Old coins on the move

[monsanto]

if you filter days destroyed for only those coins with a minimum age of one year, it looks like a lot of old coins moved recently:

https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

An exchange accessing a cold wallet or someone preparing to dump perhaps 

[NorrisK]

Cold storage movement are very likely. There were some posts last week of 300,000+ bitcoin transactions.

If those coins had been there for a while, they would easily reach those amounts of coin days.

[Amph]

i don't think that they are dumping, why dumping now when the value is recovering, and thus coins already seen the 1200 ath, i think they will wait untill that point is reached again before even thinking to dump their stash

[1Referee]

If these coins were really moved out of their old wallets to be dumped, then I would suspect the exchanges to let the price crash significantly before these coins post. Some exchanges have a hidden agenda and do insider trading. I think it's more likely that it is a large mining pool. Only they have that much coins. Or perhaps an exchange that is spreading their cold wallet coins. Other than that no one else has this many coins.

[justspare]

I doubt that they are selling their coins, they are probably just moving their coins from 1 account to another.

[coinzat]

I doubt that they are selling their coins, they are probably just moving their coins from 1 account to another.

I agree with you that no one is selling this big quantity in one time, because dumping them in one block is a big lose for the owner, If s/he wants to sell them s/he would sell them in small quantities in several days so s/he will not affect the price in a bad way

[gentlemand]

Who cares? Maybe they're not allowed to cold store in grandma's pussy any more, maybe they accidentally flashed private keys while jerking off on Skype at the local priest. No one's business but theirs. The only movement worth observation would be Satoshi's coins.

[MatTheCat]

i don't think that they are dumping, why dumping now when the value is recovering, and thus coins already seen the 1200 ath, i think they will wait untill that point is reached again before even thinking to dump their stash

Well then Amph the Optimistic Sheep...

Lets have a little look at the different spikes in BTC movement (anything over 15K), and what the market done around or after those times.....


Prior to 10th August...we had the Log average give 21K days destroyed........August 14th, Bitcoin flash crashes down to $162 on Finex.

Just after 24th August, a double spike, Bitcoin corrects from $230 down to $195 on Finex.

Around 10th September, a spike of 16K days destroyed...market remains 'flat' albeit trending down over the following few days.

Next big movement was on 2nd Nov, around 20K days destroyed...on 4th November, market tanks from $500 - $380

Then on the 9th Nov, another big movement of BTC around 23K this time......10th November, market tanks from $380 - $300

10th Jan Huge movement of BTC   47K.......12th Jan, market tanks from $450, bottoming out at $350

and now.....on the 25th Jan, another 47K Days Destroyed spike.......

.......and Amph says 'Nothing to Worry About'.



LOL!


Amph...the gift that keeps on giving!

[Lutzow]

If this is true, they could dump coins in the exchange to create a market crash along with added Sell orders. Once the market stabilized itself again with the new low price, they'll start buying btcs again. So dumping coins is not far off plus it will definitely benefit anyone who knows what'll going to happen.

[justspare]

I doubt that they are selling their coins, they are probably just moving their coins from 1 account to another.

I agree with you that no one is selling this big quantity in one time, because dumping them in one block is a big lose for the owner, If s/he wants to sell them s/he would sell them in small quantities in several days so s/he will not affect the price in a bad way

You would have to be pretty rich to buy a lot of coins at once. These guys were probably early investors and want to keep their coins safe.

[~Bitcoin~]

I think they want to make their coin in cold wallet more secure after seeing cryptsy cold wallet getting hacked. 
Dump at this point only cause a big loss for them and if they sell now definately they should be some noobs.

[Ayle56]

The price spiked to 500, then later to 465, then recently 420. The highs have been getting lower since November and big holders who have patiently waited for it to go above 500 again might have lost their patience. They might have decided this is the best price they will get in the short term.

[lumeire]

So that's why we're back at sub-$400 now eh? 

Well if that's the case then it'll probably recover by this week or the next.

[randy8777]

So that's why we're back at sub-$400 now eh? 

Well if that's the case then it'll probably recover by this week or the next.

if the owners of these coins would really dump these coins, then the price would easily tank to $200 and probably much lower than that. i think they are just moving their coins for security reasons.

[Amph]

i don't think that they are dumping, why dumping now when the value is recovering, and thus coins already seen the 1200 ath, i think they will wait untill that point is reached again before even thinking to dump their stash

Well then Amph the Optimistic Sheep...

Lets have a little look at the different spikes in BTC movement (anything over 15K), and what the market done around or after those times.....


Prior to 10th August...we had the Log average give 21K days destroyed........August 14th, Bitcoin flash crashes down to $162 on Finex.

Just after 24th August, a double spike, Bitcoin corrects from $230 down to $195 on Finex.

Around 10th September, a spike of 16K days destroyed...market remains 'flat' albeit trending down over the following few days.

Next big movement was on 2nd Nov, around 20K days destroyed...on 4th November, market tanks from $500 - $380

Then on the 9th Nov, another big movement of BTC around 23K this time......10th November, market tanks from $380 - $300

10th Jan Huge movement of BTC   47K.......12th Jan, market tanks from $450, bottoming out at $350

and now.....on the 25th Jan, another 47K Days Destroyed spike.......

