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Author Topic: What Is The Chance Of Finding A Solo Block?  (Read 3076 times)
Beraturker
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January 20, 2016, 11:12:40 AM
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What Is The Chance Of Finding A Solo Block With 1Th/s?

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January 20, 2016, 11:18:58 AM
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Average time for a block with 1TH is every 5634days 23hr 0min 39sec
Which means your chance of finding a block is 1 in 5635 per day at the current difficulty.

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Beraturker
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January 20, 2016, 11:21:28 AM
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Average time for a block with 1TH is every 5634days 23hr 0min 39sec
Which means your chance of finding a block is 1 in 5635 per day at the current difficulty.

Thanks.. And how do you calculate that?
Do you have a link?

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January 20, 2016, 11:43:47 AM
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time = difficulty * 2**32 / hashrate
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty#How_soon_might_I_expect_to_generate_a_block.3F

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January 20, 2016, 04:41:20 PM
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Like ck-  said. However crazier things have happened.  You have people with 20 ths mine for 6 months and not find one and you have people with 1 s5 pop a block within an hour of turning on there miner.  The odds are definitely not in your favor of that happening though.

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January 21, 2016, 02:33:13 AM
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But don't forget in 15 years when you find a block BTC will be about $1.2mill so $30 mill is still a winning proposition. unless power goes to $100/kwh
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January 21, 2016, 03:03:08 AM
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But don't forget in 15 years when you find a block BTC will be about $1.2mill so $30 mill is still a winning proposition. unless power goes to $100/kwh

It would be amazing if those numbers come to be true.

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AliceWonderMiscreations
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January 21, 2016, 03:13:30 AM
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But don't forget in 15 years when you find a block BTC will be about $1.2mill so $30 mill is still a winning proposition. unless power goes to $100/kwh

It would be amazing if those numbers come to be true.

The only way they could come to be true is if the dollar is worth a lot less. In today's dollar, no way.

I hereby reserve the right to sometimes be wrong
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January 21, 2016, 03:40:53 AM
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Might have a better change to play the Lottery then mine solo with 1 TH.

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January 21, 2016, 04:06:37 AM
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But don't forget in 15 years when you find a block BTC will be about $1.2mill so $30 mill is still a winning proposition. unless power goes to $100/kwh

It would be amazing if those numbers come to be true.

The only way they could come to be true is if the dollar is worth a lot less. In today's dollar, no way.

Its all supply and demand.  It could be real possibility when you are are only getting 3 bitcoins per block find here in a few years.   Those numbers are probably inflated some but it could be.   We do  have a non physical fiat worth about $420 a coin right now.

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AliceWonderMiscreations
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January 21, 2016, 07:55:26 AM
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But don't forget in 15 years when you find a block BTC will be about $1.2mill so $30 mill is still a winning proposition. unless power goes to $100/kwh

It would be amazing if those numbers come to be true.

The only way they could come to be true is if the dollar is worth a lot less. In today's dollar, no way.

Its all supply and demand.  It could be real possibility when you are are only getting 3 bitcoins per block find here in a few years.   Those numbers are probably inflated some but it could be.   We do  have a non physical fiat worth about $420 a coin right now.

No. Bitcoin is introducing people to the concept of crypto-currency that is neither controlled nor backed by government. But by the time demand for crypto-currency in the mainstream reaches that kind of demand, there will be at least one (probably more than one) alt-coin helping to meet the demand. Kind of like AOL introduced the mainstream to the Internet but now is no longer a major player in providing Internet service.

Bitcoin is the place to be now, but there is no reason why alt-coins can't provide supply to meet the growing demand once the masses grasp the concept.

I hereby reserve the right to sometimes be wrong
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