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Author Topic: [NO LONGER SELLING] 40 BTC Bet with Micon regarding BFL  (Read 1483 times)
SgtSpike
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April 09, 2013, 04:22:54 PM
 #1

When I first made my bet with Micon, BTCs were worth maybe just a hair over $10.  $200 is an amount I am fully willing to bet on something I think is a sure thing, so I didn't think much of putting 20 BTC down on the bet.

Now, BTC is worth over $200, and that 40 BTC (total bet) is just too much for me to gamble with.  That's more money than I have ever really had.  I still very much believe BFL will deliver, but not having that money in-hand is eating me away...

So, I would like to sell my bet with Micon, if anyone is interested.  The agreed-upon details are below, but the essence of the bet is, as long as BFL beats Avalon's power figures and delivers by July 1st, the bet is won.

I think 35 30 BTC is fair (a free 10 BTC to anyone who thinks BFL will deliver by July 1st), but am open to offers as well.  The buyer will receive the Casascius-generated escrow code that I have, and a post in the "official" bet thread that this bet has been transferred over.

No Micon, I do not want to make the same bet you and MRB made.  That bet is also based on whether they meet specific MH/Joule requirements, which I do not want to bet on.  I want to bet on them delivering an ASIC device that works (creates valid hashes for the Bitcoin network) by the end of 2013, regardless of speed or power usage to at least two forum members that prove they are running (video or pictures or ??).

If you believe they aren't going to deliver (which is what you keep stating over and over again), you shouldn't have any problem with this.

When making a wager, both sides must agree.  If you look at mrb's and my discussion, a standard practice is to suggest terms, then refine on both sides until both parties agree.

To have a 20 coin bet with me I would like:

-- statement of a certain Mhash/Joule that proves that this BFL ASIC is a significant step up from the current top miners - that is the point of ASIC - to hash the proof-of-work problem much faster and more energy efficient than current FPGAs, as I understand it the current top dog - they claim ~ 20x-30x as fast right?  current FPGA top metrics around 25 Mhash/Joule?    Let's find a number you and I are both comfortable with it - as your statement reads, BFL could ship you some thumbdrive that creates 1 valid hash using your CPU and you would win the bet.

Also there is no need for taunting - I won't say to you "why won't you bet me at same terms if you are so sure BFL will ship an ASIC based on specs they describe?" - I will simply go back and forth and list out the terms that would make me accept the wager.

What about a statement such as 10x shipments at 5x current top Mhash/Joule ratings?   And excuse the newb-ness to mining, but what is top Mhash/J ATM?   it is FPGA cards?
Fair enough - I shall taunt no more.

I'll bet that BFL will put out at least as efficient as Avalon's advertised specs.  So that's 400w @ 60GH/s.  Is that agreeable?  It is a vast improvement over even FPGA's, where 60 GH/s would consume almost 6,000w.

I'd rather not go as high as 10 end customers, simply because it might be difficult to find 10 individuals willing to post proof of ASIC delivery.  I'm not sure that there's even 10 different people who have posted pictures of FPGA's.

So then, my new bet proposal is this:

I'll bet 20 BTC that BFL will ship out an ASIC miner capable of at least 150MH/s per watt to at least 3 end customers by the end of 2013.

You have a bet if you make it by 7/1/2013 - they said they ship in Feb. and I don't want to wait all year for this bet to settle.  Those 40 coins could be worth $10k by then and I may need a WSOP main even buy in Smiley

  I feel 7/1 is more than fair given the current timeframe directly from BFL, it keeps everything nice and clean for me, and even allows you months and months of further delays past their posted timeframe.  If BFL is real, this seems like an easy win for you under these terms.
Ok, I can agree to those terms.

What's the next step?  I don't entirely understand Casascuis' escrow system yet...
Casascius - can you generate an escrow invitation for Micon and I on this bet?
Source:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=135914.msg1471640#msg1471640
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April 09, 2013, 04:26:43 PM
 #2

Heh, I can understand why you want to sell the bet. Betting 10k isn't nothing. Good luck and I hope someone will take your bet!

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April 09, 2013, 04:43:47 PM
 #3

OP only bet 20BTC, which would be a $4,000 bet now.  Still not chump change - and who knows, might be 40 large by the end of the bet.

I'm confused - why are you asking 35BTC?

