Halving already 100% priced in! Would you buy or sell now?

[gentlemand]

It's still over half a year away. I don't see how something like that can be priced in yet. I'm far from convinced that it will have much effect but there's no way of knowing until the moment approaches.

[adamstgBit]

supply will slow to a crawl as demand picks up big time.

>32,000$ <2 years.

 

[killerjoegreece]

none i would just hold and when it goes low i would buy

[randy8777]

i don't think the block halving price is 100% priced in already. i definitely won't sell any of my cold wallet coins at current price. i think there still is a 100% gain that we can achieve this year from current price.

[tokeweed]

Read in several threads that mining would still be profitable for most miners if price wouldn't change at all when halving kicks in.

Until today I was absolutely sure the price would go up long before summer but apart from the psychological factor and the entire community awaiting an increase there is no reason this would happen. Were we all wrong? Ever since the first halving new coins hitting the market play only a minor role (no role at all anymore for BTC pricing). So why would the price go up?

I don't know about you but perhaps this isn't the time for coin accumulation after all. 430 is too low to sell and too high to buy imo.

If the halving is already priced then it's better to sell now

[The Sceptical Chymist]

I've brought up the efficient market hypothesis as it pertains to the halving, but I've never had a response.  I too think it's already priced in, if indeed it can be priced in.  I'm not 100% sure how the bitcoin market works.  Stocks I can understand because there are businesses behind the shares that can be analyzed, but bitcoin is something else.  Nevertheless I don't think the price is going to be affected all that much.  Guess we'll see, eh?

[Kevin77]

I do not think price of bitcoin completed the climbing for the pre-halving consequence. May be it got doubled it's value, but that is not meaning, it has achieved all the appreciations for halving.
We are still far away from halving, so expect another doubling in bitcoin prices.

[greBit]

I do not think price of bitcoin completed the climbing for the pre-halving consequence. May be it got doubled it's value, but that is not meaning, it has achieved all the appreciations for halving.
We are still far away from halving, so expect another doubling in bitcoin prices.

Yes we are just holding our fingers crossed and waiting for halving to happen because only the experienced people with more knowledge about Bitcoin will understand the affect of Halving.

[Arcteryx]

It is middle ground pricing. This  I agree with in the OP but having it already adjusted into the current price  this I am having a difficult time to believe. Any proofs on this theory? I mean hard evidence.

[r0ach]

No, the halving is not priced in when it started to rise 8 months out.  The big halving rise won't even start till around 3 months ahead of the halving.  Halving will see a minimum of $600, but it will likely overshoot much higher then come back down and could also cause a bubble to $1600-3200 in the process.  The goal of all big BTC holders was to accumulate most of it then pump later, and around 80% will already be mined by around that time, so then it's time to pump to the moon again.

[helloeverybody]

I will just be holding for the foreseeable future, either bitcoin willl rise to unimaginable  highs or i will lose all that ive invested. Whatever happens i dont need to do anything.

[maku]

The halving is really weird occurence imo. From logical point of view price of bitcoin should rise significantly (less bitcoin in circulation=more demand=price rise)
But I learned that after previous halvings price always went down (either after 1st bitcoin halving or litecoin halving) Which is rather surprising for me.
So there is a reason why this time should be different?

[richardsNY]

I don't think so, there is much more room for growth. I do even think we may see a new ATH this year. If you do think the halving is fully priced in, then you are better off by selling your coins and wait some months to buy back.

[r0ach]

There's also the factor that if hodlers currently aren't selling, the price probably needs to go higher to make them spend Bitcoins, otherwise they will just buy more until all supply is deleted and then they force it higher.

[chesthing]

The halving is really weird occurence imo. From logical point of view price of bitcoin should rise significantly (less bitcoin in circulation=more demand=price rise)
But I learned that after previous halvings price always went down (either after 1st bitcoin halving or litecoin halving) Which is rather surprising for me.
So there is a reason why this time should be different?

What do you think that 4x rise the month before the last litecoin halving was? you think that was just coincidental?
And that was with a coin hardly anybody uses or gives a fuck about.
I'd like to know why the OP thinks the bitcoin halving is priced in; to make such a statement he must have reliable data on the 3500 new coins created each day over the last year; what percentage were sold right away and absorbed by the market? what percentage of that number vs the total traded each day? let's see some proof of what you say.

[maokoto]

I expect it to go up more, but am not as convinced as to buy a lot know. So I will keep doing what I usually do: buy then sell about 0.8-1.2 $ higher, while I keep a nice amount just in case it goes up abruptly. If it goes down abruptly instead, I will buy some more.

You may call this strategy "up with caution".

[mudiko]

I don't get how u can tell that its priced so confident

[disclaimer201]

I have no hard proof whatsoever. I just found the idea of the entire community thinking we will see a new ATH this year mostly because of the block reward halving unlikely. Mining hasn't had a direct effect on the price for almost four years. It just never worked out the way everyone believed it would all these years. If China buys up coins and gold...that's another story.

[chesthing]

I have no hard proof whatsoever. I just found the idea of the entire community thinking we will see a new ATH this year mostly because of the block reward halving unlikely. Mining hasn't had a direct effect on the price for almost four years. It just never worked out the way everyone believed it would all these years. If China buys up coins and gold...that's another story.

Prefacing your thread title with "I believe..." would be a hell of a lot more accurate than stating it as fact. Don't you think? Or do you not care if you are lumped in with the fucktard trolls around here espousing all kinds of bullshit all the time...

[abs350]

Yes it is priced in.  For you guys it wont be but then again you are not holding a lot of coins.  Anyone who has a lot of coins will have already done the sums and worked out that it is better to invest now than in 5 years because of the halving. Therefore they will have already bought now instead of waiting. Thats why its already priced in. maybe they bought 1 year ago, 2 years ago, who knows.. But they will have already bought btc with the halving in mind.

The same thing for the block size. Anyone making a big investment will have considered it seriously already.

Believe me just because the miners will be selling less it doesnt mean the price will be going up. Thats not how things work. There are many very intelligent people who have priced in all these factors into their investment decision already. Bitcoin is not an amateurs market there are some whales who are doing most of the trading these days. You guys dont make any difference in the price compared to them.

Also why would u sell now if you believe its priced in?? The fact is that the halving wont make any difference to the price. Its 100% certain it will happen and 100% predicted already. There are other things that are not predicted they are the things that will be moving the price.