What will happen if there's no price rise for the halfing?

[1Referee]

I believe we will see a decline of the difficulty after halving day due to some big chinese companies shutting down and selling their equipment if the price rise doesn't at least compensate for loss of profitability. These super farms do not want to support the network but simply turn a profit. If the numbers are not rising, or are stagnating, let alone decreasing, some of them will liquidate their mining business.

Well, the difficulty has gone up to insanely high levels. Even if some larger miners shut down their mining operations, then the difficulty will still be very high. The difficulty almost doubled in the last 2 months and will continue to go up. Till now the largest mining farms have had enough time to earn back their invested hardware money. If the price doesn't go up as much as people are hoping for, then these farms can still make a profit.

Beside that, I really think the Chinese giant exchanges Huobi and OKCoin are up to something. If the price doesn't go up by itself, then they will offer a helping hand.

[Denker]

I believe we will see a decline of the difficulty after halving day due to some big chinese companies shutting down and selling their equipment if the price rise doesn't at least compensate for loss of profitability. These super farms do not want to support the network but simply turn a profit. If the numbers are not rising, or are stagnating, let alone decreasing, some of them will liquidate their mining business.

Yepp that would be the logical consequence.But that is no drama as difficulty and hash rate is extremely high. Even if it would drop way more than one could expect the small private miners at home could see it as an opportunity to switch on their equipment again.

[quadriple7]

i think nothing will happen but miners will stop what they are doing right now .

[john2231]

If there's no price rise when halving ends i think you should still holding your bitcoins because no stable price of the bitcoin it will still rise even halving ends. So keeping your bitcoins still be profitable.
But miners will be affected if the halving end maybe the difficulty will be reduce after halving.

[lexuz]

impossible price not rise after halving, that moment will help bitcoin price up even though up a little but i hope price will jump high at least $100-$200 from last price before halving

[ThunderThomas]

Nothing. The current price is good for miners.
But the next generation miners will be even more profitable of the big guys. The small guys will never make ROi.

[valta4065]

If the price doesnt rise then the miners stop mining because of  lack of profit, Once this happens the network becomes less secure and bitcoin starts dying off. Whats to stop this from happening?  Maybe we are getting to prices that cant be maintained with the current user base. I wasnt here at the last halfing and the price will need to be much higher so im not too sure what will happen.

Miners have more coins then everyone else so they are the one who define the price (they won't sell if it's not profitable for them)  , beside ... logically Bitcoin price is based on Supply and demand , so It's impossible for the supply to get halved and the demand stays the same or rise and nothing at all happens to the price ...

Not on the long term for sure, cause it's effectively a supply demand market.
But if it's on the short term, it could have no or very small effect and thus massive dumping would be the direct consequence -> decrease of price!

[romero121]

Just because there is no price increase during halving one can't say that bitcoin is dying. This time the scenario might be the same, there might be no price increase during halving as the current market situation of china is worse than how was it during the last years halving

[valta4065]

Just because there is no price increase during halving one can't say that bitcoin is dying. This time the scenario might be the same, there might be no price increase during halving as the current market situation of china is worse than how was it during the last years halving

Hmm... Yes one can. As it will mean the miners are going to die as they won't earn enough to cover their expenses, which will mean they will stop mining which will mean btc is going to die :p

Am I not getting something?

[LMGTFY]

Just because there is no price increase during halving one can't say that bitcoin is dying. This time the scenario might be the same, there might be no price increase during halving as the current market situation of china is worse than how was it during the last years halving

Hmm... Yes one can. As it will mean the miners are going to die as they won't earn enough to cover their expenses, which will mean they will stop mining which will mean btc is going to die :p

Am I not getting something?

You are not getting something.

"The miners" are not a homogenous group.  Different miners have different fixed costs, different variable costs. They will not stop mining as one big group. The block reward reduction will not come as a total surprise to them - they will have been aware of it just as long as everyone else - and when they determined their own, individual, ROI they will have taken the reduction into account. The most marginal miners may stop mining - but all that means for the remaining mass of miners is that difficulty will decrease.

