Bitcoin price cycles

[Fakhoury]

April 2016 updated graphs:

Cycle chart:




With highlights:




Just cycle3 so far (linear scale):




And for reference, the first two full cycles (linear - different scales):





As cycles go, we should be reaching the end of section D very soon.  If previous cycle trends hold, the next thing would be another rise.  This corresponds nicely to the halving which is upcoming (~3 months from now).

Hey Hacknoid,

At first I would like to thank you for this thread and for letting some novice in charts like me, understand it easily.

I've few questions to ask if you don't mind.

1. When should section D ends ? And what ends it exactly ?

2. I see in your charts that you try to relate future and past bitcoin cycles together although a lot of people say that past performance of price is not a must to replicate a future performance especially when we take about TA charts, what do you think ?

Thank you

[talks_cheep]

1. When should section D ends ? And what ends it exactly ?

2. I see in your charts that you try to relate future and past bitcoin cycles together although a lot of people say that past performance of price is not a must to replicate a future performance especially when we take about TA charts, what do you think ?

@Fuckhoury, u don't know sh1t and u suckz ballz!!!

[josegines]

Thanks for update!

You have a forecast of the maximum value that could reach the new cycle ?. I think you said you hoped that the next peak was much lower.

[hacknoid]

I've few questions to ask if you don't mind.

1. When should section D ends ? And what ends it exactly ?

Don't forget when looking at these charts, this is based purely on observance.  Based on what appears to be the repeating cycles, I am hypothesizing that the cycle repeats based on the fact of the way the human psyche works (memory of past events changes/gets forgotten/rosier, etc.), natural interest levels change over time, and media attention changes.  (See earlier posts in this thread for more on the natural nature).  As such, we appear to be repeating again, on roughly the same scale.

Now, to answer your question - it looks to me like section D should be ending soon (read: anytime in the next 4 months)... that is based on past cycle history, other TA in this subforum, history of price after the last halving, and "gut feel".  The only real indication the cycle theory gives me is that we should have another boom/bust (relatively speaking) cycle complete by the time phase 2 ends, in January 2017.  Along these lines, I would expect a significant run-up probably before September, with some pull-back before the end of 2016.  As to what ends it?  Nobody knows; my best guess is that buildup up buying pressure and FOMO will get to be too much such that all it needs is a trigger to start moving. 

2. I see in your charts that you try to relate future and past bitcoin cycles together although a lot of people say that past performance of price is not a must to replicate a future performance especially when we take about TA charts, what do you think ?

Past history definitely does not dictate future performance.  However, I believe in the repetitive nature of nature in general and humans in particular.  There are far too many factors and interests involved to know exactly what will happen, and things can still change on a dime, but conditions are right for a repeat of past general trends.  So, as I said at the beginning, don't bet money on this; Bitcoin is, if nothing else, unpredictable. 

Most TA tends to operate on the short terms (hours/days, maybe into weeks).  I'm looking at long term trends, into months and over years.  Looking at how natural cycles tend to repeat over longer time scales, I think there is basis for this.  However, it's still impossible to point to specific events that tend to have long term effects (even Mike Hearn's missive in January didn't affect the long term trends in price).

[hacknoid]

Thanks for update!

You have a forecast of the maximum value that could reach the new cycle ?. I think you said you hoped that the next peak was much lower.

Wish I had a better idea.. previously in phase 1 and 2 of each cycle we reached a new ATH, so I was hoping for the same last phase, but we didn't achieve that.  In fact, the ratio of end price to starting price in the phase was still decreasing

Cycle 1 Phase 1 : start: $0.01, max: $1.06 (106x), end: $0.79 (79x)
Cycle 2 Phase 1 : start: $12.06, max: $214.86 (17.8x), end: $127.26 (10.6x)
Cycle 3 Phase 1 : start: $240.26, max: $461.49 (1.9x), end: $405.06 (1.7x)

I haven't worked out the relative entry/exit prices for phase 2 yet, but even if it's only around 2x again, that would potentially put a peak higher than that, around or maybe above the previous ATH.  Of course I would love to see that, but at this point I would have no idea.  (My optimism says $2000+ for peak, but I tend to be a pretty optimistic person!)

