Bitcoin price cycles

[zimmah]

I think we are entering another super-cycle but there is still going to be a ceiling on stable price, which can be temporarily overshot, due to the cost of mining taking up too much of the world's energy consumption.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.msg9186092#msg9186092
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.msg7841448#msg7841448

Would be helpful to run these numbers again.

I believe a super-cycle is way overdue, but because of many problems right now it is being held back

for example the bitfinex problem and the blocksize debate that has been gone on for way too long and is still not even anywhere close to solved.

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[jehst]

I think we are entering another super-cycle but there is still going to be a ceiling on stable price, which can be temporarily overshot, due to the cost of mining taking up too much of the world's energy consumption.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.msg9186092#msg9186092
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.msg7841448#msg7841448

Would be helpful to run these numbers again.

I believe a super-cycle is way overdue, but because of many problems right now it is being held back

for example the bitfinex problem and the blocksize debate that has been gone on for way too long and is still not even anywhere close to solved.

If that were true, then some altcoin with better scalability would've rocketed past bitcoin. Yet here we are, with the total cryptocurrency market cap below bitcoin's all-time high.

The simplest explanation is that the demand just isn't there.

[Sidas_Crew669]

I think we are entering another super-cycle but there is still going to be a ceiling on stable price, which can be temporarily overshot, due to the cost of mining taking up too much of the world's energy consumption.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.msg9186092#msg9186092
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.msg7841448#msg7841448

Would be helpful to run these numbers again.

I believe a super-cycle is way overdue, but because of many problems right now it is being held back

for example the bitfinex problem and the blocksize debate that has been gone on for way too long and is still not even anywhere close to solved.

If that were true, then some altcoin with better scalability would've rocketed past bitcoin. Yet here we are, with the total cryptocurrency market cap below bitcoin's all-time high.

The simplest explanation is that the demand just isn't there.

Yup, market demand or my usual call is a movement of the market is a major factor in doing something. and we will not be able to benefit from market movements are weak crypto, except bitcoin. because as poor as any in the future, bitcoin bitcoin can bounce better and give a tremendous advantage

[Vastraint]

I think we are entering another super-cycle but there is still going to be a ceiling on stable price, which can be temporarily overshot, due to the cost of mining taking up too much of the world's energy consumption.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.msg9186092#msg9186092
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.msg7841448#msg7841448

Would be helpful to run these numbers again.

I believe a super-cycle is way overdue, but because of many problems right now it is being held back

for example the bitfinex problem and the blocksize debate that has been gone on for way too long and is still not even anywhere close to solved.

If that were true, then some altcoin with better scalability would've rocketed past bitcoin. Yet here we are, with the total cryptocurrency market cap below bitcoin's all-time high.

The simplest explanation is that the demand just isn't there.

The Monero has good scalability. It does not have a block size limit. The block size is adaptive to the current demand.

[bitcoin-hunter]

Bitcoins price always cicles around the amount of 600 dollar and not only the 600 dollar but becuase we already saw that the price of the bitcoin losses to the 500 dollar or something but we will never now what to hit.

[Shiroslullaby]

The Monero has good scalability. It does not have a block size limit. The block size is adaptive to the current demand.

I've been looking into Monero recently, and it seems very interesting.
Does anyone accept Monero at this point?
I would invest in some, but Im afraid it will be just another alt-coin that is never used for anything besides exchange trading.

[hacknoid]

Sorry for lack of updates to this thread; summer is pretty busy and all, and with the lack of "excitement" around the bitcoin price, I haven't been all that driven to update things.

However, this week I thought I should update; so, here's what the graphs look like to the current point in time:



Hm.  Not bvery exciting.  What happened to the cycle this time?  Well, let's change the scale of the graph and look again:



Wow... much more interesting.  While not the desired highs I think we were all expecting, this cycle certainly seems to be repeating the same pattern as before.  As I have been thinking all along, the price is showing a similar fractal nature to what we see in nature.  In fact, if you look at the size of the scaling on the graphs, we have been reducing the overall scale each time, from 30x -> 10x -> 2x (in terms of actual dollar value).

