Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[xyzzy099]

its all about the probability of an orphan block. if we could minimize that probability it would be a big step in the right direction. maybe we should diminish the advantage of 0 tx blocks by making all blocks equally large no matter how much real TXs are in there. so every block would have the same disadvantage of a full block no matter if those are TXs or just some clutter to fill up the 1MB or 2MB

The reason there are one transaction blocks is that the miners don't know which transactions which are in the mempool are valid. The minute you add a minimum requirement, miners will just fill it with dummy transactions they know to be valid but are not in the mempool. You gain nothing but waste space.

Not sure what you mean here...  The mempool is, by definition, the set of transactions a node has received and validated, but have not yet been included in a block, right?

Maybe I am missing some context or something?

[Fatman3001]

Maybe his account was bought

This is a suitable explanation.

Have you ever bothered to click the link in his signature?

That's not an endorsement signature. He is: Vegas Luna. Though, in this place he is close to sane.

(not really though, but he has guns)

[luigi1111]

its all about the probability of an orphan block. if we could minimize that probability it would be a big step in the right direction. maybe we should diminish the advantage of 0 tx blocks by making all blocks equally large no matter how much real TXs are in there. so every block would have the same disadvantage of a full block no matter if those are TXs or just some clutter to fill up the 1MB or 2MB

The reason there are one transaction blocks is that the miners don't know which transactions which are in the mempool are valid. The minute you add a minimum requirement, miners will just fill it with dummy transactions they know to be valid but are not in the mempool. You gain nothing but waste space.

Not sure what you mean here...  The mempool is, by definition, the set of transactions a node has received and validated, but have not yet been included in a block, right?

Maybe I am missing some context or something?

I think he means "valid to include in the next block", because they don't (yet) know which ones were included in the header they are building on.

[xyzzy099]

its all about the probability of an orphan block. if we could minimize that probability it would be a big step in the right direction. maybe we should diminish the advantage of 0 tx blocks by making all blocks equally large no matter how much real TXs are in there. so every block would have the same disadvantage of a full block no matter if those are TXs or just some clutter to fill up the 1MB or 2MB

The reason there are one transaction blocks is that the miners don't know which transactions which are in the mempool are valid. The minute you add a minimum requirement, miners will just fill it with dummy transactions they know to be valid but are not in the mempool. You gain nothing but waste space.

Not sure what you mean here...  The mempool is, by definition, the set of transactions a node has received and validated, but have not yet been included in a block, right?

Maybe I am missing some context or something?

I think he means "valid to include in the next block", because they don't (yet) know which ones were included in the header they are building on.

Ah, I see where the confusion is.  To my mind, a "miner" is the entity building the block, not just someone hashing a header provided by an actual miner.

But those 'miners' have no control over what transactions are included in the block anyway...

[Patel]

I am predicting a drop to 350 ish fairly soon... then moon within the next 6 months.

[Richy_T]

Not sure what you mean here...  The mempool is, by definition, the set of transactions a node has received and validated, but have not yet been included in a block, right?

Maybe I am missing some context or something?

Correct. But between when a block has been mined and when it has been transferred and processed, other miners do not know which transactions in their mempool were included in that block and thus do not know which transactions are safe to start mining on. So they mine empty while they're waiting because you don't want that hashpower sitting idle and the block reward is pretty tempting on its own.

If you look at the timings, most empty blocks come very quickly after the previous blocks for this reason.

[xyzzy099]

Not sure what you mean here...  The mempool is, by definition, the set of transactions a node has received and validated, but have not yet been included in a block, right?

Maybe I am missing some context or something?

Correct. But between when a block has been mined and when it has been transferred and processed, other miners do not know which transactions in their mempool were included in that block and thus do not know which transactions are safe to start mining on. So they mine empty while they're waiting.

If you look at the timings, most empty blocks come very quickly after the previous blocks for this reason.

Yeah, ok, I see what your are trying to say now.

[noobtrader]

I am predicting a drop to 350 ish fairly soon... then moon within the next 6 months.

cant we reach the moon without visiting below 3xx

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[600watt]

I am predicting a drop to 350 ish fairly soon... then moon within the next 6 months.

cant we reach the moon without visiting below 3xx

not if you ask guys that have sold at 360....   

[soullyG]

Maybe his account was bought

This is a suitable explanation.

Have you ever bothered to click the link in his signature?

That's not an endorsement signature. He is: Vegas Luna. Though, in this place he is close to sane.

(not really though, but he has guns)

Holy shit what the hell did I just read

This is an investigation into the Atlantean Mermaids war with the Andromeda Martians who invaded our solar system during its protostar stage with a wandering brown dwarf and the catastrophe that happened. The book presents 21 Polestar Science Theories that range from astronomy, astrophysics, particle physics, quantum physics, string theory, M-brane theory, and more. In-depth research of the solar system and a closer look at Mars and the gas giants. The book reveals the destiny or fate of the human race in the future intergalactic war with the Andromeda.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[r0ach]

I am predicting a drop to 350 ish fairly soon... then moon within the next 6 months.

