[CLOSED] [Group Buy + Group Hosting] 3.5TH/s Avalon6 + Platinum PSUs!

[suchmoon]

As a general update: I've extended a few of the deadlines for the group buy.

Can you please specify "noon" or "midnight" (12:00 PM is surprisingly confusing for a lot of people) and perhaps add UTC times too.

[klondike_bar]

this is quite a good deal, its a shame the hardware cost is just a *smidge* high. If BTC could jump back over $350 I would be interested in 1-2 units

realistically the hardware would stay at GND for a year or more because of the costs to ship it elsewhere, and the fact that its cheap enough electricity that difficulty could pretty much quadruple at $320/BTC and still make a few dollars a month.

[armedmilitia]

I will update as soon as I hear back from GND.

Looking forward to it!

As a general update: I've extended a few of the deadlines for the group buy.

Can you please specify "noon" or "midnight" (12:00 PM is surprisingly confusing for a lot of people) and perhaps add UTC times too.

Good idea, I've done that.

this is quite a good deal, its a shame the hardware cost is just a *smidge* high. If BTC could jump back over $350 I would be interested in 1-2 units

realistically the hardware would stay at GND for a year or more because of the costs to ship it elsewhere, and the fact that its cheap enough electricity that difficulty could pretty much quadruple at $320/BTC and still make a few dollars a month.

That's exactly what I've been thinking, although I'm stubborn--and I'm planning on running these miners all the way up until they don't turn a profit anymore. Great North Data is actually saying that they will have even lower rates in a few months, which we will get. So that's a nice thought.

[Finksy]

Alright everyone! I had the pleasure of speaking with Kevin @ GND this evening to get some details about their facility and power situation.  The way their 3-phase power & PDU's are arranged require that each leg inside each PDU be balanced so as not to cause them problems.  Each PDU can handle 7500W maximum, or 2500W per leg, balanced.  The only way to safely arrange this w/ Avalon6's is for each PSU to power 2x units after the firmware upgrade to 3.65 TH/s & ~1000W DC, which would give ~2100W after PSU losses (6300W per PDU).  The only way we would be able to get 2.5 miners per PSU as originally planned would be to keep them at 3.5 TH/s as opposed to the planned firmware upgrade to 3.65TH/s, which I'm quite confident nobody would want to do.

As for lease rates, I am offering a rate of $20 per PSU package per month, including shipping to the data centre, replacing any faulty units, and covering lost mining profit due to PSU problems beyond 99% uptime. This will work out to $10 per miner per month for the PSU for this Group Buy. Considering the issues revolving around joint ownership of the PSU's, responsibility of who would replace faulty PSU's in the case of a failure, and having to hastily liquidate the hardware at a discount and ship PSU's to the new owners at the end of the hosting term, I think this will make a lot of sense to most of you. If anyone is willing to sign on to a 6-month or longer hosting contract with GND, I would be willing to drop the rates for them to offset shipping there and back. Hosting contract is a fixed 3-month.  We can talk about discounts for those looking to renew w/ GND after their 3 months is up.

If you have any questions about this, please feel free to ask!

[Searing]

hmmmm....what I get on tradeblock.com with these new numbers. Using 1-15 numbers ..if we got to over 50 units the savings would be about  50 bucks FYI

Also this is NOT including any pool fees which MAY be included in hosting. If I am incorrect run the same calcs with 2.5% pool fees as others have sugested (or 1% your choice unclear on this myself)




used default 7% diff rise on the calculator


anyway not too rosy on above would not roi in 1 year

[thebonenz]

Just confirming that we ship the miners from the data center to ourselves after the hosting contract is done?

[Searing]

Just confirming that we ship the miners from the data center to ourselves after the hosting contract is done?

A ball park figure on cost for that to be done would also be nice to know. (again into the math of all this)

[armedmilitia]

Just confirming that we ship the miners from the data center to ourselves after the hosting contract is done?