Also, if we highlight what I am trying to identify as corresponding events in each cycle, it looks like this:



What's especially interesting in this is that not only is the amplitude of the cycle decreased, the duration seems to have as well.  I think this can all be attributed to Bitcoin reaching a local saturation point; not that we're anywhere near potential capacity, but we are in terms of current TPS as well as users.  We have reached the chasm, and now need to truly cross it into mainstream if we expect to see significant growth in the future.

However, there is still hope for the outlook; check out the log graph and trendlines below; we have slowed down on growth, but definitely are still growing (and more closely sticking to the exponential growth curve rather than wildly fluctuating):

I've been looking into Monero recently, and it seems very interesting.
Does anyone accept Monero at this point?
I would invest in some, but Im afraid it will be just another alt-coin that is never used for anything besides exchange trading.

I personally wouldn't expect a large adoption of any other coin than Bitcoin at the moment.  The overall market for crypto is not large enough to support many players at significant levels.  There are always new coins coming around that show potential for various reasons, but unless either they unseat Bitcoin as top dog or the overall market/userbase explodes, I don't think you could expect large adoption of other coins.  Still possibly very good for trading gains if you know what you're doing, but ATM not more beyond that.

[Babayega31]

Bitcoins price always cicles around the amount of 600 dollar and not only the 600 dollar but becuase we already saw that the price of the bitcoin losses to the 500 dollar or something but we will never now what to hit.

Correct bitcoin is like a wheel spinning just because the price up and down so repeatedly, just so happens to the price of bitcoin . So good monetize bitcoin because of its price down and up will have a profit . But I think in recent months have been stable and the price he is just barely less in a few days and return to the previous price .

[zimmah]

I think we are entering another super-cycle but there is still going to be a ceiling on stable price, which can be temporarily overshot, due to the cost of mining taking up too much of the world's energy consumption.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.msg9186092#msg9186092
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.msg7841448#msg7841448

Would be helpful to run these numbers again.

I believe a super-cycle is way overdue, but because of many problems right now it is being held back

for example the bitfinex problem and the blocksize debate that has been gone on for way too long and is still not even anywhere close to solved.

If that were true, then some altcoin with better scalability would've rocketed past bitcoin. Yet here we are, with the total cryptocurrency market cap below bitcoin's all-time high.

The simplest explanation is that the demand just isn't there.

the general public just isn't interested in alts right now. Maybe in the future, but bitcoin just has a major edge called network effect.

and that's unlikely to change any time soon.

Yup, market demand or my usual call is a movement of the market is a major factor in doing something. and we will not be able to benefit from market movements are weak crypto, except bitcoin. because as poor as any in the future, bitcoin bitcoin can bounce better and give a tremendous advantage

[Raize]

Wow... much more interesting.  While not the desired highs I think we were all expecting, this cycle certainly seems to be repeating the same pattern as before.  As I have been thinking all along, the price is showing a similar fractal nature to what we see in nature.  In fact, if you look at the size of the scaling on the graphs, we have been reducing the overall scale each time, from 30x -> 10x -> 2x (in terms of actual dollar value).

Thanks again for doing this kind of analysis. I wish there was more out there looking at the fractal nature of price changes. One thing to note however is that even though the pattern of 30-10-2 may have repeated, perhaps the overarching pattern coupled with the fact that fiat always inflates would indicate we're eventually going to be due for another super-cycle of 30 sometime after this one has run its course.

[jehst]

 30x -> 10x -> 2x

so the next one will be what? 0.2x?

that would imply that the parabolic rises are done.

did bitcoin conquer volatility in 7 years?  gold and silver are still experiencing parabolic rises after thousands of years.

this isn't over.

[cpfreeplz]

Well there's obviously a pattern here, although it's strange that it's a 900 day cycle. Most stocks have a typical yearly cycle where they drop for one reason or another at a certain time of the year (usually Jan/Feb is stagnant for stocks or they drop after the holidays). I can't find any logical reason as to why a 2.5 year (give or take) cycle.

At the same time, with bitcoin in its infancy this isn't exactly a pattern yet but so far it's looking like some sort of predictions can be made. If bitcoins never deflate (as 21M is the biggest number of total coins that will ever be 'minted') will we see a steady increase of say 2-3% to counter the inflation of the USD? When bitcoins are stable some time far in the future I say yes!

