Public service announcement for noobs: Why the drop really happened

[r0ach]

The drop was not caused by Mike Hearn.  Hearn made the drop worse and accelerated it, but it was not caused by him.  His post could be summarized as him claiming Bitcoin has failed if the blocks become full, but blocks were always destined to become full and reach a fee market even if you raised them to 32MB.  His post made zero logical sense, to the point where it was basically propaganda and someone at R3 probably paid him to make it.

Now, onto why the drop actually occurred.  The drop occurred because....drumroll....TA.  Look at my chart and post before I even heard about the Mike Hearn deal.

I don't see it going to $350 under any circumstance.  If the rally is over, which it might be for a while according to macro wedge breaking trend, then it would find strong support around $410 still.  If there's a dump, that's where it will go.  If a second dump occurred days/a week later after that, it would find big resistance again at 390's.  Worst case scenario would be $360, but would probably require a long time to get there, and by the time it did, would be time to go up again for getting closer to halving.

And here's me calling when to buy before the rally:

In the past four years, there's probably never been a safer time to hold Bitcoin than now.

Instead of being a slow de-leveraging from breaking trend spread out over days, it happened all at once due to the Mike Hearn thing, plus Cryptsy scare on top of that.  Cryptsy is honestly probably a non-event though and not even really worth discussing.  Keep in mind my post was only factoring in the de-leveraging of trend breaking.  Now we also have a Bitcoin Classic hardfork that seems 90% likely to occur IMO.  I will likely stay on the sidelines until that is resolved because even a non-contested hard fork will usually temporarily drop price, but there's a few developers and users protesting it.  The 2MB fork will probably have 80%+ hash rate + exchange support and win, so it's not really that big of a deal for Bitcoin's future, but more price drop is likely until it's over.

Lightning Network has to raise the block size anyway in the future, so I see the current situation as just "Bitcoin Core" trying to create a dictatorship over the coin and centralize it by whoever has access to a certain Github repo.  There's no way in hell you can call Bitcoin decentralized if you claim only four or so people are allowed to create changes to be put up for vote by miners.  They claim their ideology is decentralization, but their actions in the real world are the opposite of that.  Even if you assumed they're right and really are "benevolent" dictators and Gavin is an evil CIA spy, their ideology is inconsistent with how Bitcoin is supposed to actually function.  If they can't accept that fact, they probably need to go.  

If you attempt to censor or block issues from being put up to vote by miners, it just creates an even bigger missile crisis down the road because ideological differences do not go away, they just keep coming back over and over, so it's futile to attempt to stop.  People have already attempted numerous changes to be put up to vote by miners in the past.  Most have failed.  However, it's blatantly obvious changes will pass in the future that certain devs don't agree with.  If this wasn't the reality of the future of the coin, it wouldn't be decentralized in the first place.

[dropt]

LOL @ TA being the primary motivator for the drop.

Yeah, a near arbitrary line was crossed so everyone just said fuck it and threw the towel in causing rates to drop $75.

IMO the stars aligned and some big fish took an opportunity to shake the market.

[r0ach]

LOL @ TA being the primary motivator for the drop.

Yeah, a near arbitrary line was crossed so everyone just said fuck it and threw the towel in causing rates to drop $75.

IMO the stars aligned and some big fish took an opportunity to shake the market.

It was an overleveraged market whose uptrend had obviously stalled, and Mike Hearn helped accelerate the de-leveraging.  I would be buying the dip, but the Bitcoin Classic fork will drop it again until it's over.  If you want to minimize risk, the only logical move is to wait for that to be priced in, unless you think world financial markets are going to collapse tomorrow.

Here is the exact point that indicated complete end of rally with drop immiment:

[TSE]

Here is the exact point that indicated complete end of rally with drop immiment:

Cud u say what u saw it at this point (the technical term). Just interested for the future
Nice post anyway

[fisheater22]

TA is for ignorant, unscientific children. Too lazy to learn Haruspex? Can't read cat entrails, like real market scientists do, because too complicated? Just scribble some lines on a chart, no prob!

[dropt]

It was an overleveraged market whose uptrend had obviously stalled, and Mike Hearn helped accelerate the de-leveraging.  

BFX longs are down, what, 1MM? 1.5MM?  I'd hardly call that de-leveraging.

Traders took advantage of the Hearn business.  They just waited until dumb money heard the news, panic sold, and are (likely) slowly re-accumulating.

I agree that until the Classic fork is done it's shaky ground, but I don't think that when it's over we're suddenly going to go right back up.

[r0ach]

I use the term "overleveraged" loosely, meaning people were risking more money than they can afford to on the way up just in case it was "the big one", which will likely happen again later this year heh.

