~415 - Break out up, or down?

[r3t4rD4life]

I don't know the first thing about TA but I believe the price will break soon either up or down. Anybody got any guesses?

[Wilhelm]

Nobody is great at TA (only about 5 people in this forum are worth listening to and I'm not one).

Plus points...
- We have had a long bear market.
- 1week logarithmic EMA has been positive for a long time.
- Optimism in the forums.
- Block halving on it's way
- No banning as far as I know
- Bitcoin is being recognized, taxed and adopted.

Negative points...
- More terrorism and Bitcoin is enabling them (could be a positive price driver but I hate terrorists)
- Price of bitcoin is high and people need to change their mindset to owning part of a coin
- Serious money needed to push price


My conclusion would be that we will get a good rise in the oncoming weeks.
Previous bubbles have been 30 days of mega rising.
There will be a bubble, I think we might hit just above the previous ATH before people get scared and stuff.

This is my pull-out-of-ass TA  

[MissionPhailed]

Yeah, wouldn't be thrilled either if I would make huge profits because of maniacal terrorists (pleonasm?) investing bigtime in crypto.

That aside, I think we'll see $400 pretty soon, perhaps within one week from now.

[Alley]

Target is $500 before halving.

[richardsNY]

I have the feeling we will make an attempt to touch the $400 barrier the comming weeks. The price stays quite strong above $350 which is a good thing.

[sweerty1]

Break up to stay around $400.

[r0ach]

It already broke upwards yesterday, meaning the odds of dropping below $350 were severely decreased:

I fucked that up drawing charts with an ideology I don't agree with, that outlier data is useful for anything whatsoever.  Here's a better chart.  That second downward wave had a lot of sideways to it and looked happy to stay around 2240 yuan ($350), so if the triangle converges downward, worst case scenario is panic to $340-345, then probably bounce back to $345-350.  Miner whales may attempt to converge it at $367, then drop, then above a $370 double top for a huge rally to $385-400.

Chart I made earlier.  The 5th wedge maintenance buy came in instead of a dump, which might have locked in $350.  At the very least it's gonna cause a long time span of sideways movement with a platform for further up:

Then:



Now:

[Wilhelm]

It will take a few days to confirm the upward break but I'm confident it's a sure thing.

[Meuh6879]

if china exchange can take the shock ... we can be progress highly and ... easly.

[uki]

Nobody is great at TA (only about 5 people in this forum are worth listening to and I'm not one).

Plus points...
- We have had a long bear market.
- 1week logarithmic EMA has been positive for a long time.
- Optimism in the forums.
- Block halving on it's way
- No banning as far as I know
- Bitcoin is being recognized, taxed and adopted.

Negative points...
- More terrorism and Bitcoin is enabling them (could be a positive price driver but I hate terrorists)
- Price of bitcoin is high and people need to change their mindset to owning part of a coin
- Serious money needed to push price


My conclusion would be that we will get a good rise in the oncoming weeks.
Previous bubbles have been 30 days of mega rising.
There will be a bubble, I think we might hit just above the previous ATH before people get scared and stuff.

This is my pull-out-of-ass TA  

To be honest, I see very little arguments on the plus list that could influence the price in the short-term (by the end of 2015). Halving is still quite far away and I wouldn't expect it to spark the next leg up as for now. Optimism in the forums? Well, I bet most of the people who put money in Bitcoin don't post to this forum (and others we may read). Does anything fundamental Bitcoin-positive has happened since the time we saw the price at sub-$200 levels, or you could do a similar list back then and say: ok, now it should rise. The only thing that is indeed positive and I can agree is that we painted the charts positively, reversing the down trend started after collapse of Mt. Gox. Trend reversals are usually very slow processes and this one should be similar. I wouldn't expect fireworks ($800 would be a firework to me) yet. Not yet, doesn't mean they won't come closer to the halving.

[r0ach]

- More terrorism and Bitcoin is enabling them (could be a positive price driver but I hate terrorists)

Maybe you will die from lightning, bees, and terrorists all in the same day, while also winning the lottery.

[Wilhelm]

True my ass-pull TA is more based on long term.
With optimism I mean no more fallllliiiiiiing clone threads. People asking if they should invest... Etc.

[isvicre]

It looks like we go up and there's no real resistance until 400$. Very exciting times come again.

[wikenpp]

It looks like we go up and there's no real resistance until 400$. Very exciting times come again.

Finally some good times for bitcoiners. Let's hope the market sentiment don't change and momentum get's back up.

Then we can say hi to 500 at the end of this year.

[isvicre]

Finally some good times for bitcoiners. Let's hope the market sentiment don't change and momentum get's back up.

Then we can say hi to 500 at the end of this year.

I think we won't see any difference than early November pump. Even if we pass 500$ we go back again to 300's.

[bitowl]

In a tough spot. I'm long term long on the btc I already have but have been looking for another low to buy more. It has to drop back down to like ~350 at least sometime in the next 2 weeks right? Isn't it a self fulfilling prophecy that the price gets pumped up around black friday and tanks shortly after? Or is this movement from some wider optimism or argentina or what have you?

[croato]

Again i am watching price tickers on every of my gadget and computer lol. I hope we will have new floor at 350-400 this time.

[n691309]

It's $373.11 in coindesk price and maybe more in other websites/exchanges, i think the bitcoin will break $400 soon if not this month(november)

[Feri22]

Nobody is great at TA (only about 5 people in this forum are worth listening to and I'm not one).

Plus points...
- We have had a long bear market.
- 1week logarithmic EMA has been positive for a long time.
- Optimism in the forums.
- Block halving on it's way
- No banning as far as I know
- Bitcoin is being recognized, taxed and adopted.

Negative points...
- More terrorism and Bitcoin is enabling them (could be a positive price driver but I hate terrorists)
- Price of bitcoin is high and people need to change their mindset to owning part of a coin
- Serious money needed to push price


My conclusion would be that we will get a good rise in the oncoming weeks.
Previous bubbles have been 30 days of mega rising.
There will be a bubble, I think we might hit just above the previous ATH before people get scared and stuff.

This is my pull-out-of-ass TA  

What is Bitcoin enabling them and how precisely? Bitcoin is the worst way to money laundering, so what are you talking about...

[lumeire]

Finally some good times for bitcoiners. Let's hope the market sentiment don't change and momentum get's back up.

Then we can say hi to 500 at the end of this year.

I think we won't see any difference than early November pump. Even if we pass 500$ we go back again to 300's.

Then let's just enjoy the ride shall we? We all know what ever the reason behind this rise, it's gonna go down soon. Maybe even to a new floor. So the best thing we can do is profit from it.