Here's how mass adoption plays out in my opinion

[afbitcoins]

Ah rarity coin, you deleted your comment did you. Probably a wise move.

Anyway too late I saw it. They can ban bitcoin all they want by the way but it is decentralised so they can't stop it or stop people using it.

[afbitcoins]

As far as I know bitcoin is not illegal yet even though it seems you'd like it to be. Anyway, pointless arguing with someone like you and I can no longer be bothered my point has been made.

[ReigningPigs]

Lets be realistic.
Bitcoin will be adopted, when its price stabilizes. The reason it is not adopted is because its price very unstable.

More adoption will cause the price of Bitcoin to skyrocket. This in turn will cause panic as people will think Bitcoin has become volatile again, or they may start to look at Bitcoin as a huge bubble. This will decrease the acceptance of the currency again and will in turn cause Bitcoin to crash all the way down to pennies and dimes.  

The ideas many users are dreaming about on this forum are far-fetched and very unlikely to happen, that does not mean it WON'T happen...it's just very unlikely.

[newcoins1978]

Lets be realistic.
Bitcoin will be adopted, when its price stabilizes. The reason it is not adopted is because its price very unstable.

More adoption will cause the price of Bitcoin to skyrocket. This in turn will cause panic as people will think Bitcoin has become volatile again, or they may start to look at Bitcoin as a huge bubble. This will decrease the acceptance of the currency again and will in turn cause Bitcoin to crash all the way down to pennies and dimes.  

The ideas many users are dreaming about on this forum are far-fetched and very unlikely to happen, that does not mean it WON'T happen...it's just very unlikely.

There is no guarantee it will be adopted with stability. It would make things much easier. At least people will no run scared because their money has just lost 30% of it's value.

Currently we in a nice and good moment. Most need investors should have seen an increase after we reach our low (200 dollar).

[jehst]

Bitcoin "adoption" will start with speculative attacks against weak currencies. People will borrow their weak national currencies and sell it for bitcoin. The weak currencies will get even weaker due to increased supply until the weak currencies are destroyed.

Speculative attack will break peg after peg and kill weak currency after weak currency. Central banks will be forced to add bitcoin to their reserves out of fear that bitcoin could grow big enough to threaten major currencies.

This will only make bitcoin go higher. Once bitcoin reaches critical mass, the speculative attacks will begin.

[suda123]

This is all very interesting sidetrack ...

Every point you have made has been shown to be not simply false, but hilariously, can't.make.this.shit.up wrong.
How is this sidetracking?
As far as banning cash: If it comes to that, you can be certain that bitcoin will be outlawed long before that.

Lets start with my last point then. Why is it hilariously wrong that banks are seriously discussing negative interest rates and banning cash ?

less than one minute of googling comes up with these kinds of articles in mainstream media ..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/bank-of-england/11874061/Negative-interest-rates-could-be-necessary-to-protect-UK-economy-says-Bank-of-England-chief-economist.html?WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_FPM_New

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21589128

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-3329324/Swiss-bank-ABS-hit-savers-negative-rates.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/money/spend-save/is-a-cashless-society-really-on-the-cards-8714651.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/denmark-moves-closer-to-a-cashless-society-10231995.html

So why am I hilariously wrong ?

[/quote]

Every point you have made has been shown to be not simply false, but hilariously, can't.make.this.shit.up wrong.
How is this sidetracking?
As far as banning cash: If it comes to that, you can be certain that bitcoin will be outlawed long before that.
[/quote]

LOL

[suda123]

Bitcoin "adoption" will start with speculative attacks against weak currencies. People will borrow their weak national currencies and sell it for bitcoin. The weak currencies will get even weaker due to increased supply until the weak currencies are destroyed.

Speculative attack will break peg after peg and kill weak currency after weak currency. Central banks will be forced to add bitcoin to their reserves out of fear that bitcoin could grow big enough to threaten major currencies.

This will only make bitcoin go higher. Once bitcoin reaches critical mass, the speculative attacks will begin.

Oh wow

[Amph]

Bitcoin "adoption" will start with speculative attacks against weak currencies. People will borrow their weak national currencies and sell it for bitcoin. The weak currencies will get even weaker due to increased supply until the weak currencies are destroyed.

Speculative attack will break peg after peg and kill weak currency after weak currency. Central banks will be forced to add bitcoin to their reserves out of fear that bitcoin could grow big enough to threaten major currencies.

This will only make bitcoin go higher. Once bitcoin reaches critical mass, the speculative attacks will begin.

all this is just speculation on the adoption, no different than speculating on the value, as i see it, there are two ways to grow

via big investors that begin to pump the price and then little fish will follow, and so by creating a bigger market cap you have more chances to attract everybody else

or simply demand increase because fiat begin to be not trustworthy anymore, because of the crisis, and banks begin to fall, otherwise if the fiat system will remain intact, i see no reason for average joe to shift for bitcoin

[disclaimer201]

Afbitcoins has a point. The monetary system is very sick and negative interest rates are already in effect. The banks have been unable to push these negative interest rates to the customer yet but they actually exist (=they have to pay interest to the central banks for owning money) and it is hurting a lot of banks mid to long-term.

I'm afraid we will see more clinging to the old system for a considerable amount of time, interest rates having to go back up to stabilize the status-quo. The Fed will likely raise interests very soon by a fraction of a percentage point just to signal that the system is not bricked. The European Central bank however wants to do even more quantative easing as long as Draghi doesn't wake up to a reality where either customers have to pay interest for their deposits, which will cause everyone to do a bank-run and hold their otherwise devaluing money in cash OR the banks will need to be rescued again sooner or later as their profits are drowning due to sustained interest payments to the ECB/FED.

