Bitcoin price cycles

[hacknoid]

Hmmm... something familiar looking about this....

Deja Vu or this supports what we both trying to stress on (incoming rally) ?

Looks an awful lot like the "false starts" we had before the previous rallies. 

Can't agree more, but I saw something, I don't know you saw it also or not, will we doom from 2011-2012 peak or have a what we can say (mild) doom like the one in 2013-2014 ?

You mean the fallback that occurs after each peak?  That will be inevitable... happens every time.  Price will run up to some point, and then retreat back to stabilize somewhere higher than when it started.  Generally, from what I noticed on the charts, it's about halfway between the price before the run-up and the peak level (2011 was a much larger drop, but again it finished higher than it started).   There's always lots of furious trading in this period, and the price fluctuates wildly.  Expect that again after we reach the next peak. 

The only question is - how high will the peak be?  The higher it is, the higher the fallback price will be, but also the larger the amount of drop.  For example, consider a $1000 rise (to ~$1450).  The price will likely fall back to around $950 in this case ($500 drop from peak).  However if the rise is by $2000 (to $2450), the fallback will be to around $1450 (a $1000 drop in price). 

All part of the cycles.

[hacknoid]

It's time... not confirmed yet, but if this continues, then it fits right in.

[zimmah]

this years bull run seems a bit shy

oh well, you know what they say about shy girls

(except bulls are male).

[hacknoid]

Things only become clear after the fact... This looks more correct now.

[lister storm]

Things only become clear after the fact... This looks more correct now.

thats crazy, according to those pictures the price should rise 6 times if the history will repeat itself, that would be an insane rise as the price would go to 3 thousand dollars per bitcoin

i hope that is true and bitcoin will reach a price that is bigger 3 times than the last all time high, this would definitely attract a lot of people to bitcoin as everyone would want to invest

[jehst]

The magnitude of the moves may decrease as time goes by.

[Fakhoury]

Things only become clear after the fact... This looks more correct now.

Hacknoid, my buddy, hope you are doing well

Could you elaborate more please on what you said ?

[hacknoid]

Hacknoid, my buddy, hope you are doing well

Could you elaborate more please on what you said ?

Doing well, thanks!  Hope same for you!

Historically, this is looking like the initial (small) rise that occurred in each of the two previous cycles.  It was followed by a realtively sideways period, followed by a significant rise.

The magnitude of the moves may decrease as time goes by.

It has so far in each cycle... In cycle 1 this most recent rise in price increased by ~99%.  Cycle 2 it was 56%, and Cycle 3 it has been 22%.   The large increase following in cycle 1 was  710%; in cycle 2 it was 455%.  Keeping the same trend, in cycle 3 it might be 200-300%.  But who know?  It'll be interesting to see where it goes.  I do believe that with the halvening we are likely to see some increase.  But exactly how much is anybody's guess.  But history is hinting at something significant!

[afbitcoins]

Things only become clear after the fact... This looks more correct now.

Hacknoid, my buddy, hope you are doing well

Could you elaborate more please on what you said ?

Nice!

[Fakhoury]

Hacknoid, my buddy, hope you are doing well

Could you elaborate more please on what you said ?

Doing well, thanks!  Hope same for you!

Historically, this is looking like the initial (small) rise that occurred in each of the two previous cycles.  It was followed by a realtively sideways period, followed by a significant rise.

The magnitude of the moves may decrease as time goes by.

It has so far in each cycle... In cycle 1 this most recent rise in price increased by ~99%.  Cycle 2 it was 56%, and Cycle 3 it has been 22%.   The large increase following in cycle 1 was  710%; in cycle 2 it was 455%.  Keeping the same trend, in cycle 3 it might be 200-300%.  But who know?  It'll be interesting to see where it goes.  I do believe that with the halvening we are likely to see some increase.  But exactly how much is anybody's guess.  But history is hinting at something significant!

Thank you my dear friend.

Then I see that you can confirm that we are most probably will see a new ATH soon, am I right ?

If you don't mind, using charts and your knowledge, what could be the range of the ATH, $2K - $5K ?

Side note : Check your favorite thread, if you know what I mean

Things only become clear after the fact... This looks more correct now.

Hacknoid, my buddy, hope you are doing well

Could you elaborate more please on what you said ?

Nice!

Check your quote next time bro

[hacknoid]

Hacknoid, my buddy, hope you are doing well

Could you elaborate more please on what you said ?

Doing well, thanks!  Hope same for you!

Historically, this is looking like the initial (small) rise that occurred in each of the two previous cycles.  It was followed by a realtively sideways period, followed by a significant rise.

The magnitude of the moves may decrease as time goes by.

It has so far in each cycle... In cycle 1 this most recent rise in price increased by ~99%.  Cycle 2 it was 56%, and Cycle 3 it has been 22%.   The large increase following in cycle 1 was  710%; in cycle 2 it was 455%.  Keeping the same trend, in cycle 3 it might be 200-300%.  But who know?  It'll be interesting to see where it goes.  I do believe that with the halvening we are likely to see some increase.  But exactly how much is anybody's guess.  But history is hinting at something significant!

Thank you my dear friend.

Then I see that you can confirm that we are most probably will see a new ATH soon, am I right ?

If you don't mind, using charts and your knowledge, what could be the range of the ATH, $2K - $5K ?

