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Author Topic: This is where "the community" kisses my feet. Again.  (Read 3560 times)
MPOE-PR
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January 10, 2013, 09:33:07 AM
 #21

Nice, there's going to be material for the laughs of next Spring too.

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MPOE-PR
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January 10, 2013, 09:37:38 AM
 #22

The question is one of how much risk there is and whether it's likely that you could actually find the right time to sell it a profit.  ...  Note that I'm making the strongest possible case in the opposite direction. The truth is in-between. Satoshi Dice is not like Pirate who never made any actual profits from any actual business activity and where the prospects for ever having an actual, legitimate return were always zero.

Satoshi Dice is actually probably undervalued compared to the Aug/Sep timeframe MPOE-PR was referring to.

In other words, if you do the probability (some other math whiz can solve this if they feel particularly magnanimous) that SD will exhaust its RE's due to bad luck in the dice game and cease being a going concern then it reveals that solvency risk just plummeted massively causing an increase in the expected discounted future cash flows.

Yeah. That part is me "taking credit for the success of S.DICE". You know...

Quote
Consequently, a melt-up in the price is to be expected. What is fairly exceptional is that the issuer did not cancel the IPO's at .0037 or at least move the bid up; or maybe the anonymous investor bought them using some dividends. But that is neither here nor there, using a similar risk premium before Dec's earnings would put a price around at least .0075. So it will be interesting to see how long it takes to get there; assuming an average Jan luck.

Not possible, price was specified in the contract.

Nice to see someone who actually gets it tho.

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Bowjob
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January 10, 2013, 09:41:03 AM
 #23

Nice, there's going to be material for the laughs of next Spring too.

If it relates to S.Dice price appreciation, then I'm looking forward to it.

It seemed like a good idea at the time.
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January 10, 2013, 10:11:24 AM
 #24

... could have already sold his shares (if he wanted to) for (0.00468334/0.0032)*1000 = 1,463.54375 BTC. This all comes to a 56% return on investment, or 560.884485598 BTC in cold, hard liquid profit....

How does one sell 1463btc worth of share at 0.0046 when buy depth has only 156 000 shares going as low as 0.0018 ,,, for a possible sell of ~550btc ?

I must say I am very impressed by S.DICE popularity,  I was under the impression bitcoiners knew better that gambling was a waste of time and if not, unprofitable.
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January 10, 2013, 11:25:49 AM
 #25

The worse is that Erik can anytime dump milions of shares if he decides to sell some more  Cool
PsychoticBoy
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January 10, 2013, 11:38:48 AM
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The worse is that Erik can anytime dump milions of shares if he decides to sell some more  Cool

So bottomline, just another pile of crap.
Bowjob
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January 10, 2013, 11:42:29 AM
 #27

The worse is that Erik can anytime dump milions of shares if he decides to sell some more  Cool

So bottomline, just another pile of crap.


Not so. It's irrelevant if Erik sells more shares, it won't dilute the current shares; he already divided S.dice into 100,000,000 shares. He already sold 10% of the dice, meaning at most, he can sell another 40 million shares. I read in the contract that he won't sell more than 50% of S.Dice.

It seemed like a good idea at the time.
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January 10, 2013, 12:25:38 PM
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The worse is that Erik can anytime dump milions of shares if he decides to sell some more  Cool

Not true. There is a 30 day lockup after the IPO sells out.  The anonymous investor could sell additional shares of the 90MM not yet on the market only after the lockup ends.
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January 10, 2013, 12:29:40 PM
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The worse is that Erik can anytime dump milions of shares if he decides to sell some more  Cool

Not true. There is a 30 day lockup after the IPO sells out.  The anonymous investor could sell additional shares of the 90MM not yet on the market only after the lockup ends.

So, investors are still safe until 30 days after IPO sells? What a relief  Grin
MPOE-PR
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January 10, 2013, 12:45:15 PM
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... could have already sold his shares (if he wanted to) for (0.00468334/0.0032)*1000 = 1,463.54375 BTC. This all comes to a 56% return on investment, or 560.884485598 BTC in cold, hard liquid profit....

How does one sell 1463btc worth of share at 0.0046 when buy depth has only 156 000 shares going as low as 0.0018 ,,, for a possible sell of ~550btc ?

I must say I am very impressed by S.DICE popularity,  I was under the impression bitcoiners knew better that gambling was a waste of time and if not, unprofitable.

The trade volume for the day was ~1500 BTC in that quote.

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Bowjob
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January 10, 2013, 12:46:28 PM
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The worse is that Erik can anytime dump milions of shares if he decides to sell some more  Cool

Not true. There is a 30 day lockup after the IPO sells out.  The anonymous investor could sell additional shares of the 90MM not yet on the market only after the lockup ends.

So, investors are still safe until 30 days after IPO sells? What a relief  Grin

Whether they sell more shares or not is irrelevant; the shares cannot be diluted. The most they can sell is 40 more million shares.