[Mickeyb]

The banks have been unable to push these negative interest rates to the customer yet but they actually exist (=they have to pay interest to the central banks for owning money) and it is hurting a lot of banks mid to long-term.

Sorry, my bank still paying me interest on my checking. Source for boldface?

Many Swiss and German banks have already introduced negative interest rates! Stories about this are all over the Internet.

I think that what these countries did is just a beginning! Soon enough other countries and other banks will follow the same model!

[Denker]

The banks have been unable to push these negative interest rates to the customer yet but they actually exist (=they have to pay interest to the central banks for owning money) and it is hurting a lot of banks mid to long-term.

Sorry, my bank still paying me interest on my checking. Source for boldface?

Many Swiss and German banks have already introduced negative interest rates! Stories about this are all over the Internet.

I think that what these countries did is just a beginning! Soon enough other countries and other banks will follow the same model!

That is not currect!
In Germany it's only the Commerzbank as one of the giants.And they only have negative interest rates for big business accounts with high deposits.But not for private accounts. Two other small banks are WGZ Bank and Skatbank.But also only neg interest rates for business accounts.

Regarding Switzerland I have no idea.

[uki]

Lets be realistic.
Bitcoin will be adopted, when its price stabilizes. The reason it is not adopted is because its price very unstable.

More adoption will cause the price of Bitcoin to skyrocket. This in turn will cause panic as people will think Bitcoin has become volatile again, or they may start to look at Bitcoin as a huge bubble. This will decrease the acceptance of the currency again and will in turn cause Bitcoin to crash all the way down to pennies and dimes.  

The ideas many users are dreaming about on this forum are far-fetched and very unlikely to happen, that does not mean it WON'T happen...it's just very unlikely.

Very true, actually. As long as Bitcoin is purely p&d vehicle, as  many Buffet-wannabies on this forum wish, there will be no broader market adoption.
The average non-Bitcoin-literate Joe does not to play casino when it comes to his/her savings, grocery money, etc.
As long as Bitcoin stays in this vicious circle of pumping as quickly as possible on the speculative news this does not go anywhere.

[afbitcoins]

snip/ The Fed will likely raise interests very soon by a fraction of a percentage point just to signal that the system is not bricked.

Like the boy who cried wolf too often its getting harder to believe each time they say they 'might' raise rates.

[kwukduck]

You forget one problem for this mass adoption... It won't happen because bitcoin doesn't scale.

[Cconvert2G36]

You forget one problem for this mass adoption... It won't happen because bitcoin doesn't scale.

Is that why you bailed at $10? Are you "all in" when capacity doubles or quadruples?

[Amph]

You forget one problem for this mass adoption... It won't happen because bitcoin doesn't scale.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Scalability

if you talk about the block limit issue, then it can scale easily by hard forking it each time is needed, or via an algorithm that does it for you, integrated in the client

[Mickeyb]

You forget one problem for this mass adoption... It won't happen because bitcoin doesn't scale.

It is going to scale more than it should when the time for this comes, don't worry! Right at this moment, blocks are only half full. When they approach 80% of fulness, everybody will scramble to raise the block size limit, no worries. Nothing works better than fear in my opinion!

[Wexlike]

The market will always find its way. If the participants(user!) move over to bigger blocks, no one cares what the old chain remaining miners think. They will immediately switch over to bigger blocks, the moment they realize that they can't sell their coins on the exchange because of an not accepted blockchain.

In reality they have no power, because they have to obey to the market to stay profitable.

[n2004al]

Banks and financial institutions finally realize that the most robust and secure blockchain is the bitcoin blockchain and begin using it as the backbone of our financial system.  SO this gives Bitcoin value as the token that rewards miners to secure the blockchain.  

Once Bitcoin has a clear value and purpose, wealthy investors will  start to park cash in Bitcoin as a store of value due to it's deflationary nature.  Then more and more people will store money in Bitcoin as a replacement for gold.  

Then merchants will start to want to make it easier for people to spend all of that money they have stored in Bitcoin so then the wave of merchant adoption will happen.  Then once you can spend bitcoin almost anywhere, more and more people will start to use it as their currency.  Then once the rest of the idiots who are still left see the ease of use of bitcoin and watch their fiat currencies inflating to them moon, the remaining people will switch over.

I predict that this entire cycle will take 20 years with many peaks and valleys in the price per bitcoin until then.  With halving approaching and ALL of the banks now working very hard to learn about the blockchain and bitcoin right now the price looks ready to start a new bubble.  

2016:  $1,450.00 per bitcoin
2017:  $2,200.00 per bitcoin
2020:  $7,100.00 per bitcoin
2025:  $45,000.00 per bitcoin
2030:  $225,000.00 per bitcoin
2036:  $1,700,000.00 per bitcoin

I don't understand how you imagine this figures you give but anyone can make such "predictions" which don't want nothing to be made. Only to write the first figures who come in mind. And everything is made. Not only the figures but even words. Writing words that may have "meaning" but are only words without any fact in which are based, can be made even from a boy 15 years old. Until the above are only discussion between friends there are nothing bad. maximum can be some laugh or some joke and everything will be closed there. But that pretending to give exact predictions in precise figures for things that, having in mind their nature and other factors, it is hard even to do actual analyses which can help to give short term predictions or better, opinions, mean, according to me, only desire to create a thread and to have the name on it as its author.

Anyhow I may have wrong and you right. Lets leave the time to verify the words of everyone of us.If we will be again here in bitcointalk and you will have right, put again this thread in the first page of this section and I will agree publicly that had wrong in doing this post and writing such words about your predictions and about you. 

[hector3115]

Boy that rant was hard to follow, but OK, we'll check back at each milestone.