New hype cycle starts at $1000. Everything before that is just a warm-up.

[European Central Bank]

Who said that? The person who said that is a noob. The old ATH was a great pump and was never meant to last long. All people who where witness of this pump back in 2013 will agree with that. It was a perfect moment for traders to sell the coins that they bought for $100-$200 for +$1000.

I saw it mentioned in many old threads here and on r/bit coin markets. That  looks like the assumption people were using to reassure themselves before it plunged below it.

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[uki]

The next big wave of new users will begin pouring in at above $1000. Until then, we mostly on our own.

that is true, and I don't see it as a good news, but a bad news. That is, we first have to get to and above $1k in order to start the next bubble phase. Would the next halving event be sufficient to achieve that? I am not fully convinced. To me it looks like there will be a lot of disappointment around if the next top falls around the ath, in contrast to what many here at this forum forecast.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Ok guys, we have to first break $500 and then go to $1,000. Not sure when that's going to happen but it may take a while. I think a lot of you are getting ahead of yourselves but I am hopeful as well.

[jehst]

Ok guys, we have to first break $500 and then go to $1,000. Not sure when that's going to happen but it may take a while. I think a lot of you are getting ahead of yourselves but I am hopeful as well.

As the poster before you stated, this is not necessarily good news. I am saying that we probably won't have much help getting to $1000. It will be a tough battle to get there. Only at $1000 will we get our "reinforcements" (new wave of fresh speculators and users)

[marcus_of_augustus]

BTC has the bad habit of always leaving behind their old ATH by at least 1 order of magnitude.

This is indeed just a warm-up

They also said bit coin never goes below it's old all time high. That didn't work out so well for anyone banking on it. Going above 1000 and settling there is a big task. It's gonna take a while.

in terms of market cap value, it has never gone below it's old all time high ... your calculation essentially omitted the 15-10% inflation we have had for last 3 years by only looking at price, not total market value.

[Moneyburner]

I am really hoping we can sit on the under 1,000 for at least half a year. I need some time to accumulate extra wealth because once it's over that no way am I getting another BTC through regular means

[jehst]

I am really hoping we can sit on the under 1,000 for at least half a year. I need some time to accumulate extra wealth because once it's over that no way am I getting another BTC through regular means

In my study of history, it seems that markets often have a very sharp crash after strong multiyear year bull trends and then begin recovering after two years.

It took about two years for the US stock market to recover after Black Monday (1987) crash. It took about two years for the US market to recover from the tech bubble crash in ~2000.75. It took about two years for the US market to recover from the housing bubble crash in ~2007.75.

The Korean stock index (KOSPI) took about two years to recover after the ~1997 Asian Financial Crisis. It was strongly moving up again by 1999.

I've looked through many examples and 2 years keeps popping up over and over. 1998 Russian default.

So bitcoin has completed its two years since the ~2014.0 crash and now I think there will not be much more time to buy under $1000.

[Moneyburner]

While I would agree that it seems that the sharp crashes often come back to even quicker than most realize, I don't know how much you can really compare it with BTC. (In Theory) a market has a whole economy based behind it, while this is just one 'stock.' (Un???)fortunately the chart as it stands today seems to really be hinting towards what your saying. 

That's why it always amazes me when stock markets crash and everyone leaves at the absolute lowest point

[mirana12345]

Finally someone is sharing the same thoughts about the "breaking the ice". And it's not just pure speculation, because you can
clearly see from large market moves that all that is needed is a small push across the psychological borders (currently 500, next year it will be 1000).

When prices breach certain points like that, the news spreads, adoption rises and price moves, the problem is that it sometimes leads market into a bubble,
like the last one of 1200+ prices.

[jehst]

While I would agree that it seems that the sharp crashes often come back to even quicker than most realize, I don't know how much you can really compare it with BTC. (In Theory) a market has a whole economy based behind it, while this is just one 'stock.' (Un???)fortunately the chart as it stands today seems to really be hinting towards what your saying. 

That's why it always amazes me when stock markets crash and everyone leaves at the absolute lowest point

Bitcoin is an entire economy with a lot of bitcoin companies and uses inside it. I think it's more like a stock index.

[zimmah]

BTC has the bad habit of always leaving behind their old ATH by at least 1 order of magnitude.

This is indeed just a warm-up

I hope your right, Just seems like its been a while since we have been anywhere near breaking ATH.

Well the good thing is once we do break ATH you can be pretty damn sure the media will report it and it will bring even more people to Bitcoin in full FOMO mode and it will make the previous ATH look low in comparison.       

Just like all the previous ATHs dwarved the ATHs before them.     


I would not be surprised if we get a double rally again. First one to $3000 or so and when that one starts dying down a new one will follow relatively soon and bring us all the way to something like $12000

[marcus_of_augustus]

we'll likely go past the gold price before hitting the new ATH this time around. Probably more hype cycles in there ... 

[glendall]

I am really hoping we can sit on the under 1,000 for at least half a year. I need some time to accumulate extra wealth because once it's over that no way am I getting another BTC through regular means

In my study of history, it seems that markets often have a very sharp crash after strong multiyear year bull trends and then begin recovering after two years.

