280 BTC total bets between Micon and mrb (are BFL ASICs real?)

[Micon]

do you have any interest on gambling with odds on an earlier date?  

how about your 100 coins vs. my 150
date: 5/15
same terms 3x non-BFL reports&  1 device 350Mh/J+

No, thanks. It is too uncertain whether BFL can ship by 5/15 or not. However I would consider doubling or tripling our current bet, if we push the date to Sep 30, 2013 (1 year after the original shipping date!) while keeping all other conditions as is.

willing to talk bet right now if you'd like MrB.  I think I can work with you on a date to make a new, larger wager.

How about:

100 coin bet
3+ "trusted" forum members who have never been to BFL offices in Kansas report with pix rec'ving device in mail and posting pix-proof it it hashing at 350+ Mh/J
Date:  6/1/2013
Same escrow setup as before, different pair of codes & different hash to keep things clean.

If anyone other than mrb is interested in betting on BFL shipping dates, holler at me.

[1715234453]

1715234453

[1715234453]

1715234453

[haitispaceagency]

who won

[cAPSLOCK]

who won

It seems it aint that simple yet...

[mrb]

willing to talk bet right now if you'd like MrB.  I think I can work with you on a date to make a new, larger wager.

How about:

100 coin bet
3+ "trusted" forum members who have never been to BFL offices in Kansas report with pix rec'ving device in mail and posting pix-proof it it hashing at 350+ Mh/J
Date:  6/1/2013
Same escrow setup as before, different pair of codes & different hash to keep things clean.

I am not sure BFL can ship by June 1st...

[Micon]

willing to talk bet right now if you'd like MrB.  I think I can work with you on a date to make a new, larger wager.

How about:

100 coin bet
3+ "trusted" forum members who have never been to BFL offices in Kansas report with pix rec'ving device in mail and posting pix-proof it it hashing at 350+ Mh/J
Date:  6/1/2013
Same escrow setup as before, different pair of codes & different hash to keep things clean.

I am not sure BFL can ship by June 1st...

what is your date that you would bet me 1:1 on?

[SgtSpike]

Micon - I would like to offer you the opportunity to buy out of our bet for 5 BTC.  So, of the 40 BTC we bet, I receive 35 BTC, you receive 5 BTC, and we call off the bet.  I doubt you'll take me up on this, but you never know, so... there's the offer. 

[Micon]

Micon - I would like to offer you the opportunity to buy out of our bet for 5 BTC.  So, of the 40 BTC we bet, I receive 35 BTC, you receive 5 BTC, and we call off the bet.  I doubt you'll take me up on this, but you never know, so... there's the offer. 

Wow if you are that confident lets bet more on it, then u can sell those bets too.  Will do up to 100 coins more on it

[SgtSpike]

Micon - I would like to offer you the opportunity to buy out of our bet for 5 BTC.  So, of the 40 BTC we bet, I receive 35 BTC, you receive 5 BTC, and we call off the bet.  I doubt you'll take me up on this, but you never know, so... there's the offer. 

Wow if you are that confident lets bet more on it, then u can sell those bets too.  Will do up to 100 coins more on it

No, the idea is to REDUCE the gamble, not increase it!

[Micon]

Micon - I would like to offer you the opportunity to buy out of our bet for 5 BTC.  So, of the 40 BTC we bet, I receive 35 BTC, you receive 5 BTC, and we call off the bet.  I doubt you'll take me up on this, but you never know, so... there's the offer. 

Wow if you are that confident lets bet more on it, then u can sell those bets too.  Will do up to 100 coins more on it

No, the idea is to REDUCE the gamble, not increase it!

 Lemme get this straight - you think you are going to easily win but wont bet more on it?

[SgtSpike]

Micon - I would like to offer you the opportunity to buy out of our bet for 5 BTC.  So, of the 40 BTC we bet, I receive 35 BTC, you receive 5 BTC, and we call off the bet.  I doubt you'll take me up on this, but you never know, so... there's the offer. 

Wow if you are that confident lets bet more on it, then u can sell those bets too.  Will do up to 100 coins more on it

No, the idea is to REDUCE the gamble, not increase it!

 Lemme get this straight - you think you are going to easily win but wont bet more on it?

Yes.  It is too much money to gamble with.  I am not much of a gambling man.  $200 was a reasonable gamble.  $10,000 is not.  And even though I do believe there is a very good chance BFL will deliver by July 1st, the small chance that they might not is killing me.

