Diff thread Feb 7 to Feb 19? picks are closed.

[ingiltere]

Are picks open now?

Bitcoin Difficulty:   144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:   176,260,605,764 (+22.30%)
Adjust time:   After 1377 Blocks, About 8.4 days
Hashrate(?):   1,170,946,689 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.8 minutes
3 blocks: 26.2 minutes
6 blocks: 52.5 minutes

[1714642240]

1714642240

[1714642240]

1714642240

[1714642240]

1714642240

[Mikestang]

No wonder it's so hot outside right now, it's the heat from all the miners being turned on around the world!  200G difficulty here we come!

We should start a thread where everyone buys in and guesses the difficulty at the halving, closest without going over wins the pot.

[notlist3d]

Are picks open now?

Bitcoin Difficulty:   144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:   176,260,605,764 (+22.30%)
Adjust time:   After 1377 Blocks, About 8.4 days
Hashrate(?):   1,170,946,689 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.8 minutes
3 blocks: 26.2 minutes
6 blocks: 52.5 minutes

22 percent ouch... this one is going to hurt again no doubt.  BTC up just a bit at 380 so no huge jump but at least not going down.

I really think value is just as big of issue as difficulty.  We need more value from coins to keep a lot of operations going.  I downsized some as current profits on old gen I just was making to little.  It made for some great deals for free/super cheap electricity.   I also sold a few current and have some cash if it drops... I jump in with it.   But if not eventually I buy more miners again with it.  

So changed my position just a little to see what next few weeks do.  I wanted some cash to invest out of my mining operations if there is drop.

[Kexkey]

We should start a thread where everyone buys in and guesses the difficulty at the halving, closest without going over wins the pot.

Haha!  I think next 6-9 months are unpredictable.  Particularly next 5 months, with new miners, blocks reward halving, (hopefully) blocksize-limit-drama getting fixed and scalability tweaks being implemented, it's so hard to predict what's going to happen with the difficulty as well as on the bitcoin price.

Your thread would be a gamblers thread. 

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:   176,328,234,415 (+22.35%)
Adjust time:   After 1346 Blocks, About 8.2 days >>>>>>>>>> we open at 1216
Hashrate(?):   1,192,065,789 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.7 minutes
3 blocks: 26.2 minutes
6 blocks: 52.4 minutes
Updated:   23:5 (4.2 minutes ago)

good luck  but this is a no brainer  as +16% is optimistic

[adaseb]

[Last of the V8s]

Bitcoin Difficulty:    144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:    177,297,312,222 (+23.02%)
Adjust time:    After 1311 Blocks, About 7.9 days
Hashrate(?):    1,207,621,354 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 8.7 minutes

brutal

so do we open after 1416 to go as in 1st post or 1216 as just now? think it's justa typo...

[skuser]

Breakeven point for S7 like machine with purchase costs at $100/THs,5 cents electricity, and 150 days ROI (till halving) is somewhere at 1.5 exahash. If the hardware producers can setup one THs at costs of about $50, which I believe they can, breakeven point moves to 2.3 exahash, about 300mil in difficulty terms. Plenty of space.

[notlist3d]

Thank for taking screenshot that shows about how I feel.  Holy crap.... that should not be able to even happen.  Ouch on network size feels like it has growing pains seeing so many so quick.... some people sending transaction would have got quickest confirmations ever if someone was waiting on payment.

[RichBC]

Yes it always seems to me that Hash that get's added during the Day in China (8 Hours ahead of GMT / UK time) shows up as a big increase in the Daily rate when I first look in the Morning.

Today's run rate, with far too blocks to judge at the moment, is sky high at +50%. It will settle to a lower level, there will be some longer Block times, but I think a fair amount more Hash has been added this Morning....


Rich

[notlist3d]

Yes it always seems to me that Hash that get's added during the Day in China (8 Hours ahead of GMT / UK time) shows up as a big increase in the Daily rate when I first look in the Morning.

Today's run rate, with far too blocks to judge at the moment, is sky high at +50%. It will settle to a lower level, there will be some longer Block times, but I think a fair amount more Hash has been added this Morning....


Rich

Your point about happening during China day is troubling.  I thought the China new year would slow it down for a few day's but seems I have been wrong.  How serious does China take holiday's such as this at factories?  I'm starting to wonder some big BTC ones worked through it.

Wish we had people near these BTC miner factories to tell us info from there.   Seems to be  a lot of secrecy in it.

