All speculators invited: 2015/6 Price Prediction Contest. Win 0.44 BTC.

[oda.krell]

Reminder: Only 3 more days to submit an entry.

[oda.krell]

Somebody submitted an entry with lower and upper bound values switched around. Unless there's a clear objection to doing so, I'd like to accept the entry (with the values switched around), since it's pretty clear that it was intended to be the other way around.

Also, note to self: next time, set the form definitions to check for this stuff

[Wexlike]

Somebody submitted an entry with lower and upper bound values switched around. Unless there's a clear objection to doing so, I'd like to accept the entry (with the values switched around), since it's pretty clear that it was intended to be the other way around.

Also, note to self: next time, set the form definitions to check for this stuff

Oops. 

[oda.krell]

Final reminder:


Today's the last day of submitting an entry for the 2015/2016 price prediction contest -- and your last chance to win ~BTC0.44, in case you predict the 2016 price better than anyone else :)


13 hours, 12 minutes, 30 second left...

[sgbett]

542 Satoshis!?

A brother gotta be makin' real paper to draft those kinda currents!

[Kramerc]

I'm in!

[oda.krell]

Final reminder. (For real this time, no more spamming afterwards, promised :D)


(1) Link to the Google docs form to submit your prediction.

(2) Address to send the participation tx to.


3 hours 6 minutes left...

[NorrisK]

Will you share the amount of participants and their predictions with everybody?

That way everybody can check and confirm their entry

[oda.krell]

Will you share the amount of participants and their predictions with everybody?

That way everybody can check and confirm their entry

Of course. That was the plan all along, see:

Entries are submitted hidden through a form, but will be made public at the end of the submission period. Details follow below. If you're not a fan of long explanations, skip to the summary (in red) at the end of this post.

[oda.krell]

Submission period just ended. 8 valid submission (well, 7 completely valid, and one more after switching "upper" and "lower" values as mentioned above).

Here's the data, in order they were submitted. Players might want to check if I made mistake in copying from the form results. All values in USD.


Equus: 51,000 to 99,000                                                 

windjc: 650 to 750                                                 

sgbett: 2,600 to 5,400                                                 

NorrisK: 300 to 3,000                                                 

Wexlike: 1,000 to 2,600                                                 

Foxcoin: 3,000  to 5,999                                                 

Kramerc: 800 to 1,200                                                 

Spaceman_Spiff: 3,400 to 8,600


Here's the (now public) form summary.

If anyone wants to analyze the data, qualitative or quantitative, feel free to do so.

Thanks everyone for participating! Pleasure, as before :)

[P4ndoraBox7]

May I last minute join?

[oda.krell]

^ Sorry, wouldn't be fair to the others, mainly because you can see their entries now.

Next time :)

[P4ndoraBox7]

No prob, thank you.

[Wexlike]

Equus, what the fuck!?

Realisticly, Norrisk(no risk?) has the highest chance to win.

Thanks everyone for participating! Pleasure, as before

Thank you, oda.

[suda123]

Reminder: Only 3 more days to submit an entry.

Easy , $420 then $600-$700s then probably back down then a massive jump passed 900$. all before december.

[P4ndoraBox7]

Even if I dont participate... I would say 275 to 425 and a massive temporary crash in mid to end of january then stable from 260 to 295 in february.

[oda.krell]

Hehe, since we're doing 'outside competition' estimates anyway, mine is 350 to 800 on November 30th 2016. Which I guess places me into the more bearish crowd compared to some of the other estimates.

[sgbett]

check my figures! there were so few entries it didn't seem worth working out out programmatically so I just figured it out by hand, so inevitably there could be some human error

[sgbett]

for completeness sake... 

[oda.krell]

@sgbett

Looks great! That's exactly the kind of visualization I was hoping someone would do, so I wouldn't have to do it

Also, the "if price is in range X, Y wins" is a nice touch. Thanks a lot.