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April 09, 2013, 05:10:49 PM
 #4

OP only bet 20BTC, which would be a $4,000 bet now.  Still not chump change - and who knows, might be 40 large by the end of the bet.

I'm confused - why are you asking 35BTC?
Because the amount to be won is 40 BTC.
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April 09, 2013, 05:49:36 PM
 #5

Maybe ask Micon if he'll let you buy out of the bet for 5BTC or so?
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April 09, 2013, 05:58:25 PM
 #6

Maybe ask Micon if he'll let you buy out of the bet for 5BTC or so?
Well, worth a shot I suppose.  Wink
CrazyGuy
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April 09, 2013, 07:28:15 PM
 #7

That's a good bet, he wouldn't take one from me with the same exact terms so I expect he thinks he will lose. You might as well keep it...

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April 09, 2013, 07:29:10 PM
 #8

That's a good bet, he wouldn't take one from me with the same exact terms so I expect he thinks he will lose. You might as well keep it...
I very much think I will win as well.  It's just that niggling feeling of "what if" and "holy crap, that's almost $10k" that makes me want to just be done with it.
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April 09, 2013, 10:12:03 PM
 #9

SgtSpike,

I wouldn't mind a slice of that pie.

Would you consider taking on a few "silent partners", rather than trying to get out of the bet altogether?

H24
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April 09, 2013, 10:56:32 PM
 #10

Jesus.  I've now heard it all.  'Selling' this kind of bet like it's a ticket for a fucking raffle or something.  I instead suggest that you trash this idea as a lapse of judgement on your part, retain your dignity and honor your bet or forfeit it entirely.


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April 09, 2013, 10:58:44 PM
 #11

Tough luck on this one, Micon wins, I think.

It seemed like a good idea at the time.
erschiessen
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April 09, 2013, 11:34:11 PM
 #12

Help me understand...
Sgt Spike put up BTC20 on a bet of whether BFL will ship product.
But wants to sell his potential loss of BTC20 for BTC35.
Is that right?

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April 10, 2013, 12:23:37 AM
 #13

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April 10, 2013, 12:25:51 AM
 #14

Help me understand...
Sgt Spike put up BTC20 on a bet of whether BFL will ship product.
But wants to sell his potential loss of BTC20 for BTC35.
Is that right?

correct
I think INCORRECT.   In the latter part of the string it seems the bet was upped to 40BTC.


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erschiessen
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April 10, 2013, 12:43:17 AM
 #15

M/M,
The BTC40 is the total # of BTC involved.
Sgt put up 20, Micon put up 20.

Spec products delivered by 7/1/2013.

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April 10, 2013, 12:47:33 AM
 #16

M/M,
The BTC40 is the total # of BTC involved.
Sgt put up 20, Micon put up 20.

Spec products delivered by 7/1/2013.

Wow, the Non Com is pretty aggressive then.   I would think about 10 would be fair given BFL_Steven's latest "rumor that cannot be confirmed"


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SgtSpike
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April 10, 2013, 03:19:57 AM
 #17

SgtSpike,

I wouldn't mind a slice of that pie.

Would you consider taking on a few "silent partners", rather than trying to get out of the bet altogether?

H24
Certainly.

M/M,
The BTC40 is the total # of BTC involved.
Sgt put up 20, Micon put up 20.

Spec products delivered by 7/1/2013.

Wow, the Non Com is pretty aggressive then.   I would think about 10 would be fair given BFL_Steven's latest "rumor that cannot be confirmed"
I am open to offers.  35 BTC is what seems fair to me, but feel free to offer whatever seems fair to you.
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April 10, 2013, 03:20:37 AM
 #18

Help me understand...
Sgt Spike put up BTC20 on a bet of whether BFL will ship product.
But wants to sell his potential loss of BTC20 for BTC35.
Is that right?
Correction:  I want to sell the likely win of 40 BTC for 35 BTC.  Wink
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April 10, 2013, 03:27:37 AM
 #19

I will bring the price down to 30 BTC.  I don't think 35 BTC is enough of a premium to generate any interest.
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April 10, 2013, 04:32:54 AM
 #20

I am willing to bet up to 100 coins on this at 1:1

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=135914.0

I'm flying FPV race drones these days. Check out my YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/MiconFPV
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