Diff thread Feb 7 to Feb 19? picks are closed.

[philipma1957]

+11.2 = tekno

picks have been closed for hours.

[1714630084]

1714630084

[radiumsoup]

missed me

+25.5 = radiumsoup

[philipma1957]

-50.0 = Dekker3D

-1.2 = philipma1957 ____  I am hoping for a natural disaster to destroy all the new farms

+16.7 = HerbPean
+17.0 = adaseb
+17.7 = Kexkey ---------- corrected my miss
+18.7 = tertius993

+19.0 = vapourminer
+19.5 = wlefever
+19.8 = Biodom
+20.2 = edonkey
+20.5 = Brob12321
+20.6 = Ab-Soul  ------------------ got it now
+20.7 = Zz
+20.8 = tss
+21.0 = dukeneptun
+21.2 = Dexter770221 -------- corrected from 21.21
+21.3 = DanDan
+21.6 = sanandreas
+21.7 = RichBC
+21.9 = zebedee
+22.0 = Amph
+22.1 = ACAB
+22.2 = Valkir
+22.3 = lanfeusst
+22.4 = alh
+22.5 = redhack
+22.7 = DrG
+23.0 = ezeminer
+23.2 = Notlist3d
+23.5 = indiemax
+24.4 = Chris_Sabian

+24.9 = cakir
+25.0 = Last of the V8s
+25.5 = radiumsoup --------------- corrected my miss

+26.1 = blindminer


+27.0 = psi
+27.1 = flikflak

+27.7 = Mikestang

+28.0 = icey            +28 for me     Smiley  = wrong    @ icey please correct post

+29.0 = alfacro


+30.0 = ingiltere


+33.0 = pusttiu


final picks are above.  note I missed Kexkey and radiumsoup

[notlist3d]

Price is over 400.  It's currently around 405...if only we could have a jump for more.   With this change and one before it, it's almost like having due to how much hash has been added.  Which I just find as crazy, I know none of my ROI models had 40+ difficulty in 2 periods when we go back a few month's when I did them.

I'm really hoping that we see a big jump.  Little jumps are nice but don't help much when difficulty jumps so much more.

[RichBC]

Good to be back over $400, would like to see it back over £300 now.  However looking a bit tenuous at the moment.

The Hash Rate seems to have dropped off a bit and there is a Down-wood trend that has emerged over the last 3 Days. If this continues at the same rate we will end up around +15% but all depends on whether some more Hash is put up at some point.?


Rich

[Zudalar]

Good to be back over $400, would like to see it back over £300 now.  However looking a bit tenuous at the moment.

The Hash Rate seems to have dropped off a bit and there is a Down-wood trend that has emerged over the last 3 Days. If this continues at the same rate we will end up around +15% but all depends on whether some more Hash is put up at some point.?


Rich

The hash rate drop could be due to the adjustment of the miners by big farm. I think the difficulty will keep on rising.

[philipma1957]

on jan 21 we had a 131 block day

since that day the two lowest block days have been 151 and 150

so for Jan 22 to Feb 14 we have  had an amazing run.

[adaseb]

So if the diff is +16.6% or less, Herbean automatically wins since he chose the closest ?

[Mikestang]

Price is over 400.  It's currently around 405...if only we could have a jump for more.

I've noticed that it's held over $400 for the past two day, was $405.11 when I checked this morning.  Still a strong price, but I would have expected the price to track more with difficulty.  Why can't we get 20% bumps in price every couple weeks?

[adaseb]

Price is over 400.  It's currently around 405...if only we could have a jump for more.

I've noticed that it's held over $400 for the past two day, was $405.11 when I checked this morning.  Still a strong price, but I would have expected the price to track more with difficulty.  Why can't we get 20% bumps in price every couple weeks?

]


Price and Difficulty are not related in anyway. Look at 2014.

[philipma1957]

So if the diff is +16.6% or less, Herbean automatically wins since he chose the closest ?

no we are doing 1 carry over to .2 prize level

.  I would prefer letting it carry over but when we got to .3 and then .4 we attracted 3 or four attempts to game the system.

So for now I am maxing prize at .2 then the closest wins.

 

    As an aside We have .8 to give away.  that is 16 weeks which gets us close to the ½ing.

 I may add a little more to the giveaway funds if we need to as I would like this contest to reach the ½ing.

[notlist3d]

So if the diff is +16.6% or less, Herbean automatically wins since he chose the closest ?

no we are doing 1 carry over to .2 prize level

.  I would prefer letting it carry over but when we got to .3 and then .4 we attracted 3 or four attempts to game the system.

So for now I am maxing prize at .2 then the closest wins.

 

    As an aside We have .8 to give away.  that is 16 weeks which gets us close to the ½ing.

 I may add a little more to the giveaway funds if we need to as I would like this contest to reach the ½ing.

Thanks for doing it.  It's always fun to do even though I have not won yet .

I really do like the carry over system vs closest.  Just makes it a lot more unknown on winner an amount.    But I agree the higher the price the more people will try to game.  You might do something like if carry over is above .3 only people with guesses the previous week can pick.  Would work good stopping some of the gaming, bad thing is it stops people who forgot to put one in or missed it previous week.

[adaseb]

So if the diff is +16.6% or less, Herbean automatically wins since he chose the closest ?

no we are doing 1 carry over to .2 prize level

.  I would prefer letting it carry over but when we got to .3 and then .4 we attracted 3 or four attempts to game the system.

So for now I am maxing prize at .2 then the closest wins.

 

    As an aside We have .8 to give away.  that is 16 weeks which gets us close to the ½ing.

 I may add a little more to the giveaway funds if we need to as I would like this contest to reach the ½ing.

I think you got your wish and some farm burned down.