You can if you want, you can also renew the contract. Your choice!
As for ballpark shipping cost: It depends where you live. It would probably be best to use canada post's shipping calculator to get a rough estimate in CAD.

[Finksy]

hmmmm....what I get on tradeblock.com with these new numbers. Using 1-15 numbers ..if we got to over 50 units the savings would be about  50 bucks FYI

Also this is NOT including any pool fees which MAY be included in hosting. If I am incorrect run the same calcs with 2.5% pool fees as others have sugested (or 1% your choice unclear on this myself)




used default 7% diff rise on the calculator


anyway not too rosy on above would not roi in 1 year

A couple problems with your calculator:

-Mining starting January 6th-  Miners are due to ship on November 20th, and arrive at the hosting facility to be operational by around Nov 27th if enough people get involved. I have it set as an early December start date in case of delays.
-Electricity Cost of $0.065 per KW & 1000W-  Electricity cost (hosting) is already included in the purchase price for the first 3 months.  Better off removing it from purchase price, and using $58.02 as a recurring monthly cost to cover electricity and PSU for the calculator.
-Hash rate and energy consumption- Firmware for 3.65TH/s is meant to be released shortly after miners ship, and the consumption figure of 1kW is based on the initial, higher figure.

Here is what I came up with:



Note, my model also has the lower exchange rate reflected.  If I was to run it at the same exchange of $333 from  yesterday, it would be a 323 day ROI.  Total return was BTC1.2, and higher exchanges would offset cost of hosting by more.

[spiccioli]

Finsky,

your model doesn't consider, it seems to me, that at the start of next July there will be next halving.

spiccioli

[Finksy]

Yes you are correct, sorry I should have said that.  Are there any calculators take halving into effect?

[spiccioli]

Yes you are correct, sorry I should have said that.  Are there any calculators take halving into effect?

Not that I'm aware of.

spiccioli

[klondike_bar]

Yes you are correct, sorry I should have said that.  Are there any calculators take halving into effect?

I just do calculation up to halving, then a brand new calculation that assumes a ~9mos (or whatever it is exactly) lead time for 12.5btc/blocl. Then add the two together.

From what I see though, breakeven is around the point of halving, after which there may be another 10-20% return over an extra 6-8 months.

Biggest concern is that bitcoin price could move faster than difficulty, as I think it's realistic to assume $700/btc or better by 2017.

[torepia]

This i my ROI point of view:

This calculation is based on the fact that you have the money to pay for the miner package + hosting for a year, on hand, so that the alternative is to buy coins instead of mining gear for that amount of money.

Calc inputs:
Difficulty increment: 4%   #I seriously doubt it will be below 4% on average.
Pool fee: 2.5%         #Based on Ant PPS. Even if you are mining on 0% fee PPLNS. You can't expect more than 98% luck on average IMO.
Hashrate: 3500         #Based on 3650TH/s -4%. They have stated +/- 5%, lets try to be realistic.      
Hardware price: 1436$ (Ex. hosting/PSU rental)
Hardware price in BTC: 4.373
Watts: 1000
Start date: 11-30
Maintain cost/month: ~58$ #Based on 0.0661$/KWH aka hosting, and 10$/month PSU rental



Seems like you will never earn back the amount of BTC you put into this.
Miner cost + 1 year hosting = 1436 + 696 = 2132$ total invested.
If you buy coins today for that amount of money, this will give you 6.41 BTC.
If you buy gear, you pay 4.37 BTC up front, which you won't mine back. Unless you get cheaper hosting or $/KWH.

PS: There are 3 months of hosting at 0.047$/KW, that is not considered in this calc.
PS: Calc does not take halving into consideration. If you can't ROI without halving, you probably can't with it either

Am I missing something?
Better to buy coins than gear, in terms of ROI?

Disclaimer: You can ofc ROI this in terms of $, if BTC price skyrocket. My point being, it's always better to buy coins.

