25BTC reward but.. no drop in hash rate!

[bitCooper]

So the bitcoin block reward just dropped from 50btc to 25btc. I thought the hash rate would drop pretty quickly as many mining rigs became instantly unprofitable. But it looks like the hash rate is actually *increasing* and is sitting at around 28 thash / sec.

Is there a lag because a lot of people don't realize we've hit halving day? Or maybe a lot of miners don't pay for their electricity and it's all about sunk costs?

[justusranvier]

ASIC testing?
A bunch of people who used to mine but stopped noticed the publicity surrounding the halving decided to start up again?
The NSA is trying to mount at 51% attack?

[prezbo]

Apart from the rules of bitcoin there is absolutely nothing predictable about it.

[dust]

ASIC testing?
A bunch of people who used to mine but stopped noticed the publicity surrounding the halving decided to start up again?
The NSA is trying to mount at 51% attack?

If a 51% attack were underway, it would not be contributing to the network hashrate.  The attacker would be extending the blockchain faster than the entire legitimate network in secret and attack by revealing a longer chain.

I suspect the current jump is simply variance.  Some miners will move to alt coins and some GPU miners with expensive electricity will power their rigs off for good.

[Endgame]

Looks to me like simple time lag. People turned on some extra hashing power to finish off the last few 50 btc blocks and haven't got around to turning them off yet.

[BkkCoins]

Many miners are probably waiting to see what happens to price. Last fall it also took a long time for miners to drop out, but many eventually did. If there's any chance that the price does go up then miners want to keep mining so as to be able to sell more at the higher price. When hope fades of a higher price, and miners decide they can no longer invest, then they will start shutting down. It takes time as miners don't all decide this at once.

Combine this with the expectation that soon they'll be shutting down GPUs due to ASICs and I think many will keep mining until that finally kicks them in the nuts.

[bcpokey]

Forum users are a small small minority of the hashing network it often seems, surprising as that may be.

I expect a delay of a week to a month for results to become truly apparent, as people either notice their bitcoin wallets slimming/their pool rewards not being what they once were or they get their next power bill and realize "hey this shit isn't paying itself off so well anymore".

I also expect that the "big boys" (> 100GHash/sec) had to be supremely efficient in the first place to even get that large, and are still making significant enough bucks after the halving that it is worth it to keep going (people with 4GHash/sec might think making just $1-$2 / day is annoying, but multiply that by 25+ and you're still a happy camper).

I was hoping to see some decrease instead of a huge increase in hashing power though, for a graceful decline in hashing power, rather than a big drop that might incite panic.

[crazyates]

I havn't seen a huge number of people here in the forums that have closed up GPU mining just yet. Most people seem to be sticking it out, and seeing where it is going. For me, it still learns a (slight) profit, so why not? When the ASICs hit is the other side of the coin, and I'm assuming a lot of GPU miners will shut down them. Of course, the network won't notice them leaving, but that's besides the point. 

[Explodicle]

I was expecting to come back today to see a shitstorm in difficulty and price! Good job guys, you average out to much better speculators than I am. I'm amazed how smoothly this went.

[kokojie]

If you don't have cheap or free electricity, you might as well stop mining now, you can't compete with those people with cheap/free electricity.

[monstrs]

It appears that many has free or cheep electricity. For me, its two 5870's on free electricity and one 7970 downclocked to draw 200W totaly with hole rig at home. At home i ~ 0, because i have to pay for electricity anyway. This is just slightly higher than without 24/7 PC running on 200W.

[mrich8]

I'm still running my GPUs because they provide heat during the winter. Otherwise I would have to run electric heat. I figure I'm breaking even when considering the cost of electric heat vs. the cost of miners - value of coins mined. Come next spring I am shutting everything down and selling most of the equipment for a final cash out. Maybe some ASICs will actually exist in real people's hands by then.

[RodeoX]

Apart from the rules of bitcoin there is absolutely nothing predictable about it.

That has been my observation also. 

[yochdog]

Forum users are a small small minority of the hashing network it often seems, surprising as that may be.

I expect a delay of a week to a month for results to become truly apparent, as people either notice their bitcoin wallets slimming/their pool rewards not being what they once were or they get their next power bill and realize "hey this shit isn't paying itself off so well anymore".

I also expect that the "big boys" (> 100GHash/sec) had to be supremely efficient in the first place to even get that large, and are still making significant enough bucks after the halving that it is worth it to keep going (people with 4GHash/sec might think making just $1-$2 / day is annoying, but multiply that by 25+ and you're still a happy camper).

I was hoping to see some decrease instead of a huge increase in hashing power though, for a graceful decline in hashing power, rather than a big drop that might incite panic.

I can verify this from first hand knowledge. 

[luffy]

FPGAs have no reason to stop as free electricity also:)
but i wonder where the big LTC hashrate increase came from if not from BTC people? 

[Unacceptable]

Whats up with the fluxuation of the network hashrate??? From 23TH-31TH & back,what a swing !!!!

Can we expect swings like this or even more at higher network hashrates??

I've seen it vary by 2TH or so,but WOW 

[Nite69]

FPGAs have no reason to stop as free electricity also:)
but i wonder where the big LTC hashrate increase came from if not from BTC people? 

Big in LTC is minor in BTC, ie if 1% of BTC miners go to LTC it might be for example 10% (using Stetson–Harrison method) or more increase in LTC hashrate.

[ElectricMucus]

It will drop, most miners aren't the best business man, so the hashrate drop will be delayed till the bills come in.

Part of it is mining for principles and some is speculation that the price will shoot up. There are plenty of people mining at a loss right now but most will only realize it when they actually have to pay for their power which isn't for another month or so.

[AngelusWebDesign]

It will drop, most miners aren't the best business man, so the hashrate drop will be delayed till the bills come in.

Part of it is mining for principles and some is speculation that the price will shoot up. There are plenty of people mining at a loss right now but most will only realize it when they actually have to pay for their power which isn't for another month or so.

You hit the nail on the head.

Fact: Many Americans are bad at math (look at the popularity of the Lottery!)
Fact: Many Americans live paycheck-to-paycheck. This shows an inability to budget, live below one's means, insufficient attention to financial detail, etc.
Fact: Many Americans have to LEARN how to be frugal from websites, etc. It isn't something in their bones, or something they grew up with.
Fact: America has much cheaper electricity than, say, Europe -- so a good % of miners are going to be in America right now
Fact: Americans don't read books. Should I assume that they studiously read over their electric bill and understand it?
http://stephenslighthouse.com/2011/04/28/who-reads-books/
Fact: Young Americans are notorious for NOT being frugal. In fact, they are known for wasting their money on all manner of things ($18 for a cotton T-shirt with something specific printed on it?)

Yes, I could see young Americans running their Bitcoin miners just because they can afford it, and they "like" Bitcoin.  If they were losing money, many of them wouldn't even know it!

In fact, because men (let's face it -- the majority of miners) run on ego, I'd also expect them to brag online about how much they're making right now after the block halving. Who's going to verify it anyhow? They could be losing $5 a day and they could still fire up their browser and type in, "I am profitable all the way down to $5/Bitcoin!". Who would be the wiser?

[monstrs]

Some drop already observed ~24TH now, interesting, how low will it drop?