[unent]

I am predicting a drop to 350 ish fairly soon... then moon within the next 6 months.

I don't see it going to $350 under any circumstance.

For the record, do you see it going below $350 now?

Do you think there's the slightest possibility of that with the combination of Bitcoin Classic hardfork, Cryptsy, and Mike Hearn? I don't believe TA works with all the manipulation that goes on in a market as thin as Bitcoin's. Manipulation and the power of events to affect the market make TA useless.

[mOgliE]

LOL @ TA being the primary motivator for the drop.

Yeah, a near arbitrary line was crossed so everyone just said fuck it and threw the towel in causing rates to drop $75.

IMO the stars aligned and some big fish took an opportunity to shake the market.

I agree totally, it's like "Shazam, now IS THE TIME"

But it's an important aspect of bitcoin. The volatility is strong with this currency. 

No need of a true reason, just a panic sell.

[r0ach]

I don't see it going to $350 under any circumstance.

For the record, do you see it going below $350 now?

Do you think there's the slightest possibility of that with the combination of Bitcoin Classic hardfork, Cryptsy, and Mike Hearn? I don't believe TA works with all the manipulation that goes on in a market as thin as Bitcoin's. Manipulation and the power of events to affect the market make TA useless.

The quote I made about 360 being the bottom was speaking solely about the uptrend running out of fuel and having a correction from too many people being overleveraged with no more upside potential to look forware to in the short term.  That quote wasn't taking anything about the classic hard fork occurring into account because nobody knows when it will happen yet.  The fork will likely temporarily dump Bitcoin to lower than cost of production, then raise much higher after it's all over with.  Since it seems to be coming relatively soon, I just don't see a reason to stay in the market until it's priced in unless you think the world economic system will collapse before it happens.

I can't imagine the hard fork not bringing coin price temporarily to something like $320, and that's the good-case scenario where all exchanges switch to the 2MB fork.  If something like only half of exchanges switch, there will be a bloodbath.  That's why they should probably try and get all exchanges intentions in writing before proceeding.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I don't see it going to $350 under any circumstance.

For the record, do you see it going below $350 now?

Do you think there's the slightest possibility of that with the combination of Bitcoin Classic hardfork, Cryptsy, and Mike Hearn? I don't believe TA works with all the manipulation that goes on in a market as thin as Bitcoin's. Manipulation and the power of events to affect the market make TA useless.

The quote I made about 360 being the bottom was speaking solely about the uptrend running out of fuel and having a correction from too many people being overleveraged with no more upside potential to look forware to in the short term.  That quote wasn't taking anything about the classic hard fork occurring into account because nobody knows when it will happen yet.  The fork will likely temporarily dump Bitcoin to lower than cost of production, then raise much higher after it's all over with.  Since it seems to be coming relatively soon, I just don't see a reason to stay in the market until it's priced in unless you think the world economic system will collapse before it happens.

I can't imagine the hard fork not bringing coin price temporarily to something like $320, and that's the good-case scenario where all exchanges switch to the 2MB fork.  If something like only half of exchanges switch, there will be a bloodbath.  That's why they should probably try and get all exchanges intentions in writing before proceeding.

Double digits it is! Gotcha
Seeing that cost of production is in the middle $100's and they are making a killing at current prices, sounds quite plausible. I'm glad you brought this up

[Tzupy]

Wow... OP, considering that you are a permabull, I think it's the first time I agree with you, the dump was due to TA, but went deeper because of bad news.

[MatTheCat]

Wow... OP, considering that you are a permabull, I think it's the first time I agree with you, the dump was due to TA, but went deeper because of bad news.

OP has no credibility. Just last week, he started a thread poking fun at me for my bearish outlook. MatTheCat - Ultimate Reverse Indicator thread....or something along those lines.......and he can't do TA either.....TA, on Bitcoinwisdom, really?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1319356.msg13484814#msg13484814

LOL @ TA being the primary motivator for the drop.

Yeah, a near arbitrary line was crossed so everyone just said fuck it and threw the towel in causing rates to drop $75.

IMO the stars aligned and some big fish took an opportunity to shake the market.

This^^

Bitcoin is too cornered a market for media stories such as Hearn or Cryptsy to matter a flying fuck in themselves. What these 'stories' can do however, is provide fertile grounds for the Market Makers to do their thang.....

....Last week, Bitcoin was rocketing thanks to China Stock market crash and Yuan devaluation. Last I checked, both these issues were still on the same course as last week, except looking even more foreboding.....so where is all the Chinese Capital flooding into Bitcoin?