[Biodom]

This i my ROI point of view:

This calculation is based on the fact that you have the money to pay for the miner package + hosting for a year, on hand, so that the alternative is to buy coins instead of mining gear for that amount of money.

Calc inputs:
Difficulty increment: 4%   #I seriously doubt it will be below 4% on average.
Pool fee: 2.5%         #Based on Ant PPS. Even if you are mining on 0% fee PPLNS. You can't expect more than 98% luck on average IMO.
Hashrate: 3500         #Based on 3650TH/s -4%. They have stated +/- 5%, lets try to be realistic.      
Hardware price: 1436$ (Ex. hosting/PSU rental)
Hardware price in BTC: 4.373
Watts: 1000
Start date: 11-30
Maintain cost/month: ~58$ #Based on 0.0661$/KWH aka hosting, and 10$/month PSU rental

url snipped

Seems like you will never earn back the amount of BTC you put into this.
Miner cost + 1 year hosting = 1436 + 696 = 2132$ total invested.
If you buy coins today for that amount of money, this will give you 6.41 BTC.
If you buy gear, you pay 4.37 BTC up front, which you won't mine back. Unless you get cheaper hosting or $/KWH.

PS: There are 3 months of hosting at 0.047$/KW, that is not considered in this calc.
PS: Calc does not take halving into consideration. If you can't ROI without halving, you probably can't with it either

Am I missing something?
Better to buy coins than gear, in terms of ROI?

Disclaimer: You can ofc ROI this in terms of $, if BTC price skyrocket. My point being, it's always better to buy coins.

you are not putting btc into it, but $$. Don't put in bitcoin that you already have.
these calculations never account for btc price change, and therefore cannot be trusted.
Start with $$, end up with $$ and put in various bitcoin price scenarios.
Besides, where in your calculations is the RESIDUAL value for the miner?
It was ~55% in BTC and 35% in $$ for SP30 after 12 mo and 53% of SP20 in $$ and astonishing 78% in btc after 10.5 mo (even with a high price paid for SP20 before discount to $400-500).

[torepia]

This i my ROI point of view:

This calculation is based on the fact that you have the money to pay for the miner package + hosting for a year, on hand, so that the alternative is to buy coins instead of mining gear for that amount of money.

Calc inputs:
Difficulty increment: 4%   #I seriously doubt it will be below 4% on average.
Pool fee: 2.5%         #Based on Ant PPS. Even if you are mining on 0% fee PPLNS. You can't expect more than 98% luck on average IMO.
Hashrate: 3500         #Based on 3650TH/s -4%. They have stated +/- 5%, lets try to be realistic.      
Hardware price: 1436$ (Ex. hosting/PSU rental)
Hardware price in BTC: 4.373
Watts: 1000
Start date: 11-30
Maintain cost/month: ~58$ #Based on 0.0661$/KWH aka hosting, and 10$/month PSU rental

url snipped

Seems like you will never earn back the amount of BTC you put into this.
Miner cost + 1 year hosting = 1436 + 696 = 2132$ total invested.
If you buy coins today for that amount of money, this will give you 6.41 BTC.
If you buy gear, you pay 4.37 BTC up front, which you won't mine back. Unless you get cheaper hosting or $/KWH.

PS: There are 3 months of hosting at 0.047$/KW, that is not considered in this calc.
PS: Calc does not take halving into consideration. If you can't ROI without halving, you probably can't with it either

Am I missing something?
Better to buy coins than gear, in terms of ROI?

Disclaimer: You can ofc ROI this in terms of $, if BTC price skyrocket. My point being, it's always better to buy coins.

you are not putting btc into it, but $$. Don't put in bitcoin that you already have.
these calculations never account for btc price change, and therefore cannot be trusted.
Start with $$, end up with $$ and put in various bitcoin price scenarios.
Besides, where in your calculations is the RESIDUAL value for the miner?
It was ~55% in BTC and 35% in $$ for SP30 after 12 mo and 53% of SP20 in $$ and astonishing 78% in btc after 10.5 mo (even with a high price paid for SP20 before discount to $400-500).

