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Author Topic: Possible top at $18?  (Read 2198 times)
jatajuta
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June 05, 2011, 01:42:02 PM
 #1

On the 3hour chart and other timeframes with considerably volume we can see a drastic decrease in demand as the price reach the last high of $18.

But on this unusual market we have the fact that is weekend and the banks dont do deposits or whitdraws so maybe the lack of demand is simply that theres no way to pump more dollars into mtgox yesterday and today.

In a classic stock trading situation this is a clear sign of an iminent top but on bitcoin case maybe is better to wait more pressure from the sellers because we are on a sunday and we cant know if theres no demand by that or if really is a top and we can have a correction soon.



Any thoughts on this?
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Herodes
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June 05, 2011, 03:30:40 PM
 #2

The price went as high as 18.998 yesterday, but only for a short while. And remember this market is not a classical stock market. Also tomorrow, bank transfers will again arrive at MtGox. So actually, at this moment, buying is a good idea, imo.
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June 05, 2011, 03:32:52 PM
 #3

i'm pissed that i sold at 9$... but thats okay, ive made some money during the climb up to 18... I'm right now trying to buy back in enough to be comfortable one way or another.

ZOMG Moo!
Grant
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June 05, 2011, 03:46:14 PM
 #4

It's possible, because i sold all mines at 8.5$ recently, only to buy half of them all back again at 17.5$

If the irrationality of my trading continues it should now fall to 8.5$ lol

Enky1974
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June 05, 2011, 06:55:52 PM
 #5

On the 3hour chart and other timeframes with considerably volume we can see a drastic decrease in demand as the price reach the last high of $18.

But on this unusual market we have the fact that is weekend and the banks dont do deposits or whitdraws so maybe the lack of demand is simply that theres no way to pump more dollars into mtgox yesterday and today.

In a classic stock trading situation this is a clear sign of an iminent top but on bitcoin case maybe is better to wait more pressure from the sellers because we are on a sunday and we cant know if theres no demand by that or if really is a top and we can have a correction soon.
Any thoughts on this?
Isnt necessary a  bearish sign the fact that trading volume has been decreasing on the recent advance, and usually during the week end the volume is lower.
The thing to remember is that low volume on a rally to a lower top is only significant if it represents a real change in the market’s behavior. In particular, the previous high should have seen a fair amount of excitement and good volatility. If, after a top associated with lots of volatility and volume the market should rally to a lower top on low volume, then one has a definite bearish indication. It is too early to consider today top as a final bull market top, we have to do first a correction and then a second lower top. This pattern happened in mid may, where after a second lower top with less volume the market did a correction down to 5.60

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jatajuta
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June 05, 2011, 07:06:14 PM
 #6

Isnt necessary a  bearish sign the fact that trading volume has been decreasing on the recent advance, and usually during the week end the volume is lower.
The thing to remember is that low volume on a rally to a lower top is only significant if it represents a real change in the market’s behavior. In particular, the previous high should have seen a fair amount of excitement and good volatility. If, after a top associated with lots of volatility and volume the market should rally to a lower top on low volume, then one has a definite bearish indication. It is too early to consider today top as a final bull market top, we have to do first a correction and then a second lower top. This pattern happened in mid may, where after a second lower top with less volume the market did a correction down to 5.60


Thanks for the clarification Enky!

Right now the market has already made a lower top on the 2h chart and is breaking the 17 support doing a bearish pivot.

There is very low volume so can we confirm a correction now or we must wait for other signals?

Enky1974
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June 05, 2011, 07:14:01 PM
 #7

I was talking about the daily chart in my previous reply, yes on that timeframe (3h) it is already doing a correction.

edit: i'd like to add that it's sunday, let's see next 2-3 days if buyers come back

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jatajuta
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June 05, 2011, 07:19:39 PM
 #8

Okay correction in course lets see how far it goes  Smiley
Enky1974
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June 05, 2011, 07:34:16 PM
 #9

Okay correction in course lets see how far it goes  Smiley
look also the book for short term support/resistance, i use this website http://www.iusecoins.com/mtgx/depth.php

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jatajuta
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June 05, 2011, 07:40:24 PM
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Okay correction in course lets see how far it goes  Smiley
look also the book for short term support/resistance, i use this website http://www.iusecoins.com/mtgx/depth.php


Great! Thanks a lot Enky you are being very helpful! This link provides the same ammount of orders that are on this site or provide more info?

http://mtgoxlive.bco.in/orders



Enky1974
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June 05, 2011, 07:42:00 PM
 #11

same info but i prefer to look at it in text format

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jatajuta
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June 05, 2011, 07:57:58 PM
 #12

There was a pullback to 17 which was not able to get back to the support.

Good volume on the sellers side finally.



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jatajuta
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June 05, 2011, 07:59:07 PM
 #13

same info but i prefer to look at it in text format

I have to get used to it , i lost myself on all that numbers  Cheesy
Nesetalis
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June 05, 2011, 10:35:00 PM
 #14

I'm set.. if it goes up, i'm good, if it goes down, i'm happy Cheesy

either way... this is quite exciting and interesting to watch! every time i look, the market is surprising me!

ZOMG Moo!
jjVon
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this is America's "Value"


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June 06, 2011, 01:59:50 AM
 #15

it is exciting to watch the value soar up.  Then a little troublesome to watch it peter out a bit.  I too am waiting for a small chunk of $ to load in MtGox.   I feel like holding at this point, but who knows what a monday holds after the shocking news from bitcoinmarket.com hits.

I've also found a little fun with the randomizer:
http://fxnet.bitlex.org/?ref=1139

After all is said and done, there is usually more said than done.
Nesetalis
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June 06, 2011, 07:08:16 AM
 #16

I don't know, up or down, its both exciting. UP... my bitcoins are worth more.. down.. I can buy more bitcoins which will be worth more Cheesy

ZOMG Moo!
Vitalik Buterin
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June 06, 2011, 09:48:19 AM
 #17

I'm set.. if it goes up, i'm good, if it goes down, i'm happy Cheesy

either way... this is quite exciting and interesting to watch! every time i look, the market is surprising me!

Every time I think it's about stay stagnant for a few weeks, to see if prices stabilizing would help the economy, and then it goes up again. At the top of the last mini-bubble, I considered cashing out at $9, then I regretted not doing so at $5.5. Not making that mistake again.

Argumentum ad lunam: the fallacy that because Bitcoin's price is rising really fast the currency must be a speculative bubble and/or Ponzi scheme.
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