BTCKeno.com

[f1gm3nt]

Updates

• Updated the site so it now uses secret keys when calculating the random numbers. You can see the keys at http://btckeno.com/keys and the code that generates the random numbers at https://gist.github.com/4516159 The picks are generated by the bet transaction id and the secret key that is used is the one that is current for that day when the bet comes in.

Future/Planned Updates

• Display the most recent winners/losers on homepage
• Update pay table
• Increase the max bet

Most of the major issues that everyone seems to have had are now updated and fixed. I will continue working on the site and post updates here every now and again. As always suggestions are welcome.

[f1gm3nt]

Updates

Sorry I have not posted any updates in awhile, there have been a few personal issues. Just want everyone to know that I'm still here 

• Homepage now lists previous 10 tickets

In the coming few weeks I plan on updating the site with a lot of new features. Also plan on sitting down and tweeking the payout table to spit out better returns for clients. Also plan on spitting out some paytable stats soon as well. It will a prettier version of this:

Code:

Hits  Prize           Combinations       Probability          Frequency          Variance            Return        House Edge
 0     0.000                    60 0.750000000000000               1.33 0.067500000000000 0.000000000000000 0.000000000000000
 1     1.200                    20 0.250000000000000               4.00 0.202500000000000 0.300000000000000 0.700000000000000

And will also list all of the expected returns. The above assumes you bet the max of 1 BTC and only picked one number. This should address

looks like you didn't check the probabilities.

you should adjust your payouts because:

if I play only one number, my expected return is 0.3 times the bet
if I play 13 numbers, my expected return is 0.986163742250369 times the bet

and your house edge is almost 30%, this is too much for a bitcoin gambling site.

I am also open to any other comments and suggestions that people have. I also plan on having some quick pick buttons, click the "Pick 5" button and 5 numbers get randomly picked for you.

There may also be a need for me to pre-populate the payout address field to the last one you used?

Any other data you guys would like to see about the numbers, let me know.

Thanks
-Joshua

[f1gm3nt]

Updates

• Updated the homepage to have "Quick Picks", you pick the number and it will randomly select that amount.
• Payout Table Update - I have only updated the one pick, see below for the payout rate, other numbers remain the same, I'll get around to updating those a little later. Pick one number for a 95% expected return =)

Prize = Multiplier, ie (bet amount * multipier), bet amounts MUST be between 0.01 BTC and 1 BTC.

Code:

Hits  Prize           Combinations       Probability          Frequency          Variance            Return        House Edge
 0     0.000                    60 0.750000000000000               1.33 0.676875000000000 0.000000000000000 0.000000000000000
 1     3.800                    20 0.250000000000000               4.00 2.030625000000000 0.950000000000000 0.050000000000000

Have fun guys, I already see a few people using this a lot ;p I'm always open to comments/suggestions to improve the site.

[f1gm3nt]

Updates Feb 14, 2013

• Increased payout for one picks
• Updated the homepage a little
• View your odds in json - http://btckeno.com/odds

Added a page that will list your odds based on the amount of numbers you want to pick. By default it will display the odds for if you select 15 numbers. It gives the odds for each hit. So to read it, if you pick 15 numbers, the probability that you will get X hits is... The prize is your multiplier, so if you bet 1 BTC, multiply that by the multiplier to get your amount won.

Here are links to all odds for all valid picks.

http://btckeno.com/odds?picks=1
http://btckeno.com/odds?picks=2
http://btckeno.com/odds?picks=3
http://btckeno.com/odds?picks=4
http://btckeno.com/odds?picks=5
http://btckeno.com/odds?picks=6
http://btckeno.com/odds?picks=7
http://btckeno.com/odds?picks=8
http://btckeno.com/odds?picks=9
http://btckeno.com/odds?picks=10
http://btckeno.com/odds?picks=11
http://btckeno.com/odds?picks=12
http://btckeno.com/odds?picks=13
http://btckeno.com/odds?picks=14
http://btckeno.com/odds?picks=15

NOTE: This url will stay valid, however I am planning on cleaning up the page to so default response will be just a plan HTML page.

Future updates to the payout table will include decreased expected return for some of the picks. A one pick game will always contain your best odds. The others will just be for shits and giggles, I see no point in having a keno game if the expected rate of return is constant for every outcome.

As always, feel free to post a reply or PM me if you have any suggestions/ideas/complaints and I will take care of them.

[BRules]

I see no point in having a keno game if the expected rate of return is constant for every outcome.

really? Why not? The reason the players play with more numbers is to have a chance of winning more with the same bet value.

[f1gm3nt]

I see no point in having a keno game if the expected rate of return is constant for every outcome.

really? Why not? The reason the players play with more numbers is to have a chance of winning more with the same bet value.

So if I pick 1 number, my expected return is 97.5%. If I pick say 4 numbers, each number has it's own expected return. So if I was to make everything have a constant expected return, what's the point in submitting a ticket with 1 number or 15?

[BRules]

what's the point in submitting a ticket with 1 number or 15?

The reason the players play with more numbers is to have a chance of winning more with the same bet value.

with your odds, when playing with 1 number you have 25% odds of winning 3.9 and only 3.9
but when playing lets say with this paytable for the 13 numbers:

0-0
1-0
2-0
3-0.5
4-1
5-2
6-4
7-8
8-23
9-80
10-220
11-620
12-2670
13-6000

you have will more than 41% of getting between your ticket back and 6000 times your bet. for sure I will bet with 13 numbers.

The problem is that you're dealing with human nature. If I will gamble my money, so I wanna have a chance, even if it is insignificant, of multiplying it by thousands.

Take the satoshidice statistical analysis by dooglus https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312

number of bets of "less than 2": 4326
number of bets of "less than 1": 84807

we have two times the chance of hitting the "less than 1" with the "less than 2" and when hitting the less than 2 my money will be multiplied by 32000. but the people choose to cut the chances by the half to have a chance of winning 64000x.

[DPony13]

I already have a confirmation

though it says it hasn't confirmed, nor
that it has received it.

Is this script automatic or manual?
:I