Runaway miner acquisition "syndrome"

[Biodom]

Bitisdom keeps looking pretty ugly still:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    120,033,340,651
Estimated Next Difficulty:    141,261,643,679 (+17.69%)
Adjust time:    After 974 Blocks, About 5.8 days
Hashrate(?):    1,084,629,999 GH/s

Price around 373... so again not way we want  to go.   This change is not going to be fun.

truly brutal numbers

Bitfury, Bitmain, etc. are killing the golden goose.
Do meager 200K transactions/day need above 1 exahashes of security?
Of course, not. This is ridiculous.

[1715512687]

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[1715512687]

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[1715512687]

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[philipma1957]

Bitisdom keeps looking pretty ugly still:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    120,033,340,651
Estimated Next Difficulty:    141,261,643,679 (+17.69%)
Adjust time:    After 974 Blocks, About 5.8 days
Hashrate(?):    1,084,629,999 GH/s

Price around 373... so again not way we want  to go.   This change is not going to be fun.

truly brutal numbers

Bitfury, Bitmain, etc. are killing the golden goose.
Do meager 200K transactions/day need above 1 exahashes of security?
Of course, not. This is ridiculous.

and where do you get the 200k transactions number?

 along with that how much coins in the transactions?  a link could help me with that set of  numbers

this link reads 110,000,000 transactions per day


https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-total


this link has btc value

https://blockchain.info/charts/output-volume

[Biodom]

Bitisdom keeps looking pretty ugly still:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    120,033,340,651
Estimated Next Difficulty:    141,261,643,679 (+17.69%)
Adjust time:    After 974 Blocks, About 5.8 days
Hashrate(?):    1,084,629,999 GH/s

Price around 373... so again not way we want  to go.   This change is not going to be fun.

truly brutal numbers

Bitfury, Bitmain, etc. are killing the golden goose.
Do meager 200K transactions/day need above 1 exahashes of security?
Of course, not. This is ridiculous.

and where do you get the 200k transactions number?

 along with that how much coins in the transactions?  a link could help me with that set of  numbers

this link reads 110,000,000 transactions per day


https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-total


this link has btc value

https://blockchain.info/charts/output-volume

I got 200K number by looking at these graphs (one day is less relevant):
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions
and/or
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular

[alh]

Bitisdom keeps looking pretty ugly still:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    120,033,340,651
Estimated Next Difficulty:    141,261,643,679 (+17.69%)
Adjust time:    After 974 Blocks, About 5.8 days
Hashrate(?):    1,084,629,999 GH/s

Price around 373... so again not way we want  to go.   This change is not going to be fun.

truly brutal numbers

Bitfury, Bitmain, etc. are killing the golden goose.
Do meager 200K transactions/day need above 1 exahashes of security?
Of course, not. This is ridiculous.

and where do you get the 200k transactions number?

 along with that how much coins in the transactions?  a link could help me with that set of  numbers

this link reads 110,000,000 transactions per day


https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-total


this link has btc value

https://blockchain.info/charts/output-volume

While the chart that calls out 110M transactions isn't completely clear, I interpret it to mean that from Feb 2015 until Feb2016, there were about 50M transactions for that year. 110M /day just doesn't make any sense. Unless Kano isn't playing things straight, the "Transaction Fees" in a block are no more than .3 BTC (roughly). Multiply that by say 200 (a really huge day), and you have 60 BTC in fees? Divide that by 110M and the fee essentially vanishes. It can't that small I don't think.

[philipma1957]

I looked at it very carefully and that is all the transactions ever made.

So last month 6,000,000 were made so 30 x 200,000 = 6,000,000

So the 200,000 per day is correct. So a 1000ph made about 200000 transactions.

So 200 s-7s = 1 ph


we have 200,000  s-7s. So we use 1 s-7s to do 1 transaction a day

1 s-7s cost about 925.

so a 925 dollar machine using 2-3 dollars in power is doing  1 transaction per day. A transaction fee is 0.0002 btc give or take.

So the math is you lose.

This needs crazy transaction growth to work.  And with block size stuck at under 1 million  how do transactions grow?

0.0002 btc  is about 7.5 us cents.   So the s-7 that cost you 1k and you spend 2 or 3 bucks a day in power is making 1 transaction for a 7.5 cent fee.

Not good.

note I did an edit I had 10 s-7's not 1 s-7 per transaction I had a decimal shifted.

[notlist3d]

I looked at it very carefully and that is all the transactions ever made.

So last month 6,000,000 were made so 30 x 200,000 = 6,000,000

So the 200,000 per day is correct. So a 1000ph made about 200000 transactions.

So 2000 s-7s = 1 ph


we have 2,000,000 s-7s. So we use 10 s-7s to do 1 transaction a day

10 s-7s cost about 9k.

One thing to keep in mind is S7's on batch 10 are not shipping till "Shipping out date: Starting between Feb. 16~20 following order of full payment after we're back from holiday." So for half a month are they filling their own miner spots?  Some big orders? It's hard to say.

And they could build a bunch mine with them and then after running till after holiday's sell as batch 10 chances are making some quick ROI's for them.

[RustyNoman]

I repeat: there is no significant increase on bitfury and antpool pools. So it's not S7 and not new bitfury machines, it's something else.

Antpool has gone from about 67 Petahash to over 200 Petahash in the last 6 months.

Bitfury has gone from about 60 Petahash to 130 Petahash.

In both cases it has been a continuous increase.  

Almost all pools have at least doubled their hashing in the last 6 months. The only pool who has not grown is 21 Inc which has sat at about 15-20 Petahash.

https://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/6m?c=m&r=month&t=l

Antpool and Bitfury are both supported by its own farms. These two will introduce very fast miner next quarter also.

[philipma1957]

these numbers do not work  the growth in gear is not sustainable with prices at 370 and transactions at 200,000 a day

This simply has to go bust.  Or zoom.    prices need to be at over 1000 usd for these current numbers to make any sense.

[notlist3d]

these numbers do not work  the growth in gear is not sustainable with prices at 370 and transactions at 200,000 a day

This simply has to go bust.  Or zoom.    prices need to be at over 1000 usd for these current numbers to make any sense.

The scary thing is I think some of the big data centers it works with that have a few cent electricity.   So it could stay the same and just drive a lot of little/hobby miners out.   That is not a fun option, but could possibly happen.

I hope it goes zoom as you put it if we could get a jump equal to difficulty change that would be great news.  But so far does not seem price has went zoom or bust.  So hard to speculate in times like this.

[enquirer]

these numbers do not work  the growth in gear is not sustainable with prices at 370 and transactions at 200,000 a day

This simply has to go bust.  Or zoom.    prices need to be at over 1000 usd for these current numbers to make any sense.

The scary thing is I think some of the big data centers it works with that have a few cent electricity.   So it could stay the same and just drive a lot of little/hobby miners out.   That is not a fun option, but could possibly happen.

I hope it goes zoom as you put it if we could get a jump equal to difficulty change that would be great news.  But so far does not seem price has went zoom or bust.  So hard to speculate in times like this.

I think they still make most money from selling devices, not from hashing (Bitmain at least). So at this production rate all of their customers will never return what they invested into machines, and who will buy the next generation miners? Even the Powerball lottery gives a small ray of hope - someone, somewhere earns money from it.

[enquirer]

S7 for $925 with DIR=15% is only profitable at electricity rate < 2.5c/kWH

[RustyNoman]

S7 for $925 with DIR=15% is only profitable at electricity rate < 2.5c/kWH

The difficulty rise the key here. It is too fast recently and when the BitFury 16 nm miner comes out, it will rise further.