Block reward halving and BC price

[Drewski]

Has mining really changed since ASIC showed up?  I mean, any efficiency increases at this point are going to be incremental rather than revolutionary.  The machines doing the mining are already optimized for the task at hand.

[mrhelpful]

Has mining really changed since ASIC showed up?  I mean, any efficiency increases at this point are going to be incremental rather than revolutionary.  The machines doing the mining are already optimized for the task at hand.

Mining is always changing, esp when those producers are investing in more effecient ways to mine outside from the ASIC chip route.

You can see now the smallest efficient miners by antminer are these tiny wireless router looking things and most are with cloud despite the risk.

If we discover a way faster chip then the ASIC then yes, but until then best we can do is cut down the energy consumption on a miner at this point like the producers have done.

[Amph]

But won't halving functionally double the cost of mining?  And if the miners are facing doubled costs, the only answer is doubled prices.

no because there is something called asic efficiency, which essentially doubles for every new generation, so their consumption is basically halved

and the value yes is manipulated by the mienrs itself to face the halving, it's not like there is a secret demand that increase the value at each halving...

[Orielres]

But won't halving functionally double the cost of mining?  And if the miners are facing doubled costs, the only answer is doubled prices.

no because there is something called asic efficiency, which essentially doubles for every new generation, so their consumption is basically halved

and the value yes is manipulated by the mienrs itself to face the halving, it's not like there is a secret demand that increase the value at each halving...

If the demand is the same and the supply is halved, the price will rise. But will not double as supply can be from existing coins.

[rekinthis]

Currently new BC are created worth of 1.4 million dollars every day. If we assume that the current need for BC is worth of 1.4 million dollars a day and BC supply halves, shouldn't that mean, that price should double? Or has that allready been baked in the current price?

Well halving means that miners will get less money so price will have to rise or miners won't mine anymore, so we should see a decent price rise after halving, which will happen in july, and i think that we will see price around 700$ after halving

[odolvlobo]

If the demand is the same and the supply is halved, the price will rise. But will not double as supply can be from existing coins.

The supply is not halved. Bitcoins are not consumed. The supply is greater now than before the previous halving, and it will be greater after the next halving than it is now.

Well halving means that miners will get less money so price will have to rise or miners won't mine anymore, so we should see a decent price rise after halving, which will happen in july, and i think that we will see price around 700$ after halving

If the price does not rise after the halving, then some miners will certainly stop mining. This will cause the difficulty to fall but it will not cause the price to rise.

[jaysabi]

Currently new BC are created worth of 1.4 million dollars every day. If we assume that the current need for BC is worth of 1.4 million dollars a day and BC supply halves, shouldn't that mean, that price should double? Or has that allready been baked in the current price?

I would assume that most of the increase has already been baked into the current price. Everyone has known about the halving, and everyone is of the mind it will increase the price. From that perspective, consider that the price has risen from $220 in August of 2015 to $410 in March of 2016, a slow and steady increase of 86% shortly before the halving.

Coincidence?

[jaysabi]

If the demand is the same and the supply is halved, the price will rise. But will not double as supply can be from existing coins.

The supply is not halved. Bitcoins are not consumed. The supply is greater now than before the previous halving, and it will be greater after the next halving than it is now.

I think he's talking about the inflationary supply of the newly minted coins. The rate they are produced is halved, but it's not the same as supply.

[Amph]

Currently new BC are created worth of 1.4 million dollars every day. If we assume that the current need for BC is worth of 1.4 million dollars a day and BC supply halves, shouldn't that mean, that price should double? Or has that allready been baked in the current price?

I would assume that most of the increase has already been baked into the current price. Everyone has known about the halving, and everyone is of the mind it will increase the price. From that perspective, consider that the price has risen from $220 in August of 2015 to $410 in March of 2016, a slow and steady increase of 86% shortly before the halving.

Coincidence?

that increase is already nullified from the diff increase, that it will increase again if new asic will come before the halving, so the halving need in some way to generate a new high in value to sustain the miners profit

it can be that miners ar elucky and there will be an increase in demand, they can will be able to make some profit before this happen even after the halving, tnx to their new gear with better efficiency

or simpy they will manipulate the value to increase it artificially

[knowhow]

Well the halving will affect the price as already had affected,bitcoin jumped from 250 dollars to 400  because the halving.I dont know how long the aproaching of it may affect once again the bitcoin price.But till end the year bitcoin will hit atleast 600 dollars,if the miners or the comunity will pump the coin i dont know but one thing is sure it will go up.

[jaysabi]

It's not at all guaranteed to to $600 by the end of the year. If it were, it would already be there because otherwise people would be leaving money on the table. I think you mean to say you *hope* it gets to $600 by the end of the year, but I'm skeptical. I would guess it's likely we see a price fall after the halving from all the people expecting a huge price swing and then dumping quickly if it doesn't materialize.