[hacknoid]

Had a few minutes, so I looked up the numbers for phase 2 of each of the previous cycles; they are:

Cycle 1 Phase 2 : start: $0.78, max: $29.58 (37.9x), end: $5.74 (7.4x)
Cycle 2 Phase 2 : start: $125.47, max: $1,132.29    (9.0x), end: $621.93   (5.0x)
Cycle 3 Phase 2 : start: $410.17

Interesting that again, the amount of increase is less in cycle 2 than in cycle 1.  May be indicative of a smaller increase this time, too, although things don't seem top be indicating this, as far as I can tell.  I think we will get an increase, but not necessarily less than cycle 2.

Note that given the recent price uptick and away from that long period of stability, we may be transitioning into section E of the graphs.  Each previous time there was a gradual start to increase, before price really took off.

[Fakhoury]

Had a few minutes, so I looked up the numbers for phase 2 of each of the previous cycles; they are:

Cycle 1 Phase 2 : start: $0.78, max: $29.58 (37.9x), end: $5.74 (7.4x)
Cycle 2 Phase 2 : start: $125.47, max: $1,132.29    (9.0x), end: $621.93   (5.0x)
Cycle 3 Phase 2 : start: $410.17

Interesting that again, the amount of increase is less in cycle 2 than in cycle 1.  May be indicative of a smaller increase this time, too, although things don't seem top be indicating this, as far as I can tell.  I think we will get an increase, but not necessarily less than cycle 2.

Note that given the recent price uptick and away from that long period of stability, we may be transitioning into section E of the graphs.  Each previous time there was a gradual start to increase, before price really took off.

At first, thank you hacknoid for your replies on my previous questions, time again for a single question this time

1. When you will be sure that we've entered phase E finally ?

Thanks buddy.

[hacknoid]

At first, thank you hacknoid for your replies on my previous questions, time again for a single question this time

1. When you will be sure that we've entered phase E finally ?

Thanks buddy.

No problem... hoping to keep this thread interesting, if nothing else!

That question is a hard one... these things really haven't become clear until they are over and done with.  However, looking at the rises in the past in phase 2, they both occurred over the course of about 1 month.  So I would say a significant increase over the course of a week, say about 30%, or more would be pretty indicative we are in E.  50% or more would pretty much confirm it for me.

[hacknoid]

So, I noticed something else interesting.  I took the ratios of the values in Phase 1 for max and end prices (ratio of max/start and end/start), and plotted them on a graph.  Linearly doesn't work, but on an exponential axis the trend is remarkably clear through three cycles:



Notice here that there is a very definite trend in decreasing price ratios, and also that the trend lines are virtually parallel, meaning the ratio of max price to end price is also pretty consistent. 

So what happens with Phase 2 data?  Here you go, with trend lines plotted:



Well now that doesn't work.  This indicates that the end price would be greater than the max price, which clearly is not possible.  However, it is possible to get a value that closely works:



Choosing 3x for both the max and end price results in a reasonable plot.  However, these lines clearly are not anywhere near parallel, and this would not hold for a 4th cycle, even if it works for this time.

So, it indicates to me two possibilities:  either a max occuring at the end of this cycle (Jan 2017), or else Bitcoin is going to do something completely unexpected on this time around (at least in terms of price ratio increase).  Even in the former case, it looks like the trend is changing, and next time could be anything.

Note I still am expecting a rise in price this phase, but maybe it will actually be greater than last time... 

[lissandra]

Had a few minutes, so I looked up the numbers for phase 2 of each of the previous cycles; they are:

Cycle 1 Phase 2 : start: $0.78, max: $29.58 (37.9x), end: $5.74 (7.4x)
Cycle 2 Phase 2 : start: $125.47, max: $1,132.29    (9.0x), end: $621.93   (5.0x)
Cycle 3 Phase 2 : start: $410.17

Interesting that again, the amount of increase is less in cycle 2 than in cycle 1.  May be indicative of a smaller increase this time, too, although things don't seem top be indicating this, as far as I can tell.  I think we will get an increase, but not necessarily less than cycle 2.

