When in 2013 shall Bitcoin break its all-time-high of $31?

[byronbb]

$31 is really just a fake price imo. It was up there for a split second on an exchange that would crash at a moments notice and that was subsequently hacked a few days after this "all time high". The real high imo, is about $20, and even then that was short lived. The actual price point where we had any side-ways action was about $14....

[J-Norm]

If the Iranian people or some other oppressed population with a financial crisis adopt it as a defacto currency then it could hit critical mass where wide spread adoption begins.

Barring that the growth will be slow. I don't think bitcoins have seen there last major increase in value.

[TraderTimm]

Barring extraneous events, (major adoption by service provider/foreign nation/panics/etc...), at a conservative rise of $1 per month, that would be 18 months from now. So, worst case is by the end of May 2014.

However as we know, linear extrapolation has its own flaws.

[bzzard]

The price will drop back down under $4 when people cash out to buy Christmas presents like last year.

I guess a lot of people bought bitcoin as present

[Technomage]

There are 3 likely possibilities for Bitcoin. The first option is that Bitcoin continues to be a currency of the niche. Most of you are thinking along those lines. That is the route of slowing growth rate. Even in that case Bitcoin can break the all-time-high quite easily but it will take some time. The second option is that Bitcoin gets destroyed or fails somehow during the next couple of years.

There is a third option you're not really considering, which I find strange. There is the possibility that Bitcoin really finds some uses that make it lift off and enter mainstream. I believe the possibility of this is not insignificant. If that happens, we will see a growth rate far beyond of 2012. The price would go through $100 like a knife through butter. Instead of 100's of millions, the market cap would be in the billions.

Remember that the spike in 2011 was basically Bitcoin becoming known at all. Mainly in the technology & libertarian circles. If Bitcoin hits mainstream in usage, the spike in 2011 is a blip that will look like a straight horizontal line in the graph of the future. We don't know if this will happen or when it will happen but I think that 2013-2015 is the time it will likely happen if it is to happen.

So in conclusion I'd say that if Bitcoin starts to really show its potential in 2013 we will break through $31. Like it's nothing. However that might not happen or it might happen in later years. In that case there will be a slowing growth rate that is fairly linear, for a while longer at least.

[nobbynobbynoob]

I think Technomage more or less has it right, speculatively. Bitcoin is worth investing in, because either it's a total flop and one loses a bit of money, or it's a major success, even in a niche market, and value explodes, thus making holders rich - although, of course, Bitcoin is no get-rich-quick scheme at all.

[chriswilmer]

There are 3 likely possibilities for Bitcoin. The first option is that Bitcoin continues to be a currency of the niche. Most of you are thinking along those lines. That is the route of slowing growth rate. Even in that case Bitcoin can break the all-time-high quite easily but it will take some time. The second option is that Bitcoin gets destroyed or fails somehow during the next couple of years.

There is a third option you're not really considering, which I find strange. There is the possibility that Bitcoin really finds some uses that make it lift off and enter mainstream. I believe the possibility of this is not insignificant. If that happens, we will see a growth rate far beyond of 2012. The price would go through $100 like a knife through butter. Instead of 100's of millions, the market cap would be in the billions.

Remember that the spike in 2011 was basically Bitcoin becoming known at all. Mainly in the technology & libertarian circles. If Bitcoin hits mainstream in usage, the spike in 2011 is a blip that will look like a straight horizontal line in the graph of the future. We don't know if this will happen or when it will happen but I think that 2013-2015 is the time it will likely happen if it is to happen.

So in conclusion I'd say that if Bitcoin starts to really show its potential in 2013 we will break through $31. Like it's nothing. However that might not happen or it might happen in later years. In that case there will be a slowing growth rate that is fairly linear, for a while longer at least.

+1

[julz]

For me the next interesting price milestone is $17.

At that point, we can well and truly put that awful Wired article "The Rise and Fall of Bitcoin" behind us.
The one that stated:
"... but the damage had been done; the bitcoin never got back above $17."

http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/11/mf_bitcoin/all/

[myrkul]

False premise. Everyone knows the world will end in a little over 2 weeks.

Personally, if it happens in 2013, it will be late in the year. I'm hoping for a slow, steady rise. Of course, the collapse of the dollar may change that. We'll see.

[adamstgBit]

False premise. Everyone knows the world will end in a little over 2 weeks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39btKqMiqiQ

[myrkul]

False premise. Everyone knows the world will end in a little over 2 weeks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39btKqMiqiQ

Why do people keep asking me if I have found Jesus?

A better question would be Why do you fuckers keep losing him?

No offense intended, but I really don't like proselytizing.

[adamstgBit]

False premise. Everyone knows the world will end in a little over 2 weeks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39btKqMiqiQ

Why do people keep asking me if I have found Jesus?

A better question would be Why do you fuckers keep losing him?

