2. The question of the noob: "But it could be a real BTC increase value".
Yes, but look to what happen in the world...
Did bitcoin organization organized 1000 squares rallies?
Did happen something very loud that all media talk bout it?
Did big companies started to invest on BTC?
If not, it is just a bubble.
Well, the Foundation finally nearly went belly up (or close to that), so can't carry on with making more shit. That's good for bitcoin.
Very loud? Well the news from the EU were actually pretty loud. The new Chinese financial control rules are also something what you can safely call "very loud".
Lot's of money coming aboard, it's now traded on NYSE, and big companies are interested in the blockchain technology. So it's getting mainstream as an investment vehicle.