The real disastor that could happen (forking Bitcoin)...

[CIYAM]

If we actually end up with a forked blockchain then we will have "two Bitcoins" (or more depending upon the software being used).

What will this do?

For a start I predict it will cause all exchanges to "stop trading" (as they will not want to risk fiat losses in case they have ended up on the wrong fork).

Once the exchanges have stopped then the miners can no longer sell their BTC block rewards so that means within a very short time there will be a serious problem in the mining area.

The amount of electricity that miners are paying for is so large that they will most likely shut down their hashing operations if the exchanges have closed down which will reduce the difficulty (in two weeks).

After two weeks if the problem hasn't been worked out then everyone is basically going to walk away and the Bitcoin experiment will be declared a failure.

This is what we are facing (so you've got to wonder why Gavin wants to try and push for this).

[thejaytiesto]

I don't think there will be a hard fork, slowly people are waking up at the stupidity of hard forking right now and are seeing the tradeoffs, Bitcoin's Core capacity increases will continue and people will learn from this once the drama is over. Of course it can always happen again, apparently XT was not enough so we have to go through Classic now. But every time Bitcoin survives this bullshit it just proves it's resilience and makes it stronger.

[NorrisK]

I think you are doom thinking a bit too much there.

Hard fork will be announced plenty far before the fork. Exchanges have sufficient time to decide what form they will be trading.

And even if they shut down, the miners can take a hit for a while. They may also trade them off exchange with a bit more trouble.

[BellaBitBit]

I don't think there will be a hard fork, slowly people are waking up at the stupidity of hard forking right now and are seeing the tradeoffs, Bitcoin's Core capacity increases will continue and people will learn from this once the drama is over. Of course it can always happen again, apparently XT was not enough so we have to go through Classic now. But every time Bitcoin survives this bullshit it just proves it's resilience and makes it stronger.

I am hoping your last sentence is correct, it seems that Bitcoin is resilient to just about anything and stays alive.  I have been trying to read and understand the difference between soft and hard fork and am getting there with my understanding.

[jugador]

I think you are doom thinking a bit too much there.

Hard fork will be announced plenty far before the fork. Exchanges have sufficient time to decide what form they will be trading.

And even if they shut down, the miners can take a hit for a while. They may also trade them off exchange with a bit more trouble.

People seem to be desperate about the fork, as if miners were poor little creatures that could not be bothered whatsoever... It's just evolution. Growing is painful.

[chennan]

I think you are doom thinking a bit too much there.

Hard fork will be announced plenty far before the fork. Exchanges have sufficient time to decide what form they will be trading.

And even if they shut down, the miners can take a hit for a while. They may also trade them off exchange with a bit more trouble.

Because I'm not a miner, I wouldn't know about the costs of electricity and operational costs; but I would think that even if they could take a hit "for a while", it wouldn't be for a very long time.  I would think at the absolute most, they could probably last 3 or so weeks; because of the fact that electricity bills usually come in monthly.

Plus, it would be pretty scary to be pointing your miners toward the "old coin" rather than the new fork and have your newly minted "old" bitcoins become essentially worthless.  I would have to think that the devs such as Gavin would have to give people atleast 2 weeks in advance to give heads up for the fork.

[Lauda]

Actually if we simplify the situation we can get a better picture of the problem. The main problems are the time of activation and the consensus threshold. As far as things stand and Classic is concerned the consensus threshold is 75% and the grace period is 4 weeks (IIRC). This means, that they expect that the whole industry to upgrade in a very short amount of time. This is ridiculous; we can't even get the miners to agree on a single soft fork in that matter of time. Even if we disregard the groups behind the current implementation a fork should have:
1) Minimum 95% consensus threshold
2) Scheduled 6 months or longer from now
A fork in the current scenario would have a negative effect on everything just for a little increase in TPS, which can be achieved with Segwit.