My example is more like buy btc OR buy hardware go get btc. At least thats what I was trying to do.

[suchmoon]

Besides, where in your calculations is the RESIDUAL value for the miner?
It was ~55% in BTC and 35% in $$ for SP30 after 12 mo and 53% of SP20 in $$ and astonishing 78% in btc after 10.5 mo (even with a high price paid for SP20 before discount to $400-500).

Avalon sadly is not Spondoolies or Bitmain when it comes to demand in the used miner market but depending on how successful you're with timing your exit (the 3-month contract renewals might complicate that) you should be able to get 20-30% back after 6 to 9 months.

Unfortunately that part is even less predictable than difficulty/exchange rate/etc. Depends a lot on what other hardware is available at that time.

[klondike_bar]

This i my ROI point of view:

This calculation is based on the fact that you have the money to pay for the miner package + hosting for a year, on hand, so that the alternative is to buy coins instead of mining gear for that amount of money.

Calc inputs:
Difficulty increment: 4%   #I seriously doubt it will be below 4% on average.
Pool fee: 2.5%         #Based on Ant PPS. Even if you are mining on 0% fee PPLNS. You can't expect more than 98% luck on average IMO.
Hashrate: 3500         #Based on 3650TH/s -4%. They have stated +/- 5%, lets try to be realistic.      
Hardware price: 1436$ (Ex. hosting/PSU rental)
Hardware price in BTC: 4.373
Watts: 1000
Start date: 11-30
Maintain cost/month: ~58$ #Based on 0.0661$/KWH aka hosting, and 10$/month PSU rental

url snipped

Seems like you will never earn back the amount of BTC you put into this.
Miner cost + 1 year hosting = 1436 + 696 = 2132$ total invested.
If you buy coins today for that amount of money, this will give you 6.41 BTC.
If you buy gear, you pay 4.37 BTC up front, which you won't mine back. Unless you get cheaper hosting or $/KWH.

PS: There are 3 months of hosting at 0.047$/KW, that is not considered in this calc.
PS: Calc does not take halving into consideration. If you can't ROI without halving, you probably can't with it either

Am I missing something?
Better to buy coins than gear, in terms of ROI?

Disclaimer: You can ofc ROI this in terms of $, if BTC price skyrocket. My point being, it's always better to buy coins.

you are not putting btc into it, but $$. Don't put in bitcoin that you already have.
these calculations never account for btc price change, and therefore cannot be trusted.
Start with $$, end up with $$ and put in various bitcoin price scenarios.
Besides, where in your calculations is the RESIDUAL value for the miner?
It was ~55% in BTC and 35% in $$ for SP30 after 12 mo and 53% of SP20 in $$ and astonishing 78% in btc after 10.5 mo (even with a high price paid for SP20 before discount to $400-500).

Thats if you want to diversify your money/risk, but if one or the other its entirely up to what you think the bitcoin price will do.

ps: the calculation posted brings up something important: the PSU lease. By assuming $10/month for the lease, after 8 months the [half-]PSU is completely paid for. does it become property of the leasee, or do the monthly lease fees become monthly rental fees? Either way, that adds about $60-80 to the above calculations ROI.

[calagan]

Very interested, but I think we definitely need to have a clearer picture about the fees after 3 months and also the PSU lease situation as mentioned by klondike_bar. How about a yearly plan or an unlimited plan ending when the miner is no longer profitable?

