Halving already 100% priced in! Would you buy or sell now?

[chesthing]

Yes it is priced in.  For you guys it wont be but then again you are not holding a lot of coins.  Anyone who has a lot of coins will have already done the sums and worked out that it is better to invest now than in 5 years because of the halving. Therefore they will have already bought now instead of waiting. Thats why its already priced in. maybe they bought 1 year ago, 2 years ago, who knows.. But they will have already bought btc with the halving in mind.

The same thing for the block size. Anyone making a big investment will have considered it seriously already.

Believe me just because the miners will be selling less it doesnt mean the price will be going up. Thats not how things work. There are many very intelligent people who have priced in all these factors into their investment decision already. Bitcoin is not an amateurs market there are some whales who are doing most of the trading these days. You guys dont make any difference in the price compared to them.

Also why would u sell now if you believe its priced in?? The fact is that the halving wont make any difference to the price. Its 100% certain it will happen and 100% predicted already. There are other things that are not predicted they are the things that will be moving the price.

[abs350]

Yes it is priced in.  For you guys it wont be but then again you are not holding a lot of coins.  Anyone who has a lot of coins will have already done the sums and worked out that it is better to invest now than in 5 years because of the halving. Therefore they will have already bought now instead of waiting. Thats why its already priced in. maybe they bought 1 year ago, 2 years ago, who knows.. But they will have already bought btc with the halving in mind.

The same thing for the block size. Anyone making a big investment will have considered it seriously already.

Believe me just because the miners will be selling less it doesnt mean the price will be going up. Thats not how things work. There are many very intelligent people who have priced in all these factors into their investment decision already. Bitcoin is not an amateurs market there are some whales who are doing most of the trading these days. You guys dont make any difference in the price compared to them.

Also why would u sell now if you believe its priced in?? The fact is that the halving wont make any difference to the price. Its 100% certain it will happen and 100% predicted already. There are other things that are not predicted they are the things that will be moving the price.

Whats the big deal? its not really a big deal tbh.  Its just a freakin block sizing

[1Referee]

It's too early to say that the block halving is already 100% priced in. You can only say this at least 1 month before the halving. If by that time the price hasn't gone up much higher than current level, then you are spot on. Right now, what you say is nothing more than a rough guess.

[chesthing]

It's too early to say that the block halving is already 100% priced in. You can only say this at least 1 month before the halving. If by that time the price hasn't gone up much higher than current level, then you are spot on. Right now, what you say is nothing more than a rough guess.

What he said, so STFU with your amateur analysis.

[1Referee]

It's too early to say that the block halving is already 100% priced in. You can only say this at least 1 month before the halving. If by that time the price hasn't gone up much higher than current level, then you are spot on. Right now, what you say is nothing more than a rough guess.

What he said, so STFU with your amateur analysis.

Yeah right, we will see how amateur my analysis/prediction is when we are just 1 month away from the actual halving.

[chesthing]

It's too early to say that the block halving is already 100% priced in. You can only say this at least 1 month before the halving. If by that time the price hasn't gone up much higher than current level, then you are spot on. Right now, what you say is nothing more than a rough guess.

What he said, so STFU with your amateur analysis.

Yeah right, we will see how amateur my analysis/prediction is when we are just 1 month away from the actual halving.

Uh, I was agreeing with you and talking to those whom you are addressing.

[1Referee]

It's too early to say that the block halving is already 100% priced in. You can only say this at least 1 month before the halving. If by that time the price hasn't gone up much higher than current level, then you are spot on. Right now, what you say is nothing more than a rough guess.

What he said, so STFU with your amateur analysis.

Yeah right, we will see how amateur my analysis/prediction is when we are just 1 month away from the actual halving.

Uh, I was agreeing with you and talking to those whom you are addressing.

Oh sorry, I thought you were talking about me. My bad.

[chesthing]

It's too early to say that the block halving is already 100% priced in. You can only say this at least 1 month before the halving. If by that time the price hasn't gone up much higher than current level, then you are spot on. Right now, what you say is nothing more than a rough guess.

What he said, so STFU with your amateur analysis.

Yeah right, we will see how amateur my analysis/prediction is when we are just 1 month away from the actual halving.

