[Poll] How long until $1000 per 1 Bitcoin?

[waspoza]

It's 10 times less then $1000.
But $100 means a market of us$ 2.1 billion... ok us$ is weak.. but... it's a lot.

Microsoft bought stupid communicator for $8.5 billion. So I don't think 2.1 is a lot.

[lassdas]

But $100 means a market of us$ 2.1 billion... ok us$ is weak.. but... it's a lot.

I don't actually think it's a lot.

Speaking at a conference in Brussels on the future of Afghanistan, hosted by Princeton University, the Executive Director of UNODC, Antonio Maria Costa, announced that the total export value of opiates produced in and trafficked from Afghanistan in 2007 is about $4 billion, a 29 per cent increase over 2006.

And that's Afghanistan only, global illegal drug trade is probably somewhere around $500 billion.
But again, that's illegal drug trade only!
 
 

[server]

It's 10 times less then $1000.
But $100 means a market of us$ 2.1 billion... ok us$ is weak.. but... it's a lot.

Microsoft bought stupid communicator for $8.5 billion. So I don't think 2.1 is a lot.

I know, Facebook $100 billion.. but really... no.

[cbeast]

If someone had offered you a piece of the internet back in the 1980's would you have invested? Probably not. Instead folks invested in ISP services like Compuserve. That's what is happening with Bitcoin. Folks are investing in mining rigs with much more than the 150M USD Bitcoin capitalization. So realistically, Bitcoin has a market cap of closer to 300M and is growing. When ASICs come out many miners will use the money they spend on electricity and buy bitcoins instead. Many more will get into the game and we'll see another surge in market cap.

[mufa23]

$400 max, by the time the last coins are going to be mined up.

[ArticMine]

If someone had offered you a piece of the internet back in the 1980's would you have invested? Probably not. Instead folks invested in ISP services like Compuserve. That's what is happening with Bitcoin. Folks are investing in mining rigs with much more than the 150M USD Bitcoin capitalization. So realistically, Bitcoin has a market cap of closer to 300M and is growing. When ASICs come out many miners will use the money they spend on electricity and buy bitcoins instead. Many more will get into the game and we'll see another surge in market cap.

The Internet in its very early stages was offered to AT&T in 1971 for free and they turned it down. http://www.cybertelecom.org/notes/internet_history70s.htm#att

[molecular]

$400 max, by the time the last coins are going to be mined up.

By that time, there is no $ to measure against.

[Peter Lambert]

The poll should really clarify whether we are talking about 2013 USD or current USD? If inflation sets in for the US, then bitcoins could still buy the same as they do today and also trade for $1000 each.

[mufa23]

$400 max, by the time the last coins are going to be mined up.

By that time, there is no $ to measure against.

[drakahn]

The poll should really clarify whether we are talking about 2013 USD or current USD? If inflation sets in for the US, then bitcoins could still buy the same as they do today and also trade for $1000 each.

well, its only 2013 USD for the next year... if you said "in 20 years" then it would be 2033 USD ...

[evolve]

Never.

This experiment will die long before that ever happens.

[tbcoin]

Never.

This experiment will die long before that ever happens.

Award for optimistic of the month !!! 

[evolve]

Lol...after a year and a half (if not more) of watching an alarming amount of hacks and scams (alongside a community with an insane amount of infighting), I cant see this whole thing taking off outside of a few bubbles here and there.

[drakahn]

A year and a half (or even 4 years) is... a drop in the bucket

[evolve]

Right now, we have an internet "currency" that is difficult (or at least cumbersome) for the average person to figure out.  It is hard to move money in and out of exchanges, and history tells us using the exchanges is risky, since many of them have closed up and ran off with peoples money. OTC trades are even more risky.

Once you have your BTC, you have to take ridiculous measures to ensure your wallet isn't somehow hacked.  You can skip this step, but doing that has cost people on this forum a metric shit-ton of money..  

Once you take these security measures, you can finally spend your BTC, if you so chose....but wait! what are you going to buy? The btc market mostly consist of virtual items, black/grey market items, and trinkets...and if you are lucky, the seller will value his "rep" more than your money, and actually sends you the item (or doesn't scam you with a fake item) because there is no way to chargeback.... you could go with escrow, but thats another extra step that shouldn't be needed just to by a bitcoin keychain or whatever.

Add in a poisonous community that scams each other at every given turn (just look at all the ponzis and other scams), and you can see why I dont think this will go anywhere.




I think its cumbersome nature and main userbase aren't going to be changed anytime soon, and certainly not before scammers run this shit into the ground.

[julz]

Right now, we have an internet "currency" that is difficult (or at least cumbersome) for the average person to figure out.  It is hard to move money in and out of exchanges, and history tells us using the exchanges is risky, since many of them have closed up and ran off with peoples money. OTC trades are even more risky.

