Shall I hold or invest with %12.5 premium per year ?

[Fakhoury]

Hello all,

I've good sum of bitcoins, and they represent good sum as well in my local currency.

I was thinking about selling all my bitcoins, lock that fiat money in investing certificates in my bank where I get %12.5 premium per year and buy bitcoins every month (it will take some time to re-buy again all my bitcoins, but not that long, could be 1-2 years as I will include my fiat salary as well).

Or, shall I hold and keep holding ?

If you were me, what would you do and why ?

Thanks in advance.

[BillyBobZorton]

It depends, how does that contract look like? 12.5% seems good... too good actually. Can you retire your funds at any time or do you need to stay with them whatever happens? I just can't trust long term fiat investments anymore. How many BTC you got?

[Fakhoury]

It depends, how does that contract look like? 12.5% seems good... too good actually. Can you retire your funds at any time or do you need to stay with them whatever happens? I just can't trust long term fiat investments anymore. How many BTC you got?

I can retire the funds after it pass the 6 months freeze period.

The investment is by my local bank here, so it's 101% safe. Even if the bank went broke, the government will must pay us and this is like nearly so difficult nowadays as our economic status is good.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

I think it comes down to your outlook for bitcoin price over the next year or so. If your analysis leads you to believe bitcoin price will continue to appreciate at a rate greater than 12.5% per year why sell? Now if it is a question of diversification and you feel too much of your capital is tied up in bitcoin I could understand selling a portion now to diversify into fiat or gold, and pay down debt or mortgages.

[tmfp]

Hello all,

I've good sum of bitcoins, and they represent good sum as well in my local currency.

I was thinking about selling all my bitcoins, lock that fiat money in investing certificates in my bank where I get %12.5 premium per year and buy bitcoins every month (it will take some time to re-buy again all my bitcoins, but not that long, could be 1-2 years as I will include my fiat salary as well).

Or, shall I hold and keep holding ?

If you were me, what would you do and why ?

Thanks in advance.

If you feel the need to do something, do 50/50.
As you already have been a bitcoin buyer, you are presumably bullish on the price. What do you think Bitcoin will be trading at in a year's time?
What is your local currency and your national economic situation, and how do you see it developing over the short term?
12.5% is globally pretty high in these days of Central Bank money printing, a rate like that implies that there are inflationary aspects to your national economy or weakness in its currency.
It sounds good, but not if inflation eats it up.

The only country that comes to mind paying that is Egypt. I'd stay out of holding too many EGP atm.

[Fakhoury]

I think it comes down to your outlook for bitcoin price over the next year or so. If your analysis leads you to believe bitcoin price will continue to appreciate at a rate greater than 12.5% per year why sell? Now if it is a question of diversification and you feel too much of your capital is tied up in bitcoin I could understand selling a portion now to diversify into fiat or gold, and pay down debt or mortgages.

My buddy, thanks for your reply.

To be honest, I want to invest my money.

As you know me well, I'm insanely permabull and I know that we can reach $50K and $100K in the coming 5-12 years.

But what I would like to do is the following,

Buy again my frozen BTC while enjoying guaranteed profit per month (%12.5 premium divided by 12 months). As I will buy all the sold BTC again with that profit PLUS my salary profit.

I don't want to diversify my portfolio nor I've any debt to pay.

[AncilVTwo]

lets see the current price is roughly 400 usd per bitcoin and i dont expect it to go over 550 by the end of the year, im guessing itll be around 500 so thats a 20% increase in value but theres a chance you take. with the 12.5% investment the profit is guranteed.

[Fakhoury]

If you feel the need to do something, do 50/50.
As you already have been a bitcoin buyer, you are presumably bullish on the price. What do you think Bitcoin will be trading at in a year's time?
What is your local currency and your national economic situation, and how do you see it developing over the short term?
12.5% is globally pretty high in these days of Central Bank money printing, a rate like that implies that there are inflationary aspects to your national economy or weakness in its currency.
It sounds good, but not if inflation eats it up.

The only country that comes to mind paying that is Egypt. I'd stay out of holding too many EGP atm.

You nearly nailed it, but no, I'm not from Egypt.

There is inflation in my country to be honest, and the currency while it's compared to USD, it's really weak.

But as I've mentioned earlier, I want to enjoy some good returns and I insist on buying all my bitcoins again.

I hate 50/50 thing, I would like to do it all in to be honest.

lets see the current price is roughly 400 usd per bitcoin and i dont expect it to go over 550 by the end of the year, im guessing itll be around 500 so thats a 20% increase in value but theres a chance you take. with the 12.5% investment the profit is guranteed.

Good two points here

1. The %12.5 is guaranteed.
2. I don't think we will spike that hard to $550 or $600, even if we will reach $600, I could compensate the difference easily.

[tmfp]

Good luck whatever you decide, I would just point out the obvious and say that if your fiat inflation is say 10% then your real return is not 12.5%, but 2.5%.
Given your permabull stance, I would stick with Bitcoin personally. Moon, and all that.

[Fakhoury]

Good luck whatever you decide, I would just point out the obvious and say that if your fiat inflation is say 10% then your real return is not 12.5%, but 2.5%.
Given your permabull stance, I would stick with Bitcoin personally. Moon, and all that.

