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Author Topic: This is where "the community" kisses my feet. Again.  (Read 3560 times)
MPOE-PR
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January 09, 2013, 07:49:05 PM
 #1

So...all the public shares have a total of 10 millions, that's 10% of total shares.

Let's say I buy 1 million shares to get 1% of satoshidice.

1 000 000 x 0.0032 = 3200 BTC.
It costs 3200 BTC to buy 1%.

Expected to have 2700 BTC / month in total profit. 1% of 2700 BTC = 27 BTC.
It cost me 3200 BTC to get 27 BTC / month and it would take me around 118 months to recoup my initial investment, or around 10 years.

I like satoshidice and I appreciate its potential....but I'm not sure at all.

yeah, i was like lulz....

Given the figures of 65BTC/day, 10% across all shares, and so on, I got about 0.5%/month return. With your figures I got about 0.8%/mo. I understand that under most business plans 7%/wk is a clear scam, but this seems like the other side of crazy..

SatoshiDICE is worth 320,000 BTC or $3,200,000 at $10/BTC?

It would take a long time to pay off the 20btc it costs to register on MPEX  Smiley

what is stopping someone from coding up a clone of satoshi dice over a weekend and taking a piece of
the pie... thus reducing your profits.

it seems that is a major threat i would love to hear countered.

what is stopping someone from coding up a clone of satoshi dice over a weekend and taking a piece of
the pie... thus reducing your profits.

it seems that is a major threat i would love to hear countered.

i know of two clones being worked on now, and one for ltc.

its the only reason why iv not started my own yet. however if people buy this stock at this price i will be forced to Smiley

There are clones up and running

I'm working on a variant myself

did i read the fine print right, 100,000,000 shares at .0032 or 3,200,00 btc or more than 30 million usd?

that is insane...

So...all the public shares have a total of 10 millions, that's 10% of total shares.

Let's say I buy 1 million shares to get 1% of satoshidice.

1 000 000 x 0.0032 = 3200 BTC.
It costs 3200 BTC to buy 1%.

Expected to have 2700 BTC / month in total profit. 1% of 2700 BTC = 27 BTC.
It cost me 3200 BTC to get 27 BTC / month and it would take me around 118 months to recoup my initial investment, or around 10 years.

I like satoshidice and I appreciate its potential....but I'm not sure at all.

I am convinced you are not a ponzi scheme - mainly because the returns are so unattractive Tongue

There is at least 1 clone of SD:  http://btcdice.com/
And a "themed" clone of satoshidice: http://satoshiroulette.com/

with the market expected to grow I dont see people ever getting their ROI.

Also Id like to know what bank SD has behind the casino Smiley

why are the bonds being sold 3200% their stated value in the contract. wont they just free fall after the ipo?

Investing in SatoshiDICE actually peaked my interest. These returns are ridiculous though...

0.0033278 BTC for 1/100M of 10%? Are you insane?

Thank the gods that this one did not show up in GLBSE or in any of the other new exchanges that have popped up lately.
20 BTC for opening a account? This is a robbery.
 
Quote
"Want a piece of SatoshiDICE"
LOL... With a deal like this, you do not get even a piece of SatoshiDICE'es ass hair.
There are better and more noble ways to burn your BTC.

Subtracting out one-time costs is a fairly common practice for companies that report non-GAAP statements (though in the real world they must also report GAAP earnings and cannot simply hide one-time costs because they feel like it).

Overall, this seems like a terrible investment idea to me on pretty much all fronts.  You're dealing with a non-entity ("unregistered corporation" wtf?) to purchase extremely small amounts of a business that is extremely easy to copy (see Groupon).  SatoshiDice appears to currently be a sole proprietorship and will remain so in reality because these "shares" have no voting rights.

These "shares" bear more similarities to a an annuity than they do to actual equity.  On top of this, I see nothing resembling an audited financial statement.  Proceed at your own, in my opinion extreme, risk.