Note that given the recent price uptick and away from that long period of stability, we may be transitioning into section E of the graphs.  Each previous time there was a gradual start to increase, before price really took off.

Despite the phase of each cycle.

Do you feel like we will hit $1k in phase 4? Since the halving or no? Im including all exchanges including chinas, after the halving is done.

[Vastraint]

Had a few minutes, so I looked up the numbers for phase 2 of each of the previous cycles; they are:

Cycle 1 Phase 2 : start: $0.78, max: $29.58 (37.9x), end: $5.74 (7.4x)
Cycle 2 Phase 2 : start: $125.47, max: $1,132.29    (9.0x), end: $621.93   (5.0x)
Cycle 3 Phase 2 : start: $410.17

Interesting that again, the amount of increase is less in cycle 2 than in cycle 1.  May be indicative of a smaller increase this time, too, although things don't seem top be indicating this, as far as I can tell.  I think we will get an increase, but not necessarily less than cycle 2.

Note that given the recent price uptick and away from that long period of stability, we may be transitioning into section E of the graphs.  Each previous time there was a gradual start to increase, before price really took off.

Despite the phase of each cycle.

Do you feel like we will hit $1k in phase 4? Since the halving or no? Im including all exchanges including chinas, after the halving is done.

It does not if it has phase or not. As long as there are mass adoption of the bitcoin, the price will rise eventually.

[hacknoid]

Had a few minutes, so I looked up the numbers for phase 2 of each of the previous cycles; they are:

Cycle 1 Phase 2 : start: $0.78, max: $29.58 (37.9x), end: $5.74 (7.4x)
Cycle 2 Phase 2 : start: $125.47, max: $1,132.29    (9.0x), end: $621.93   (5.0x)
Cycle 3 Phase 2 : start: $410.17

Interesting that again, the amount of increase is less in cycle 2 than in cycle 1.  May be indicative of a smaller increase this time, too, although things don't seem top be indicating this, as far as I can tell.  I think we will get an increase, but not necessarily less than cycle 2.

Note that given the recent price uptick and away from that long period of stability, we may be transitioning into section E of the graphs.  Each previous time there was a gradual start to increase, before price really took off.

Despite the phase of each cycle.

Do you feel like we will hit $1k in phase 4? Since the halving or no? Im including all exchanges including chinas, after the halving is done.

My personal feeling is regardless of what happens before the halving, unless we hit a new ATH before then (and even then possibly still), we will see a significant increase on the order of 2x or more in the months following the halving.  Given the current price we are at, I expect $1000 before the end of 2016 quite likely.  The real question is as we approach the previous ATH, what will happen?  I say we either stay below it (~$1000 range) or rocket past is ($2000+).  Again, all of this to happen before year end.

(Note all my prices are US $, based on graphs produced from Bitstamp only.  However, all the exchanges follow similar trends these days, even though the specific numbers may vary)

[Fakhoury]

Had a few minutes, so I looked up the numbers for phase 2 of each of the previous cycles; they are:

Cycle 1 Phase 2 : start: $0.78, max: $29.58 (37.9x), end: $5.74 (7.4x)
Cycle 2 Phase 2 : start: $125.47, max: $1,132.29    (9.0x), end: $621.93   (5.0x)
Cycle 3 Phase 2 : start: $410.17

Interesting that again, the amount of increase is less in cycle 2 than in cycle 1.  May be indicative of a smaller increase this time, too, although things don't seem top be indicating this, as far as I can tell.  I think we will get an increase, but not necessarily less than cycle 2.

Note that given the recent price uptick and away from that long period of stability, we may be transitioning into section E of the graphs.  Each previous time there was a gradual start to increase, before price really took off.

Despite the phase of each cycle.

Do you feel like we will hit $1k in phase 4? Since the halving or no? Im including all exchanges including chinas, after the halving is done.

My personal feeling is regardless of what happens before the halving, unless we hit a new ATH before then (and even then possibly still), we will see a significant increase on the order of 2x or more in the months following the halving.  Given the current price we are at, I expect $1000 before the end of 2016 quite likely.  The real question is as we approach the previous ATH, what will happen?  I say we either stay below it (~$1000 range) or rocket past is ($2000+).  Again, all of this to happen before year end.