I don't see it going to $350 under any circumstance.  If the rally is over, which it might be for a while according to macro wedge breaking trend, then it would find strong support around $410 still.  If there's a dump, that's where it will go.  If a second dump occurred days/a week later after that, it would find big resistance again at 390's.  Worst case scenario would be $360, but would probably require a long time to get there, and by the time it did, would be time to go up again for getting closer to halving.


  

[dropt]

Maybe his account was bought

This is a suitable explanation.

Have you ever bothered to click the link in his signature?

That's not an endorsement signature. He is: Vegas Luna. Though, in this place he is close to sane.

(not really though, but he has guns)

I haven't. I didn't know he had a signature as I turned them off about the time sig campaigns started.

Edit: Now I kind of want to buy his book.

[tomothy]

So, essentially sideways between ~415-~460 for the next one to two  months?
Assuming Gemini launches alts on their exchange, which might be Soon(TM) there could be some btc/alt/pumpage.
Then blocksize will magically reach consensus and increase and we'll be just about time for the halving and start of higher highs?

With regards to 2mb limit... I wanted to throw my $0.02 for bitcoin core/classic/unlimited.
So it's recognized, essentially, that behind the great firewall of china, lies ~+50% BTC hashpower y network strength.
China has difficulty getting data out due to that firewall delaying everything.
So... the faster and sooner you can bump above 1mb, this could help places maybe outside china and mitigate/limit
 the impact of china btc mining? It seems that, yes, need an increase at some point for big bank applications but also china mining power clearly has to be of concern to big banks and usg.
Maybe? or No higher highs until we drop below 400 again?

[JayJuanGee]

I am predicting a drop to 350 ish fairly soon... then moon within the next 6 months.

I don't see it going to $350 under any circumstance.  If the rally is over, which it might be for a while according to macro wedge breaking trend, then it would find strong support around $410 still.  If there's a dump, that's where it will go.  If a second dump occurred days/a week later after that, it would find big resistance again at 390's.  Worst case scenario would be $360, but would probably require a long time to get there, and by the time it did, would be time to go up again for getting closer to halving.

[https://i.imgur.com/h0hnscR.png[/img]
  

[https://i.imgur.com/zAQaVIX.png[/img]

I think that is a very decent assessment, rOach, regarding the current status of Bitcoin's price dynamics.

Bitcoin's general price direction remains upwards (and possibly slightly plateauing), and we are going to need to witness a considerable amount of concerted dumping in order to attempt to achieve any kinds of lower price points as you hit upon ($410, $390 and $360, each of those lower price points successfully more difficult to achieve in the current trend), and bears may not be willing to push for such lower prices on their own, and they have to somehow convince others to go along with them... which the others will notice that the price remains generally upward... if not flat for a while in this $425 to $435 price range with ongoing upward price pressures.

[billyjoeallen]

If First Mover advantage is lost, whether it takes years or months, it will be gone forever.  Yeah, Bitcoin will still be around. Hell, MySpace is still around, but The escape route from Bankster tyranny will have been blocked.

Goldman sachs and govcoin can never replicate some of bitcoins best attributes:soverign, immutable, no KYC. and extremely unlikely to replicate other features that make bitcoin so great : limited , disinflationary.

Once you know this , you will have no fear of these private blockchains.

Who says it has to even be private? All they have to do is clone bitcoin and premine the shit out of it, market it as the drug and terrorism-free version (loss of anonymity is a feature, not a bug), and prop up the price for a few months.  If they hire K Street lobbyists to encourage USG to treat their coin a little more charitably and our coin with a little more hostility, it's off to the races.

We'll still be squabbling over SegWit and 4MB when their nodes are the size of Google data centers processing millions of transactions an hour. They'll be like a hot IPO and we'll be de-listed and relegated to the penny stock pink sheets. And we'll deserve it.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[flagpara]

I am predicting a drop to 350 ish fairly soon... then moon within the next 6 months.

I don't see it going to $350 under any circumstance.  If the rally is over, which it might be for a while according to macro wedge breaking trend, then it would find strong support around $410 still.  If there's a dump, that's where it will go.  If a second dump occurred days/a week later after that, it would find big resistance again at 390's.  Worst case scenario would be $360, but would probably require a long time to get there, and by the time it did, would be time to go up again for getting closer to halving.

[https://i.imgur.com/h0hnscR.png[/img]
  

[https://i.imgur.com/zAQaVIX.png[/img]

I think that is a very decent assessment, rOach, regarding the current status of Bitcoin's price dynamics.

Bitcoin's general price direction remains upwards (and possibly slightly plateauing), and we are going to need to witness a considerable amount of concerted dumping in order to attempt to achieve any kinds of lower price points as you hit upon ($410, $390 and $360, each of those lower price points successfully more difficult to achieve in the current trend), and bears may not be willing to push for such lower prices on their own, and they have to somehow convince others to go along with them... which the others will notice that the price remains generally upward... if not flat for a while in this $425 to $435 price range with ongoing upward price pressures.

350 seems really hard to reach indeed. And I'd bet that if price ever reached 350$ in those conditions it would crash even further because most people would loose trust in btc. But I don't see how it could drop so low, thousands of people are frustrated enough to have missed the opportunity to buy at 300, they will take any opportunity around 400 so it won't breack this floor.

I believe it's the first time we agree on something JayJuanGee