No offense intended, but I really don't like proselytizing.

I never had Jesus in the first place.

I guess I'm fucked... Oh well.

[goldlyre]

There are 3 likely possibilities for Bitcoin. The first option is that Bitcoin continues to be a currency of the niche. Most of you are thinking along those lines. That is the route of slowing growth rate. Even in that case Bitcoin can break the all-time-high quite easily but it will take some time. The second option is that Bitcoin gets destroyed or fails somehow during the next couple of years.

There is a third option you're not really considering, which I find strange. There is the possibility that Bitcoin really finds some uses that make it lift off and enter mainstream. I believe the possibility of this is not insignificant. If that happens, we will see a growth rate far beyond of 2012. The price would go through $100 like a knife through butter. Instead of 100's of millions, the market cap would be in the billions.

Remember that the spike in 2011 was basically Bitcoin becoming known at all. Mainly in the technology & libertarian circles. If Bitcoin hits mainstream in usage, the spike in 2011 is a blip that will look like a straight horizontal line in the graph of the future. We don't know if this will happen or when it will happen but I think that 2013-2015 is the time it will likely happen if it is to happen.

So in conclusion I'd say that if Bitcoin starts to really show its potential in 2013 we will break through $31. Like it's nothing. However that might not happen or it might happen in later years. In that case there will be a slowing growth rate that is fairly linear, for a while longer at least.

You're absolutely right. For bitcoin's unique properties and obvious potentials to be possibly adopted in the future (as a ideal money universally acceptable, easily stored and transported, and highly divisible ), it's market cap up-to-date is only $140 million that is astoundingly small. 40 days ago when I heard and joined it, I felt that the market depth was so thin (I buy bitcoin on a Chinese exchange named BtcChina which is ranking as the 10th biggest in the world in term of daily trading volumn and in the local currency RMB), so those monies bigger-than-I (I'm really a very small shrimp in comparison with those huge sharks!) shall surely have ever bigger difficulties than me to find a way sneaking into in. So my conclusion is that if ever the Bitcoin goes mainstream in any extent the price shall go to da moon!

[DoomDumas]

Oh, 1/3 voted never !

I'm surprised, many of those may be disapointed

Let's bet about it on BetsOfBitco.in

I've bet on few statement like this one, around 1st and 2nd quater imo !

[proudhon]

I don't think so.  2015 or maybe 2014.  The surges in prices are less extreme now.  I don't think we will see any +100% years.  $20 maybe.

This.  There are simply too many holders of large collections of bitcoins and as the price increases it's easier and easier for less and less bitcoins to push it back down.  There'd need to be a lot more money on MtGox to get back to $31 and that's just to get there.  There'd need to be even more money to keep it there.  We're probably years away from that.

Hmmmm and what about the return of me.ga? If Kim decides to accept bit coin/litecoin? What would happen?

Probably the same thing that happened when Wordpress accepted bitcoin - a small rise in price.  The fact is that bitcoin is still far too obscure and difficult to use for the vast majority of people.

IMO me.ga (if accepting bitcoins) will have a much greater impact on bitcoin. compared to me.ga wordpress is tiny

Ok, stop right there.  Will you please show me how Wordpress is tiny compared to me.ga?  What data do you have on this?  Did you know that Wordpress is Alexa ranked 22nd among all websites on the internet?  Megaupload was never even close to that before it was taken down.  Why would me.ga, a site based on the same premise as Megaupload, suddenly be much more popular and highly trafficked than Wordpress?

[cbeast]

Bitcoin development is going pretty fast even though it will probably be a few years before it is ready for mass adoption. At that point Bitcoin will be worth several orders of magnitude beyond current value. All it will take for speculators to kick it up a notch is a killer app. These will be plethora when m-of-n transactions become available.

[notme]

Bitcoin development is going pretty fast even though it will probably be a few years before it is ready for mass adoption. At that point Bitcoin will be worth several orders of magnitude beyond current value. All it will take for speculators to kick it up a notch is a killer app. These will be plethora when m-of-n transactions become available.

m-of-n transactions are available, we just need the apps to be built

[cbeast]

Bitcoin development is going pretty fast even though it will probably be a few years before it is ready for mass adoption. At that point Bitcoin will be worth several orders of magnitude beyond current value. All it will take for speculators to kick it up a notch is a killer app. These will be plethora when m-of-n transactions become available.

m-of-n transactions are available, we just need the apps to be built

Yeah, I'm starting to think that will be a couple more years away. Well, more time for me to buy cheap bitcoins!

[mp420]

Bitcoin won't scale to very high prices (adoption) yet, the blockchain size will explode and transaction fees will be very high if BTC adoption (and thus price) is going to grow tenfold. Adoption growing hundredfold would break the network.

Bitcoin is not a mature technology yet.

[mp420]

By the way, I predict all time high spot price in 2014 and around $25 by the end of 2013.