Bitcoin price cycles

[Blue_Tiger73]

Great charts, thanks!

Yeah. Really nice graphs bro. These really help me to understand how Bitcoin has risen and fallen. Really good work.

[1714124094]

1714124094

[Afrikoin]

Check this out.

Uncanny resemblance between bitcoin price chart trend and google 'Selfie' search trends

Obviously, the constant here is human beings and natural behaviour and I wouldn't dismiss how similar these two are, even an underlying explanation as to why both are similar.

INteresting! Look what i came across on google trends searches for 'Selfie'

[hacknoid]

So, given the discussion in this thread, and after analyzing the history and highlighting the cycles I have, I would say my thoughts are currently at about the following levels (and what I would expect the price to do in each case):

Scenario A: 50% - the cycle is playing out as described in my original post, with no changes in time.  I would expect a general trend upward, into the US$500 range by end of December and then peaking above the old ATH sometime in January next year (possibly double peak with an even higher ATH in February)
Scenario B: 20% - Cycle is more as RyNinDaCleM noticed, where we are currently in a compressed phase 2 of cycle 2 (will take longer to complete).  Price may reach into the $500s or $600s in December/January, but won't go over $1000 until we approach the halving in June
Scenario C: 20% - Cycle has been compressed, but is expanding out again as I highlighted as a "modified compressed" (in that case we are exiting phase 3 of cycle 2, and will soon begin cycle 3).  In this scenario price will likely stay $400-$500 or so into February, with another run-up beginning in March where we would exceed the previous ATH before June
Scenario D: 10% - All this so far has just been coincidence and there is no cycle.  This case would become more likely if the price doesn't reach $500 and/or drops back below $400 for a significant time [weeks+] over the next few months

[The Sceptical Chymist]

The price cannot be predicted. Only the major adoption news of bitcoin will increase the price. Nothing else.

I agree with this x infinity.  Bitcoin is not a stock that can be analyzed like a stock--though technical analysis believers think this is true.  Only if and until there is widespread adoption of bitcoin will the price 1) rise and 2) stabilize.  Everything else is just a bubble, and that can happen too. 

It's a nice analysis you did, but I'm not sure how true it's going to turn out to be.

[uki]

So, given the discussion in this thread, and after analyzing the history and highlighting the cycles I have, I would say my thoughts are currently at about the following levels (and what I would expect the price to do in each case):

Scenario A: 50% - the cycle is playing out as described in my original post, with no changes in time.  I would expect a general trend upward, into the US$500 range by end of December and then peaking above the old ATH sometime in January next year (possibly double peak with an even higher ATH in February)
Scenario B: 20% - Cycle is more as RyNinDaCleM noticed, where we are currently in a compressed phase 2 of cycle 2 (will take longer to complete).  Price may reach into the $500s or $600s in December/January, but won't go over $1000 until we approach the halving in June
Scenario C: 20% - Cycle has been compressed, but is expanding out again as I highlighted as a "modified compressed" (in that case we are exiting phase 3 of cycle 2, and will soon begin cycle 3).  In this scenario price will likely stay $400-$500 or so into February, with another run-up beginning in March where we would exceed the previous ATH before June
Scenario D: 10% - All this so far has just been coincidence and there is no cycle.  This case would become more likely if the price doesn't reach $500 and/or drops back below $400 for a significant time [weeks+] over the next few months

In my opinion B and C are more probable each than A due to timing. D should not be excluded either, due to the small amount of total data.
I would give the following distribution to the variants you provided:
a-20%, b-30%, c-25%, d-25%.

[hacknoid]

So, given the discussion in this thread, and after analyzing the history and highlighting the cycles I have, I would say my thoughts are currently at about the following levels (and what I would expect the price to do in each case):

