Biodom (OP)
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Activity: 3878
Merit: 4305
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February 01, 2016, 07:08:52 PM |
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Bitisdom keeps looking pretty ugly still:
Bitcoin Difficulty: 120,033,340,651 Estimated Next Difficulty: 141,261,643,679 (+17.69%) Adjust time: After 974 Blocks, About 5.8 days Hashrate(?): 1,084,629,999 GH/s
Price around 373... so again not way we want to go. This change is not going to be fun.
truly brutal numbers Bitfury, Bitmain, etc. are killing the golden goose. Do meager 200K transactions/day need above 1 exahashes of security? Of course, not. This is ridiculous.
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philipma1957
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Activity: 4242
Merit: 8510
'The right to privacy matters'
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February 01, 2016, 08:07:42 PM |
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Bitisdom keeps looking pretty ugly still:
Bitcoin Difficulty: 120,033,340,651 Estimated Next Difficulty: 141,261,643,679 (+17.69%) Adjust time: After 974 Blocks, About 5.8 days Hashrate(?): 1,084,629,999 GH/s
Price around 373... so again not way we want to go. This change is not going to be fun.
truly brutal numbers Bitfury, Bitmain, etc. are killing the golden goose. Do meager 200K transactions/day need above 1 exahashes of security? Of course, not. This is ridiculous. and where do you get the 200k transactions number? along with that how much coins in the transactions? a link could help me with that set of numbers this link reads 110,000,000 transactions per day https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-totalthis link has btc value https://blockchain.info/charts/output-volume
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Biodom (OP)
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Activity: 3878
Merit: 4305
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February 01, 2016, 08:29:16 PM |
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Bitisdom keeps looking pretty ugly still:
Bitcoin Difficulty: 120,033,340,651 Estimated Next Difficulty: 141,261,643,679 (+17.69%) Adjust time: After 974 Blocks, About 5.8 days Hashrate(?): 1,084,629,999 GH/s
Price around 373... so again not way we want to go. This change is not going to be fun.
truly brutal numbers Bitfury, Bitmain, etc. are killing the golden goose. Do meager 200K transactions/day need above 1 exahashes of security? Of course, not. This is ridiculous. and where do you get the 200k transactions number? along with that how much coins in the transactions? a link could help me with that set of numbers this link reads 110,000,000 transactions per day https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-totalthis link has btc value https://blockchain.info/charts/output-volumeI got 200K number by looking at these graphs (one day is less relevant): https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactionsand/or https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular
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alh
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Activity: 1846
Merit: 1052
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February 01, 2016, 09:32:50 PM |
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Bitisdom keeps looking pretty ugly still:
Bitcoin Difficulty: 120,033,340,651 Estimated Next Difficulty: 141,261,643,679 (+17.69%) Adjust time: After 974 Blocks, About 5.8 days Hashrate(?): 1,084,629,999 GH/s
Price around 373... so again not way we want to go. This change is not going to be fun.
truly brutal numbers Bitfury, Bitmain, etc. are killing the golden goose. Do meager 200K transactions/day need above 1 exahashes of security? Of course, not. This is ridiculous. and where do you get the 200k transactions number? along with that how much coins in the transactions? a link could help me with that set of numbers this link reads 110,000,000 transactions per day https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-totalthis link has btc value https://blockchain.info/charts/output-volumeWhile the chart that calls out 110M transactions isn't completely clear, I interpret it to mean that from Feb 2015 until Feb2016, there were about 50M transactions for that year. 110M /day just doesn't make any sense. Unless Kano isn't playing things straight, the "Transaction Fees" in a block are no more than .3 BTC (roughly). Multiply that by say 200 (a really huge day), and you have 60 BTC in fees? Divide that by 110M and the fee essentially vanishes. It can't that small I don't think.
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philipma1957
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Activity: 4242
Merit: 8510
'The right to privacy matters'
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February 02, 2016, 04:19:41 AM Last edit: February 03, 2016, 12:30:26 PM by philipma1957 |
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I looked at it very carefully and that is all the transactions ever made.
So last month 6,000,000 were made so 30 x 200,000 = 6,000,000
So the 200,000 per day is correct. So a 1000ph made about 200000 transactions.