Ooh... that's a tough one.  As I've maintained all along, I think the trend is repetitive, but it's hard to say if the relative peaks will continue trends.  That is, even though we have reached new ATHs in previous cycles, we failed to do so in phase 1 of cycle 3.  Thus no guarantees we will actually do so in phase 2.

However, that being said, my gut would say with all the conditions right now, we are ripe to pass the previous ATH.  And that would likely in itself fuel further momentum.  So my gut feeling says peak of maybe $2k-$3k before falling back to around $1500 longer term.

Side note : Check your favorite thread, if you know what I mean

Already did... thanks for updating it!  Always enjoy seeing the positive news.

[angaper]

Very interesting analysis, but I am very skeptical about the relevance of technical analysis to predict the future behavior. And this is especially applicable to the bitcoin performance because of its very recent appearance in the financial and technological world.

[jehst]

Things only become clear after the fact... This looks more correct now.

Can you add more dates? When does this predict a peak? Sometime this summer, right?

[Fakhoury]

I want to take the chance since you are online now, is this it ?

Will reply to your latest reply ASAP.

[Raize]

The magnitude of the moves may decrease as time goes by.

In my experience it's a time/volume tradeoff. The longer it takes, the higher the magnitude. It's funny because Benoit Mandelbrot talked about this in The (Mis)Behavior of Markets and seemed to indicate there was some algorithm behind these sorts of "repeats". His theories are so anti-modern finance though, that most people ignored what he had to say.

That doesn't mean enterprising Bitcoin traders aren't taking advantage of it or evolving on what he started, though.

[jehst]

The magnitude of the moves may decrease as time goes by.

In my experience it's a time/volume tradeoff. The longer it takes, the higher the magnitude. It's funny because Benoit Mandelbrot talked about this in The (Mis)Behavior of Markets and seemed to indicate there was some algorithm behind these sorts of "repeats". His theories are so anti-modern finance though, that most people ignored what he had to say.

That doesn't mean enterprising Bitcoin traders aren't taking advantage of it or evolving on what he started, though.

I think that's true. But there's another principle at work: the larger something grows, the harder it is to keep growing.

Apple is a great company but it can't keep growing at the rate that it did when it was two guys in a garage, right? The market cap is too big.

[hacknoid]

Things only become clear after the fact... This looks more correct now.

Can you add more dates? When does this predict a peak? Sometime this summer, right?

Well, if the previous cycles hold to repeat this time, then we are due for a significant price rise any time now.  The current phase (2) will end early in 2017, so it would in general indicate any time between now and the end of 2016 for both a rise and subsequent sell-off.  Good news is anytime we have a significant run-up the pullback is always to a point higher than before it started (usuallty it seems to settle about halfway between pre-runup price and peak price).

Don't forget, these are just indicators.  I wish the "crystal ball" were more precise, but it's just a trend.  Sorry, can't get any more specific than that.

[hacknoid]

The magnitude of the moves may decrease as time goes by.

In my experience it's a time/volume tradeoff. The longer it takes, the higher the magnitude. It's funny because Benoit Mandelbrot talked about this in The (Mis)Behavior of Markets and seemed to indicate there was some algorithm behind these sorts of "repeats". His theories are so anti-modern finance though, that most people ignored what he had to say.

That doesn't mean enterprising Bitcoin traders aren't taking advantage of it or evolving on what he started, though.

Interesting... I didn't know about that.  At the beginning of this thread I likened the behavior to fractals we see in nature, so maybe this is indicative of the trend in finance (at least when artificial limitations have not been placed on markets).

I think that's true. But there's another principle at work: the larger something grows, the harder it is to keep growing.

Apple is a great company but it can't keep growing at the rate that it did when it was two guys in a garage, right? The market cap is too big.

I think this is why we are observing a smaller percentage change each cycle.  It is indeed harder to change something that is already getting large.  Of course, Bitcoin still has a large potential future ahead of it!

[hacknoid]

Very interesting analysis, but I am very skeptical about the relevance of technical analysis to predict the future behavior. And this is especially applicable to the bitcoin performance because of its very recent appearance in the financial and technological world.

Understandable.  I am actually quite surprised at the repetitive nature that can be observed by looking at the history of BTC prices.  However, at least up to this point, there definitely are correlation between the cycles I have highlighted.  That being said, no guarantees about the future...

I think what we are seeing, as I said at the beginning of this thread, is a representation of human nature (greed, FOMO, panic, etc.) reflected in Bitcoin price.  My hypothesis is the reason we can see it is that Bitcoin is the first market free of artificial limitations.  There are no restrictions on trading hours (24/7), countries where you can do it, no blackout periods, no limitations on which exchanges are allowed to trade Bitcoin, and the market is not shut down in the event of a price crash.  Everything is truly reflective of interest and investor sentiment.  This seems clear from both the up and down trends that can be seen.

On smaller scales, there are cycles too.  Each runup in price follows a heartbeat pattern, with a rise, then fall back, eventually settling somewhere in the middle, higher than where it started.  Lots of noise of course too, but trends are there.

In any case, don't take this as definite future predictions; it's merely observations.

[hacknoid]

I want to take the chance since you are online now, is this it ?

Will reply to your latest reply ASAP.

Sorry bud, missed ya.  Was on just briefly earlier, just to look at chatter about the current price.