Dec 31 to Jan 12 Diff thread picks closed.

[RichBC]

So yes it looks like we will do between +9% - +10% but a worrying thing is that the current run rate is more like +20%, so even after the adjustment we will be running at +10% going into the next period...

It's amazing the amount of extra hash people are putting up given the size of the network now. Also it is far from certain that we have seen much of the new miners from Spondoolies or Bitfury? Let's hope the exchange rate can keep pace?


Rich

[1714798118]

1714798118

[tss]

less than 13 hours left.  so close yet so far.

is the prize awarded to closest pick this round or will it carry over if no one matches?

[adaseb]

less than 13 hours left.  so close yet so far.

is the prize awarded to closest pick this round or will it carry over if no one matches?

No its a carry over if it doesn't land at the exact figure.

[notlist3d]

I'm just happy it appears we will be under 10 this week:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    103,880,340,815
Estimated Next Difficulty:    112,938,422,791 (+8.72%)
Adjust time:    After 79 Blocks, About 11.4 hours
Hashrate(?):    900,227,328 GH/s

I hope next change is even smaller and btc price goes up. It seems pretty steady in mid 440's on value this week.

[Biodom]

So yes it looks like we will do between +9% - +10% but a worrying thing is that the current run rate is more like +20%, so even after the adjustment we will be running at +10% going into the next period...

It's amazing the amount of extra hash people are putting up given the size of the network now. Also it is far from certain that we have seen much of the new miners from Spondoolies or Bitfury? Let's hope the exchange rate can keep pace?


Rich

i am just disgusted by this >=10% continuous rise.
For kicks-SPT was projecting 4% per period rise in 2016. I wish!

[philipma1957]

it is
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   103,880,340,815
Estimated Next Difficulty:   112,873,991,724     >>>>>>> (+8.66%)
Adjust time:   After 69 Blocks, About 10.0 hours
Hashrate(?):   890,625,369 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.7 minutes
3 blocks: 26.1 minutes
6 blocks: 52.3 minutes
Updated:   15:50 (1.9 minutes ago)




So maybe 8% to 10%  is a safer guess as to the range



+8.0%   = dukeneptun
+8.1%   = edonkey
+8.2%   = tennozer
+8.3%   = Notlist3d
+8.4%   = needmoney
+8.5%   = vapourminer
+8.6%   = page14

+8.9%   =  blindminer
+9.0%   = gangnam2016
+9.1%   = wlefever
+9.2%  =  tss

+9.5%   =  gkv9

+9.7%   =  fr4nkthetank


there are gaps  here  so a rollover can happen,  but if we stopped right now  page14 would win.

[mavericklm]

added all the diff changes and i got 98.63
÷27 number of jumps(negative & positive)
results in 3.65% per period in 2015

after the halving we might see some serious negative changes.... in 2016

Estimated Next Difficulty:    113,250,628,652 (+9.02%)
Adjust time:    After 59 Blocks, About 8.6 hours
Hashrate(?):    897,410,660 GH/s

at least is not double digit!!!
maybe next few diffs will be ~5%

[Mikestang]

added all the diff changes and i got 98.63

You can't just sum them all, they compound each other so you would need to analyze them sort of like compounding interest.

[d57heinz]

  now we get the dump.. so smaller diff but is now added with a 5 % drop in price.   Such easy manipulation..   I really dont understand why they like to do that.. that only puts off more investors.. Wouldnt they make more by holding and letting it rise.  Or are these attempts to scare the market into dumping aswell in order to rebuy your original amount of coins but at a much lower price.. I say dont sell if you dont have to .. Ive Quit feeding into the traders   just a thought anyway.. hate to see the price drop now with such large increases in diff.. Will start to squeeze out my s3 finally.. Although i do still run s2 and keep the coin in hopes price doubles  or at least rises enough after halving to make it worth running now.. If it doesnt work out this time its only 4 ths  so not like its a huge amount of invest.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/coinbase/btcusd

[philipma1957]

added all the diff changes and i got 98.63

You can't just sum them all, they compound each other so you would need to analyze them sort of like compounding interest.