While a P/E of 10 for a growth company is attractive as a normal investment, a 10 P/E ratio just isn't attractive at all in the world of bitcoin finance. The risks greatly bring down any reasonable P/E ratio, just look at any super high risk company on any major market. Those with growth are still prices in single digit P/Es most of the time. Bitcoin, as of right now, is much riskier than that, therefor companies based in bitcoin should have P/Es to match.

If the IPO had a reasonable valuation, I would give it more thought. Right now a 10 P/E is inappropriate for nearly any BTC based venture.

If SatoshiDICE future growth has so little risk and such high potential then why on earth is the owner selling equity instead of selling bonds?

This reminds me of the FeedZeBirds asset, which was also a profitable website and after the IPO they seemed to have stopped working on it without paying a single dividend, because other projects became more important  Roll Eyes

TL;DR S.DICE is overvalued - company should improve its management

I would love to have a pice of s.dice, but the deal sucks for everyone else except for you.
 And I can't see how the company would keep it's value when bitcoin rallies against the other currencies.. Sad thumbs down.

They handily dropped by, no need  Wink

Frankly, meh, if anyone wants to buy into SD at a >$3 million valuation on an exchange that shares its domain name with a porn/gore site, let them.

I wish them the best of luck finding buyers at that rate. I just don't think it's terribly likely that this IPO will be successful  Wink


LOL.... well... one of us is using our real world identity to conduct business, at least Wink  Who are you, again?

And LOL is a highly professional term, expressing humor across the web of space that divides us.

Someone that makes many times more than you without having to beg for monies on the forums. Do you really think exposing your real name makes you more respectable? In the real world all that matters is CASH MONEY. Same reason Matthew N. Wright Is a laughing stock with an orange ignore button and Pirate has 50 people defending him. Most profitable bitcoin business is a joke. Have you ever compared your profit to SR, exchanges, or similar? Good luck on your shitty IPO on that shitty exchange, though.

My train of thought after reading this thread...

Cool satoshiDice IPO..
Wow. way over priced, ~5 000 000 USD$ for this ? ... 10years to payout if nothing fail, or something better come out...
...would I even trust GLBSE ,,, Hmm,,

Then this  ... :
...
Admitedly, MPEx is a bit more complicated to use than GLBSE.

Here's the FAQ http://polimedia.us/bitcoin/faq.html[/url]

It's run by Mircea Popescu (you can contact him with questions: mircea_popescu on IRC  http://webchat.freenode.net/?channels=bitcoin-assets )
facepam moment
Quote from: FAQ
1. Dear Lord, what is this ?

    Yes, this is dog.

2. What is an MPSIC ?

    Short for Mircea Popescu Standard Identification Code. It's true that it's not very standard, but on the other hand it's very code-y, so it all evens out in the end....
Yeah yeah,,, fuck off , TLDR ... humor into stock exchanges documentation, R U fkin kiddin me ?

Then went to http://polimedia.us/ ...  Empty white site with a picture of gypsies...WTF ?

Then learn about 20btc fee,

/*insert slow clap meme here* /

This thread is a freakin' hoot.

and this MPEX place seems totally legit.

lmao

Meanwhile,

Quote
<mircea_popescu> !ticker s.dice
<assbot> [MPEX:S.DICE] 1day: 0.00449 / 0.00468334 / 0.00478919 (362534 shares, 1,697.87 BTC), 30day: 0.0014 / 0.00341561 / 0.0048 (14083889 shares, 48,105.09 BTC)

So here's the simple truth of the matter: someone sinking 1,000 BTC in S.DICE late August has meanwhile received 97.340735598 BTC in dividends and could have already sold his shares (if he wanted to) for (0.00468334/0.0032)*1000 = 1,463.54375 BTC. This all comes to a 56% return on investment, or 560.884485598 BTC in cold, hard liquid profit. Late August is just about twenty weeks ago.

Someone putting up 20 BTC and getting an MPEx account now has an account worth 30 BTC. That's a 50% ROI also.

You were wrong. All of you quoted here and all the others that I was too bored to fish out. You were wrong.

What now?