Uh, I was agreeing with you and talking to those whom you are addressing.

Oh sorry, I thought you were talking about me. My bad.

NP, let's just wait and see - with any luck these losers will miss out on a great pump.

[disclaimer201]

There will be new pumps alright, but mainly because regular users believe the price must go up by this summer. If there are pumps, there will be dumps. Why? Mere mass-psychology.

I started this thread to find out your opinion and the general view seems to be halving is not priced in. SO business as usual, just HODL and sell high.

[Blue_Tiger73]

When halving comes of course I will sell. I will buy now.

[~Bitcoin~]

When halving comes of course I will sell. I will buy now.

Lots of people are like you out there who are buying predicting price to rocket during halving. This is creating strong buying force above 400 so better ride this uptrend, i am also buying or collecting.

[bitgolden]

When halving comes of course I will sell. I will buy now.

Lots of people are like you out there who are buying predicting price to rocket during halving. This is creating strong buying force above 400 so better ride this uptrend, i am also buying or collecting.

I am also currently getting hold of as many coins as I can and am holding till the halving. I just hope it does increase by then so that I can sell them and if it doesn't I'll have to just keep waiting. If it just reaches $600, it would be the right time to sell. Fingers crossed.

[afbitcoins]

I get puzzled by numerous comments I have seen here and on other threads stating that nothing happened on the last halving!!!! My memory was that bitcoin went wildly bullish during the last halving. In order to remind myself which version is right and satisfy my curiosity I decided to look it up.

The last halving was on 28th Nov 2012 when block reward halved from 50 btc to 25 btc
http://www.prlog.org/12032578-bitcoin-community-celebrates-halving-day.html

I've marked that event on this chart with this orange vertical line


edit: Improved chart

OK it didnt go boom and do a price doubling on that exact day but really look at the price how it was rising to unfathomable new highs just afterwards.

This looks like a massive speculative bubble followed by correction and only eventually after a long time true price starting to be known.

I think next halving is not priced in but again most likely there will be a huge speculative bubble.

Litecoin was similar recently except the speculative bubble was sooner.

My conclusion is that we are likely on the cusp of another huge speculative bubble. Only much later after bubble has deflated will new bitcoin supply be truely priced in.
 

[Denker]

It's too early to say that the block halving is already 100% priced in. You can only say this at least 1 month before the halving. If by that time the price hasn't gone up much higher than current level, then you are spot on. Right now, what you say is nothing more than a rough guess.

Yeah I agree. It's way too early for a priced in halving imo. There's almost 8 months to go before it happens.
In 4-5 months we can start to argue about that I think if price shouldn't have moved significantly.But not now.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I get puzzled by numerous comments I have seen here and on other threads stating that nothing happened on the last halving!!!! My memory was that bitcoin went wildly bullish during the last halving. In order to remind myself which version is right and satisfy my curiosity I decided to look it up.

The last halving was on 28th Nov 2012 when block reward halved from 50 btc to 25 btc
http://www.prlog.org/12032578-bitcoin-community-celebrates-halving-day.html

I've marked that event on this chart with this orange vertical line


edit: Improved chart

OK it didnt go boom and do a price doubling on that exact day but really look at the price how it was rising to unfathomable new highs just afterwards.

This looks like a massive speculative bubble followed by correction and only eventually after a long time true price starting to be known.

I think next halving is not priced in but again most likely there will be a huge speculative bubble.

Litecoin was similar recently except the speculative bubble was sooner.

My conclusion is that we are likely on the cusp of another huge speculative bubble. Only much later after bubble has deflated will new bitcoin supply be truely priced in.
 

Except Litecoin only hit 20% of it's ATH!

On the question "is it priced in?" I think a close to real value is priced in. What is not priced in, is speculation on what others speculate. What I mean is that you have speculators that think imminent doubling from whatever price it is, at the time (Speculator-A). Then you have speculators that don't give a rats ass as long as there is movement (Speculator-B) and knowing that others think there will be movement. The latter being the ones who actually move the price later since all the ones that "guarantee" it will go up have already bought. The ones who know there will likely be a pump just because it did last time (Speculator-C) have also front run the halving, effectively removing a large amount of buying force from the event (A + C). Does this mean it will rally, but not as much as most believe? It's hard to say yet, but it's also an event that is similar to a triangle consolidation.. Since we know how it worked out last time, this time should be the same. However, every oscillation weakens from the last because of front running and thereby limiting the remaining driving force.