[LiteCoinGuy]

i dont think there will be a hard fork too because there is no good alternative. you need more than 1-2 devs and a plan to make 2MB blocks - that is not enough.

[knight22]

When Classic will get activated, I doubt anyone will stay on the 25% chain. That chain will end up being 0.

[CIYAM]

When Classic will get activated, I doubt anyone will stay on the 25% chain. That chain will end up being 0.

You seem to miss the point - it won't be such a clear cut case and the exchanges *will shut down* (they would be stupid to not do so).

So the mining pools will end up with no-one to sell their BTC to.

Do you really think they'll keep on mining?

[Lauda]

When Classic will get activated, I doubt anyone will stay on the 25% chain. That chain will end up being 0.

There you have it. The idea behind Classic is not about upgrading nor helping the existing ecosystem. You are essentially forcing the miners and everyone else to upgrade to a new chain in a time period where losses are already being counted. Why would anyone with good intentions want to do this? Essentially it is a power grab and nothing more.

i dont think there will be a hard fork too because there is no good alternative. you need more than 1-2 devs and a plan to make 2MB blocks - that is not enough.

Exactly. If you take out Gavin and Garzik out of the equation, Classic has nothing.

[blunderer]

When Classic will get activated, I doubt anyone will stay on the 25% chain. That chain will end up being 0.

You seem to miss the point - it won't be such a clear cut case and the exchanges *will shut down* (they would be stupid to not do so).

So the mining pools will end up with no-one to sell their BTC to.

Do you really think they'll keep on mining?

Which miners do you mean -- the ones on the 25% fork or the ones on the 75% fork?

[knight22]

When Classic will get activated, I doubt anyone will stay on the 25% chain. That chain will end up being 0.

You seem to miss the point - it won't be such a clear cut case and the exchanges *will shut down* (they would be stupid to not do so).

So the mining pools will end up with no-one to sell their BTC to.

Do you really think they'll keep on mining?

Why on earth exchanges will stop trading? Most (if not all) of them support Classic btw.

[CIYAM]

Why on earth exchanges will stop trading? Most (if not all) of them support Classic btw.

Because they risk a "fiat loss" (i.e. "real money").

So if they have ended up on the wrong side of a fork they will actually go bankrupt.

I doubt any exchange is going to really want to "brave this" (so they will all just shutdown until a resolution happens).

Let's see if the exchanges are really going to publicly state that they will work on a fork (I very much doubt that any of them will do so).

[Amph]

When Classic will get activated, I doubt anyone will stay on the 25% chain. That chain will end up being 0.

assuming that classing will gather 75% of consensus right? where are the bettings on this?

there are data that show that classic is so far ahead than unlimtied and core?

[blunderer]

Why on earth exchanges will stop trading? Most (if not all) of them support Classic btw.

Because they risk a "fiat loss" (i.e. "real money").
...

Explain "fiat loss" How would exchanges holding BTC be any different than you holding BTC?

[CIYAM]

Explain "fiat loss" How would exchanges holding BTC be any different than you holding BTC?

Apparently you are already "suing me" (from another topic) so can you just keep out of this topic?

(and good luck with your legal suite)

[knight22]

When Classic will get activated, I doubt anyone will stay on the 25% chain. That chain will end up being 0.

assuming that classing will gather 75% of consensus right? where are the bettings on this?

there are data that show that classic is so far ahead than unlimtied and core?

No data yet. Mostly vocal support from a majority of mining pools and the broad industry at this point. That's why Classic has the most chance to get activated.

[Jet Cash]

With my limited understanding, I've come to really like SegWit and some associated options. Is there anything we can do to help - take up mining in a small way for example?

[CIYAM]

No data yet. Mostly vocal support from a majority of mining pools and the broad industry at this point. That's why Classic as the most chance to get activated.

The miners need the exchanges - and the exchanges are not going to risk losing fiat.

So if the exchanges stop exchanging then the miners will stop mining - it is fairly simple.