Scenario A: 50% - the cycle is playing out as described in my original post, with no changes in time.  I would expect a general trend upward, into the US$500 range by end of December and then peaking above the old ATH sometime in January next year (possibly double peak with an even higher ATH in February)
Scenario B: 20% - Cycle is more as RyNinDaCleM noticed, where we are currently in a compressed phase 2 of cycle 2 (will take longer to complete).  Price may reach into the $500s or $600s in December/January, but won't go over $1000 until we approach the halving in June
Scenario C: 20% - Cycle has been compressed, but is expanding out again as I highlighted as a "modified compressed" (in that case we are exiting phase 3 of cycle 2, and will soon begin cycle 3).  In this scenario price will likely stay $400-$500 or so into February, with another run-up beginning in March where we would exceed the previous ATH before June
Scenario D: 10% - All this so far has just been coincidence and there is no cycle.  This case would become more likely if the price doesn't reach $500 and/or drops back below $400 for a significant time [weeks+] over the next few months

In my opinion B and C are more probable each than A due to timing. D should not be excluded either, due to the small amount of total data.
I would give the following distribution to the variants you provided:
a-20%, b-30%, c-25%, d-25%.

So pretty much even odds to all four outcomes at this point?  Could be; of course, I have to weigh my original proposal a bit higher. 

I think the main indicator will be when (or if) we reach the previous ATH:

A - January-March 2016
B - June-late 2016
C - March-June 2016
D - not at all in 2016

[Erkallys]

I find that this is quite amazing the regularity of the charts. Do anyone have a clue about this phenomenon ? Maybe some big players/exchanges playing again and again with the same scheme ?

[Afrikoin]

So, given the discussion in this thread, and after analyzing the history and highlighting the cycles I have, I would say my thoughts are currently at about the following levels (and what I would expect the price to do in each case):

Scenario A: 50% - the cycle is playing out as described in my original post, with no changes in time.  I would expect a general trend upward, into the US$500 range by end of December and then peaking above the old ATH sometime in January next year (possibly double peak with an even higher ATH in February)
Scenario B: 20% - Cycle is more as RyNinDaCleM noticed, where we are currently in a compressed phase 2 of cycle 2 (will take longer to complete).  Price may reach into the $500s or $600s in December/January, but won't go over $1000 until we approach the halving in June
Scenario C: 20% - Cycle has been compressed, but is expanding out again as I highlighted as a "modified compressed" (in that case we are exiting phase 3 of cycle 2, and will soon begin cycle 3).  In this scenario price will likely stay $400-$500 or so into February, with another run-up beginning in March where we would exceed the previous ATH before June
Scenario D: 10% - All this so far has just been coincidence and there is no cycle.  This case would become more likely if the price doesn't reach $500 and/or drops back below $400 for a significant time [weeks+] over the next few months

In my opinion B and C are more probable each than A due to timing. D should not be excluded either, due to the small amount of total data.
I would give the following distribution to the variants you provided:
a-20%, b-30%, c-25%, d-25%.

So pretty much even odds to all four outcomes at this point?  Could be; of course, I have to weigh my original proposal a bit higher. 

I think the main indicator will be when (or if) we reach the previous ATH:

A - January-March 2016
B - June-late 2016
C - March-June 2016
D - not at all in 2016

so much emphasis on the halving.

Does anyone consider it might not have an impact?Maybe it has been priced in, i mean, we all know exactly when the halving will occur. Kinda like the Fed raising rates this week.

Also, what if price impact of halving happens AFTER the event itself?

[uki]

In my opinion B and C are more probable each than A due to timing. D should not be excluded either, due to the small amount of total data.
I would give the following distribution to the variants you provided:
a-20%, b-30%, c-25%, d-25%.

So pretty much even odds to all four outcomes at this point?  Could be; of course, I have to weigh my original proposal a bit higher. 

I think the main indicator will be when (or if) we reach the previous ATH:

A - January-March 2016
B - June-late 2016
C - March-June 2016
D - not at all in 2016

I see it a bit differently. It is rather 75%-25% in favour of cycles.
Then choosing among a, b and c, I simply think that we won't grow that far in January in the first place, unless some big fundamental event is around the corner. I don't see it for now, I think more of the steam will come later in the spring, so it is between b and c. I favour b rather than c, as the market tend to give you usually the solution that is different that everybody is expecting. But we will be much wiser already in January.

[mirana12345]

Even tho it could just be coincidence, it sure is a nice analysis. I think we can all agree that the thing that binds these charts the most if the fact that each
time bitcoin price goes to bottom after the tanking, it ends up higher than it was on the previous round/cycle.
This just proves that bitcoin will continue to grow proportional with the passing time, which is great news for us hodlers.