[Peleus]

If I may suggest if the price has gone from $200 to $10000, a suggestion of reducing the bet may be more reasonable. Clearly each of you still think you're +EV to win, so I doubt a buyout one way or the other would work.

For example if you both went from 20 BTC on both sides to 2 BTC on each side, you'd be essentially doubling the bet in fiat terms from the original, but lowering your exposure now.

Saying that - Micon seems to have the risk tolerance to bet that big while SgtSpike doesn't (nothing wrong with that), so it would mean Micon has to agree to lower what he perceives to be +EV gain for the sake of being nice. Wouldn't blame him if he didn't.

Obviously up to you guys what you do though

[Micon]

If I may suggest if the price has gone from $200 to $10000, a suggestion of reducing the bet may be more reasonable. Clearly each of you still think you're +EV to win, so I doubt a buyout one way or the other would work.

For example if you both went from 20 BTC on both sides to 2 BTC on each side, you'd be essentially doubling the bet in fiat terms from the original, but lowering your exposure now.

Saying that - Micon seems to have the risk tolerance to bet that big while SgtSpike doesn't (nothing wrong with that), so it would mean Micon has to agree to lower what he perceives to be +EV gain for the sake of being nice. Wouldn't blame him if he didn't.

Obviously up to you guys what you do though

pretty much all the fun for me in these bets is firing something relatively small and then all the sudden have some really big wager on something you originally were confident in.

there will certainly be no reductions of wagers & I'm actively trying to bet more.

Micon - I would like to offer you the opportunity to buy out of our bet for 5 BTC.  So, of the 40 BTC we bet, I receive 35 BTC, you receive 5 BTC, and we call off the bet.  I doubt you'll take me up on this, but you never know, so... there's the offer. 

Wow if you are that confident lets bet more on it, then u can sell those bets too.  Will do up to 100 coins more on it

No, the idea is to REDUCE the gamble, not increase it!

 Lemme get this straight - you think you are going to easily win but wont bet more on it?

Yes.  It is too much money to gamble with.  I am not much of a gambling man.  $200 was a reasonable gamble.  $10,000 is not.  And even though I do believe there is a very good chance BFL will deliver by July 1st, the small chance that they might not is killing me.

Now I think I understand.  Judging by how this thread went:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=171479.0  it appears that you want to salvage whatever equity you currently have in this bet, as 40 coins is now a large sum. 

Instead of offering something insulting, when this situation arises in the gambling world the guy that appears to be losing asks for a buyout.   Sometimes they come to terms and the bet is settled early. 

Of course we're all greedy humans, but you couldn't really think I was going to take a price as if BFL had uploaded pix of Josh driving all 500 units each day to the post office.  And you *really* couldn't think that someone would buy your bet instead of betting me fresh.  I'm posting everywhere that I want an extra 100 coins on this.  With me they would bet 30 coins to win 30 coins.  with you they would bet 30 coins to win 10 coins.

[SgtSpike]

If I may suggest if the price has gone from $200 to $10000, a suggestion of reducing the bet may be more reasonable. Clearly each of you still think you're +EV to win, so I doubt a buyout one way or the other would work.

For example if you both went from 20 BTC on both sides to 2 BTC on each side, you'd be essentially doubling the bet in fiat terms from the original, but lowering your exposure now.

Saying that - Micon seems to have the risk tolerance to bet that big while SgtSpike doesn't (nothing wrong with that), so it would mean Micon has to agree to lower what he perceives to be +EV gain for the sake of being nice. Wouldn't blame him if he didn't.

Obviously up to you guys what you do though

pretty much all the fun for me in these bets is firing something relatively small and then all the sudden have some really big wager on something you originally were confident in.

there will certainly be no reductions of wagers & I'm actively trying to bet more.

Micon - I would like to offer you the opportunity to buy out of our bet for 5 BTC.  So, of the 40 BTC we bet, I receive 35 BTC, you receive 5 BTC, and we call off the bet.  I doubt you'll take me up on this, but you never know, so... there's the offer. 

Wow if you are that confident lets bet more on it, then u can sell those bets too.  Will do up to 100 coins more on it

No, the idea is to REDUCE the gamble, not increase it!

 Lemme get this straight - you think you are going to easily win but wont bet more on it?