[RichBC]

Well another relatively placid +5.5% 152 Block day Yesterday. Not at all sure what is going on here but 4 Days ago the run rate for the period peaked at +20% and since then has been pulling back. We are now at +15% and if this trend continues we could end up around +13%.

Rich

[notlist3d]

Well another relatively placid +5.5% 152 Block day Yesterday. Not at all sure what is going on here but 4 Days ago the run rate for the period peaked at +20% and since then has been pulling back. We are now at +15% and if this trend continues we could end up around +13%.

Rich

Interesting I would not have seen this coming.  And it happened after Chinese New Years, which is opposite as I thought.  I thought Chinese New Year would slow down speeds but it seems we had more if anything.

Bitwisdom is going down:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:    168,104,132,762 (+16.64%)
Adjust time:    After 494 Blocks, About 3.0 days
Hashrate(?):    1,106,477,610 GH/s

*Edit... have possible scary idea on reason on drop

Batch 10 ship time: ANTMINER S7 BATCH 10 - Shipped out from Feb. 16~20
Currently in China:  4:47 PM ish  Tuesday, February 16, 2016

So think they had employees going through data center and pulling mines to ship out soon?   That could explain a drop... and I hope I'm wrong on it.

[RichBC]

I think it's a good theory, makes sense and fits with what we have seen over the last few Days.

Rich

[notlist3d]

I think it's a good theory, makes sense and fits with what we have seen over the last few Days.

Rich

It fit's it pretty darn good to.  They left mining till after Holiday then they started boxing and getting ready to ship.  Hard to tell how many they did lowest price yet 2.1 BTC or around 850.   

They also might have some big bulk customer's to look at PCFLI - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1283287.240 .  Seems his order was held onto till after holiday's.   So small customers an big likely had this in my theory.

Now comes question on if this is true how quick can they fill up the spots with newly produced gear, and do another batch.  Pretty smart for them do a "burn in" test and make good money, then sell and instant make ROI on miners.  Seems like Bitmain cannot lose right now.

[d57heinz]

I think it's a good theory, makes sense and fits with what we have seen over the last few Days.

Rich

It fit's it pretty darn good to.  They left mining till after Holiday then they started boxing and getting ready to ship.  Hard to tell how many they did lowest price yet 2.1 BTC or around 850.  

They also might have some big bulk customer's to look at PCFLI - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1283287.240 .  Seems his order was held onto till after holiday's.   So small customers an big likely had this in my theory.

Now comes question on if this is true how quick can they fill up the spots with newly produced gear, and do another batch.  Pretty smart for them do a "burn in" test and make good money, then sell and instant make ROI on miners.  Seems like Bitmain cannot lose right now.

Damn if thats true.. that is scary because we dropped off about 100 - 150 ph/s..  if that is one batch that makes sense on the increases we have seen thus far(approx 80 ph per batch.. i think the first ones were smaller batches and now they are selling them as fast as they can be produced) im sure the first batches were smaller in sales but all those that bought had to rebuy just to continue making what they were 2 months ago.. So really i think this theory is solid!. and this is totally driven by bitmain alone.  i think avalon is too high priced and bitfury increased but only from about 60 ph to 120 or so now.  unbelievable!



Best Regards
d57heinz


Edit>> what i like to see if someone has a list of the dates when bitmain was to ship its miners on the previous batches.. Be nice to see if we can see a correlation in hashrate drop on the network with the expected ship date.

[philipma1957]

Well another relatively placid +5.5% 152 Block day Yesterday. Not at all sure what is going on here but 4 Days ago the run rate for the period peaked at +20% and since then has been pulling back. We are now at +15% and if this trend continues we could end up around +13%.

Rich

Interesting I would not have seen this coming.  And it happened after Chinese New Years, which is opposite as I thought.  I thought Chinese New Year would slow down speeds but it seems we had more if anything.

Bitwisdom is going down:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:    168,104,132,762 (+16.64%)
Adjust time:    After 494 Blocks, About 3.0 days
Hashrate(?):    1,106,477,610 GH/s

*Edit... have possible scary idea on reason on drop

Batch 10 ship time: ANTMINER S7 BATCH 10 - Shipped out from Feb. 16~20
Currently in China:  4:47 PM ish  Tuesday, February 16, 2016

So think they had employees going through data center and pulling mines to ship out soon?   That could explain a drop... and I hope I'm wrong on it.

It does not account for 150ph hash drop maybe
  1/5  to ½  o r  25 ph 75ph

My guess is some  of the drop is what you said. And the rest is the zero to one cent power deal has ended.

I had a few ideas of how they could get free power or super low cost power. My thought was they would be able to have longer deal with the super cheap power.

If they have a mobile load tester in the form of ten tractor trailers the current dam in China has decided the dam works and they do not need the load testing service.
The good thing is hash will be a little lower short term but the reality is they gear is "in the field"

So if  we are +17% the truth is we have +25%.

Or we are not 1200ph we are 1300ph to 1350ph with part shipping and part waiting to test another dam.

 there are 5 or 6 big dams being built in china.  So driving a ten to twenty tractor trailers to test the new dam can mean a new spike.
Either way  the real hashrate is around 1350ph.

No question bitmaintech is bigger then anyone.

[HerbPean]

This is quite funny how much we didn't see that drop coming at the end of this diff. I was sure we would see at least a constant hashrate with no drop at all or even some minor or major increase.

I speculated an avg of 1210 petahash for this Diff and I was the lower guess in the list. A big surprise for me.

Unless someone throw back all the gear that went offline, this will be a rollover !

My past experience makes me guess a push during the last 24 hours or at the start of the new diff. (But hey, this is pure speculation)

Let's enjoy this small breathing time... it's like a small victory in a +15 diff increase... /sarcrams