Speculators A and C are (or will be by the halving) out of the game in that they will provide no measurable pressure for any rise due in part or in full of the halving. Speculator-B will be the ones that actually create the rally based on what they speculate others are doing. This may have a muted effect on any halving rally we get since they aren't going to buy it all the way to $30k so the rest can get rich.

Basically, I agree with af in that the speculative bubble is not actually the pricing in of the halving. The true price is only after the price jump (or lack thereof) and subsequent decline, but I think that this halving will have less effect than the previous one, and will be stronger than the next.

[disclaimer201]

Quick recap: What you are saying is halving may in fact be priced in, but all sorts of speculation on the halving hasn't. Experience tells us the price increase (or pump) largely happened after the last halving, not before. In any case we will likely see a pump or an overvaluation of the price before the price settles to a probably higher level than the current price. The pump may not be as powerful as it was the first time. I would agree here as well, even guessing halving the reward would take a much longer time to affect the market than it did 4 years ago. We already have 15 of 21 million coins out in the wild. Some believe the pump will catapult Bitcoin into a whole other sphere of 2-3k USD. But say the price rises due to adoption/China/speculation on perceived truth of "block reward halving must have a great effect on price" before, it will most likeky settle significantly higher than what it is now.

So if I want to buy now and have patience to hold it will be a safe mid-term investment (I'm guessing 1 year). We have a few more months left and if I decided to wait a bit longer, there may still be a chance for lower prices before we really go up for good. All things considered we may even have enough time to see another major pump and dump that has nothing to do yet with actual block reward halving market dynamics, but a lot to do with false or premature hopes (short term 6 months), greed due to mass psychology and a general new Bitcoin fuzz due to print and electronic media jumping on the halving band-wagon. The media will do this for sure as the halving is an actual event and they care little about whether users hopes for a new ATH will come true or not.

[chesthing]

I get puzzled by numerous comments I have seen here and on other threads stating that nothing happened on the last halving!!!! My memory was that bitcoin went wildly bullish during the last halving. In order to remind myself which version is right and satisfy my curiosity I decided to look it up.

The last halving was on 28th Nov 2012 when block reward halved from 50 btc to 25 btc
http://www.prlog.org/12032578-bitcoin-community-celebrates-halving-day.html

I've marked that event on this chart with this orange vertical line


edit: Improved chart

OK it didnt go boom and do a price doubling on that exact day but really look at the price how it was rising to unfathomable new highs just afterwards.

This looks like a massive speculative bubble followed by correction and only eventually after a long time true price starting to be known.

I think next halving is not priced in but again most likely there will be a huge speculative bubble.

Litecoin was similar recently except the speculative bubble was sooner.

My conclusion is that we are likely on the cusp of another huge speculative bubble. Only much later after bubble has deflated will new bitcoin supply be truely priced in.
 

Except Litecoin only hit 20% of it's ATH!

That's because litecoin is a shitcoin, duh.

[keystroke]

Interesting fact: If the current price of bitcoin doubles for the halving then "market cap" will be equal to what it was at the last ATH.

[Amph]

remember that the current price is already good for the halving, but this is for now

there are still 7 months before the halving, which mean that plenty of thing will change, but if everything will remain the same by the time that the halving come, diff included

then yes there is no reason for the price to grow to accomodate the halving

[lixer]

remember that the current price is already good for the halving, but this is for now

there are still 7 months before the halving, which mean that plenty of thing will change, but if everything will remain the same by the time that the halving come, diff included

then yes there is no reason for the price to grow to accomodate the halving

You're talking about only the in view of miners' and their mining costs effectiveness.
But there would be sudden change in supply of bitcoin which will trigger how people will be seeing on bitcoin's future.
We cannot estimate the people's predictions on demand supply conflict, which may lead to a new life time high price also.