[armedmilitia]

If you guys have python installed on your computer you can run this python script I wrote. It takes the halving into account, accounts for faster blocktimes when the difficulty increases faster, and allows difficulty increases to change over time. Please don't trust random code on the internet! There's nothing malicious here, but you don't know that unless you can read it (so don't run it if you don't know what you're doing). Source is here:

Code:

# This is written in python 3
# You can use this in your own projects if you wish
# Note that pricing and hosting costs assume 50 units purchased

def truncate(f, n): #This function is from stackOverflow
    '''Truncates/pads a float f to n decimal places without rounding'''
    s = '{}'.format(f)
    if 'e' in s or 'E' in s:
        return '{0:.{1}f}'.format(f, n)
    i, p, d = s.partition('.')
    return '.'.join([i, (d+'0'*n)[:n]])

###################
# HARCODED VALUES #
###################
#Cost in USD of miner (fixed costs only)
minerCost = 1395.5

#Monthly hosting rate, USD
minerPowerCost = 45.04

#Monthly PSU cost, per miner, USD
PSUCost = 10

#Simulation ending block number ()
simulationEnd = 472500 #this is ~1 yr after halving 

#Revenue of miner $/day @ anticipated start block
#You may need to calculate this at bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
minerRevenue = 8.55

#This is the block the simulation begins at
startBlock = 385389 #this block should be mined on November 27th

#This is the predicted difficulty at startBlock
startDiff = 68500000000 #this is my projected difficulty on the 27th
 
#this is the starting % increase every two weeks
expectedDiffIncrease = 3.00

#this is the % change in difficulty increase every two weeks
diffIncreaseDelta = -3.5

############################################
#A couple of calculations before we begin: #
############################################

#Gets daily total recurring costs for us
minerPowerCost += PSUCost
minerPowerCost /= 30




breakeven = False
revenue = 0
daysElapsed = 0 #in days
currentBlock = startBlock
blocksSinceLastBlock = 0;
currentDiff = startDiff
print("Simulation start: \nDifficulty is {}. \nProfit is ${} per day.\nExpected difficulty increase is {}%, with future increases changing by {}%.".format(truncate(currentDiff, 2), truncate(minerRevenue - minerPowerCost, 2), truncate(expectedDiffIncrease, 2), truncate(diffIncreaseDelta, 2)))
print("Note that daily profit does include hosting cost.")
while True: 
	#1 loop = 1 block
	if (currentBlock % 2016 == 0): #checks if difficulty needs to be adjusted
		currentDiff *= (100 + expectedDiffIncrease)/100
		minerRevenue *= (100 - expectedDiffIncrease)/100
		print("Difficulty is now {} (+{}%). Profit is now ${} per day".format(truncate(currentDiff, 2), truncate(expectedDiffIncrease, 2), truncate(minerRevenue - minerPowerCost, 2)))
		expectedDiffIncrease *= (100 + diffIncreaseDelta)/100

	if (currentBlock == 420000): #checks if block reward needs to be halved
		minerRevenue /= 2
		print("The block reward has halved. Profit is now ${} per day".format(truncate(minerRevenue - minerPowerCost, 2)))

	if (minerRevenue - minerPowerCost <= 0):
		print("Miner is no longer profitable. Ending simulation\n")
		break

	if (blocksSinceLastBlock) > int((144*(100+expectedDiffIncrease)/100)//1): #calculates real time, note that this accounts for less time between blocks when diff spikes
		daysElapsed += 1
		revenue += minerRevenue - minerPowerCost
		blocksSinceLastBlock -= (144*(100+expectedDiffIncrease)/100)//1 #this takes care of a difficulty increase mid-day

	if currentBlock == simulationEnd:
		print("End of simulation reached.\n")
		break

	if (revenue > minerCost and breakeven == False):
		print("BREAK EVEN REACHED ON DAY {}!".format(daysElapsed))
		breakeven = True #hell yes


	currentBlock += 1
	blocksSinceLastBlock += 1

print("{} days have elapsed.".format(daysElapsed))
print("Your total revenue after hosting costs: {}".format(truncate(revenue,2)))
print("Your net gain/loss: ${}".format(truncate(revenue-minerCost,2)))

