It's quiet, too quiet. Especially after everyone predicted a major rocket.

[CombustibleLemon]

It seems oddly familiar....big change predicted to be coming...everyone holds their breath and then.......

Something less than the usual.

I keep looking back to last year where everyone expected a HUGE price break after The Goodwife did an entire episode about bitcoin and finding Satoshi.  We built for 2-3 months expecting something amazing...and then...nothing.  What followed was a 30-40%ish price fall (Had to check numbers since I'm tipsy and prone to fudging)

[1715224742]

1715224742

[1715224742]

1715224742

[1715224742]

1715224742

[1715224742]

1715224742

[1715224742]

1715224742

[niko]

It seems oddly familiar....big change predicted to be coming...everyone holds their breath and then.......

Something less than the usual.

I keep looking back to last year where everyone expected a HUGE price break after The Goodwife did an entire episode about bitcoin and finding Satoshi.  We built for 2-3 months expecting something amazing...and then...nothing.  What followed was a 30-40%ish price fall (Had to check numbers since I'm tipsy and prone to fudging)

Why do people even think they can predict the price trend? The only way to be somewhat above the randomness is to rely on methods deemed illegal (insider trading and market manipulation).

[CombustibleLemon]

Since when are human reactions and game theory random?

They are based off of  small set of initial conditions and a similar set of possible reacting conditions.  Far from random there are like what 5 starting positions and 5 possible ending positions(Same, better, much better, worse, much worse)?  It is the very definition of NOT random.  It's exactly 25 possible iterations of beginning and ending conditions.

I'm correlating to a specific, similar event from approximately last year to a specific similar event from approximately this coming year.  It's not random, it's SIMILAR.

[adamstgBit]

Since when are human reactions and game theory random?

They are based off of  small set of initial conditions and a similar set of possible reacting conditions.  Far from random there are like what 5 starting positions and 5 possible ending positions(Same, better, much better, worse, much worse)?  It is the very definition of NOT random.  It's exactly 25 possible iterations of beginning and ending conditions.

I'm correlating to a specific, similar event from approximately last year to a specific similar event from approximately this coming year.  It's not random, it's SIMILAR.

the reason it fell last year was because of pirate40 using everyone's coins to manipulated the market.

[tbcoin]

Since when are human reactions and game theory random?

They are based off of  small set of initial conditions and a similar set of possible reacting conditions.  Far from random there are like what 5 starting positions and 5 possible ending positions(Same, better, much better, worse, much worse)?  It is the very definition of NOT random.  It's exactly 25 possible iterations of beginning and ending conditions.

I'm correlating to a specific, similar event from approximately last year to a specific similar event from approximately this coming year.  It's not random, it's SIMILAR.

the reason it fell last year was because of pirate40 using everyone's coins to manipulated the market.

pirateat40 is a good guy, he always greeted

[smoothie]

Why is it that people can't see that the opposite possiblity of a rocket up could be a rocket down?

"Hmm will it go up?"

"Will it go side ways?"

"It's quiet, why isn't it going up?"

""


LOL!

 

[Kupsi]

It's coming with Santa

(And it's 20% up last month.)

[smoothie]

It's coming with Santa

(And it's 20% up last month.)

Down 25% from 3.5 months ago. LOL

[SlaveInDebt]

It's coming with Santa

(And it's 20% up last month.)

Down 25% from 3.5 months ago. LOL

Silly math...

[Kupsi]

It's coming with Santa

(And it's 20% up last month.)

Down 25% from 3.5 months ago. LOL

Yes, and...

350% up last year.
5500% up last two years.

I win  

[legitnick]

Price goes up, price goes down. You can't explain that!

[trogdorjw73]

A bunch of people are holding BTC waiting for someone else to think, "OMG, the block reward just got halved! I should buy a ton of Bitcoins and hoard them, pushing the price up to $20+." Which of course isn't going to happen any time soon. Plus, people are still waiting for ASICs, which also aren't going to happen any time soon. So instead, everyone holds their breath, the holidays come and go, and we're basically staying the same.

[SlaveInDebt]

A bunch of people are holding BTC waiting for someone else to think, "OMG, the block reward just got halved! I should buy a ton of Bitcoins and hoard them, pushing the price up to $20+." Which of course isn't going to happen any time soon. Plus, people are still waiting for ASICs, which also aren't going to happen any time soon. So instead, everyone holds their breath, the holidays come and go, and we're basically staying the same.

I concur.

[chriswilmer]

I'll throw in my 2 cents.

I think a good model of the bitcoin price is like a ticking bomb. Any day, we might hear that Reddit will accept bitcoins, or some other big business that BitPay is quietly working out a deal with. Or similarly that some very wealthy investor decides to take a chance and buy $500,000 USD of bitcoin.

I for one, would like to see more indicators that track various aspects of the "network effect" (not saying there aren't any right now).

[Yuhfhrh]

I'll throw in my 2 cents.

I think a good model of the bitcoin price is like a ticking bomb. Any day, we might hear that Reddit will accept bitcoins, or some other big business that BitPay is quietly working out a deal with. Or similarly that some very wealthy investor decides to take a chance and buy $500,000 USD of bitcoin.

I for one, would like to see more indicators that track various aspects of the "network effect" (not saying there aren't any right now).

I agree with you completely. Most of us know bitcoins are going to be worth more than $12.50 in the future, we just don't know when or if they will drop down to $5 again beforehand. Very much a ticking time bomb.

[kokojie]

The halving has been priced in since about 5 months ago. It's only normal that the price does not swing wildly due to halving.

The wordpress news did lift the price up over 10%.

[salfter]

Price goes up, price goes down. You can't explain that!

Markets...how do they work? 

[smoothie]

A bunch of people are holding BTC waiting for someone else to think, "OMG, the block reward just got halved! I should buy a ton of Bitcoins and hoard them, pushing the price up to $20+." Which of course isn't going to happen any time soon. Plus, people are still waiting for ASICs, which also aren't going to happen any time soon. So instead, everyone holds their breath, the holidays come and go, and we're basically staying the same.

THIS ^....

The play here is obvious. We know what 90% of people want to do with btc who read this forum.

[enquirer]

Since when are human reactions and game theory random?

They are based off of  small set of initial conditions and a similar set of possible reacting conditions.  Far from random there are like what 5 starting positions and 5 possible ending positions(Same, better, much better, worse, much worse)?  It is the very definition of NOT random.  It's exactly 25 possible iterations of beginning and ending conditions.

I'm correlating to a specific, similar event from approximately last year to a specific similar event from approximately this coming year.  It's not random, it's SIMILAR.

The fallacy here is that there are numerous other CombustibleLemons who follow the same naive logic.
Then there are CombustibleOranges who try to predict what CombustibleLemons will be doing.
Then there are supercomputers which try to outsmart both oranges and lemons.
Asymptotically, it is completely unpredictable mess = random.

[gmiwenht]

[deleted]