I want you to have a look at this graph

[kiwiasian]

And tell me with a serious face that the Bitcoin economy is not going to crash.

[Bazil]

could have a correction, there was one in early May.  If so it will be a time to put more into bitcoins I think.  Also run the same time range over almost any equal period after april and you will see that the graph looks the same.  So basically this has been pretty steady since then.  The market will crash if an when all the speculators have had their fill and only if people don't actually start using the currency.  At that point the miners will be over producing.

[The Koolio]

And tell me with a serious face that the Bitcoin economy is not going to crash.

You think thats bad? try looking at oil or gold or any commodity over a time frame and you'll see similar rises.

[kiwiasian]

Exactly, that's the point I'm trying to make. It's going to crash.

[The Koolio]

but you havnt made a point, other commodities havnt crashed? yes it might lower and level out, but i doubt itll ever see single dollar figures again, if not for a while at least. just because theres a sharp increase doesnt mean a sharp decrease. Remember the relative number of users isnt that high compared to global population, as it picks up more and more you'll see that the price will just keep going up, yes some big players will sell off but i doubt itll crash

[piuk]

Oil has never crashed before?

[kiwiasian]

but you havnt made a point, other commodities havnt crashed? yes it might lower and level out, but i doubt itll ever see single dollar figures again, if not for a while at least. just because theres a sharp increase doesnt mean a sharp decrease. Remember the relative number of users isnt that high compared to global population, as it picks up more and more you'll see that the price will just keep going up, yes some big players will sell off but i doubt itll crash

Are you agreeing with me or disagreeing? That's exactly what I'm saying. Other commodities have crashed in similar patterns.

[Mashuri]

And tell me with a serious face that the Bitcoin economy is not going to crash.

Look at the same thing on a logarithmic scale.

[MarketNeutral]

Looks dangerous to me.



However.....

Perhaps a log chart would be better.

Also, consider similarly steep rises earlier in the year. Go back in time and zoom in and one sees something similar to what is happening now. (Think fractaly.)

Yet the price continued upwards after a correction.

Corrections are healthy.

The bitcoin market is a nascent market with relatively low volume and liquidity, and more importantly, it has yet to find any equilibrium, thus technical analysis is pretty much just guesswork.

Price discovery is still in its early stages.

One could just as easily argue that of course it's spiking upwards, because it started at zero. There was no IPO starting price, like with stocks.

A very ominous chart, indeed, but who doesn't recognize the speculative nature of such a young market?

[Sukrim]

Oil has never crashed before?

There's a "little bit" missing on that graph... 2004-2011. Get the data and prepare to be scared/amazed!

Also on the BTC picture there are 2 weeks missing - it would extend now up to ~30 USD.

[kiwiasian]

Oil has never crashed before?

There's a "little bit" missing on that graph... 2004-2011. Get the data and prepare to be scared/amazed!

Also on the BTC picture there are 2 weeks missing - it would extend now up to ~30 USD.

That would just make it look even more dangerous.

[billyjoeallen]

The bitcoin economy is not going to crash.  Bitcoin has no natural predators. It will out-breed any native currency. What is going to crash is the global economy. The fractional reserve system will either unwind, causing a deflationary death-spiral or eventually hyper-inflate. What will replace the Dollar as the world reserve currency? IMF special drawing rights? please. the Euro? two years from now there won't even be a Euro. Chuinese Yuan (renmimbi)? China is headed for a lost decade or two because they are following the same disasterous neo-mercantilist policies as Japan did. i remember the fear and panic in the 1980-s when we were afraid Japan would take over the world economically. They didn't and China won't and for the same reason.  What's left? gold and Bitcoin, mostly.

[DrSammyD]

Oil has never crashed before?

https://i.imgur.com/LkhHB.gif

There's a "little bit" missing on that graph... 2004-2011. Get the data and prepare to be scared/amazed!

Also on the BTC picture there are 2 weeks missing - it would extend now up to ~30 USD.

LOL, as if that chart reflects volatility in oil as opposed to volatility in the dollar. LOOK at the dates. It was the end of the 1970's. They just completely ended the ties to gold in dollars.

[nixxle]

And tell me with a serious face that the Bitcoin economy is not going to crash.

https://i.imgur.com/HBpyb.jpg

Look at the same thing on a logarithmic scale.

Please explain that to this non-mathematician

[phatsphere]

The bitcoin economy is not going to crash.  Bitcoin has no natural predators. It will out-breed any native currency. [...]  What's left? gold and Bitcoin, mostly.

wow, i'm amazed by your stark assumptions. though i fear, sadly most people prefer a strong global governance telling them what to do over some geeky software where they loose their money when the next crash/virus eats all their files on their computer.

[BombaUcigasa]

Your chart is obviously wrong, use the correct version next time...

[BombaUcigasa]

You might also be interested in this:

[billyjoeallen]

The bitcoin economy is not going to crash.  Bitcoin has no natural predators. It will out-breed any native currency. [...]  What's left? gold and Bitcoin, mostly.

wow, i'm amazed by your stark assumptions. though i fear, sadly most people prefer a strong global governance telling them what to do over some geeky software where they loose their money when the next crash/virus eats all their files on their computer.

As opposed to gold, which was confiscated in the thirties or fiat currency, which has lost over 90% of it's value since 1973?
A virus? srsly? ever heard of a backup?

and most people don't have to accept bitcoin in order for it to become a viable currency. it fills a market niche. it is the only product in that niche.  

[swusc2]

Bitcoin is trading at 25.81 as the last trade right now. I seems like the value is going down to stabilize the crazy growth in the past week. We'll probably see a burst as people come home from work later in the day (US). It might just be prime buying time right now.

[phatsphere]

Please explain that to this non-mathematician

A logarithmic scale is used to show the magnitude of some values, not their absolute value. The "distance" (in that case measured into the y-axis direction) between 1, 10, 100, and 1000 is the same. In comparison, using the usual linear scale the distance between 100 to 200 and 200 to 300 would be the same.
The intent is to flatten out peaks. Also, all your senses as a human being measure the environment in logarithmic scales - hence it is more "natural".