"Plausible" difficulty scenario:

Code:

Simulation start: 
Difficulty is 68500000000.00. 
Profit is $6.71 per day.
Expected difficulty increase is 3.00%, with future increases changing by -3.50%.
Note that daily profit does include hosting cost.
Difficulty is now 70555000000.00 (+3.00%). Profit is now $6.45 per day
Difficulty is now 72597567250.00 (+2.89%). Profit is now $6.21 per day
Difficulty is now 74625707336.90 (+2.79%). Profit is now $5.99 per day
Difficulty is now 76637539075.80 (+2.69%). Profit is now $5.78 per day
Difficulty is now 78631295311.30 (+2.60%). Profit is now $5.58 per day
Difficulty is now 80605323051.80 (+2.51%). Profit is now $5.39 per day
Difficulty is now 82558082994.20 (+2.42%). Profit is now $5.22 per day
Difficulty is now 84488148495.90 (+2.33%). Profit is now $5.05 per day
Difficulty is now 86394204049.70 (+2.25%). Profit is now $4.90 per day
Difficulty is now 88275043314.50 (+2.17%). Profit is now $4.75 per day
Difficulty is now 90129566757.00 (+2.10%). Profit is now $4.61 per day
Difficulty is now 91956778951.50 (+2.02%). Profit is now $4.48 per day
Difficulty is now 93755785587.30 (+1.95%). Profit is now $4.36 per day
Difficulty is now 95525790229.40 (+1.88%). Profit is now $4.24 per day
Difficulty is now 97266090872.10 (+1.82%). Profit is now $4.13 per day
Difficulty is now 98976076328.90 (+1.75%). Profit is now $4.03 per day
Difficulty is now 100655222492.16 (+1.69%). Profit is now $3.93 per day
The block reward has halved. Profit is now $1.04 per day
Difficulty is now 102303088498.15 (+1.63%). Profit is now $1.00 per day
Difficulty is now 103919312827.61 (+1.57%). Profit is now $0.95 per day
Difficulty is now 105503609370.50 (+1.52%). Profit is now $0.91 per day
Difficulty is now 107055763480.00 (+1.47%). Profit is now $0.87 per day
Difficulty is now 108575628038.90 (+1.41%). Profit is now $0.83 per day
Difficulty is now 110063119558.50 (+1.37%). Profit is now $0.79 per day
Difficulty is now 111518214328.15 (+1.32%). Profit is now $0.76 per day
Difficulty is now 112940944631.03 (+1.27%). Profit is now $0.73 per day
Difficulty is now 114331395039.91 (+1.23%). Profit is now $0.69 per day
Difficulty is now 115689698804.39 (+1.18%). Profit is now $0.66 per day
Difficulty is now 117016034339.57 (+1.14%). Profit is now $0.63 per day
Difficulty is now 118310621824.20 (+1.10%). Profit is now $0.61 per day
Difficulty is now 119573719914.87 (+1.06%). Profit is now $0.58 per day
Difficulty is now 120805622581.46 (+1.03%). Profit is now $0.56 per day
Difficulty is now 122006656067.74 (+0.99%). Profit is now $0.53 per day
Difficulty is now 123177175979.67 (+0.95%). Profit is now $0.51 per day
Difficulty is now 124317564503.24 (+0.92%). Profit is now $0.49 per day
Difficulty is now 125428227752.45 (+0.89%). Profit is now $0.47 per day
Difficulty is now 126509593247.44 (+0.86%). Profit is now $0.45 per day
BREAK EVEN REACHED ON DAY 505!
Difficulty is now 127562107521.74 (+0.83%). Profit is now $0.43 per day
Difficulty is now 128586233857.42 (+0.80%). Profit is now $0.41 per day
Difficulty is now 129582450145.87 (+0.77%). Profit is now $0.39 per day
Difficulty is now 130551246871.86 (+0.74%). Profit is now $0.38 per day
Difficulty is now 131493125217.94 (+0.72%). Profit is now $0.36 per day
Difficulty is now 132408595285.90 (+0.69%). Profit is now $0.34 per day
Difficulty is now 133298174431.81 (+0.67%). Profit is now $0.33 per day
End of simulation reached.

