ASIC where are they?

[jojo69]

I stopped giving a crap for a couple weeks but now I'm back and now BFL's website has actual pictures of the finished product.  That means they have some chips, are assembling and testing some, and are obviously close to shipping.  

Yeah, only those chips you saw? Mock-ups. They don't have any chips at BFL, mostly because the chips don't even exist yet. Apparently the chips are going to be finished by next week, maybe, with luck. BFL doesn't know. They have no idea when their chips are going to be finished. But it could be next week. With luck. Who knows?

Filtering through the Inaba speak this is probably how it's gonna go:
 - Finally understanding how Asian fabs work, BFL raises their order from 20000 chips to 100000 to bump up their place in the production queue.
 - Fab decides they finally have time for that weirdo BFL company to do their miniscule run on the 11th. This is under provision no big orders from LG come in in the mean time because boy that Nexus 4 is selling like hotcakes. If that happens BFLs run is gonna be pushed back to "whenever".
 - Assuming the 11th happens and the run actually starts, you can add about 4-5 weeks for production of these things.
 - On 21st of December the world ends
 - In the middle of January the chips are finished. Inaba decides to hop in a plane and fly over to the fab to hand receive the chips. Turns out, all planes crashed during the end of the world. Instead the chips are shipped over to 'merica by boat.
 - Middle of March the chips finally arrive in what is now called the Independent State of California. Customs officials hold what they assume to be weapons grade military devices until the end of the war with Texas finally ends in a stalemate.
- 2015: ASICs arrive at BFL studios (a subsidiary of bAvalon International). No one knows what to do with them because all bitcoins were wiped out by the EMP pulse from Planet Rth'Nag'Ar.
- 2016: bAvalon strings the chips up on metal bars to produce a first-of-its-kind mathematics device they call The Abacus.

absolute gold

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[mem]

I stopped giving a crap for a couple weeks but now I'm back and now BFL's website has actual pictures of the finished product.  That means they have some chips, are assembling and testing some, and are obviously close to shipping.  

Yeah, only those chips you saw? Mock-ups. They don't have any chips at BFL, mostly because the chips don't even exist yet. Apparently the chips are going to be finished by next week, maybe, with luck. BFL doesn't know. They have no idea when their chips are going to be finished. But it could be next week. With luck. Who knows?

Filtering through the Inaba speak this is probably how it's gonna go:
 - Finally understanding how Asian fabs work, BFL raises their order from 20000 chips to 100000 to bump up their place in the production queue.
 - Fab decides they finally have time for that weirdo BFL company to do their miniscule run on the 11th. This is under provision no big orders from LG come in in the mean time because boy that Nexus 4 is selling like hotcakes. If that happens BFLs run is gonna be pushed back to "whenever".
 - Assuming the 11th happens and the run actually starts, you can add about 4-5 weeks for production of these things.
 - On 21st of December the world ends
 - In the middle of January the chips are finished. Inaba decides to hop in a plane and fly over to the fab to hand receive the chips. Turns out, all planes crashed during the end of the world. Instead the chips are shipped over to 'merica by boat.
 - Middle of March the chips finally arrive in what is now called the Independent State of California. Customs officials hold what they assume to be weapons grade military devices until the end of the war with Texas finally ends in a stalemate.
- 2015: ASICs arrive at BFL studios (a subsidiary of bAvalon International). No one knows what to do with them because all bitcoins were wiped out by the EMP pulse from Planet Rth'Nag'Ar.
- 2016: bAvalon strings the chips up on metal bars to produce a first-of-its-kind mathematics device they call The Abacus.

lmao, I gotta wipe spit and snot off my screen you made me laugh so hard.

[Monster Tent]

Its only a scam if theymos invests in it and loses money.

[mem]

I don't have any pre order, so I shouldn't interfere but would there not be a point in telling others not to order anything from BFL or claiming that they'll never market a product, if you are sure you get one yourself so you will have a better chance of recouping your investment as less ASIC's are sold because of slander?  

Excellent point Luno. I think the haters fall into two camps,

1. Those that didn't order early when they had the chance and are now kicking themselves.
2. As you said, those who did order and are trying to sow misinformation for their own gain.

This is the very same song Pirates investors were singing, good luck with that

[squall1066]

Agree with plenty of these threads, I bought in late, just one unit, People are starting to pull out, And getting their money back, Not me, I will sit in this ride till its conclusion.

Let the trolls have their fun, If BFL dliver they will shut up fast, If not I will shut up fast 

[michaelmclees]

But there is an enormous timeframe in which they they may not deliver.  They could fail to deliver for the next 1000 years.  But once they deliver, the deed is done. So in other words, stay prepared to hear about how BFL isn't delivering for the foreseeable future.  And because "dog bites man" isn't news, when they do deliver, we'll all be back to the speculation forum where we belong.

[GenTarkin]

They dont exist...

[RyanRed]

I dont think its a Scam. Not even from the get go. Theres just too much into outside information from other sources for just a few companies to pull something of this maganatude off. Just look at the new MIT write up (google it) Yes, we are burdened with delays, and it is frustrating, but its not a scam by any means.

[jjiimm_64]

I stick to my opinion.