Bitcoin has been co-opted by a few Chinese whales. They are running this market as thier own personal cash cow, and will ramp, dump, ramp, dump, and then ramp some more, filling their fucking boots every swing up n down of the way, whilst the majority of Bitcoin traders/investors are scrambling around reddit, forums, news site, trying to pin some half baked narrative on the whole shenanigans.

Bitcoin market is 100% bullshit. All of it. But maybe if ya play yer cards right, you can put a few shillings in yer pocket that you otherwise wouldn't have, but the majority will lose out by design, and er, don't get too greedy, euphoric, or complacent. To all those thinking new ATHs are inevitable. Think again. That aint how these fuckers are going to make their money. Mike Hearn describes quite well I think, how those who now control Bitcoin, don't really want it to get that big.

Bitcoins main purpose, has become to enrich it's Chinese masters, whilst providing a service as a niche means of Capital Flight out of that country, once again, enriching it's Chinese masters.

[r0ach]

OP has no credibility. Just last week, he started a thread poking fun at me for my bearish outlook. MatTheCat - Ultimate Reverse Indicator thread

Lol.  I'm not sure if anyone thought the MatTheCat reverse indicator thread would be sound logic since the thread relies on doing the opposite of whatever you do, and you should technically be right around 50% of the time with a 10% or so margin of error at least?  There are people who make money on BTC by just buying off Coinbase without even looking at a chart, so I would assume you can outperform that somehow.

[Afrikoin]

The drop was not caused by Mike Hearn.  Hearn made the drop worse and accelerated it, but it was not caused by him.  His post could be summarized as him claiming Bitcoin has failed if the blocks become full, but blocks were always destined to become full and reach a fee market even if you raised them to 32MB.  His post made zero logical sense, to the point where it was basically propaganda and someone at R3 probably paid him to make it.

Now, onto why the drop actually occurred.  The drop occurred because....drumroll....TA.  Look at my chart and post before I even heard about the Mike Hearn deal.

Lol at your chart and forecast.

There are lots of traders who called this move waaaay before 2 weeks ago. eg Adams Bit's Movement post #24

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=796276.20

[r0ach]

Double digits it is! Gotcha
Seeing that cost of production is in the middle $100's and they are making a killing at current prices, sounds quite plausible. I'm glad you brought this up

Bullshit post.  I'll calculate cost of production later, but when I did it for SP30s like a year ago, with electricity + hardware cost combined, I seem to recall it being in the 200's way back then, and there's more hash on network now without much rollout of more efficient miners yet.

Lol at your chart and forecast.

There are lots of traders who called this move waaaay before 2 weeks ago. eg Adams Bit's Movement post #24

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=796276.20

Wrong.  He's been calling $330 coins ever since it started to rise and everyone knows it, and it went all the way to $460 again, so he was way the hell off.

He was calling for $330 coins in the drop on the white circled area of the chart below and instead of dropping, it only went to 400 then went even higher than before the drop:

[MatTheCat]

Lol at your chart and forecast.

There are lots of traders who called this move waaaay before 2 weeks ago. eg Adams Bit's Movement post #24

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=796276.20

Any serious trader that understands markets has been pretty much calling a correction.....down to about where we are/were, at the very least. Only n00bs were advising to load up with BTC at $450, and expecting next stop, da moon. Now we got down to $350, jury is out as to what Bitcoin does next. But perhaps the answer to that question lies in the answer to this question? Q) What market course suits the Chinese Whales the best, and makes them most money?

[r0ach]

Any serious trader that understands markets has been pretty much calling a correction.....down to about where we are/were, at the very least.

VCs were going to attempt to prop it up around the $400 level IMO, and they might have succeeded, but the Hearn garbage + minor Cryptsy stuff + possibility of classic fork tipped the scales of the dump way harder than normal.

[spiderbrain]

I see the current situation as just "Bitcoin Core" trying to create a dictatorship over the coin and centralize it by whoever has access to a certain Github repo.  There's no way in hell you can call Bitcoin decentralized if you claim only four or so people are allowed to create changes to be put up for vote by miners.  They claim their ideology is decentralization, but their actions in the real world are the opposite of that.  Even if you assumed they're right and really are "benevolent" dictators and Gavin is an evil CIA spy, their ideology is inconsistent with how Bitcoin is supposed to actually function.  If they can't accept that fact, they probably need to go.

True dat.

[btcxyzzz]

I don't agree with OP. First, Mike Hearn's blog post is completely true no matter how bad it sounds for Bitcoin community, and it's even still true if banksters paid him. Secondly, your triangle is connected to the right, and what then? TA is nonsense. Only functions as a self-fulfilling prophecy on big markets.