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Question: How long until $1000 per 1 Bitcoin?
Within 1 year
Within 2-5 years
Within 6-10 years
Within 11-20 years
Within 21-30 years
Within 31-40 years
Within 41-50 years
Within 51-112 years
Not in our lifetime.
Never
No Vote/See Results

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Author Topic: [Poll] How long until $1000 per 1 Bitcoin?  (Read 7704 times)
drakahn
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January 16, 2013, 06:26:53 AM
 #1

With all this talk of 8 decimal places not being enough in the long run, how long do you think it will be before 1 bitcoin is worth $1000 or more?

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January 16, 2013, 06:37:58 AM
 #2

Why isn't never an option?
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January 16, 2013, 07:05:55 AM
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Why isn't never an option?
It was, but then i changed it to not in our lifetime and didn't re add Never.... Now i have.

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January 16, 2013, 07:15:03 AM
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In the past 1.5 year the exchange rate increased by about 280%/yr. By extrapolation we will have $100/coin at the end of 2014 and $1000/coin in 2017

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January 16, 2013, 07:26:27 AM
 #5

Bitcoin could be worth the equivalent purchasing power of $1000 some day, but I don't think it will ever be worth $1000.
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January 16, 2013, 07:29:33 AM
 #6

Bitcoin could be worth the equivalent purchasing power of $1000 some day, but I don't think it will ever be worth $1000.
Wouldn't "$1000 today money" purchasing power be worth more than "$1000 future money"?

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January 16, 2013, 07:31:59 AM
 #7

I actually just mentioned this in a different post. I used $1000 as the example it would be in 10 years, lol.


Instead of sending Bitcoins to people, you'll be sending .005 of a BTC for a $100 payment sooner or later. Maybe not in out lifetime, but definitely sometime.

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January 16, 2013, 07:33:48 AM
 #8

Bitcoin could be worth the equivalent purchasing power of $1000 some day, but I don't think it will ever be worth $1000.
Wouldn't "$1000 today money" purchasing power be worth more than "$1000 future money"?

Yes, of course.

The reason I say that is that is that the USD would not survive such large inflation and I don't think the purchasing power of bitcoin can rise to these levels without the disappearance of the Dollar in the first place.
At the same time any significant valuation of Bitcoin demands for it to play a major role which I don't think will happen before the USD is gone.
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January 16, 2013, 07:51:54 AM
 #9

5 to 10 years.

How long until 0.10$ per Bitcoin? Probably less.

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Bitcointa.lk - Replace "Bitcointalk.org" with "Bitcointa.lk" in this url to see how this page looks like on a proper forum (Announcement Thread)
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January 16, 2013, 08:41:03 AM
 #10

5 to 10 years.

How long until 0.10$ per Bitcoin? Probably less.
Damn, If that's true I'll be very rich in 5-10 years... since I would put hundreds into 10 cent bitcoins

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January 16, 2013, 09:06:09 AM
 #11

5 to 10 years.

How long until 0.10$ per Bitcoin? Probably less.
Damn, If that's true I'll be very rich in 5-10 years... since I would put hundreds into 10 cent bitcoins

Sorry, i meant that it is either one or the other.

These kind of topics are pointless, if we all think that the price will eventually go up, why is it still stable? We don't know. It will either be 0.1$ or 1000$ in a decade, i'm quite sure of it.

My anger against what is wrong in the Bitcoin community is productive:
Bitcointa.lk - Replace "Bitcointalk.org" with "Bitcointa.lk" in this url to see how this page looks like on a proper forum (Announcement Thread)
Hashfast.org - Wiki for screwed customers
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January 16, 2013, 09:13:26 AM
 #12

As soon as it's being used to sell "illegal" high cap mags, ammo, and pistol grips.
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January 16, 2013, 12:54:42 PM
 #13

Not going to happen.  Never.
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January 16, 2013, 02:20:07 PM
 #14

Not going to happen.  Never.

quoted for future reference

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January 16, 2013, 02:51:07 PM
 #15

Never.

$100.. more realistic, maybe a short bubble like the $30+ days/hours... but no, not for a long period of time.

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January 16, 2013, 03:00:26 PM
 #16

Not going to happen.  Never.

This means it'll probably happen later today.

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January 16, 2013, 03:13:15 PM
 #17

Not going to happen.  Never.

This means it'll probably happen later today.

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January 16, 2013, 03:22:10 PM
 #18

There is a lot of experimentation going on with hardware. There are theoretical models that point to the inevitability of global adoption. It is only a matter before the gearheads create the killer app. Then 1000 USD will fly by like road sign on the Autobahn.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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January 16, 2013, 03:28:36 PM
 #19

Never.