[valta4065]

Just because there is no price increase during halving one can't say that bitcoin is dying. This time the scenario might be the same, there might be no price increase during halving as the current market situation of china is worse than how was it during the last years halving

Hmm... Yes one can. As it will mean the miners are going to die as they won't earn enough to cover their expenses, which will mean they will stop mining which will mean btc is going to die :p

Am I not getting something?

You are not getting something.

"The miners" are not a homogenous group.  Different miners have different fixed costs, different variable costs. They will not stop mining as one big group. The block reward reduction will not come as a total surprise to them - they will have been aware of it just as long as everyone else - and when they determined their own, individual, ROI they will have taken the reduction into account. The most marginal miners may stop mining - but all that means for the remaining mass of miners is that difficulty will decrease.

OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOH!

I was not getting something xD
So it means that difficulty is directly linked to the amount of miners in action?
Does that mean that we absolutely don't need so many miners? Do we know how many miners we actually need to secure the transactions?

[LMGTFY]

Just because there is no price increase during halving one can't say that bitcoin is dying. This time the scenario might be the same, there might be no price increase during halving as the current market situation of china is worse than how was it during the last years halving

Hmm... Yes one can. As it will mean the miners are going to die as they won't earn enough to cover their expenses, which will mean they will stop mining which will mean btc is going to die :p

Am I not getting something?

You are not getting something.

"The miners" are not a homogenous group.  Different miners have different fixed costs, different variable costs. They will not stop mining as one big group. The block reward reduction will not come as a total surprise to them - they will have been aware of it just as long as everyone else - and when they determined their own, individual, ROI they will have taken the reduction into account. The most marginal miners may stop mining - but all that means for the remaining mass of miners is that difficulty will decrease.

OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOH!

I was not getting something xD
So it means that difficulty is directly linked to the amount of miners in action?
Does that mean that we absolutely don't need so many miners? Do we know how many miners we actually need to secure the transactions?

Not directly linked to the amount of miners, but indirectly through hash power. As the computational power of the network changes, blocks are found more or less frequently. Every 2016 blocks the difficulty changes to keep the rate at which blocks are found close to one block every 6 minutes.

Computational power is what matters, not the amount of miners. Given two mining operations with the same computational power - one a mining pool and the other a vast mining operation owned and operated by one very wealthy individual - there's no computational difference to the network between the two operations (i.e. the probability of either operation finding a block is the same), even though the mining pool aggregates numerous small miners.

[Amph]

Just because there is no price increase during halving one can't say that bitcoin is dying. This time the scenario might be the same, there might be no price increase during halving as the current market situation of china is worse than how was it during the last years halving

Hmm... Yes one can. As it will mean the miners are going to die as they won't earn enough to cover their expenses, which will mean they will stop mining which will mean btc is going to die :p

Am I not getting something?

You are not getting something.

"The miners" are not a homogenous group.  Different miners have different fixed costs, different variable costs. They will not stop mining as one big group. The block reward reduction will not come as a total surprise to them - they will have been aware of it just as long as everyone else - and when they determined their own, individual, ROI they will have taken the reduction into account. The most marginal miners may stop mining - but all that means for the remaining mass of miners is that difficulty will decrease.

if the diff will decrease because those with high rate will leave than the other with lower rate will add more hash, right now they can not because that hash is busy from those with higher rate

so diff will not actually decrease so much as many believe, unless the price fall under a certain amount

[LMGTFY]

Just because there is no price increase during halving one can't say that bitcoin is dying. This time the scenario might be the same, there might be no price increase during halving as the current market situation of china is worse than how was it during the last years halving

Hmm... Yes one can. As it will mean the miners are going to die as they won't earn enough to cover their expenses, which will mean they will stop mining which will mean btc is going to die :p

Am I not getting something?

You are not getting something.