(Note all my prices are US $, based on graphs produced from Bitstamp only.  However, all the exchanges follow similar trends these days, even though the specific numbers may vary)

I don't think the price will stay behind the $1K, why would it ?

[hacknoid]

Had a few minutes, so I looked up the numbers for phase 2 of each of the previous cycles; they are:

Cycle 1 Phase 2 : start: $0.78, max: $29.58 (37.9x), end: $5.74 (7.4x)
Cycle 2 Phase 2 : start: $125.47, max: $1,132.29    (9.0x), end: $621.93   (5.0x)
Cycle 3 Phase 2 : start: $410.17

Interesting that again, the amount of increase is less in cycle 2 than in cycle 1.  May be indicative of a smaller increase this time, too, although things don't seem top be indicating this, as far as I can tell.  I think we will get an increase, but not necessarily less than cycle 2.

Note that given the recent price uptick and away from that long period of stability, we may be transitioning into section E of the graphs.  Each previous time there was a gradual start to increase, before price really took off.

Despite the phase of each cycle.

Do you feel like we will hit $1k in phase 4? Since the halving or no? Im including all exchanges including chinas, after the halving is done.

My personal feeling is regardless of what happens before the halving, unless we hit a new ATH before then (and even then possibly still), we will see a significant increase on the order of 2x or more in the months following the halving.  Given the current price we are at, I expect $1000 before the end of 2016 quite likely.  The real question is as we approach the previous ATH, what will happen?  I say we either stay below it (~$1000 range) or rocket past is ($2000+).  Again, all of this to happen before year end.

(Note all my prices are US $, based on graphs produced from Bitstamp only.  However, all the exchanges follow similar trends these days, even though the specific numbers may vary)

I don't think the price will stay behind the $1K, why would it ?

I honestly can't see why it would stay below it either; however there are always unknowns, especially if people are nervous about all the scaling talk.   There is a resistance level around the previous ATH, which may slow down the price.  My gut says we will go past the previous ATH and thus above $2K or more; however, I guess I am trying to curb my optimism a bit.   From everything I can see we are headed up, but it's always the unknowns that get you.

[kehtolo]

Hi hacknoid!

Is there any chance you can draw us an update of cycle 3 (in log) to reflect the recent runup, whenever you get the time please?

I think it would be nice to see if 'the slope of the rise' (for want of a better description) lines up in any way with the previous charts.

[hacknoid]

Hi hacknoid!

Is there any chance you can draw us an update of cycle 3 (in log) to reflect the recent runup, whenever you get the time please?

I think it would be nice to see if 'the slope of the rise' (for want of a better description) lines up in any way with the previous charts.

Ask, and ye shall receive 



Not really a whole lot to see yet; not really going to be noticeable until we pass above $600 or so.  As I said earlier, it would take at least a 30% or so rise in a week to start to really indicate the next rise beginning.  However, the current increase looks like the price is starting to shake up a bit, which at this point in past cycles has signaled we are approaching a significant rise in price.

As others pointed out in other threads, we had really low volume so far on the current rise.  One possibility is it's just miners holding back some coins in anticipation of price rise after the halving?  Or maybe just manipulation.  Who knows...

[hacknoid]

Hmmm... something familiar looking about this....

[Fakhoury]

Hmmm... something familiar looking about this....

Deja Vu or this supports what we both trying to stress on (incoming rally) ?

[hacknoid]

Hmmm... something familiar looking about this....

Deja Vu or this supports what we both trying to stress on (incoming rally) ?

Looks an awful lot like the "false starts" we had before the previous rallies. 

[Fakhoury]

Hmmm... something familiar looking about this....

Deja Vu or this supports what we both trying to stress on (incoming rally) ?

Looks an awful lot like the "false starts" we had before the previous rallies. 

Can't agree more, but I saw something, I don't know you saw it also or not, will we doom from 2011-2012 peak or have a what we can say (mild) doom like the one in 2013-2014 ?