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January 09, 2013, 07:59:54 PM
 #2

Imagine an individual who constantly drives 80 mph in 30mph areas who gloats that they have never hit anyone and have never received a ticket. It does not make their action any less risky. The fact that they have never hit anyone or received a ticket does not make anyone who told them of the risks beforehand wrong.

All this post does is illustrate your lack of understanding towards risk.

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January 09, 2013, 08:01:46 PM
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BUT i would like to see those feet
MPOE-PR
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January 09, 2013, 08:15:59 PM
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Imagine an individual who constantly drives 80 mph in 30mph areas who gloats that they have never hit anyone and have never received a ticket. It does not make their action any less risky. The fact that they have never hit anyone or received a ticket does not make anyone who told them of the risks beforehand wrong.

All this post does is illustrate your lack of understanding towards risk.

Your analogy is moot, because the discussion was never whether a stock (in BTC or in any fiat, now or ever) will be productive for an infinite time interval.

The discussion was whether this particular one will be productive at all.

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January 09, 2013, 08:41:15 PM
 #5

Your analogy is moot, because the discussion was never whether a stock (in BTC or in any fiat, now or ever) will be productive for an infinite time interval.

The discussion was whether this particular one will be productive at all.

All you've done is illustrate the Greater Fool theory. These shares are ridiculously overvalued, and while the market can stay irrational longer than investors can stay solvent, the shares are no less overvalued.

Your insinuation that the stock will not be productive for a longer term interval also shows that you are aware of the ridiculous overvaluation of these shares and are in fact pushing a product on your exchange that you are certain will amount to taking money from your users given a long enough time frame. That sounds borderline scammish. Hardly worth kissing your feet. This post is almost certainly a red herring to shareholders that they should grab any profits they may have and run before reality comes knocking.
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January 09, 2013, 08:49:51 PM
 #6

I haven't actually looked at the contract, but were the above figures accurate that 3200BTC would buy 1% of the company during the IPO?
If so, wouldn't that imply that 1000BTC would buy 0.3125% of the company?
If 1000BTC (0.3125%) has returned 97.34BTC in divs in the last 20 weeks, that would be a total dividend payout of of about 31,500 BTC in less than half a year. Is SatoshiDice really that profitable?
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January 09, 2013, 08:50:45 PM
 #7

BUT i would like to see those feet

No you do not. Those feet are ugly. There was a picture posted.. brrrrr really ugly stuff.

Quote
PR - a promotion intended to create goodwill for a person or institution
MPOE-PR , you fail at your job every time you write something.

Quote
What now?
LOL, nothing really. I am happy it kept you busy for few hours and stopped you from spamming other forum threads.


While reading what I wrote, use the most friendliest and relaxing voice in your head.
BTW, Things in BTC bubble universes are getting ugly....
MPOE-PR
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January 09, 2013, 09:18:20 PM
 #8

Your insinuation that the stock will not be productive for a longer term interval also shows that you are aware of the ridiculous overvaluation of these shares and are in fact pushing a product on your exchange that you are certain will amount to taking money from your users given a long enough time frame.

I'm not making any such insinuation.

It is a point of fact that as the time interval considered approaches infinity, the probability of loss from any definite investment approaches one.

The discussion of the greater fool theory is again moot. We're not interested in explaining history. Whether this attempt is carried on in terms that are palatable or unpalatable it is equally irrelevant. We are simply interested in noticing that definite statements in the past have already been contradicted by definite events in the relative future, which meanwhile is also past. That is all. There's no finessing out of it, either.

This post is almost certainly a red herring to shareholders that they should grab any profits they may have and run before reality comes knocking.

Perhaps you should research the meanings of idiomatics before using them.

I haven't actually looked at the contract, but were the above figures accurate that 3200BTC would buy 1% of the company during the IPO?

Yes.

Is SatoshiDice really that profitable?

Yes.

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January 09, 2013, 09:45:23 PM
 #9

Do I need to explain the difference between long term and short term to you? Even the largest companies in the world have a large perceptual difference between their 52-week highs and lows respectively.