"The miners" are not a homogenous group.  Different miners have different fixed costs, different variable costs. They will not stop mining as one big group. The block reward reduction will not come as a total surprise to them - they will have been aware of it just as long as everyone else - and when they determined their own, individual, ROI they will have taken the reduction into account. The most marginal miners may stop mining - but all that means for the remaining mass of miners is that difficulty will decrease.

if the diff will decrease because those with high rate will leave than the other with lower rate will add more hash, right now they can not because that hash is busy from those with higher rate

so diff will not actually decrease so much as many believe, unless the price fall under a certain amount

I don't think it really matters whether difficulty falls as much as some people think it will. What matters is that it decreases (or increases) in response to the rate at which blocks are found, not by how much it decreases/increases. If it falls a little, a few old miners may purchase new hardware, or a few new miners may enter the game. If it falls a lot many old miners or many new miners or some combination thereof, etc. The point is that the block reward reduction won't be the apocalypse some people seem to think - the system was cleverly designed to anticipate this and find an equilibrium, and has already survived (and thrived!) through the 50 to 25 BTC reduction.

[Amph]

Just because there is no price increase during halving one can't say that bitcoin is dying. This time the scenario might be the same, there might be no price increase during halving as the current market situation of china is worse than how was it during the last years halving

Hmm... Yes one can. As it will mean the miners are going to die as they won't earn enough to cover their expenses, which will mean they will stop mining which will mean btc is going to die :p

Am I not getting something?

You are not getting something.

"The miners" are not a homogenous group.  Different miners have different fixed costs, different variable costs. They will not stop mining as one big group. The block reward reduction will not come as a total surprise to them - they will have been aware of it just as long as everyone else - and when they determined their own, individual, ROI they will have taken the reduction into account. The most marginal miners may stop mining - but all that means for the remaining mass of miners is that difficulty will decrease.

if the diff will decrease because those with high rate will leave than the other with lower rate will add more hash, right now they can not because that hash is busy from those with higher rate

so diff will not actually decrease so much as many believe, unless the price fall under a certain amount

I don't think it really matters whether difficulty falls as much as some people think it will. What matters is that it decreases (or increases) in response to the rate at which blocks are found, not by how much it decreases/increases. If it falls a little, a few old miners may purchase new hardware, or a few new miners may enter the game. If it falls a lot many old miners or many new miners or some combination thereof, etc. The point is that the block reward reduction won't be the apocalypse some people seem to think - the system was cleverly designed to anticipate this and find an equilibrium, and has already survived (and thrived!) through the 50 to 25 BTC reduction.

well yes i understand that there always be profit for someone, there will be always miners out there, but the point is not getting a reverse trend on the diff

where the diff keep going down because the value is going down, i believe that the halving is there to force a certain threshold on the value, and maintaining the network always more secure than before

[~Bitcoin~]

i think nothing will happen but miners will stop what they are doing right now .

I don't think all of the miners will stop mining, we may see some of the small miners leaving not the big one. As the current price may be still profitable for big ones which has lower running cost.

[coldbound]

The price will slowly bleed to who knows where.

[MaritiJames3]

Then miners will quit their jobs. Because they won't be able to make any profit.

They will stop differently, that's one thing for sure but most professional miners already have a lot of bitcoins on their wallet. So its no problem for them if it happen, it would be a real pity if the price will not rise at all.

[avw1982]

Then miners will quit their jobs. Because they won't be able to make any profit.

They will stop differently, that's one thing for sure but most professional miners already have a lot of bitcoins on their wallet. So its no problem for them if it happen, it would be a real pity if the price will not rise at all.

I guess op is not aware of effects of halving. First mining rate reduce to half the value according to current mining level of bitcoins. Demand in a market will get increase for bitcoin, miners will get more pay than now for mining. Once demand is on market. Sure cen percent price will change accordingly.

[praprata]

I think the miners, will cry out loud it will be a real pity for them.
But the halving is also a good thing for us to make profit if it would rise.