone is happy and no one loses customers.

The company that ships first will decimate the profit margins of the last company out of the race. They all are aware of the pressures this will put on the bitcoin economy.

I think we are all being played here.

This is all speculation on my part

That blows my conspiracy theory all to hell, for I believe that Sonny Vleisides was offered immunity to infiltrate the Bitcoin community via BFL.

[fcmatt]

Whoever ships first will more then likely get a flood of new orders. Thus being first has advantages and not easily given up.

[DobZombie]

Here we go...

(I've had this thought too. I've also thought that NO ONE has ASICS and its all a big SCAM)

I don't believe any of it tho...

[joshv06]

Don't think too hard, just go with the flow. If we don't have the ASICs by Doomsday, then you can call it a scam.

[Meatball]

Yeah, I think people are being a bit paranoid about stuff.  There's two key things everyone needs to consider.

1) If you can't afford to risk/lost the money on a pre-order, you shouldn't be doing it.

2) I don't think any ASIC vendor has said, "We have the units, send us the money."  They've all said what they expect to be _able to make_  That might be accurate or not, and to hold any of them to a timeline on something like that is not really going to work.

Google can make a self driving car, but there's a whole lot of factors outside their hands that's keeping it out of all our hands.

[poon-TANG]

Yeah, I think people are being a bit paranoid about stuff.  There's two key things everyone needs to consider.

1) If you can't afford to risk/lost the money on a pre-order, you shouldn't be doing it.

2) I don't think any ASIC vendor has said, "We have the units, send us the money."  They've all said what they expect to be _able to make_  That might be accurate or not, and to hold any of them to a timeline on something like that is not really going to work.

Google can make a self driving car, but there's a whole lot of factors outside their hands that's keeping it out of all our hands.

Agreed. If you can't afford to take the risk then get out the game, and stop making up all these crazy ideas.

[MooC Tals]

Ok I was thinking in a conspiratorial way on the whole ASIC thing going on here. Ok the two or more suppliers that will be building these thing are at a race to be the first right?

Or are they?

What if they all called each other and behind the scenes they decided to hold out on the delivery of their units till the others are ready to ship theirs. This would be beneficial to all parties right? After all if they hold back shipments till the last company has caught up and take more orders they make more money and the last company makes money too. They all win. Then everyone gets their ASIC's at the same time. Boom everyone is happy and no one loses customers.

The company that ships first will decimate the profit margins of the last company out of the race. They all are aware of the pressures this will put on the bitcoin economy.

I think we are all being played here.

This is all speculation on my part

That blows my conspiracy theory all to hell, for I believe that Sonny Vleisides was offered immunity to infiltrate the Bitcoin community via BFL.

Holy shit I never thought of that. Hang on a sec, you might be on to someting here. Let's say to avoid a prosecution he aggrees to help them destablize bitcoin. Could this be it?

It all makes sense now. Government uses patsy to criminally engage an unhealthy spurt of technology to upset the rival currency. They already have a good hold on most things that compete with the USA dollar.

This in turn places less individuals in control of the decentralized currency. Placing many individuals out of reach of a mining station.

Could he be a patsy economical hitman?


Btw I have put a pre order in for a jalla and single from BFL.

*(Before anyone starts complaning about conspiracy guys I just want to say this is all just fun. Similar to campfire stories. )

[michaelmclees]

Seems like a pretty lame plan.  "OK guys...  We're going to really stick it to the Bitcoin community...  Lord knows we can't attack it directly.  So we're going to give this guy immunity ...  So he can participate... In a scheme to take dollars from people looking to buy hardware that will generate Bitcoins...  That'll show those kids what happens when you buy something online!"

Credibly rating?  Less than a single satoshi expressed as a percentage.

[MooC Tals]

Seems like a pretty lame plan.  "OK guys...  We're going to really stick it to the Bitcoin community...  Lord knows we can't attack it directly.  So we're going to give this guy immunity ...  So he can participate... In a scheme to take dollars from people looking to buy hardware that will generate Bitcoins...  That'll show those kids what happens when you buy something online!"

Credibly rating?  Less than a single satoshi expressed as a percentage.

Yea I can see what your'e saying there. However If the government can kill the idea(bitcoin) as a possibility of succeeding then one could entertain the notion.

Maybe they're trying to get seeds in early to co opt the bitcoin system.

On a serious note. If Bernaki starts talking about bitcoins I suggest dumping the currency before it gets shut down over national security concerns.

Zerohedge has already started talking about bitcoins.  

To keep on topic I still think they're all waiting to ship at the same time.

[michaelmclees]

You suggest dumping huh?  Why?  This thought that the government could ever shut down Bitcoin is laughable.

[MooC Tals]

You suggest dumping huh?  Why?  This thought that the government could ever shut down Bitcoin is laughable.

Hmm. Libya was attacked for suggesting Arab nations to sell the oil in a currency other than the USA dollar. Iraq was attacked for trying sell oil in Euros instead of USA dollar. If bit coins starts to trample on the USA dollar it will be attacked.

I wonder when we will be able to buy gas with bitcoins? lol

[michaelmclees]

It's still early in the game.  Earlier than you think.

[DoomDumas]

You suggest dumping huh?  Why?  This thought that the government could ever shut down Bitcoin is laughable.