597 days have elapsed.
Your total revenue after hosting costs: 1431.67
Your net gain/loss: $36.17

Super optimistic simulation for the hell of it:

Code:

Simulation start: 
Difficulty is 68500000000.00. 
Profit is $6.71 per day.
Expected difficulty increase is 1.00%, with future increases changing by -8.00%.
Note that daily profit does include hosting cost.
Difficulty is now 69185000000.00 (+1.00%). Profit is now $6.62 per day
Difficulty is now 69821502000.00 (+0.92%). Profit is now $6.55 per day
Difficulty is now 70412471192.90 (+0.84%). Profit is now $6.48 per day
Difficulty is now 70960764656.60 (+0.77%). Profit is now $6.41 per day
Difficulty is now 71469122579.00 (+0.71%). Profit is now $6.35 per day
Difficulty is now 71940162360.70 (+0.65%). Profit is now $6.30 per day
Difficulty is now 72376375133.10 (+0.60%). Profit is now $6.25 per day
Difficulty is now 72780124281.90 (+0.55%). Profit is now $6.20 per day
Difficulty is now 73153645615.60 (+0.51%). Profit is now $6.16 per day
Difficulty is now 73499048866.10 (+0.47%). Profit is now $6.12 per day
Difficulty is now 73818320248.30 (+0.43%). Profit is now $6.09 per day
Difficulty is now 74113325847.70 (+0.39%). Profit is now $6.06 per day
Difficulty is now 74385815635.60 (+0.36%). Profit is now $6.03 per day
Difficulty is now 74637427945.60 (+0.33%). Profit is now $6.00 per day
Difficulty is now 74869694270.30 (+0.31%). Profit is now $5.98 per day
Difficulty is now 75084044261.40 (+0.28%). Profit is now $5.96 per day
BREAK EVEN REACHED ON DAY 223!
Difficulty is now 75281810837.40 (+0.26%). Profit is now $5.94 per day
The block reward has halved. Profit is now $2.05 per day
Difficulty is now 75464235319.50 (+0.24%). Profit is now $2.04 per day
Difficulty is now 75632472533.60 (+0.22%). Profit is now $2.03 per day
Difficulty is now 75787595827.40 (+0.20%). Profit is now $2.02 per day
Difficulty is now 75930601965.10 (+0.18%). Profit is now $2.01 per day
Difficulty is now 76062415867.30 (+0.17%). Profit is now $2.01 per day
Difficulty is now 76183895177.40 (+0.15%). Profit is now $2.00 per day
Difficulty is now 76295834636.20 (+0.14%). Profit is now $2.00 per day
Difficulty is now 76398970256.40 (+0.13%). Profit is now $1.99 per day
Difficulty is now 76493983290.90 (+0.12%). Profit is now $1.99 per day
Difficulty is now 76581503991.90 (+0.11%). Profit is now $1.98 per day
Difficulty is now 76662115162.80 (+0.10%). Profit is now $1.98 per day
Difficulty is now 76736355504.70 (+0.09%). Profit is now $1.97 per day
Difficulty is now 76804722762.70 (+0.08%). Profit is now $1.97 per day
Difficulty is now 76867676678.20 (+0.08%). Profit is now $1.97 per day
Difficulty is now 76925641753.20 (+0.07%). Profit is now $1.96 per day
Difficulty is now 76979009836.20 (+0.06%). Profit is now $1.96 per day
Difficulty is now 77028142535.30 (+0.06%). Profit is now $1.96 per day
Difficulty is now 77073373469.30 (+0.05%). Profit is now $1.96 per day
Difficulty is now 77115010363.30 (+0.05%). Profit is now $1.96 per day
Difficulty is now 77153336999.60 (+0.04%). Profit is now $1.95 per day
Difficulty is now 77188615029.70 (+0.04%). Profit is now $1.95 per day
Difficulty is now 77221085657.70 (+0.04%). Profit is now $1.95 per day
Difficulty is now 77250971202.00 (+0.03%). Profit is now $1.95 per day
Difficulty is now 77278476543.50 (+0.03%). Profit is now $1.95 per day
Difficulty is now 77303790467.60 (+0.03%). Profit is now $1.95 per day
Difficulty is now 77327086906.40 (+0.03%). Profit is now $1.94 per day
End of simulation reached.