$100.. more realistic, maybe a short bubble like the $30+ days/hours... but no, not for a long period of time.
Is it never, or not for a long period of time now?  Roll Eyes

And what makes $100 more realistic?

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January 16, 2013, 03:46:30 PM
 #20

Never.

$100.. more realistic, maybe a short bubble like the $30+ days/hours... but no, not for a long period of time.
Is it never, or not for a long period of time now?  Roll Eyes

Ok. $1000 never.

And what makes $100 more realistic?

It's 10 times less then $1000.
But $100 means a market of us$ 2.1 billion... ok us$ is weak.. but... it's a lot.

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January 16, 2013, 04:00:48 PM
 #21

It's 10 times less then $1000.
But $100 means a market of us$ 2.1 billion... ok us$ is weak.. but... it's a lot.

Microsoft bought stupid communicator for $8.5 billion. So I don't think 2.1 is a lot.
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January 16, 2013, 04:05:58 PM
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But $100 means a market of us$ 2.1 billion... ok us$ is weak.. but... it's a lot.
I don't actually think it's a lot.

Speaking at a conference in Brussels on the future of Afghanistan, hosted by Princeton University, the Executive Director of UNODC, Antonio Maria Costa, announced that the total export value of opiates produced in and trafficked from Afghanistan in 2007 is about $4 billion, a 29 per cent increase over 2006.
And that's Afghanistan only, global illegal drug trade is probably somewhere around $500 billion.
But again, that's illegal drug trade only!
 
 
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January 16, 2013, 04:06:36 PM
 #23

It's 10 times less then $1000.
But $100 means a market of us$ 2.1 billion... ok us$ is weak.. but... it's a lot.

Microsoft bought stupid communicator for $8.5 billion. So I don't think 2.1 is a lot.

I know, Facebook $100 billion.. but really... no.

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January 16, 2013, 04:32:58 PM
 #24

If someone had offered you a piece of the internet back in the 1980's would you have invested? Probably not. Instead folks invested in ISP services like Compuserve. That's what is happening with Bitcoin. Folks are investing in mining rigs with much more than the 150M USD Bitcoin capitalization. So realistically, Bitcoin has a market cap of closer to 300M and is growing. When ASICs come out many miners will use the money they spend on electricity and buy bitcoins instead. Many more will get into the game and we'll see another surge in market cap.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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January 16, 2013, 04:34:49 PM
 #25

$400 max, by the time the last coins are going to be mined up.

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January 16, 2013, 06:15:37 PM
 #26

If someone had offered you a piece of the internet back in the 1980's would you have invested? Probably not. Instead folks invested in ISP services like Compuserve. That's what is happening with Bitcoin. Folks are investing in mining rigs with much more than the 150M USD Bitcoin capitalization. So realistically, Bitcoin has a market cap of closer to 300M and is growing. When ASICs come out many miners will use the money they spend on electricity and buy bitcoins instead. Many more will get into the game and we'll see another surge in market cap.
The Internet in its very early stages was offered to AT&T in 1971 for free and they turned it down. http://www.cybertelecom.org/notes/internet_history70s.htm#att

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January 16, 2013, 06:51:57 PM
 #27

$400 max, by the time the last coins are going to be mined up.

By that time, there is no $ to measure against.

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January 16, 2013, 07:09:37 PM
 #28

The poll should really clarify whether we are talking about 2013 USD or current USD? If inflation sets in for the US, then bitcoins could still buy the same as they do today and also trade for $1000 each.

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January 16, 2013, 07:46:58 PM
 #29

$400 max, by the time the last coins are going to be mined up.

By that time, there is no $ to measure against.

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January 16, 2013, 11:37:18 PM
 #30

The poll should really clarify whether we are talking about 2013 USD or current USD? If inflation sets in for the US, then bitcoins could still buy the same as they do today and also trade for $1000 each.
well, its only 2013 USD for the next year... if you said "in 20 years" then it would be 2033 USD ...

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January 16, 2013, 11:43:05 PM
 #31

Never.

This experiment will die long before that ever happens.
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January 16, 2013, 11:46:32 PM
 #32

Never.

This experiment will die long before that ever happens.