XOM high 21.4% above low
AAPL high 68.4 % above low

Looking at the share price proves nothing about the underlying business. So your great conclusion proves exactly nothing.
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January 09, 2013, 10:34:51 PM
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Do I need to explain the difference between long term and short term to you? Even the largest companies in the world have a large perceptual difference between their 52-week highs and lows respectively.

XOM high 21.4% above low
AAPL high 68.4 % above low

Looking at the share price proves nothing about the underlying business. So your great conclusion proves exactly nothing.

Here, have a graph to go with your very on topic observation.

There's a reason ASIC manufacturers promise delivery each month, as it passes, and I'm sure it has nothing to do with what "long term" means in BTC.

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January 09, 2013, 10:44:04 PM
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My reply was on topic. Your reply however has nothing whatsoever to do with my post (except that you quote it for some reason).
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January 09, 2013, 11:18:42 PM
Last edit: January 10, 2013, 02:37:44 AM by Korbman
 #12

I love how MPOE has been talking about how amazing Satoshi Dice is on their exchange. But I think I've had my fill...want to talk about all the other great stocks you host?

Oooohhhh...oohh wait...sorry, I forgot you don't have any Sad

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January 09, 2013, 11:55:13 PM
 #13

I love how MPOE has been talking about how amazing Satoshi Dice is on their exchange. But I think I've had my fill...want to talk about all the other great stocks you host?

Oooohhhh...oohh wait...sorry, I forgot you didn't have any Sad

Dun be a hater.

It's not often that Bitcoin actually has a public corp worth the mention. In fact, S.DICE is only the second in the history of this little experiment we call BTC. What'd you want me to do, not point out the obvious because some failures might get their feelings hurt?

Let them.

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January 10, 2013, 12:24:32 AM
 #14

Gotta say, it feels great to be a winner.
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January 10, 2013, 01:45:29 AM
 #15

Dun be a hater.

It's not often that Bitcoin actually has a public corp worth the mention. In fact, S.DICE is only the second in the history of this little experiment we call BTC. What'd you want me to do, not point out the obvious because some failures might get their feelings hurt?

Let them.

Ha, far from a hater. I respect that you have a good stock on your exchange. If only there was a way to convince evoorhees to move to another exchange...then your delusions of grandeur and superiority complex might finally end Tongue

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January 10, 2013, 02:05:44 AM
 #16

Your analogy is moot, because the discussion was never whether a stock (in BTC or in any fiat, now or ever) will be productive for an infinite time interval.

The discussion was whether this particular one will be productive at all.
I don't think anyone was arguing that there would never be a time when one could have sold one's original shares for a profit. The question is one of how much risk there is and whether it's likely that you could actually find the right time to sell it a profit. A similar argument a month before Pirate defaulted would have shown that investing in Pirate was a good idea.

Note that I'm making the strongest possible case in the opposite direction. The truth is in-between. Satoshi Dice is not like Pirate who never made any actual profits from any actual business activity and where the prospects for ever having an actual, legitimate return were always zero.


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January 10, 2013, 06:57:34 AM
 #17

The question is one of how much risk there is and whether it's likely that you could actually find the right time to sell it a profit.  ...  Note that I'm making the strongest possible case in the opposite direction. The truth is in-between. Satoshi Dice is not like Pirate who never made any actual profits from any actual business activity and where the prospects for ever having an actual, legitimate return were always zero.

Satoshi Dice is actually probably undervalued compared to the Aug/Sep timeframe MPOE-PR was referring to.

While not being a fan of the vices, this does present a fairly finance textbook example of a melt-up due to good news. Let me run through the analysis for the fun of it.

Although December had unusually high earnings of 3.2% (17,206.44888669 /537,375.97) the intriguing part is the strengthening of the SD balance sheet to the tune of about 28,000 BTC retained earnings.

To be conservative we will assume the public float dividend were doubled and paid out to the anonymous investor holding the other 90%. After all, the anonymous investor owns 9x more than the public float and would not want to jeopardize SD's solvency potentially having to shutter it due to bad luck and has probably not taken any dividends since they probably have plenty of cash from the IPO and could probably fly private wherever they want with this type of monthly cash-flow.