604 days have elapsed.
Your total revenue after hosting costs: 2217.02
Your net gain/loss: $821.52

"Difficulty Armageddon" simulation result, for the fun of it:

Code:

Simulation start: 
Difficulty is 68500000000.00. 
Profit is $6.71 per day.
Expected difficulty increase is 7.00%, with future increases changing by -2.00%.
Note that daily profit does include hosting cost.
Difficulty is now 73295000000.00 (+7.00%). Profit is now $6.11 per day
Difficulty is now 78323037000.00 (+6.86%). Profit is now $5.57 per day
Difficulty is now 83588538131.40 (+6.72%). Profit is now $5.07 per day
Difficulty is now 89095638568.10 (+6.58%). Profit is now $4.61 per day
Difficulty is now 94848167182.80 (+6.45%). Profit is now $4.20 per day
Difficulty is now 100849633342.66 (+6.32%). Profit is now $3.81 per day
Difficulty is now 107103214894.32 (+6.20%). Profit is now $3.46 per day
Difficulty is now 113611747382.30 (+6.07%). Profit is now $3.14 per day
Difficulty is now 120377714534.57 (+5.95%). Profit is now $2.85 per day
Difficulty is now 127403240041.81 (+5.83%). Profit is now $2.57 per day
Difficulty is now 134690080648.14 (+5.71%). Profit is now $2.32 per day
Difficulty is now 142239620562.84 (+5.60%). Profit is now $2.09 per day
Difficulty is now 150052867195.17 (+5.49%). Profit is now $1.87 per day
Difficulty is now 158130448206.38 (+5.38%). Profit is now $1.67 per day
Difficulty is now 166472609865.86 (+5.27%). Profit is now $1.49 per day
Difficulty is now 175079216691.71 (+5.16%). Profit is now $1.31 per day
Difficulty is now 183949752349.23 (+5.06%). Profit is now $1.15 per day
The block reward has halved. Profit is now $-0.33 per day
Miner is no longer profitable. Ending simulation

227 days have elapsed.
Your total revenue after hosting costs: 766.37
Your net gain/loss: $-629.12

Interestingly, even in that pretty insane worst case scenario you'll still recover most of your initial investment, without even factoring in resale value.

Of course, if you want a better simulator it'll need to factor in the decline in hosting/PSU costs and the inevitable decrease of difficulty that will happen after the halving. However, I think my calculator is probably the most accurate one out there (its just not very easy to use).

It might be interesting coming up with software that calculates the difficulty based on a distribution of hardware by maintenance cost, factoring in how new hardware coming into the market forces old hardware off.

Very interested, but I think we definitely need to have a clearer picture about the fees after 3 months and also the PSU lease situation as mentioned by klondike_bar. How about a yearly plan or an unlimited plan ending when the miner is no longer profitable?

Great North Data isn't setting firm dates on when their hosting rates are going down.

Finksy doesn't want to promise a specific rate after three months, and I don't blame him at all for that. He wants to see the board/PSU failure rates before he requotes (remember, he's promised to cover failures out of his own pocket). The one thing he has guaranteed is that rates won't go up. I know it's frustrating, but we will have to wait and see on that front.