Hmm. Libya was attacked for suggesting Arab nations to sell the oil in a currency other than the USA dollar. Iraq was attacked for trying sell oil in Euros instead of USA dollar. If bit coins starts to trample on the USA dollar it will be attacked.

I wonder when we will be able to buy gas with bitcoins? lol

I heard Iran is selling it's oil for gold only for a while !  anyone heard about it too ?

[Phinnaeus Gage]

Ok I was thinking in a conspiratorial way on the whole ASIC thing going on here. Ok the two or more suppliers that will be building these thing are at a race to be the first right?

Or are they?

What if they all called each other and behind the scenes they decided to hold out on the delivery of their units till the others are ready to ship theirs. This would be beneficial to all parties right? After all if they hold back shipments till the last company has caught up and take more orders they make more money and the last company makes money too. They all win. Then everyone gets their ASIC's at the same time. Boom everyone is happy and no one loses customers.

The company that ships first will decimate the profit margins of the last company out of the race. They all are aware of the pressures this will put on the bitcoin economy.

I think we are all being played here.

This is all speculation on my part

That blows my conspiracy theory all to hell, for I believe that Sonny Vleisides was offered immunity to infiltrate the Bitcoin community via BFL.

Holy shit I never thought of that. Hang on a sec, you might be on to someting here. Let's say to avoid a prosecution he aggrees to help them destablize bitcoin. Could this be it?

It all makes sense now. Government uses patsy to criminally engage an unhealthy spurt of technology to upset the rival currency. They already have a good hold on most things that compete with the USA dollar.

This in turn places less individuals in control of the decentralized currency. Placing many individuals out of reach of a mining station.

Could he be a patsy economical hitman?


Btw I have put a pre order in for a jalla and single from BFL.

*(Before anyone starts complaining about conspiracy guys I just want to say this is all just fun. Similar to campfire stories. )

And every single Bitcoin heist happened after Sonny's cousin, Andrew, registered with Mt Gox last April. Don't even get me started on Gabriel Vleisides and the poker connection.

[Epicblood]

This seems stupid, might just be me, but whoever is first will get most orders right? There are tons of people holding out for ASICs to ship, so whoever shipped first would get those orders? amirite?

[bcpokey]

This seems stupid, might just be me, but whoever is first will get most orders right? There are tons of people holding out for ASICs to ship, so whoever shipped first would get those orders? amirite?

Most of these are pretty stupid yes. Whoever ships first, proves that 1) Asics are real and 2) they can deliver a mature product. Both of which incentivize people to make orders (with them, since they are the only ones getting orders out). Unless all the companies are the same person, or the other companies pay the first one to market to hold orders back, there is no reason not to ship ASAP.

ASICs are a ploy by the govt to end bitcoin through a series of overly complicated manuevers? As has been said for at least year (probably more), it would make more sense to spend the 2 or 3 million in development costs, to create a supply of ASICs and annihilate the blockchain, essentially ending bitcoin once and for all, rather than feed into its' development. The anonymous nature of BTC would provide the perfect alibi such that no one could ever prove who did it.

In fact, ASICs help secure the block chain from precisely this type of attack, as it drives up the cost to overwhelm the network (which is the point of the bitcoin).


To destroy bitcoin is easy, to maintain it is hard. If bitcoin ever really steps on anyones toes in a big way, it will have a real hard time; the main power right now is its small-timeness.

[Beans]

It seems to me the real concern with ASIC is that a single producer could mine coins cheaper then anyone else. If they reinvested mined coins into producing more ASIC's they could overtake mining. People buying from manufacturers and reinvesting their money into more ASIC's would not keep up, because of lower profit margins. As a miner myself, this is my greatest concern at the moment. There is at least one company that is intent on mining coins themselves, so unless they have a inferior products we may be in trouble.

[Meatball]

It seems to me the real concern with ASIC is that a single producer could mine coins cheaper then anyone else. If they reinvested mined coins into producing more ASIC's they could overtake mining. People buying from manufacturers and reinvesting their money into more ASIC's would not keep up, because of lower profit margins. As a miner myself, this is my greatest concern at the moment. There is at least one company that is intent on mining coins themselves, so unless they have a inferior products we may be in trouble.

It's no different than when things jumped from CPU to GPU mining.  Suddenly you saw the capability of mining about 5-10 MH/sec for 100 watts jump up to 350 MH/sec at 175 watts.  Anyone that had 'heavily invested' in CPU mining had to move to GPU to stay in the mix. 

As for companies mining with their own equipment, yeah, that's going to be an issue, but I can't imagine they'd be able to knock down the whole market.  Just as a company that mines reinvests their profit back into more ASIC's to mine, there's a lot of individuals out there doing the same thing.  The big problem would have been if someone had come up with ASIC mining and not said anything, and then started mining while everyone else was still using GPU's, but the cats out of the bag at this point  Even if none of the current ASIC's deliver, someone else will make a run at making them and it's just a matter of time.

[interlagos]

...
To destroy bitcoin is easy, to maintain it is hard. If bitcoin ever really steps on anyones toes in a big way, it will have a real hard time; the main power right now is its small-timeness.

I think you got it all backwards.
Fighting with Bitcoin is like fighting an invisible enemy in the dark.
It will always be around you laughing at your every move.
Please understand that Bitcoin is much bigger than a single crypto-currency.
It's an idea, ideas are bullet proof.