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January 16, 2013, 11:54:05 PM
 #33

Lol...after a year and a half (if not more) of watching an alarming amount of hacks and scams (alongside a community with an insane amount of infighting), I cant see this whole thing taking off outside of a few bubbles here and there.
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January 16, 2013, 11:59:52 PM
 #34

A year and a half (or even 4 years) is... a drop in the bucket

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January 17, 2013, 12:12:47 AM
 #35

Right now, we have an internet "currency" that is difficult (or at least cumbersome) for the average person to figure out.  It is hard to move money in and out of exchanges, and history tells us using the exchanges is risky, since many of them have closed up and ran off with peoples money. OTC trades are even more risky.

Once you have your BTC, you have to take ridiculous measures to ensure your wallet isn't somehow hacked.  You can skip this step, but doing that has cost people on this forum a metric shit-ton of money..  

Once you take these security measures, you can finally spend your BTC, if you so chose....but wait! what are you going to buy? The btc market mostly consist of virtual items, black/grey market items, and trinkets...and if you are lucky, the seller will value his "rep" more than your money, and actually sends you the item (or doesn't scam you with a fake item) because there is no way to chargeback.... you could go with escrow, but thats another extra step that shouldn't be needed just to by a bitcoin keychain or whatever.

Add in a poisonous community that scams each other at every given turn (just look at all the ponzis and other scams), and you can see why I dont think this will go anywhere.




I think its cumbersome nature and main userbase aren't going to be changed anytime soon, and certainly not before scammers run this shit into the ground.
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January 17, 2013, 02:09:16 AM
 #36

Right now, we have an internet "currency" that is difficult (or at least cumbersome) for the average person to figure out.  It is hard to move money in and out of exchanges, and history tells us using the exchanges is risky, since many of them have closed up and ran off with peoples money. OTC trades are even more risky.

Once you have your BTC, you have to take ridiculous measures to ensure your wallet isn't somehow hacked.  You can skip this step, but doing that has cost people on this forum a metric shit-ton of money..  

Once you take these security measures, you can finally spend your BTC, if you so chose....but wait! what are you going to buy? The btc market mostly consist of virtual items, black/grey market items, and trinkets...and if you are lucky, the seller will value his "rep" more than your money, and actually sends you the item (or doesn't scam you with a fake item) because there is no way to chargeback.... you could go with escrow, but thats another extra step that shouldn't be needed just to by a bitcoin keychain or whatever.

Add in a poisonous community that scams each other at every given turn (just look at all the ponzis and other scams), and you can see why I dont think this will go anywhere.


I think this is why we're at around $15 rather than $50.

I think its cumbersome nature and main userbase aren't going to be changed anytime soon, and certainly not before scammers run this shit into the ground.

I think this is changing, but even if it weren't - the advent of 'programmable' cryptographic money still has large upside if dominated by sophisticated users as a technical internet phenomenon rather than 'going mainstream'.

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January 17, 2013, 02:32:04 AM
 #37

the advent of 'programmable' cryptographic money still has large upside if dominated by sophisticated users as a technical internet phenomenon rather than 'going mainstream'.


I agree with this whole-heartedly. I dont think the problem lies with BTC in and of itself, nor do I think that cryptocurrecies are inherently doomed to fail.  The math/programming is sound, and definitely well thought out.

The problem is usability, the constant scamming and hacking, and the mentality of tying its value in relation to USD/EUR/whatever.  (in other words, I use USD daily without thinking/worrying about how many pips were lost to the yen or euro)

That said, in a different time and place, something similar BTC could work.  I just dont think BTC will ever hit 1:1000 with the dollar or stand the test of time.
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January 17, 2013, 02:49:39 AM
 #38

In the realm of online gaming already, an economy is rapidly growing in which the BTM or mBTC is becoming the standard currency unit, and I don't believe your average player is thinking too much about it being worth roughly a penny in dollar terms. This will develop further.

Fiat currencies are full of scams and hacks too, in fact on a much larger scale...

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January 17, 2013, 02:59:32 AM
 #39

Right now, we have an internet "currency" that is difficult (or at least cumbersome) for the average person to figure out.  It is hard to move money in and out of exchanges, and history tells us using the exchanges is risky, since many of them have closed up and ran off with peoples money. OTC trades are even more risky.

Once you have your BTC, you have to take ridiculous measures to ensure your wallet isn't somehow hacked.  You can skip this step, but doing that has cost people on this forum a metric shit-ton of money..  

Once you take these security measures, you can finally spend your BTC, if you so chose....but wait! what are you going to buy? The btc market mostly consist of virtual items, black/grey market items, and trinkets...and if you are lucky, the seller will value his "rep" more than your money, and actually sends you the item (or doesn't scam you with a fake item) because there is no way to chargeback.... you could go with escrow, but thats another extra step that shouldn't be needed just to by a bitcoin keychain or whatever.