[zimmah]

30x -> 10x -> 2x

so the next one will be what? 0.2x?

that would imply that the parabolic rises are done.

did bitcoin conquer volatility in 7 years?  gold and silver are still experiencing parabolic rises after thousands of years.

this isn't over.

of course they are, because the FED isn't done printing dollars at an exponential rate.

[hacknoid]

30x -> 10x -> 2x

so the next one will be what? 0.2x?

that would imply that the parabolic rises are done.

did bitcoin conquer volatility in 7 years?  gold and silver are still experiencing parabolic rises after thousands of years.

this isn't over.

No, I definitely don't think this is over.  As I said above

I think this can all be attributed to Bitcoin reaching a local saturation point; not that we're anywhere near potential capacity, but we are in terms of current TPS as well as users.  We have reached the chasm, and now need to truly cross it into mainstream if we expect to see significant growth in the future.

At best, we probably have a few million users of Bitcoin currently.  That's less than 0.1% of the population; if that's all Bitcoin ever gains in terms of traction, then maybe exponential growth is over.  But if we cross the chasm and reach orders of magnitiude more users, then the future growth will eclipse anything we have seen to date.

And with things like the machine payable web (21 Inc.) and Brave browser coming as practical applications of Bitcoin for people, who knows?  And there are of course tons of more potential future applications, most of which haven't even been imagined yet...

[hacknoid]

Well there's obviously a pattern here, although it's strange that it's a 900 day cycle. Most stocks have a typical yearly cycle where they drop for one reason or another at a certain time of the year (usually Jan/Feb is stagnant for stocks or they drop after the holidays). I can't find any logical reason as to why a 2.5 year (give or take) cycle.

Stocks are very prone to seasonal things, like shopping tendancies, seasonal travel, annual earnings reports, etc.  Why is Moore's law 18 months?  Why do fashion trends tend to repeat every 20 years?  Why are sunspots on an 11-year cycle?  I think something on the order of 900 days is reasonable, as it is long enough for sentiment to come full cycle, from optimism to hype to pessism to despair to acceptance and then back to optimism (or something like that).  I'm not a psychologist, but it seems reasonable.  Also couple in technology evolution cycles and VC interest; both of those are not tied to the calendar, and would likely have periods longer than a year if there is indeed any cycle to them at all.

I think the perception that Bitcoin price should follow annual trends is the mistake; there is nothing about Bitcoin adoption that has anything to do with the time it takes for the Earth to go around the sun.  Humans tend to think of things in yearly cycles, but many other things are not tied to that.

[josegines]

a major pump Bitcoin fit if there is a larger cycle, ie, 3 or 4 cycles of 900 days formed a major cycle.

[zimmah]

30x -> 10x -> 2x

so the next one will be what? 0.2x?

that would imply that the parabolic rises are done.

did bitcoin conquer volatility in 7 years?  gold and silver are still experiencing parabolic rises after thousands of years.

this isn't over.

No, I definitely don't think this is over.  As I said above

I think this can all be attributed to Bitcoin reaching a local saturation point; not that we're anywhere near potential capacity, but we are in terms of current TPS as well as users.  We have reached the chasm, and now need to truly cross it into mainstream if we expect to see significant growth in the future.

At best, we probably have a few million users of Bitcoin currently.  That's less than 0.1% of the population; if that's all Bitcoin ever gains in terms of traction, then maybe exponential growth is over.  But if we cross the chasm and reach orders of magnitiude more users, then the future growth will eclipse anything we have seen to date.

And with things like the machine payable web (21 Inc.) and Brave browser coming as practical applications of Bitcoin for people, who knows?  And there are of course tons of more potential future applications, most of which haven't even been imagined yet...

They both rely on microtransactions, and bitcoin isn't ready for micro-transactions and will never be ready if these stubborn folks won't get past the whole

1MB blocksize is more than enough, in fact, we should decentralize more by reducing blocksize

herp derp.

This whole 1MB nonsense is damaging bitcoin so hard.

[hacknoid]

30x -> 10x -> 2x

so the next one will be what? 0.2x?

that would imply that the parabolic rises are done.

did bitcoin conquer volatility in 7 years?  gold and silver are still experiencing parabolic rises after thousands of years.

this isn't over.