I totally understand you, but you've missed one or two points,

1. We can't be ultra sure that in a duration of 10-12 years by max. (the duration where I will be holding BTC), that we will not convert BTC to fiat, so we will be forced to use inflated money.
2. I will cover the BTC I've sold in 1-2 years max., so that inflation won't be that big in that duration.

I'm in a mind mess really.

I want a good investment opportunity.

[Possum577]

Where can you get a note paying 12.5%? Which bank? I might be interested.

Good luck whatever you decide, I would just point out the obvious and say that if your fiat inflation is say 10% then your real return is not 12.5%, but 2.5%.
Given your permabull stance, I would stick with Bitcoin personally. Moon, and all that.

If inflation is 10% per year we'll have much bigger problems to contend with!

[CryptoGreek]

Dear Fakhoury, a word of advise:
Thousands of Greeks lost their savings, after the 2012 PSI haircut, which included their "super-duper-guaranteed " government-issued bonds.
There is no such thing as "100% Guaranteed", when banks and governments are involved.
Just HODL!  

[pattu1]

Holding is my opinion, if you have the risk appetite.
Investing in Bank Certificates is safe, but you have the risk of missing out on huge bitcoin price movements. 

[Slark]

Dear Fakhoury, a word of advise:
Thousands of Greeks lost their savings, after the 2012 PSI haircut, which included their "super-duper-guaranteed " government-issued bonds.
There is no such thing as "100% Guaranteed", when banks and governments are involved.
Just HODL!  

Unfortunately Greeks recent history is not positive in terms of managing their national debt. It was not surprising that government reached out for money of their citizens to help itself.
If you are living in any country with similar problems and suspect that your national currency is not so stable, don't invest in it and don't keep it!
Also history of Cyprus and Greek show, that your money stored in banks are no longer fully yours...

[romjpn]

Where can you get a note paying 12.5%? Which bank? I might be interested.

Good luck whatever you decide, I would just point out the obvious and say that if your fiat inflation is say 10% then your real return is not 12.5%, but 2.5%.
Given your permabull stance, I would stick with Bitcoin personally. Moon, and all that.

If inflation is 10% per year we'll have much bigger problems to contend with!

If your bank offer it, you can have an account in South African Rands for example, and get more (indexed on inflation). My Japanese bank offer that (I've never used it though). Because returns on JPY are ridiculously low.

[CryptoGreek]

Unfortunately Greeks recent history is not positive in terms of managing their national debt. It was not surprising that government reached out for money of their citizens to help itself.
If you are living in any country with similar problems and suspect that your national currency is not so stable, don't invest in it and don't keep it!

I see numerous comments about Greece in this forum, and the easy thing to say is that "Greeks didn't manage their debt".
The thing is, that you don't really know when the time comes where your country suddenly has a debt problem. Imagine living in a country with a 110% Debt/GDP ratio (a normal ratio nowadays), everything is fine, until one day some EU officials decide that your debt is a problem. And your country suddenly needs a bail-out. Things can go south very fast, if someone decides that your state debt is a problem.

Also history of Cyprus and Greek show, that your money stored in banks are no longer fully yours...

That's exactly what I described in my blog post earlier:
Are your money safe in a Greek bank? Think twice.

[BitcoinBlackjack]

I would do just about anything for 12.5% a year! Seems too good to be true

[n2004al]

Hello all,

I've good sum of bitcoins, and they represent good sum as well in my local currency.

I was thinking about selling all my bitcoins, lock that fiat money in investing certificates in my bank where I get %12.5 premium per year and buy bitcoins every month (it will take some time to re-buy again all my bitcoins, but not that long, could be 1-2 years as I will include my fiat salary as well).

Or, shall I hold and keep holding ?

If you were me, what would you do and why ?

Thanks in advance.

I will advice to sell only few of those Fakhoury. Or to not sell at all (better). That 12.5% you will earn from the investing in certificates will be easily surpassed by another "bubble" like this that happen this last week. The price of bitcoin rose 100% and drop only 50%. So you have (since today) 50% evaluation of your bitcoins only within one week. With to much probability it will be another one event like this (at least) with the halving (if everything goes as must go) and you if will sell your bitcoin you will find yourself with less bitcoin than before if the price of bitcoin will go at least over the 12.5% given by the investing certificates. Percentage which, with the behaviour of bitcoin, is very probable to happen without to much difficulty.

Anyhow can happen even the contrary. With bitcoin no one prediction and reason can be true. It is unpredictable. Now I see for example that the price of it is about 366 us dollar. So about 14-20 us dollar fewer than yesterday. If you sell now and the price goes more down you can earn even from the further drop of the actual price.

But if it were me I wouldn't sell nothing.

[odolvlobo]

I was thinking about selling all my bitcoins, lock that fiat money in investing certificates in my bank where I get %12.5 premium per year and buy bitcoins every month (it will take some time to re-buy again all my bitcoins, but not that long, could be 1-2 years as I will include my fiat salary as well).

Loaning money to your bank is risky. You should instead be deciding which asset to buy -- gold, real estate, bitcoins, etc.

[NorrisK]

Do you need to put the money all at once? Otherwise you could use your monthly fiat income you would use to rebuy the bitcoin to put in that investment.

What country are you from? Sounds like a European one with the banking guarantee.