[hacknoid]

I find that this is quite amazing the regularity of the charts. Do anyone have a clue about this phenomenon ? Maybe some big players/exchanges playing again and again with the same scheme ?

Well there are definitely factors that seem to come into play during each major price increase; for example, the initial run to $32 was likely a result of interest taken after the Gawker article on Silk Road.  The run to $256 occured after the first reward halving and possibly due to the interest in the Cypress bank bail-ins.  The $1200 peak occurred when interest from the Chinese was first beginning to peak, and seemed to get implicit approval from their government.  However, while these things almost certainly played into the price rises, it's hard to say for certain whether any particular event actually caused the rises.  People like to point to every price increase or decrease as occurring because of a specific reason, but sometimes I think that's just fabricating a reason.

This would also not explain the extended relatively flat periods in 2012 and 2015 and the downturns in 2011 and 2014.  This is where I think it's the underlying human tendencies that are affecting things.  People's attention changes, and it happen en masse.  A good example is the selfie chart posted recently in this thread; as interest in something spikes initially everyone jumps on the bandwagon.  Then after a while interest begins to fade and people move onto the next thing.  After a certain cooling off period interest can be renewed in the initial phenomenon if people are still talking about it.  That is what I believe happens here, where phase 1 of each cycle reflects initial interest or pent up demand, and then phase 2 reflects a rebound of an interest that hasn't yet run it's course.  By the time phase 3 happens people are losing interest or are distracted or disillusioned, and price reflects that.  It then takes a year or two before things are ready to start again.

As another example of interest cycles, look at fashion and societal trends.  It takes about 20 years for those cycles to repeat, which is why in the 90s we saw a resurgence of interest of the 70s (fashion, hair, nostalgia, music), then the 2000's saw a "flashback" to what was popular in the 80s, and now in the 2010s there has been more interest in the 90s again (and to a lesser degree the 70s).

Without a general sentiment in the market (generally bear or bull), individual events won't have a large lasting impacts.  Large buys or sells have more impact when they happen in the direction the market is moving anyway than when they move against it.  Same for news events.
 

[hacknoid]

so much emphasis on the halving.

Does anyone consider it might not have an impact?Maybe it has been priced in, i mean, we all know exactly when the halving will occur. Kinda like the Fed raising rates this week.

Also, what if price impact of halving happens AFTER the event itself?

I don't necessarily think it will be the halving itself that will cause these events; rather I mention it since it's a milestone that people are looking at.

If you look at the last halving, there was not much movement around the time of the halving itself (a slow trend upward), but there was quite a rise that followed.  Notice in the cycles I showed, it occurred very early in phase 1 of cycle 2, meaning that the market may have only been getting into real buill mode around that time, leading to the runup.

Personally, I think we will see some rise around that time.  No matter how much the market may have already priced this in, it will be a big hit to miners the day it happens, and they are now being run as large operations not small individuals like in the past.  That 50% drop in revenue from one day to the next is not like the fed raising rates by 0.25%.

[MaxTax]

I've seen the cycles but with this rise it don't append, let me clarify

- No rise was take such a 'long' period of time
- No rise was manipulated this much. Rise rise, sell, rise rise.

It seems all other rises were natural, and just this one manipulated..

[Afrikoin]

This

I find that this is quite amazing the regularity of the charts. Do anyone have a clue about this phenomenon ? Maybe some big players/exchanges playing again and again with the same scheme ?

Well there are definitely factors that seem to come into play during each major price increase; for example, the initial run to $32 was likely a result of interest taken after the Gawker article on Silk Road.  The run to $256 occured after the first reward halving and possibly due to the interest in the Cypress bank bail-ins.  The $1200 peak occurred when interest from the Chinese was first beginning to peak, and seemed to get implicit approval from their government.  However, while these things almost certainly played into the price rises, it's hard to say for certain whether any particular event actually caused the rises.  People like to point to every price increase or decrease as occurring because of a specific reason, but sometimes I think that's just fabricating a reason.