Yes.  It is too much money to gamble with.  I am not much of a gambling man.  $200 was a reasonable gamble.  $10,000 is not.  And even though I do believe there is a very good chance BFL will deliver by July 1st, the small chance that they might not is killing me.

Now I think I understand.  Judging by how this thread went:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=171479.0  it appears that you want to salvage whatever equity you currently have in this bet, as 40 coins is now a large sum. 

Instead of offering something insulting, when this situation arises in the gambling world the guy that appears to be losing asks for a buyout.   Sometimes they come to terms and the bet is settled early. 

Of course we're all greedy humans, but you couldn't really think I was going to take a price as if BFL had uploaded pix of Josh driving all 500 units each day to the post office.  And you *really* couldn't think that someone would buy your bet instead of betting me fresh.  I'm posting everywhere that I want an extra 100 coins on this.  With me they would bet 30 coins to win 30 coins.  with you they would bet 30 coins to win 10 coins.

Yep - now that you've posted your 1:1 bet on the same terms that we have our bet under, it is pointless for me to try to mitigate that risk by selling it off to anyone.

[CrazyGuy]

1:1 bet on sgt spike terms and I'm in for 5 BTC. They deliver 3 units by July 1st at Avalon or better power ratio.

[mrb]

SgtSpike: I am willing to buy you out.

I am incredibly busy right now, and do not have time to look up all the details, but can you confirm that Micon vs. you is the same bet as Micon vs. me, except the power requirement which is 150+ Mhash/J (Micon vs. you) instead of 350+ Mhash/J (Micon vs. me) ? If that is the case, yes I will definitely buy your 20 BTC share.

Micon: after I buy SgtSpike out, I can add more coins.

[Micon]

1:1 bet on sgt spike terms and I'm in for 5 BTC. They deliver 3 units by July 1st at Avalon or better power ratio.

SgtSpike: I am willing to buy you out.

I am incredibly busy right now, and do not have time to look up all the details, but can you confirm that Micon vs. you is the same bet as Micon vs. me, except the power requirement which is 150+ Mhash/J (Micon vs. you) instead of 350+ Mhash/J (Micon vs. me) ? If that is the case, yes I will definitely buy your 20 BTC share.

Micon: after I buy SgtSpike out, I can add more coins.

some1 get me an escrow!   

I feel bad making Mike do it. 

is there no1 else we trust that knows how to generate btc-address escrow codes?

[Eisenhower34]

Fact:  No BFL will make up for the money they payed for their ASICs.

Check the difficulty increase and anticipate a much bigger one when the new Avalons role out. Also take into calculation that avalon will mine first with their product before releasing them and also keep some of their asics back for personal use. You will have to mine a year or longer to get your initial investment back and you dont know how long those asics will run before they break apart.

The only ones who made money out of this project are those who have Avalons batch#1 and batch#2 and those who sold their Avalon Miners shares for a huge profit to the community. (noone who bought those shares for $2 / GH will make any money too)

[creativex]

Also take into calculation that avalon will mine first with their product before releasing them and also keep some of their asics back for personal use.

Source?

[SgtSpike]

SgtSpike: I am willing to buy you out.

I am incredibly busy right now, and do not have time to look up all the details, but can you confirm that Micon vs. you is the same bet as Micon vs. me, except the power requirement which is 150+ Mhash/J (Micon vs. you) instead of 350+ Mhash/J (Micon vs. me) ? If that is the case, yes I will definitely buy your 20 BTC share.

Micon: after I buy SgtSpike out, I can add more coins.

Mrb, thanks for the offer.  After talking to my wife, we have decided to keep the bet full on!

Fact:  No BFL will make up for the money they payed for their ASICs.

Check the difficulty increase and anticipate a much bigger one when the new Avalons role out. Also take into calculation that avalon will mine first with their product before releasing them and also keep some of their asics back for personal use. You will have to mine a year or longer to get your initial investment back and you dont know how long those asics will run before they break apart.

The only ones who made money out of this project are those who have Avalons batch#1 and batch#2 and those who sold their Avalon Miners shares for a huge profit to the community. (noone who bought those shares for $2 / GH will make any money too)

Maybe speaking in terms of USD, but in terms of BTC, all the ASICs they (and Avalon) will be shipping will be wildly profitable.

[mrb]

SgtSpike: ok. Have you considered the possibility that the bubble might pop before July 1st? You might want to get 20 BTC now rather than 40 BTC later. As they say, 1 bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush