Long Term Speculation of Bitcoin - Sell $400 Buy $300 Sell $500

The picture is VERY clear where Bitcoin is headed, it had multiple failed highs in the recent weeks and broke thru the $400 support. No support in the way until $300.

See what happens at $400, if it breaks out of $400 then it might be wise to short at the trendline instead.

If it was that easy, then people would all become a millionaire in a very short time. I can't see the price go to $300 as the panic is over. People now realize that what they did was stupid and are now buying back. And if it happens to go down that far, then I'll day trade during that period.

Basically wait and see what happens when price approaches those areas. If it engulfs those areas then ignore this analysis but the thousands of Bitcoins traders around the world are looking at exactly that.

This can take up to 6 months to mature, that's a half-week chart. Need to be patient.

This is indeed the possible picture that could come true someday but I doubt it would be that much low ($300) as at maximum I think $350 is the basis of it's lowest possible value and by time this only grows and not the other way around and profits would only be for those who buy and sell large amount and not for normal people who do it in smaller scale.

I'm not being bearish on BTC, as a miner I want it to go up, I am just saying that in the short/medium term it will probably go down towards the $300 before going up towards the $500-$1,000,000.

Quote from: adaseb on January 19, 2016, 09:24:45 AM

I'm not being bearish on BTC, as a miner I want it to go up, I am just saying that in the short/medium term it will probably go down towards the $300 before going up towards the $500-$1,000,000.

The possible fork might drive the price back down. If it happens and gets messy it could go quite low. In February the next MtGox creditors meeting takes place, and there might finally be some news about what's going to happen to all the MtGox coins. If they get sold so the creditors can be paid back in fiat it could also rive the price down.

Quote from: 1Referee on January 19, 2016, 09:13:54 AM

Agree completely. Have no any kind of reason (at least now) that bitcoin go to that price (300 us dollar). The first weak signs of the last two days give hopes that the bad is gone and it "think" to begin again the stabilization. Personally not only have not sold no one satoshi but have bought continuously almost every day (when had money) during all this period to continue my plans of investments with it. Actually have few thousand of satoshi at my wallet but much more bitcoin invested on other places where are making their "mission": multiplication of themselves or converted in products which will give much more in the future (if my plans will be fulfilled; if not all, the most, for sure.)

Entering a partial short position right here, probably way too early.

Adding more to my short, average position is $415 right now. Alot of sellers in this $420 area, but might still head to the trendline.

Quote from: 1Referee on January 19, 2016, 09:13:54 AM

Top traders on the site that I subscribe to are all now short...they got in at $435 (OKCoin 3 Months Futurues), based on PoC, Fib retraces.

I will no doubt go short based on a double top, and then just before Bitcoin corrects, get Stop Called out of my position on one final FU move, b4 'they' take it down back to the slaghterhouse, with all the little piggies still on board, all oinking for $500 Bitcoin.

Quote from: adaseb on January 21, 2016, 05:29:59 AM

Adding more to my short, average position is $415 right now. Alot of sellers in this $420 area, but might still head to the trendline.

Question is, where did you place your Stop?

Probs right above $428?

Probs at $430, just like everyone else?

On the crash, I bought BTC at $366. Placed Stop at $354.95, safely below the $357 bottom........guess what happened going through the London Kill Zone?

LKZ coming up right now....

I think I will be hunting a Stop Triggering FU move for a Stop Entry.........Bitcoin on the margin exchanges will probs see a jump to $435.

I hope that bitcoin is not going down again, well I am just okay if the price is more than 500 before the halving.
Is a great speculation, but is just better if bitcoin just go up and up this year and not going down.

Oh well I am still try to collect more bitcoins before the halving happens.

I think that the price will stay somewhere around 420$ and rise after the halving.

The moment a chart goes public even if that is the most accurate chart on Earth, that's the moment in which it fails.
However, I see your chart differently. What you said is well over now: it should have been done after Hearn's article.

Better to observe than to predict.

IF the $428 high fails to break then I will add more shorts.

These rise and falls are irrelevant to me really. I'm just collecting more bitcoin until bitcoin will reach around $1000, that's when things will get interested for me.
Until then I will be holding whatever I have and try to earn more in the mean time.

Quote from: adaseb on January 21, 2016, 10:01:00 AM

IF the $428 high fails to break then I will add more shorts.

A better strategy might be, WHEN the $428 high breaks, add more shorts......take a look at the FU $352 low as a cue to how 'they' might drive BTC here.

I don't think we will be seeing 300 again any time soon, if ever.

The best thing to do is HODL until after the halving at least.

Quote from: MatTheCat on January 21, 2016, 10:11:30 AM

Quote from: adaseb on January 21, 2016, 10:01:00 AM

IF the $428 high fails to break then I will add more shorts.

A better strategy might be, WHEN the $428 high breaks, add more shorts......take a look at the FU $352 low as a cue to how 'they' might drive BTC here.

IF it breaks, I will be looking for weakness near the trendline. If the trendline breaks and if closes above those recent highs, I will look to get out.

Yes it will either go to $350 or $300, $300 is better support.

Quote from: DeathAngel on January 21, 2016, 10:21:01 AM

I don't think we will be seeing 300 again any time soon, if ever.

The best thing to do is HODL until after the halving at least.

I wish you were correct but the daily chart tells me $300 is more likely then $500 at the moment.

The give-away was the recent failed highs and lower lows.