This would also not explain the extended relatively flat periods in 2012 and 2015 and the downturns in 2011 and 2014.  This is where I think it's the underlying human tendencies that are affecting things.  People's attention changes, and it happen en masse.  A good example is the selfie chart posted recently in this thread; as interest in something spikes initially everyone jumps on the bandwagon.  Then after a while interest begins to fade and people move onto the next thing.  After a certain cooling off period interest can be renewed in the initial phenomenon if people are still talking about it.  That is what I believe happens here, where phase 1 of each cycle reflects initial interest or pent up demand, and then phase 2 reflects a rebound of an interest that hasn't yet run it's course.  By the time phase 3 happens people are losing interest or are distracted or disillusioned, and price reflects that.  It then takes a year or two before things are ready to start again.

As another example of interest cycles, look at fashion and societal trends.  It takes about 20 years for those cycles to repeat, which is why in the 90s we saw a resurgence of interest of the 70s (fashion, hair, nostalgia, music), then the 2000's saw a "flashback" to what was popular in the 80s, and now in the 2010s there has been more interest in the 90s again (and to a lesser degree the 70s).

Without a general sentiment in the market (generally bear or bull), individual events won't have a large lasting impacts.  Large buys or sells have more impact when they happen in the direction the market is moving anyway than when they move against it.  Same for news events.
 

[hacknoid]

So, given the discussion in this thread, and after analyzing the history and highlighting the cycles I have, I would say my thoughts are currently at about the following levels (and what I would expect the price to do in each case):

Scenario A: 50% - the cycle is playing out as described in my original post, with no changes in time.  I would expect a general trend upward, into the US$500 range by end of December and then peaking above the old ATH sometime in January next year (possibly double peak with an even higher ATH in February)
Scenario B: 20% - Cycle is more as RyNinDaCleM noticed, where we are currently in a compressed phase 2 of cycle 2 (will take longer to complete).  Price may reach into the $500s or $600s in December/January, but won't go over $1000 until we approach the halving in June
Scenario C: 20% - Cycle has been compressed, but is expanding out again as I highlighted as a "modified compressed" (in that case we are exiting phase 3 of cycle 2, and will soon begin cycle 3).  In this scenario price will likely stay $400-$500 or so into February, with another run-up beginning in March where we would exceed the previous ATH before June
Scenario D: 10% - All this so far has just been coincidence and there is no cycle.  This case would become more likely if the price doesn't reach $500 and/or drops back below $400 for a significant time [weeks+] over the next few months

Just to finish up this thought, here are my current thoughts on the likelihood of various prices, based on the discussions in this thread (and my feelings):

Code:

December 2015		January 2016		February 2016		March 2016		April 2016		May 2016		June 2016
 10% <$400		 10% <$400		 10% <$400	         10% <$400		 10% <$400		 10% <$400		 10% <$400
*90% $400-$500		 20% $400-$500		 20% $400-$500		 20% $500-$600		 20% $500-$600		 20% $500-$600		 20% $500-$600
 70% $500-$600		 20% $500-$600		 20% $500-$600		 40% $600-$1000		 40% $600-$1000		 40% $600-$1000		 40% $600-$1500 
 ~0% $600+		*50% $600-$4000		*50% $600-$4000		*70% $1000-$1500	 20% $1000-$1500	 20% $1000-$1500	*50% $1500+
									 50% $1500-$3000	*50% $1500+		*50% $1500+		

[greBit]

So, given the discussion in this thread, and after analyzing the history and highlighting the cycles I have, I would say my thoughts are currently at about the following levels (and what I would expect the price to do in each case):

Scenario A: 50% - the cycle is playing out as described in my original post, with no changes in time.  I would expect a general trend upward, into the US$500 range by end of December and then peaking above the old ATH sometime in January next year (possibly double peak with an even higher ATH in February)
Scenario B: 20% - Cycle is more as RyNinDaCleM noticed, where we are currently in a compressed phase 2 of cycle 2 (will take longer to complete).  Price may reach into the $500s or $600s in December/January, but won't go over $1000 until we approach the halving in June
Scenario C: 20% - Cycle has been compressed, but is expanding out again as I highlighted as a "modified compressed" (in that case we are exiting phase 3 of cycle 2, and will soon begin cycle 3).  In this scenario price will likely stay $400-$500 or so into February, with another run-up beginning in March where we would exceed the previous ATH before June
Scenario D: 10% - All this so far has just been coincidence and there is no cycle.  This case would become more likely if the price doesn't reach $500 and/or drops back below $400 for a significant time [weeks+] over the next few months