So 200 s-7s = 1 ph
we have 200,000 s-7s. So we use 1 s-7s to do 1 transaction a day
1 s-7s cost about 925.
so a 925 dollar machine using 2-3 dollars in power is doing 1 transaction per day. A transaction fee is 0.0002 btc give or take.
So the math is you lose.
This needs crazy transaction growth to work. And with block size stuck at under 1 million how do transactions grow?
0.0002 btc is about 7.5 us cents. So the s-7 that cost you 1k and you spend 2 or 3 bucks a day in power is making 1 transaction for a 7.5 cent fee.
Not good.
note I did an edit I had 10 s-7's not 1 s-7 per transaction I had a decimal shifted.
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notlist3d
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Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
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February 02, 2016, 08:20:13 AM |
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I looked at it very carefully and that is all the transactions ever made.
So last month 6,000,000 were made so 30 x 200,000 = 6,000,000
So the 200,000 per day is correct. So a 1000ph made about 200000 transactions.
So 2000 s-7s = 1 ph
we have 2,000,000 s-7s. So we use 10 s-7s to do 1 transaction a day
10 s-7s cost about 9k.
One thing to keep in mind is S7's on batch 10 are not shipping till "Shipping out date: Starting between Feb. 16~20 following order of full payment after we're back from holiday." So for half a month are they filling their own miner spots? Some big orders? It's hard to say. And they could build a bunch mine with them and then after running till after holiday's sell as batch 10 chances are making some quick ROI's for them.
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RustyNoman
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February 03, 2016, 10:37:17 AM |
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I repeat: there is no significant increase on bitfury and antpool pools. So it's not S7 and not new bitfury machines, it's something else.
Antpool has gone from about 67 Petahash to over 200 Petahash in the last 6 months. Bitfury has gone from about 60 Petahash to 130 Petahash. In both cases it has been a continuous increase. Almost all pools have at least doubled their hashing in the last 6 months. The only pool who has not grown is 21 Inc which has sat at about 15-20 Petahash. https://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/6m?c=m&r=month&t=lAntpool and Bitfury are both supported by its own farms. These two will introduce very fast miner next quarter also.
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philipma1957
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Activity: 4242
Merit: 8510
'The right to privacy matters'
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February 03, 2016, 04:35:24 PM |
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these numbers do not work the growth in gear is not sustainable with prices at 370 and transactions at 200,000 a day
This simply has to go bust. Or zoom. prices need to be at over 1000 usd for these current numbers to make any sense.
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notlist3d
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Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
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February 04, 2016, 01:08:48 AM |
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these numbers do not work the growth in gear is not sustainable with prices at 370 and transactions at 200,000 a day
This simply has to go bust. Or zoom. prices need to be at over 1000 usd for these current numbers to make any sense.
The scary thing is I think some of the big data centers it works with that have a few cent electricity. So it could stay the same and just drive a lot of little/hobby miners out. That is not a fun option, but could possibly happen. I hope it goes zoom as you put it if we could get a jump equal to difficulty change that would be great news. But so far does not seem price has went zoom or bust. So hard to speculate in times like this.
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enquirer
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February 04, 2016, 06:05:52 AM |
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these numbers do not work the growth in gear is not sustainable with prices at 370 and transactions at 200,000 a day
This simply has to go bust. Or zoom. prices need to be at over 1000 usd for these current numbers to make any sense.
The scary thing is I think some of the big data centers it works with that have a few cent electricity. So it could stay the same and just drive a lot of little/hobby miners out. That is not a fun option, but could possibly happen. I hope it goes zoom as you put it if we could get a jump equal to difficulty change that would be great news. But so far does not seem price has went zoom or bust. So hard to speculate in times like this. I think they still make most money from selling devices, not from hashing (Bitmain at least). So at this production rate all of their customers will never return what they invested into machines, and who will buy the next generation miners? Even the Powerball lottery gives a small ray of hope - someone, somewhere earns money from it.
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enquirer
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February 04, 2016, 06:13:41 AM |
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S7 for $925 with DIR=15% is only profitable at electricity rate < 2.5c/kWH
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RustyNoman
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February 05, 2016, 11:54:40 AM |
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S7 for $925 with DIR=15% is only profitable at electricity rate < 2.5c/kWH
The difficulty rise the key here. It is too fast recently and when the BitFury 16 nm miner comes out, it will rise further.
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