[RichBC]

Your point about happening during China day is troubling.  I thought the China new year would slow it down for a few day's but seems I have been wrong.  How serious does China take holiday's such as this at factories?  I'm starting to wonder some big BTC ones worked through it.

Wish we had people near these BTC miner factories to tell us info from there.   Seems to be  a lot of secrecy in it.

From what I know it's a very big event, I usually get an email from a couple of people I buy from in China reminding me that there will be no response / emails during CNY. The Festival is officially 23 days long but I suspect  the workers in the "Mines" are back well before then.


Rich

[philipma1957]

Yep I am getting old

picks were supposed to open at 600 and close at 1200


that would be 2016 -  600 = 1416 for open

and  2016 - 1200 = 816 for close

for some reason unknown to myself (at 59 too old is a poor reason)

I was thinking we start at 1216

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:   176,853,772,569 (+22.72%)
Adjust time:   After 1284 Blocks, About 7.7 days    >> I  should have said 1416 not 1216
Hashrate(?):   1,207,789,669 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.7 minutes
3 blocks: 25.9 minutes
6 blocks: 51.9 minutes
Updated:   7:10 (1.4 minutes ago)

This contest will be started at 1216.
So since I made a moron mistake
 I will toss in an extra something for the prize.
It will end at 816 so the end time will be the same.

We have 23 blocks to go.

[HerbPean]

So since I made a moron mistake
 I will toss in an extra something for the prize.
It will end at 816 so the end time will be the same.

We have 23 blocks to go.

Phil, don't be rude with yourself. There is no big deal about it.

We all do mistake ;-)

[Mikestang]

"If you never make mistakes then you are not on the frontier of discovery, for there is where mistakes are made all the time."
-Neil deGrasse Tyson

[philipma1957]

"If you never make mistakes then you are not on the frontier of discovery, for there is where mistakes are made all the time."
-Neil deGrasse Tyson

Pluto is a planet!!




and we have 7 blocks to start picks

[adaseb]

Today looks like its going to be another record breaking day. Currently we are at +40%, so with the +20% increase last week this is major hashpower.

[RichBC]

Yep I am getting old

picks were supposed to open at 600 and close at 1200


that would be 2016 -  600 = 1416 for open

and  2016 - 1200 = 816 for close

for some reason unknown to myself (at 59 too old is a poor reason)

I was thinking we start at 1216

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:   176,853,772,569 (+22.72%)
Adjust time:   After 1284 Blocks, About 7.7 days    >> I  should have said 1416 not 1216
Hashrate(?):   1,207,789,669 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.7 minutes
3 blocks: 25.9 minutes
6 blocks: 51.9 minutes
Updated:   7:10 (1.4 minutes ago)

This contest will be started at 1216.
So since I made a moron mistake
 I will toss in an extra something for the prize.
It will end at 816 so the end time will be the same.

We have 23 blocks to go.

OK I am completely confused about when Picks open & Close?  In terms of Block Numbers I had expected.
 
Open Block Number 397751 (Which was ages ago)
Close Block Number 398351

Am I right in thinking that we are now?

Open Block Number 397951
Close Block Number 398351


Rich

[HerbPean]

"If you never make mistakes then you are not on the frontier of discovery, for there is where mistakes are made all the time."
-Neil deGrasse Tyson

Yeah I saw that tweet this week.

It's a good one, I like Neil !

[philipma1957]

Yep I am getting old

picks were supposed to open at 600 and close at 1200


that would be 2016 -  600 = 1416 for open

and  2016 - 1200 = 816 for close

for some reason unknown to myself (at 59 too old is a poor reason)

I was thinking we start at 1216

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:   176,853,772,569 (+22.72%)
Adjust time:   After 1284 Blocks, About 7.7 days    >> I  should have said 1416 not 1216
Hashrate(?):   1,207,789,669 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.7 minutes
3 blocks: 25.9 minutes
6 blocks: 51.9 minutes
Updated:   7:10 (1.4 minutes ago)

This contest will be started at 1216.
So since I made a moron mistake
 I will toss in an extra something for the prize.
It will end at 816 so the end time will be the same.

We have 23 blocks to go.

OK I am completely confused about when Picks open & Close?   In terms of Block Numbers I had expected.
 
Open Block Number 397751 (Which was ages ago)
Close Block Number 398351

Am I right in thinking that we are now?

Open Block Number 397951
Close Block Number 398351


Rich

1216 blocks to go means block number 397951 for the start

816 blocks to go means block number 398351 for the end


Now you got me going  397952 for the start translates to 1216 on bitcoinwisdom