Just to finish up this thought, here are my current thoughts on the likelihood of various prices, based on the discussions in this thread (and my feelings):

Code:

December 2015		January 2016		February 2016		March 2016		April 2016		May 2016		June 2016
 10% <$400		 10% <$400		 10% <$400	         10% <$400		 10% <$400		 10% <$400		 10% <$400
*90% $400-$500		 20% $400-$500		 20% $400-$500		 20% $500-$600		 20% $500-$600		 20% $500-$600		 20% $500-$600
 70% $500-$600		 20% $500-$600		 20% $500-$600		 40% $600-$1000		 40% $600-$1000		 40% $600-$1000		 40% $600-$1500 
 ~0% $600+		*50% $600-$4000		*50% $600-$4000		*70% $1000-$1500	 20% $1000-$1500	 20% $1000-$1500	*50% $1500+
									 50% $1500-$3000	*50% $1500+		*50% $1500+		

I would say the prediction till January 2016 will be true but there might be a price dip after January 2016 as per my experience about Bitcoin but still let's hope this stats above goes right

[LuckyYOU]

So, given the discussion in this thread, and after analyzing the history and highlighting the cycles I have, I would say my thoughts are currently at about the following levels (and what I would expect the price to do in each case):

Scenario A: 50% - the cycle is playing out as described in my original post, with no changes in time.  I would expect a general trend upward, into the US$500 range by end of December and then peaking above the old ATH sometime in January next year (possibly double peak with an even higher ATH in February)
Scenario B: 20% - Cycle is more as RyNinDaCleM noticed, where we are currently in a compressed phase 2 of cycle 2 (will take longer to complete).  Price may reach into the $500s or $600s in December/January, but won't go over $1000 until we approach the halving in June
Scenario C: 20% - Cycle has been compressed, but is expanding out again as I highlighted as a "modified compressed" (in that case we are exiting phase 3 of cycle 2, and will soon begin cycle 3).  In this scenario price will likely stay $400-$500 or so into February, with another run-up beginning in March where we would exceed the previous ATH before June
Scenario D: 10% - All this so far has just been coincidence and there is no cycle.  This case would become more likely if the price doesn't reach $500 and/or drops back below $400 for a significant time [weeks+] over the next few months

Just to finish up this thought, here are my current thoughts on the likelihood of various prices, based on the discussions in this thread (and my feelings):

Code:

December 2015		January 2016		February 2016		March 2016		April 2016		May 2016		June 2016
 10% <$400		 10% <$400		 10% <$400	         10% <$400		 10% <$400		 10% <$400		 10% <$400
*90% $400-$500		 20% $400-$500		 20% $400-$500		 20% $500-$600		 20% $500-$600		 20% $500-$600		 20% $500-$600
 70% $500-$600		 20% $500-$600		 20% $500-$600		 40% $600-$1000		 40% $600-$1000		 40% $600-$1000		 40% $600-$1500 
 ~0% $600+		*50% $600-$4000		*50% $600-$4000		*70% $1000-$1500	 20% $1000-$1500	 20% $1000-$1500	*50% $1500+
									 50% $1500-$3000	*50% $1500+		*50% $1500+		

I would say the prediction till January 2016 will be true but there might be a price dip after January 2016 as per my experience about Bitcoin but still let's hope this stats above goes right

I think that if the price goes up in January that there will be a dip until mid February. It will probably be around $450.
That's my speculation. I think bitcoin will go up to $700 next month and over the several months to come we'll have a resistance around that number.

[hacknoid]

It's been about a month since the last update of the charts, so here they are with the latest data.  First, the updated chart of my original 900 day cycle:



DISCUSSION:
We are getting close to the end of phase 1 of cycle 3 in this interpretation.  We have about 2 months to go, and have not yet passed the previous ATH, as we did in each of the previous cycles' first phase.  Note that the peaks just before Christmas as well as last week were actually higher than the point when we reached the local maximum back in November.  This is explained by the fact that the number I am using are the daily volume-weighted prices, not the daily highs.  I think daily weighted prices make more sense since they are not swayed by a sudden temporary spike, but rather represent the true trend.  As such, we are still in a general upward trend since September 2015.


