Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed!

[philipma1957]

75 blocks to closing!

-3.5 = Quickseller
-3.0 = pusttiu
-0.2 = edonkey
+1.1= indiemax
+1.7 = bileq
+2.6 = Amph
+2.7 = philipma1957
+2.8 = radiumsoup
+3.1 = tertius993
+3.2 = tlhIlwI
+3.5 = Ankara
+3.6 = Mikestang
+3.7 = -droid-
+3.8 = Notlist3d
+4.0 = wlefever
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = alh
+4.4 = ACAB
+4.5  = Zebedee
+4.7 = ezeminer
+5.0 = Valkir
+5.2 = blindminer
+5.4 = flikflak
+5.5 = tennozer
+6.0 = Lituation
+6.1 = kama
+6.5 = ingiltere
+6.6 = fr4nkthetank
+7.0 = mavericklm
+8.4 = wpt1wpt1
+9.1 = VirosaGITS
+9.3 = adaseb
+20.0 = Lauda  

https://bitcoincharts.com/



Blocks   394189
Total BTC   15.105M
 
Difficulty   113354299801
Estimated   116540835244 in 911 blks >>>>>>>>>>>> (+2.82%)
 
Network total   862270.269 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.38 / 565 s




https://blockchain.info/blocks



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty >>>>>> (+4.12%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   113,354,299,801
Estimated Next Difficulty:   118,028,020,610 (+4.12%)
Adjust time:   After 911 Blocks, About 6.3 days
Hashrate(?):   875,844,320 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.0 minutes
6 blocks: 60.0 minutes
Updated:   19:5 (5.1 minutes ago)

















we stop  allowing picks in 67 blocks.

[philipma1957]

2.7 = philipma1957

[edonkey]

+4.3 = alh

@edonkey: You have your cat tasked incorrectly. He/She needs to be doing Powerball numbers, not BTC difficulty changes!  

Thanks, but we tried that. The best we ever got was one of our cats guessed a couple of correct lottery numbers.

Kind of like a moderately high "bestshare" value. Doesn't really count, but makes for a good story

[Mikestang]

There are some very odd guesses this adjustment period.  I wonder if these people guessed way early or just don't look at the current trends before guessing?  I'm still amazed that the network continues steady growth period after period.

[vortexz]

+2.4 = vortexz

[RichBC]

There are some very odd guesses this adjustment period.  I wonder if these people guessed way early or just don't look at the current trends before guessing?  I'm still amazed that the network continues steady growth period after period.

As ever it's a tough call... I am going to leave it to the last moment to make my pick. I think most of the picks are in the possible range, definitely the lower range at -3.5% is possible if some older gear was switched off. At the high end I think some of the guesses are a bit wild. We are at about -1% at the moment (Block 1166 for the period) so I think that rules out anything much above 5%.

Rich

[Kexkey]

+4.9 = Kexkey

Thanks!

[philipma1957]

19 blocks to closing!

-3.5 = Quickseller
-3.0 = pusttiu
-0.2 = edonkey

 0.0 = skuser

+1.1= indiemax
+1.7 = bileq
+2.3 = RichBC
+2.4 = vortexz
+2.6 = Amph
+2.7 = philipma1957
+2.8 = radiumsoup
+3.1 = tertius993
+3.2 = tlhIlwI
+3.5 = Ankara
+3.6 = Mikestang
+3.7 = -droid-
+3.8 = Notlist3d
+4.0 = wlefever
+4.1 = d57heinz
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = alh
+4.4 = ACAB
+4.5  = Zebedee
+4.6 = tss
+4.7 = ezeminer
+4.9 = Kexkey
+5.0 = Valkir
+5.2 = blindminer
+5.4 = flikflak
+5.5 = tennozer
+6.0 = Lituation
+6.1 = kama
+6.5 = ingiltere
+6.6 = fr4nkthetank
+7.0 = mavericklm
+8.4 = wpt1wpt1
+9.1 = VirosaGITS
+9.3 = adaseb
+20.0 = Lauda  

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+3.38%)
Bitcoin Difficulty:   113,354,299,801
Estimated Next Difficulty:   117,185,842,263 (+3.38%)
Adjust time:   After 835 Blocks, About 5.8 days ------   19 blocks left   we stop pix at 816
Hashrate(?):   830,759,367 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   8:30 (1.8 minutes ago)



well right now we are most likely at a negative number  of course we all know  we could rip 5 days in a row at 167  and end up close to +6 or + 7%.

So to those that waited till now to pick good luck.

[d57heinz]

+4.1 = d57heinz 

[tss]

+4.6 = tss

[skuser]

0.0 = skuser

[RichBC]

OK about an Hour to go, so can't leave it much longer. Run rate has been stable around -1% but is picking up a little and is now at about -0.6%. Do not think we will be negative, so the question is how much hash is going to be added? The markets took a bit of a tumble but are recovering nicely, so that is likely to push things up a bit.