Once you have your BTC, you have to take ridiculous measures to ensure your wallet isn't somehow hacked.  You can skip this step, but doing that has cost people on this forum a metric shit-ton of money..  

Once you take these security measures, you can finally spend your BTC, if you so chose....but wait! what are you going to buy? The btc market mostly consist of virtual items, black/grey market items, and trinkets...and if you are lucky, the seller will value his "rep" more than your money, and actually sends you the item (or doesn't scam you with a fake item) because there is no way to chargeback.... you could go with escrow, but thats another extra step that shouldn't be needed just to by a bitcoin keychain or whatever.

Add in a poisonous community that scams each other at every given turn (just look at all the ponzis and other scams), and you can see why I dont think this will go anywhere.

I think this is why we're at around $15 rather than $50.

I think its cumbersome nature and main userbase aren't going to be changed anytime soon, and certainly not before scammers run this shit into the ground.

I think this is changing, but even if it weren't - the advent of 'programmable' cryptographic money still has large upside if dominated by sophisticated users as a technical internet phenomenon rather than 'going mainstream'.

[evolve]

the advent of 'programmable' cryptographic money still has large upside if dominated by sophisticated users as a technical internet phenomenon rather than 'going mainstream'.

I agree with this whole-heartedly. I dont think the problem lies with BTC in and of itself, nor do I think that cryptocurrecies are inherently doomed to fail.  The math/programming is sound, and definitely well thought out.

The problem is usability, the constant scamming and hacking, and the mentality of tying its value in relation to USD/EUR/whatever.  (in other words, I use USD daily without thinking/worrying about how many pips were lost to the yen or euro)

That said, in a different time and place, something similar BTC could work.  I just dont think BTC will ever hit 1:1000 with the dollar or stand the test of time.

[nobbynobbynoob]

In the realm of online gaming already, an economy is rapidly growing in which the BTM or mBTC is becoming the standard currency unit, and I don't believe your average player is thinking too much about it being worth roughly a penny in dollar terms. This will develop further.

Fiat currencies are full of scams and hacks too, in fact on a much larger scale...

[Piper67]

Right now, we have an internet "currency" that is difficult (or at least cumbersome) for the average person to figure out.  It is hard to move money in and out of exchanges, and history tells us using the exchanges is risky, since many of them have closed up and ran off with peoples money. OTC trades are even more risky.

Once you have your BTC, you have to take ridiculous measures to ensure your wallet isn't somehow hacked.  You can skip this step, but doing that has cost people on this forum a metric shit-ton of money..  

Once you take these security measures, you can finally spend your BTC, if you so chose....but wait! what are you going to buy? The btc market mostly consist of virtual items, black/grey market items, and trinkets...and if you are lucky, the seller will value his "rep" more than your money, and actually sends you the item (or doesn't scam you with a fake item) because there is no way to chargeback.... you could go with escrow, but thats another extra step that shouldn't be needed just to by a bitcoin keychain or whatever.

Add in a poisonous community that scams each other at every given turn (just look at all the ponzis and other scams), and you can see why I dont think this will go anywhere.




I think its cumbersome nature and main userbase aren't going to be changed anytime soon, and certainly not before scammers run this shit into the ground.

Hey Evolve, you know how I used email back in 1989? I had to physically connect my telephone receiver to a device called a "modem", then dial up the number of a thing called a BBS. I then had to input a string of commands into my computer that would connect me to the BBS and start up a programme called a "client", through which I was able to "download" my emails. I would then disconnect from the BBS, write my replies, then start the whole process up again and tell my "client" to send the replies. I would do this, on average, once a day... normally in the evenings. And I thought it rocked! But at the time, most of my friends and family around the world thought it was too cumbersome.

Now they email from their iPhones and Blackberries... so again, the only failure here is a failure of the imagination.

[evolve]

Hey Evolve, you know how I used email back in 1989? I had to physically connect my telephone receiver to a device called a "modem", then dial up the number of a thing called a BBS. I then had to input a string of commands into my computer that would connect me to the BBS and start up a programme called a "client", through which I was able to "download" my emails. I would then disconnect from the BBS, write my replies, then start the whole process up again and tell my "client" to send the replies. I would do this, on average, once a day... normally in the evenings. And I thought it rocked! But at the time, most of my friends and family around the world thought it was too cumbersome.

Now they email from their iPhones and Blackberries... so again, the only failure here is a failure of the imagination.

Are you still using a dial up modem? No. You use a similar, but different technology.

A similar cryptocurrency may eventually replace bitcoin, but BTC will almost certainly be gone before any pipe dreams of BTC reaching $1000 come true.