Overlaying the highlighted points looks like this (actually did this one about a week ago):


DISCUSSION:
I have highlighted what might correspond to areas A and B in the charts, though its not clear.  In fact A and B might not be distinct enough, but rather may be the same part.  Doesn't really matter.  What it would suggest is we still may have a sudden, short-term dip (C) upcoming, somewhere into the low-mid $300s., which would be followed by a rise to above the previous high point of this cycle.  At this point, cycle 3 is looking more like cycle 1 than cycle 2.


Now the option with a compressed period, as suggested by RyNinDaCleM:


DISCUSSION:
If this scenario plays out, we would be in for a long upcoming period of general sideways movement, with price rise being pretty much done with for the current and upcoming period.


And finally a variant on the last scenario, with a compressed period followed by an elongated period (proposing that we will converge back to the original 900 day cycle):


DISCUSSION:
This one is interesting, as it would suggest we have just entered into Cycle 3.  It would predict that we still have some major price gains to come in the next couple months, including a peak well over the previous ATH.

[hacknoid]

I've been giving a lot of thought over the past few weeks about how to explain both variations in the cycles and similarities.  As I mentioned in the initial post, I think it is human nature behind it all, primarily the way that human psyche will forget past events, grow interest over time, and basically follow cycles.  However, it also got me wondering what are the other main factors that may be driving the price?

Clearly the implosion of Mt. Gox and the crackdown by China's government back in 2014 played into the long downtrend in price.  But I think these are just some specific example of general factors that I believe come into play.  Below I'll outline what I can think of in terms of the major factors; there are also numerous smaller factors, but I think large trends are driven by the large factors.

Factor: Interest
Affect: Positive
I think there is a general increase in interest over time.  This is closely tied to amount of public awareness, but I'll classify it in general terms as interest in the technology and/or currency.  I think this is more or less constantly increasing. 

Factor: Adoption Rates
Affect: Positive
This includes both user adoption rates (measurable by the number of online wallets or wallet app downloads) as well as business adoption rates (Coinbase and Bitpay customers) as well as availability of Bitcoin ATMs.

Factor: Price
Affect: Positive or Negative
Large price drops result in more nervous traders, while big price gains results in FOMO. 

Factor: Media coverage
Affect: Positive or Negative
In general I think "there is no such thing as negative exposure", but certainly in terms of whether people want to put their money into something the affect can be either positive or negative.

Factor: Competition/Distraction
Affect: Negative
Previously, especially from mid-2013 through mid-2014, this has included altcoins (notably Litecoin and Dogecoin).  Also includes competing digital payment technologies such as Ripple, Stellar and Venmo as well as digital payment interfaces such as Apple Pay and Samsung Pay.  In 2015 the big "competition" was from Blockchain in general, with the thought that Bitcoin was not required, but rather just use the tech without the coin.

Factor: Controversy
Affect: Negative
Currently this is the scaling debates and all the mudslinging going on over that.  Previously it would include the "51% attack" concerns.

Factor: Government Legislation
Affect: Mostly bad
Sometimes the clarification of rules provided by governments has been positive (such as Germany's tax rules), but in general there has been lots of "banning", either real or perceived, but governments such as China, Russia and Thailand.


I'm currently trying to figure out how to best "measure" these factors, if that can indeed be done.  I'd love to try to plot them all together to see what the net affect might look like, and how that would correlate (or not) to actual prices.

[hacknoid]

I have highlighted what might correspond to areas A and B in the charts, though its not clear.  In fact A and B might not be distinct enough, but rather may be the same part.  Doesn't really matter.  What it would suggest is we still may have a sudden, short-term dip (C) upcoming, somewhere into the low-mid $300s., which would be followed by a rise to above the previous high point of this cycle.  At this point, cycle 3 is looking more like cycle 1 than cycle 2.

Well, and there it is, I would say.  The corresponding points are getting more clear, although I would still say A (if it really is a trend) is harder to match.  However, we seem to have clearly just hit point C.  If so, this would indicate upcoming is a rise, followed by another relatively flat period.