My feeling however is still for a relatively restrained period, something between +1% & +3%.


+2.3 = RichBC


Probably wishful thinking, but Hey Ho....


Rich

[lanfeusst]

+3.4 = lanfeusst

[philipma1957]

on more block left to go 

Bitcoin Difficulty:   113,354,299,801
Estimated Next Difficulty:   117,393,026,881 (+3.56%)
Adjust time:   After 817 Blocks, About 5.7 days
Hashrate(?):   822,717,729 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.9 minutes
Updated:   11:25 (55.0 seconds ago)

[Lituation]

Price is declining, that's not good for mining. We might see lower difficulty increase. +3.55 now, I hope we won't see less than that.

[philipma1957]

Closed!

-3.5 = Quickseller
-3.0 = pusttiu
-0.2 = edonkey

 0.0 = skuser

+1.1= indiemax
+1.7 = bileq
+2.3 = RichBC
+2.4 = vortexz
+2.6 = Amph
+2.7 = philipma1957
+2.8 = radiumsoup
+3.1 = tertius993
+3.2 = tlhIlwI
+3.4 = lanfeusst
+3.5 = Ankara
+3.6 = Mikestang
+3.7 = -droid-
+3.8 = Notlist3d
+4.0 = wlefever
+4.1 = d57heinz
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = alh
+4.4 = ACAB
+4.5  = Zebedee
+4.6 = tss
+4.7 = ezeminer
+4.9 = Kexkey     +4.9 = ailikun  my error so both can keep this pick  and both would get .1
+5.0 = Valkir
+5.2 = blindminer
+5.4 = flikflak
+5.5 = tennozer
+6.0 = Lituation
+6.1 = kama
+6.5 = ingiltere
+6.6 = fr4nkthetank
+7.0 = mavericklm
+8.4 = wpt1wpt1
+9.1 = VirosaGITS
+9.3 = adaseb
+20.0 = Lauda  

final picks are above

[ailikun]

Hey, Phil.
You somehow, missed me.
Just noticed.

[lanfeusst]

Hey, Phil.
You somehow, missed me.
Just noticed.

Yeah, you missed me too I guess

+3.4 = lanfeusst

[d57heinz]

Looks like this maybe was bitmain like i thought all along.. No reason for bitfury to test their equip on antpool and f2pool.  Im sure this crazy spike is indeed bitmain setting up the 16 nm farms..

Well now the reason i didn't buy s7 comes much more apparent. I knew someone would leak the info eventually lol.. Seems dogie let the cat out of the bag..  Bitmain did in fact sell us their obsolete hw as they swapped out for 16 nm.. I didn't think for one second that Bitmain would allow another manufacturer to get one up on them.  Ridiculous that as miners this is the game we must keep playing to stay involved..

I'm sure we all can agree Bitmain will drop their prices before the bitfury gear comes out.

I would take a guess that Bitfury's chip will probably compete against a new chip from Bitmain, I mean we're already 6 months into this generation and they don't usually last that long.

6 Months of S7's already?
But I basically agree, they for sure are having something in the pipeline. This ASIC business keeps being interesting!

Maybe you will roi batches 5 and on maybe not now  sad that bitmain is still up to their old tricks.. The did this with all the previous generations.  You'd think one would get wise after a while!  Notice how he conveniently says they aren't meant to last over 6 months .. Now what was roi on these machines again?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1291890.200

Best Regards
d57heinz

[philipma1957]

Closed!

-3.5 = Quickseller
-3.0 = pusttiu
-0.2 = edonkey

 0.0 = skuser

+1.1= indiemax
+1.7 = bileq
+2.3 = RichBC
+2.4 = vortexz
+2.6 = Amph
+2.7 = philipma1957
+2.8 = radiumsoup
+3.1 = tertius993
+3.2 = tlhIlwI
+3.4 = lanfeusst
+3.5 = Ankara
+3.6 = Mikestang
+3.7 = -droid-
+3.8 = Notlist3d
+4.0 = wlefever
+4.1 = d57heinz
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = alh
+4.4 = ACAB
+4.5  = Zebedee
+4.6 = tss
+4.7 = ezeminer
+4.9 = Kexkey     +4.9 = ailikun  my error so both can keep this pick  and both would get .1
+5.0 = Valkir
+5.2 = blindminer
+5.4 = flikflak
+5.5 = tennozer
+6.0 = Lituation
+6.1 = kama
+6.5 = ingiltere
+6.6 = fr4nkthetank
+7.0 = mavericklm
+8.4 = wpt1wpt1
+9.1 = VirosaGITS
+9.3 = adaseb
+20.0 = Lauda  

final picks are above

 I missed two entries  they are now in

oh and today we are on our way to a 160-170 block day.

clearly shows that the big boys can power up 100ph whenever they want to.