.......and Amph says 'Nothing to Worry About'.



LOL!


Amph...the gift that keeps on giving!

besides the laught each time, you see that i was again right, the price is recovering in a shy way, like we have seen this many time

why still anyone think that 350 will be the new high and we find ourselves suddenly, below it

there is no reason for a dump now, really no reason when you think about the fact that the last price was achieved very slowly, not like the 1200 run up, people should really stop comparing with the past

[oblomov]

The fact is that a spike in BDD does not correlate strongly with a subsequent decline in price.

Here are the instances where BDD > 20MM over the past year:


Date           BDD           Price           Price 7d+   % change
21-Feb-15   27080982   245.66   252.98   3.0%
11-Mar-15   21316459   293.29   265.85   -9.4%
23-Apr-15   52616145   235.48   235.13   -0.1%
09-Aug-15   21986569   265.42   257.47   -3.0%
24-Aug-15   24138383   213.24   230.94   8.3%
26-Aug-15   23636756   228.84   230.68   0.8%
07-Nov-15   22926715   387.38   331.90    -14.3%
08-Jan-16   47974258   447.04   391.62   -12.4%
23-Jan-16   47285851   388.50      
                    average % change      -3.4%
                               % down   63%


This is even including the most recent instance, which may be an outlier.


Also, here are the instances where BDD <350K:

Date           BDD           Price           Price 7d+   % change
04-Feb-15   303016   222.56   221.99   -0.3%
08-Feb-15   174903   223.50   243.99   9.2%
09-Mar-15   312469   287.48   290.88   1.2%
14-Mar-15   312975   284.21   257.83   -9.3%
26-Mar-15   204256   251.98   252.44   0.2%
29-Mar-15   337273   244.05   257.03   5.3%
19-Apr-15   224641   225.72   218.42   -3.2%
10-May-15   308217   239.35   235.78   -1.5%
12-Sep-15   321233   235.13   230.71   -1.9%
13-Sep-15   341842   229.86   230.20       0.1%
27-Sep-15   314624   232.85   239.47   2.8%
            
                    average % change      -0.9%
                               % down   50%

So maybe we should be cautious when BDD is small relative to average.  The average price change during the subsequent 7 days is -0.9%.


 

[MatTheCat]

The fact is that a spike in BDD does not correlate strongly with a subsequent decline in price.

Here are the instances where BDD > 20MM over the past year:


Date           BDD           Price           Price 7d+   % change
21-Feb-15   27080982   245.66   252.98   3.0%
11-Mar-15   21316459   293.29   265.85   -9.4%
23-Apr-15   52616145   235.48   235.13   -0.1%
09-Aug-15   21986569   265.42   257.47   -3.0%
24-Aug-15   24138383   213.24   230.94   8.3%
26-Aug-15   23636756   228.84   230.68   0.8%
07-Nov-15   22926715   387.38   331.90    -14.3%
08-Jan-16   47974258   447.04   391.62   -12.4%
23-Jan-16   47285851   388.50      
                    average % change      -3.4%
                               % down   63%


This is even including the most recent instance, which may be an outlier.


Also, here are the instances where BDD <350K:

Date           BDD           Price           Price 7d+   % change
04-Feb-15   303016   222.56   221.99   -0.3%
08-Feb-15   174903   223.50   243.99   9.2%
09-Mar-15   312469   287.48   290.88   1.2%
14-Mar-15   312975   284.21   257.83   -9.3%
26-Mar-15   204256   251.98   252.44   0.2%
29-Mar-15   337273   244.05   257.03   5.3%
19-Apr-15   224641   225.72   218.42   -3.2%
10-May-15   308217   239.35   235.78   -1.5%
12-Sep-15   321233   235.13   230.71   -1.9%
13-Sep-15   341842   229.86   230.20       0.1%
27-Sep-15   314624   232.85   239.47   2.8%
            
                    average % change      -0.9%
                               % down   50%

So maybe we should be cautious when BDD is small relative to average.  The average price change during the subsequent 7 days is -0.9%.

Whatever.

I looked at the spikes on that chart, looked at when they occured, and looked at what happened to Bitcoin shortly thereafter and I seen a very distinct relationship.

[uki]

if you filter days destroyed for only those coins with a minimum age of one year, it looks like a lot of old coins moved recently:

https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

An exchange accessing a cold wallet or someone preparing to dump perhaps 

dumping now doesn't make much sense if the coins have been stored for that long, why not waiting a bit more. The sentiment has changed to positive, thus, soon price should go higher. As written above, probably cold storage movements.

[oblomov]

Whatever.

I looked at the spikes on that chart, looked at when they occured, and looked at what happened to Bitcoin shortly thereafter and I seen a very distinct relationship.

Then show the evidence for a statistically significant relationship.

I provided data and evidence, and the best you can muster is "Whatever".

[MatTheCat]

Whatever.

I looked at the spikes on that chart, looked at when they occured, and looked at what happened to Bitcoin shortly thereafter and I seen a very distinct relationship.

Then show the evidence for a statistically significant relationship.

I provided data and evidence, and the best you can muster is "Whatever".

The chart that OP posted, is a chart showing great spikes that occured in the last month, where BTC that had spent a lot of time in stasis, started being sent between wallets. Within a day or two, BTC exchanges started crashing.