It seemed like a good idea at the time.
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January 10, 2013, 01:08:04 PM
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Ha, far from a hater. I respect that you have a good stock on your exchange. If only there was a way to convince evoorhees to move to another exchange...then your delusions of grandeur and superiority complex might finally end Tongue

Cheeky, aren't you.

Definitely Smiley

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January 10, 2013, 04:14:20 PM
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The worse is that Erik can anytime dump milions of shares if he decides to sell some more  Cool

Not true. There is a 30 day lockup after the IPO sells out.  The anonymous investor could sell additional shares of the 90MM not yet on the market only after the lockup ends.

So, investors are still safe until 30 days after IPO sells? What a relief  Grin

Whether they sell more shares or not is irrelevant; the shares cannot be diluted. The most they can sell is 40 more million shares.

The question is if there's a market for additional 40 million shares at IPO prices. Definitely not.  Grin And if SD becomes less profitable and Erik will dump those 40 million to the market, investors are screwed. The SD shares are ridiculously overpriced at this time. Really.
Deprived
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January 10, 2013, 05:22:14 PM
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The worse is that Erik can anytime dump milions of shares if he decides to sell some more  Cool

Not true. There is a 30 day lockup after the IPO sells out.  The anonymous investor could sell additional shares of the 90MM not yet on the market only after the lockup ends.

So, investors are still safe until 30 days after IPO sells? What a relief  Grin

Whether they sell more shares or not is irrelevant; the shares cannot be diluted. The most they can sell is 40 more million shares.

The question is if there's a market for additional 40 million shares at IPO prices. Definitely not.  Grin And if SD becomes less profitable and Erik will dump those 40 million to the market, investors are screwed. The SD shares are ridiculously overpriced at this time. Really.

Would suggest you read the prospectus - he can't just dump them at a low price.
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January 10, 2013, 08:41:39 PM
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The SD shares are ridiculously overpriced at this time. Really.

How have you determined that they are overpriced? Personally, I find it hard to accept that an investment that returns over 20% per year is overvalued, but I would like to see your assessment. Maybe I am missing something.  Can you please tell us what you think the real value is, and show us how you determine it?

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January 10, 2013, 09:02:52 PM
 #36

The SD shares are ridiculously overpriced at this time. Really.

How have you determined that they are overpriced? Personally, I find it hard to accept that an investment that returns over 20% per year is overvalued, but I would like to see your assessment. Maybe I am missing something.  Can you please tell us what you think the real value is, and show us how you determine it?


I like Satoshidice a lot. That being said I think you are severely underestimating the risk. Even though I have no financial interest in Satoshidice I am rooting for them btw Smiley
kgo
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January 10, 2013, 10:21:43 PM
 #37

I haven't actually looked at the contract, but were the above figures accurate that 3200BTC would buy 1% of the company during the IPO?
If so, wouldn't that imply that 1000BTC would buy 0.3125% of the company?
If 1000BTC (0.3125%) has returned 97.34BTC in divs in the last 20 weeks, that would be a total dividend payout of of about 31,500 BTC in less than half a year. Is SatoshiDice really that profitable?

Yes.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.msg1444165#msg1444165
bitcoinbear
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January 11, 2013, 05:58:12 AM
 #38

... could have already sold his shares (if he wanted to) for (0.00468334/0.0032)*1000 = 1,463.54375 BTC. This all comes to a 56% return on investment, or 560.884485598 BTC in cold, hard liquid profit....

How does one sell 1463btc worth of share at 0.0046 when buy depth has only 156 000 shares going as low as 0.0018 ,,, for a possible sell of ~550btc ?

You don't seem to understand how these markets work. One could place an order of 1463btc worth of shares at 0.0046 and then when the order is filled they have 1463btc. The stuff on the order book is just what you could get if you sell right now, it does not stop you from placing your own order higher on the order book.

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GeoRW
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January 11, 2013, 06:20:14 AM
 #39

The worse is that Erik can anytime dump milions of shares if he decides to sell some more  Cool

Not true. There is a 30 day lockup after the IPO sells out.  The anonymous investor could sell additional shares of the 90MM not yet on the market only after the lockup ends.

So, investors are still safe until 30 days after IPO sells? What a relief  Grin

Whether they sell more shares or not is irrelevant; the shares cannot be diluted. The most they can sell is 40 more million shares.

The question is if there's a market for additional 40 million shares at IPO prices. Definitely not.  Grin And if SD becomes less profitable and Erik will dump those 40 million to the market, investors are screwed. The SD shares are ridiculously overpriced at this time. Really.

Would suggest you read the prospectus - he can't just dump them at a low price.

LOL, maybe YOU should read the prospectus yourself again and show me where it states he cannot dump more shares on market  Cool In the contract on MPEX the only thing what somehow hinders selling more shares is the 30 day period after IPO shares are sold which AFAIK is over.
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January 11, 2013, 10:37:21 AM
 #40

1. Dear Lord, what is this ?

Yes, this is dog.
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