There are many guys calling a bond bubble burst, in reality how is that going to play out?
Suppose that when interest rate rise, people all selling their bond for money, resulting a crash of the bond price, what would that impact economy? Which bond holder is going to be hurt most? Pension fund and social security fund?
Nice post
The junk bond market has seen about 1T in energy junk bonds issuance since 08 iirc. The iShares HYG etf has spiked indicating increased risk of default (and decrease in selling price for bonds issued). I think it is at highest point since Lehman ? As a lot of junk is in energy/oil sector those exploratory companies who issued bonds to raise capital are at breaking point - many expect a rush of defaults in 16.
Memory is foggy but I remember Jim Rickards writing that if defaults were to hit total junk bond market (foggy guess is 4T??) @ 10% we have an event. Igger than sub prime which rippled through system ata few hundred billion. Where would $400bn ripple to ie, will a govt default?
We've already seen a mutual fund (Third whatever *its a bond fund*) "gate" its money from investors and also a hedge fund (StoneLion). So, the problem will be contagion into other classes. If this is a big big event, look for "gated" to be the buzz word!
And you're right, if it hits the wider bond market, everybody who has money in a pension fund / 401(k) / rrp may face hefty losses as contributions are by regulation. And anyone who bought a bond coupon at 0% interest rate loses when it rises to 0.25%. Herein lies the biggest quetion -
who is going to buy all the bonds if people start selling? Does the market have the liquidity?