No, I definitely don't think this is over.  As I said above

I think this can all be attributed to Bitcoin reaching a local saturation point; not that we're anywhere near potential capacity, but we are in terms of current TPS as well as users.  We have reached the chasm, and now need to truly cross it into mainstream if we expect to see significant growth in the future.

At best, we probably have a few million users of Bitcoin currently.  That's less than 0.1% of the population; if that's all Bitcoin ever gains in terms of traction, then maybe exponential growth is over.  But if we cross the chasm and reach orders of magnitiude more users, then the future growth will eclipse anything we have seen to date.

And with things like the machine payable web (21 Inc.) and Brave browser coming as practical applications of Bitcoin for people, who knows?  And there are of course tons of more potential future applications, most of which haven't even been imagined yet...

They both rely on microtransactions, and bitcoin isn't ready for micro-transactions and will never be ready if these stubborn folks won't get past the whole

Can't see any way around it for the 21 Inc. applications, but Brave can cache a lot of transactions off chain and then do bulk charges against a wallet, if necessary.  So it may not be held up.  But,

1MB blocksize is more than enough, in fact, we should decentralize more by reducing blocksize

herp derp.

This whole 1MB nonsense is damaging bitcoin so hard.

Agreed.  1000%.  Can't understand how anyone can think that artificially crippling a system is good for innovation.  I wonder how many potential apps are stalled simply because the bandwidth isn't there?  And as for all the arguments against increasing it - they are all just theories until the limit is lifted.  Remember - Bitcoin is still beta software; this is the time to see what happens when necessary changes are made.  The system is resilient, and all the players have a vested interest in it's success.  If someone really wanted to kill it, they would attempt it no matter what the block size was; trying to hide behind a paper wall doesn't make the danger go away.

[outatime1]

The price will fluctuate and is very dependent on public perception when it comes to the investment potential for bitcoin. I think we will still see good gains over the long run.

[M28MmickT]

30x -> 10x -> 2x

so the next one will be what? 0.2x?

that would imply that the parabolic rises are done.

did bitcoin conquer volatility in 7 years?  gold and silver are still experiencing parabolic rises after thousands of years.

this isn't over.

No, I definitely don't think this is over.  As I said above

I think this can all be attributed to Bitcoin reaching a local saturation point; not that we're anywhere near potential capacity, but we are in terms of current TPS as well as users.  We have reached the chasm, and now need to truly cross it into mainstream if we expect to see significant growth in the future.

At best, we probably have a few million users of Bitcoin currently.  That's less than 0.1% of the population; if that's all Bitcoin ever gains in terms of traction, then maybe exponential growth is over.  But if we cross the chasm and reach orders of magnitiude more users, then the future growth will eclipse anything we have seen to date.

And with things like the machine payable web (21 Inc.) and Brave browser coming as practical applications of Bitcoin for people, who knows?  And there are of course tons of more potential future applications, most of which haven't even been imagined yet...

They both rely on microtransactions, and bitcoin isn't ready for micro-transactions and will never be ready if these stubborn folks won't get past the whole

Can't see any way around it for the 21 Inc. applications, but Brave can cache a lot of transactions off chain and then do bulk charges against a wallet, if necessary.  So it may not be held up.  But,

1MB blocksize is more than enough, in fact, we should decentralize more by reducing blocksize

herp derp.

This whole 1MB nonsense is damaging bitcoin so hard.

Agreed.  1000%.  Can't understand how anyone can think that artificially crippling a system is good for innovation.  I wonder how many potential apps are stalled simply because the bandwidth isn't there?  And as for all the arguments against increasing it - they are all just theories until the limit is lifted.  Remember - Bitcoin is still beta software; this is the time to see what happens when necessary changes are made.  The system is resilient, and all the players have a vested interest in it's success.  If someone really wanted to kill it, they would attempt it no matter what the block size was; trying to hide behind a paper wall doesn't make the danger go away.

Off chain applications are not a valid solution, will bring new problems, the solution is just increasing the mb limit, as simple as that, this whole history reminds me when "Shortsighted people once laughed at the idea of a $1,000 Bitcoin. Today they laugh at the idea of a 1,000MB block." -Roger Ver