rate for 366 days  with 27 jumps

Dec 30 2014 = 40,640,955,017
Dec 31 2015 =   103,880,340,815


so 103,880,340,815 /40,640,955,017 = 2.5560



  1.031 to the 27th power =  2.280    so 3.1% is too low

1.033 to the 27th power = 2.4027   so 3.3% is too low

 1.035 to the 27th power = 2.62    so 3.5% is too high


 try 1.0344 to the 27th power = 2.577   so 3.44%  is too high

 try 1.0342 to the 27th power = 2.564   so 3.42% is very close

[adaseb]

Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796   18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900   8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643   10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s


Lets see if we can close below the 8.77% diff increase which was made on Dec 6th.

[philipma1957]

Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796   18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900   8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643   10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s


Lets see if we can close below the 8.77% diff increase which was made on Dec 6th.

5 blocks left

Bitcoin Difficulty:   103,880,340,815
Estimated Next Difficulty:   113,281,706,193 (+9.05%)
Adjust time:   After 5 Blocks, About 43.6 minutes
Hashrate(?):   890,710,037 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.7 minutes
3 blocks: 26.1 minutes
6 blocks: 52.3 minutes
Updated:   0:35 (5.3 minutes ago

the winner should be from the list below, good luck guys.

+8.6%   = page14

+8.9%   =  blindminer
+9.0%   = gangnam2016
+9.1%   = wlefever
+9.2%  =  tss

+9.5%   =  gkv9




393120  has been made and we have a winner.



Just waiting for bitcoinwisdom to post



https://bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   393120
Total BTC   15.078M
 
Difficulty   113354299801
Estimated   113481073074 in 2016 blks
 
Network total   821827.785 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.63 / 543 s


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate


Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s   the winner is   wlefever    please pm your btc addy I will send coins




Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796   18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900   8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643   10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450   2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480   0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039   2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234   4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328   2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409   0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846   2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917   12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014   10,455,720,138   18.10%   74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014   8,853,416,309   10.66%   63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014   8,000,872,136   14.64%   57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014   6,978,842,650   14.04%   49,956,502 GH/s
© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com

[wlefever]

Does this make me a winner finally??

Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s

+9.1%   = wlefever

[philipma1957]

Does this make me a winner finally??

Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s

+9.1%   = wlefever

yes so I need a btc addy to send you the .1 btc

[fr4nkthetank]

wow such diff increase, congrats to the winner.  i thought my 9.7% was wayyyy high...turns out it was pretty close.  I'm guessing we are due for 4-5 more 10% diff increases sigh

[keystroke]

Congrats to the winner! Exahash in no time... nuts.

[philipma1957]

Congrats to the winner! Exahash in no time... nuts.

yeah this jump or the next  we will go over 1000ph

[wlefever]

Congrats to the winner! Exahash in no time... nuts.

yeah this jump or the next  we will go over 1000ph

Thanks for running this! My btc address for this is: 1F4XmZCHELjfTBbRCx3NR7prXeV1TrK6LD

[philipma1957]

Congrats to the winner! Exahash in no time... nuts.

yeah this jump or the next  we will go over 1000ph

Thanks for running this! My btc address for this is: 1F4XmZCHELjfTBbRCx3NR7prXeV1TrK6LD

sent to you

https://blockchain.info/tx/91c24dbb458d5cb368473ac1c0f200bd12954b42dcaa0a796df89c5a212453e8

locking thread

new thread

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1326210.0

[wlefever]

Congrats to the winner! Exahash in no time... nuts.

yeah this jump or the next  we will go over 1000ph

Thanks for running this! My btc address for this is: 1F4XmZCHELjfTBbRCx3NR7prXeV1TrK6LD

sent to you

https://blockchain.info/tx/91c24dbb458d5cb368473ac1c0f200bd12954b42dcaa0a796df89c5a212453e8

Received!  Thanks again and good luck on the next adjustment to everyone.  I really hope we start seeing smaller increases but that Exahash is here and hard to swallow.