[pooya87]

there is nothing for sure when it comes to speculating about bitcoin price, you can just make guesses by looking at the charts and do some analysis plus checking how the overall tendency is.
so far it looks good, and all things point to a rise because of the block halving.

[jaysabi]

Or its already did risen because of the halving. It's nearly doubled since August. There's not a real good reason to expect it to rise further at this point because of the halving.

[randy8777]

Or its already did risen because of the halving. It's nearly doubled since August. There's not a real good reason to expect it to rise further at this point because of the halving.

it definitely is a possibility that the block halving price is already calculated in todays price, but i strongly think we can gain at least another 50% from current price level this year. just wait for the panic buyers to start buying as they don't want to stay behind. last minute buyers will probably cause a small rally just before or just after the halving. that's what people here are waiting for. ACTION!

[vendetahome]

Or its already did risen because of the halving. It's nearly doubled since August. There's not a real good reason to expect it to rise further at this point because of the halving.

so what that it has doubled? it is going to rise even more, most of people will start buying bitcoins like a few weeks before halving

in my opinion we just need to wait and see if the bitcoin price will rise, i personally am holding my bitcoins right now and waiting

[KennyR]

But won't halving functionally double the cost of mining?  And if the miners are facing doubled costs, the only answer is doubled prices.

no because there is something called asic efficiency, which essentially doubles for every new generation, so their consumption is basically halved

and the value yes is manipulated by the mienrs itself to face the halving, it's not like there is a secret demand that increase the value at each halving...

If the demand is the same and the supply is halved, the price will rise. But will not double as supply can be from existing coins.

Always demand increases gradually when user increase. Also the supply will be continued with the previously mined coins, upcoming product gets halved.

[Pitchblackroom]

Or its already did risen because of the halving. It's nearly doubled since August. There's not a real good reason to expect it to rise further at this point because of the halving.

so what that it has doubled? it is going to rise even more, most of people will start buying bitcoins like a few weeks before halving

in my opinion we just need to wait and see if the bitcoin price will rise, i personally am holding my bitcoins right now and waiting

Yeah but even though the price will possibly go up, do you think it will go as much as 50%? I feel like those type of days for coins are few and far between.
The 2013 years are over, sad but its true.

[KennyR]

Or its already did risen because of the halving. It's nearly doubled since August. There's not a real good reason to expect it to rise further at this point because of the halving.

so what that it has doubled? it is going to rise even more, most of people will start buying bitcoins like a few weeks before halving

in my opinion we just need to wait and see if the bitcoin price will rise, i personally am holding my bitcoins right now and waiting

Yeah but even though the price will possibly go up, do you think it will go as much as 50%? I feel like those type of days for coins are few and far between.
The 2013 years are over, sad but its true.

Exactly said, every time we can't expect the same 50% increase. By the year of 2013  the price went steep increase due to the entry of large number of users and their imaginative speculations.

[jaysabi]

Or its already did risen because of the halving. It's nearly doubled since August. There's not a real good reason to expect it to rise further at this point because of the halving.

so what that it has doubled? it is going to rise even more, most of people will start buying bitcoins like a few weeks before halving

in my opinion we just need to wait and see if the bitcoin price will rise, i personally am holding my bitcoins right now and waiting

The point is that smart people bought because of the halving a long time ago. The price is not going to magically double the day before the halving, but that's what simple people expect. So if you do get a rush of morons buying the day before the halving, it will create a bubble that will pop as soon as the upwards momentum runs out, so if you're buying now, you're basically gambling that you won't be one of the people holding the bag as the bubble deflates.

The time for Bitcoin to increase in price because of the halving has already passed from an economic standpoint because rational markets are forward-looking and liquid markets are efficient, which means the obvious economic reason for a price increase is already baked into the price. The next "halving" related increase will be based on mania, hype, and speculation. If you want to gamble like that, just go play a dice game, as you can get much more reasonable odds.

[Jambolb2]

Or its already did risen because of the halving. It's nearly doubled since August. There's not a real good reason to expect it to rise further at this point because of the halving.

so what that it has doubled? it is going to rise even more, most of people will start buying bitcoins like a few weeks before halving

in my opinion we just need to wait and see if the bitcoin price will rise, i personally am holding my bitcoins right now and waiting

The point is that smart people bought because of the halving a long time ago. The price is not going to magically double the day before the halving, but that's what simple people expect. So if you do get a rush of morons buying the day before the halving, it will create a bubble that will pop as soon as the upwards momentum runs out, so if you're buying now, you're basically gambling that you won't be one of the people holding the bag as the bubble deflates.

The time for Bitcoin to increase in price because of the halving has already passed from an economic standpoint because rational markets are forward-looking and liquid markets are efficient, which means the obvious economic reason for a price increase is already baked into the price. The next "halving" related increase will be based on mania, hype, and speculation. If you want to gamble like that, just go play a dice game, as you can get much more reasonable odds.

The price could double to $800 a few months after the halving. But it will reach at least $800 this year.