This leaves about 25,000 BTC of retained earnings which to exhaust would require about -4.795% negative luck on 550,000 BTC of bets compared to the Dec beginning retained earnings of -2.22%. Assuming the anonymous investor has taken no dividends then the luck probabilities change to -5.11% and -2.29%.

In other words, if you do the probability (some other math whiz can solve this if they feel particularly magnanimous) that SD will exhaust its RE's due to bad luck in the dice game and cease being a going concern then it reveals that solvency risk just plummeted massively causing an increase in the expected discounted future cash flows.





Everything else being equal, this additional 15,500 BTC of retained earnings, makes SD much safer of an investment with a much higher NPV which is already corrected for BTC exchange rate risk.

Consequently, a melt-up in the price is to be expected. What is fairly exceptional is that the issuer did not cancel the IPO's at .0037 or at least move the bid up; or maybe the anonymous investor bought them using some dividends. But that is neither here nor there, using a similar risk premium before Dec's earnings would put a price around at least .0075. So it will be interesting to see how long it takes to get there; assuming an average Jan luck.

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January 10, 2013, 08:12:45 AM
 #18

Ha, far from a hater. I respect that you have a good stock on your exchange. If only there was a way to convince evoorhees to move to another exchange...then your delusions of grandeur and superiority complex might finally end Tongue

Cheeky, aren't you.

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January 10, 2013, 08:23:46 AM
Last edit: January 10, 2013, 08:49:58 AM by EskimoBob
 #19

The question is one of how much risk there is and whether it's likely that you could actually find the right time to sell it a profit.  ...  Note that I'm making the strongest possible case in the opposite direction. The truth is in-between. Satoshi Dice is not like Pirate who never made any actual profits from any actual business activity and where the prospects for ever having an actual, legitimate return were always zero.

Satoshi Dice is actually probably undervalued compared to the Aug/Sep timeframe MPOE-PR was referring to.

While not being a fan of the vices, this does present a fairly finance textbook example of a melt-up due to good news. Let me run through the analysis for the fun of it.

Although December had unusually high earnings of 3.2% (17,206.44888669 /537,375.97) the intriguing part is the strengthening of the SD balance sheet to the tune of about 28,000 BTC retained earnings.

To be conservative we will assume the public float dividend were doubled and paid out to the anonymous investor holding the other 90%. After all, the anonymous investor owns 9x more than the public float and would not want to jeopardize SD's solvency potentially having to shutter it due to bad luck and has probably not taken any dividends since they probably have plenty of cash from the IPO and could probably fly private wherever they want with this type of monthly cash-flow.

This leaves about 25,000 BTC of retained earnings which to exhaust would require about -4.795% negative luck on 550,000 BTC of bets compared to the Dec beginning retained earnings of -2.22%. Assuming the anonymous investor has taken no dividends then the luck probabilities change to -5.11% and -2.29%.

I was under impression, that those 90Mil shares held by evorhees and someone else (evorheese) are the same type shares as the ones he sold to the market from his private stash.
If I recall correctly, if a company decides to pay divs of X% of net income, then all the shares will get the divs. If one shareholder refuses to pick up the dividends and asks the coin to be left on a corporate accounts, this will not be called retained earnings. This is more like money owned to investor X and it will not be part of the shareholders' equity on the balance sheet.
If this really happened, the rest of your analysis can not be correct because you magically converted unpaid coin to the shareholders equity.
If S.DICE 90% is held in another type/name of stock, the yes, Co can decide to pay % of net earnings to divs only for S.DICE holders but not to S.DICE-B. so you will have retained earnings to work with, but this is not the case here.
Feel free to correct me.

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BTW, Things in BTC bubble universes are getting ugly....
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January 10, 2013, 08:30:08 AM
 #20

The issue here is not whether or not S. Dice is profitable, or investing the stock is/was profitable.

The real issue is that MPOE-PR has taken credit for the success of S. Dice!

So arrogant! So absurd! So absurdly arrogant! So typical!

MPOE-PR at his finest!


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