1) No reason to request someone to pay in advance (6 months in advance or more) for a product that was already pushed back at least twice.
2) In the unlikely case that they were able to get ASICS working.... why would they sell them so cheap? IT DOES NOT MAKE SENSE!!!
3) The Single SC, with a performance of 60,000 Mhash (60GH) but let's be pesimistic and say that it can mine at 50,000Mhash/s...
with the current difficulty, and halving, you could mine 6.5 BTC per day. At the current BTC price, your ROI is about 15 days (let's say 20 if we calculate electricity there, and I'm being super pesimistic)
So, in conclusion, since NO ONE has seen an ASIC, and BFL is selling them at a fraction of what GPU mining and even FPGA mining costs (The ROI's for GPU and FPGS are no less than 4-6 months) there's definitely something that doesn't add up.
I'm happy for the people that are believers, you guys live in a fantasy world.... but being BFL a for profit, and putting myself in their shoes, it doesn't make ANY sense to sell ASIC so cheap, and if I had ASIC, I would much rather mine with them and make some profit before shipping them out... or better yet, I would change my business model and I'd mine with them instead of selling them away...
just my two cents.

within one month, the ROI will go from 2 weeks to 5 months, like it has been historically.

[jjiimm_64]

Within one month... expect another excuse!

I meant within a month of asics in the wild, diff will rise to the point that ROI will rise to historical avgs.

[Elxiliath]

Maybe they considered it in another direction.  Sell thousands of devices to greatly increase difficulty hence making all miners have to purchase ASICs to do any worthwhile mining and making the demand skyrocket.  Be the first and only supplier and crush your competition.  Then raise prices and profit.

[bce]

It could also be that there is bitcoin-rich financial backer behind an ASIC producer, who is backing development in order to increase the security of the bitcoin network by widely distributing ASICs which will harden the network against attack.  Since the network security is increased by selling these ASICs around the world, the BTC value will go up, more orders will come in at current ASIC sale prices, and the company will sell enough to make up for development costs.  At worse, it's a scheme -  but a scam?  Probably not... unless you count the pre-orders placed in June 2012 @ $6 per BTC through a payment processor, and the possible rise in BTC value  *removes tin-foil hat*

[Bogart]

What is this ROI you keep speaking of in terms of days/weeks/months?

The ROI I'm familiar with is usually expressed in terms of APY or similar.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/returnoninvestment.asp

[bcpokey]

What is this ROI you keep speaking of in terms of days/weeks/months?

The ROI I'm familiar with is usually expressed in terms of APY or similar.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/returnoninvestment.asp

Sup. Text.

Keep in mind that the calculation for return on investment and, therefore the definition, can be modified to suit the situation -it all depends on what you include as returns and costs. The definition of the term in the broadest sense just attempts to measure the profitability of an investment and, as such, there is no one "right" calculation.

most people on these forums mean break even when they say roi, if that helps

[jjiimm_64]

What is this ROI you keep speaking of in terms of days/weeks/months?

The ROI I'm familiar with is usually expressed in terms of APY or similar.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/returnoninvestment.asp

nothing in the bitcoin world is measured in years....

[Elxiliath]

Ok, it's a scheme and a scam...
it's a scheme if they used the pre-order's money to profit from it while investing in the required machinery to produce something they are yet to have working. It's a scam because they have failed to deliver in the times they specified making the product less valuable every day (difficulty increasing, halving, etc)
Yes, by the time they release a single jalapeño, the $150 jalapeño's ROI will be 6 months or more like I read somewhere here...
that is IF they ever deliver one...
lots of dreamers our there...
And I'm amazed of the imagination that some people have. Thinking some big rich guy is behind all this to secure the network releasing ASICS or crazy theories like that...
This is not the humane society, this is a business, like the stock market, I know there are anarchists out there, but I doubt there's one with the amount of money required to support such theory.

I'm a dreamer and I do not believe ASICs are a scam.  But the releasing of them to secure the network doesn't make a great lot of sense.  It's been brought up, why would they sell these processors so cheap given the current MH/$ of FPGAs.  Given what we pay for an FPGA if it was a direct conversion we'd be paying $3,500 per Jalapeño.  It's hard to say how or why.

[BR0KK]

What is this ROI you keep speaking of in terms of days/weeks/months?

The ROI I'm familiar with is usually expressed in terms of APY or similar.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/returnoninvestment.asp

nothing in the bitcoin world is measured in years....

In bitcoin everything is mesured in 4 to 6 weeks......
 Or by the end of "insert month here" ....

[jjiimm_64]

What is this ROI you keep speaking of in terms of days/weeks/months?

The ROI I'm familiar with is usually expressed in terms of APY or similar.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/returnoninvestment.asp

nothing in the bitcoin world is measured in years....

In bitcoin everything is mesured in 4 to 6 weeks......
 Or by the end of "insert month here" ....

Just to make it clear...  ROI as a function of bitcoin, usually mean time to breakeven. (When do I get my Investment Returned). maybe we should call it IR

[bce]

.... And I'm amazed of the imagination that some people have. Thinking some big rich guy is behind all this to secure the network releasing ASICS or crazy theories like that...
This is not the humane society, this is a business, like the stock market, I know there are anarchists out there, but I doubt there's one with the amount of money required to support such theory.

People have already accepted that BTC has value.  If someone had a shit ton of BTC, they'd invest in making sure the network is secure, right?  It'd have nothing to do with taking care of stray dogs.  Now I've got that Sarah McLachlan song in my head - Thanks, deathcode.

[TheBible]

You people haven't even seen a prototype, have seen constant delays with unrealistic timelines, no proof at all that there even is an order at a foundry, and you still fall for these obvious scams every single time.