It took about two years for the US stock market to recover after Black Monday (1987) crash. It took about two years for the US market to recover from the tech bubble crash in ~2000.75. It took about two years for the US market to recover from the housing bubble crash in ~2007.75.

The Korean stock index (KOSPI) took about two years to recover after the ~1997 Asian Financial Crisis. It was strongly moving up again by 1999.

I've looked through many examples and 2 years keeps popping up over and over. 1998 Russian default.

So bitcoin has completed its two years since the ~2014.0 crash and now I think there will not be much more time to buy under $1000.

These are valid and worthwhile points but personally I don't feel the comparison is warranted. Bitcoin is not similar enough to stocks to compare, as it is a new paradigm; we are really in uncharted territory with it (literally).   Even just considering bitcoin is data/energy-wealth and non-tangible whereas stocks represent physical, matter-based assets, for the most part (in generalization across an entire stock market as you suggest).

[hunnaryb]

As you can see, too much bullish feelings will just result in blood.

[Ibian]

As you can see, too much bullish feelings will just result in blood.

I am learning not to listen to you. Couple days and we will be well past 465 again.

[uki]

I am really hoping we can sit on the under 1,000 for at least half a year. I need some time to accumulate extra wealth because once it's over that no way am I getting another BTC through regular means

In my study of history, it seems that markets often have a very sharp crash after strong multiyear year bull trends and then begin recovering after two years.

It took about two years for the US stock market to recover after Black Monday (1987) crash. It took about two years for the US market to recover from the tech bubble crash in ~2000.75. It took about two years for the US market to recover from the housing bubble crash in ~2007.75.

The Korean stock index (KOSPI) took about two years to recover after the ~1997 Asian Financial Crisis. It was strongly moving up again by 1999.

I've looked through many examples and 2 years keeps popping up over and over. 1998 Russian default.

So bitcoin has completed its two years since the ~2014.0 crash and now I think there will not be much more time to buy under $1000.

These are valid and worthwhile points but personally I don't feel the comparison is warranted. Bitcoin is not similar enough to stocks to compare, as it is a new paradigm; we are really in uncharted territory with it (literally).   Even just considering bitcoin is data/energy-wealth and non-tangible whereas stocks represent physical, matter-based assets, for the most part (in generalization across an entire stock market as you suggest).

I was going to write exactly that. Too many comparisons between stock markets can't be drawn, as Bitcoin has relatively little history as an asset. It is still in its early development phase, the adoption levels are relatively low and thus one can expect quite a lot of volatility. As for timing, Bitcoin has build-in a mechanism that may influence (at least in the early years) the bear/bull cycles that is halving. Probably this time we are close enough to the next halving to finish the last bear.

[Rizky Aditya]

Yes, this is definitely true. When the price hits $1000, people will start learning about Bitcoin and start to realise how good it is. Until then, we are the only ones using Bitcoin.

[zimmah]

BTC has the bad habit of always leaving behind their old ATH by at least 1 order of magnitude.

This is indeed just a warm-up

They also said bit coin never goes below it's old all time high. That didn't work out so well for anyone banking on it. Going above 1000 and settling there is a big task. It's gonna take a while.

Who said that? The person who said that is a noob. The old ATH was a great pump and was never meant to last long. All people who where witness of this pump back in 2013 will agree with that. It was a perfect moment for traders to sell the coins that they bought for $100-$200 for +$1000.

I am sure we will go over $1000 again, but it costs time. If we do it slowly, then the chances of staying above $1000 are significantly higher this time. Plus there is also the block halving. That will definitely help. Patience is the key. Use the time you have to scoop up more coins in order to benefit at the highest level.

Historically this is a true statement.       

The ATH before we reached $1200 was somewhere in the range of $270 iirc and we haven't dropped below that after we reached $1200 and dropped from there.

Before $270 the ATH was maybe $36 or so, which we never dropped to after reaching $270.

So every time a new ATH is reached the previous ATH serves as a bottom. So the next time we cross the $1200 line we can think of $1200 as our new floor.

[QuintLeo]

False.

 Bitcoin was in the $220-$230 range for quite a while this past summer, LONG after the $1200ish peak.

 There is NO inherent reason NOR DOES THE HISTORY SUPPORT an ATH to serve as a bottom.

[uki]

Historically this is a true statement.       

The ATH before we reached $1200 was somewhere in the range of $270 iirc and we haven't dropped below that after we reached $1200 and dropped from there.

Before $270 the ATH was maybe $36 or so, which we never dropped to after reaching $270.

So every time a new ATH is reached the previous ATH serves as a bottom. So the next time we cross the $1200 line we can think of $1200 as our new floor.

That is a false statement, as it was already pointed out in the post immediately following yours. Moreover, I would be really careful before making such definite statements. Moving on a permanent basis beyond $1000 per coin requires much more of adoption than we have at the moment. We were experiencing very nice increases in the introductory phase of Bitcoin (which is also quite typical for initial phases of successfully starting technologies) but then there comes the saturation phase, during which the pace of the growth is not exponential any more and requires much higher efforts (e.g., adoption) to sustain further growth.