Add in a poisonous community that scams each other at every given turn (just look at all the ponzis and other scams), and you can see why I dont think this will go anywhere.




I think its cumbersome nature and main userbase aren't going to be changed anytime soon, and certainly not before scammers run this shit into the ground.

Hey Evolve, you know how I used email back in 1989? I had to physically connect my telephone receiver to a device called a "modem", then dial up the number of a thing called a BBS. I then had to input a string of commands into my computer that would connect me to the BBS and start up a programme called a "client", through which I was able to "download" my emails. I would then disconnect from the BBS, write my replies, then start the whole process up again and tell my "client" to send the replies. I would do this, on average, once a day... normally in the evenings. And I thought it rocked! But at the time, most of my friends and family around the world thought it was too cumbersome.

Now they email from their iPhones and Blackberries... so again, the only failure here is a failure of the imagination.
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January 17, 2013, 03:33:15 AM
 #40



Hey Evolve, you know how I used email back in 1989? I had to physically connect my telephone receiver to a device called a "modem", then dial up the number of a thing called a BBS. I then had to input a string of commands into my computer that would connect me to the BBS and start up a programme called a "client", through which I was able to "download" my emails. I would then disconnect from the BBS, write my replies, then start the whole process up again and tell my "client" to send the replies. I would do this, on average, once a day... normally in the evenings. And I thought it rocked! But at the time, most of my friends and family around the world thought it was too cumbersome.

Now they email from their iPhones and Blackberries... so again, the only failure here is a failure of the imagination.

Are you still using a dial up modem? No. You use a similar, but different technology.

A similar cryptocurrency may eventually replace bitcoin, but BTC will almost certainly be gone before any pipe dreams of BTC reaching $1000 come true.

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January 17, 2013, 03:39:34 AM
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Hey Evolve, you know how I used email back in 1989? I had to physically connect my telephone receiver to a device called a "modem", then dial up the number of a thing called a BBS. I then had to input a string of commands into my computer that would connect me to the BBS and start up a programme called a "client", through which I was able to "download" my emails. I would then disconnect from the BBS, write my replies, then start the whole process up again and tell my "client" to send the replies. I would do this, on average, once a day... normally in the evenings. And I thought it rocked! But at the time, most of my friends and family around the world thought it was too cumbersome.

Now they email from their iPhones and Blackberries... so again, the only failure here is a failure of the imagination.

Are you still using a dial up modem? No. You use a similar, but different technology.

A similar cryptocurrency may eventually replace bitcoin, but BTC will almost certainly be gone before any pipe dreams of BTC reaching $1000 come true.



I'm very much using the same email protocol, though now it comes in the guise of a gmail account, which gets routed through my cellular network to my iPhone. But yes, ultimately, it's still email.
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January 17, 2013, 03:46:06 AM
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Hey Evolve, you know how I used email back in 1989? I had to physically connect my telephone receiver to a device called a "modem", then dial up the number of a thing called a BBS. I then had to input a string of commands into my computer that would connect me to the BBS and start up a programme called a "client", through which I was able to "download" my emails. I would then disconnect from the BBS, write my replies, then start the whole process up again and tell my "client" to send the replies. I would do this, on average, once a day... normally in the evenings. And I thought it rocked! But at the time, most of my friends and family around the world thought it was too cumbersome.

Now they email from their iPhones and Blackberries... so again, the only failure here is a failure of the imagination.

Are you still using a dial up modem? No. You use a similar, but different technology.

A similar cryptocurrency may eventually replace bitcoin, but BTC will almost certainly be gone before any pipe dreams of BTC reaching $1000 come true.



No matter it is a dial up modem or optical fiber, all data is still transmitted with IPv4 standard of 1980s. Bitcoin is a communication protocol, it could be re-implemented in any new hardware and software in the future.

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January 17, 2013, 03:46:31 AM
 #43

You use a different mode of transferring the information (dial-up modem vs dsl/broadband) and different programs (compuserve or whatever vs gmail) and receive the information on a different type of machine (pc vs pc, laptop, and phones) using the same basic method (email protocol)


So a similar, but more advanced (read: different) version of the technology of what you used before?

Yeah, I said that.
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January 17, 2013, 03:50:56 AM
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You said yourself that Bitcoin isn't the problem.


It isn't. I listed the problems already, and don't think they will resolve themselves. Some may be solved eventually, but I think the scammers, hackers, and black market sellers (amongst other things) are going to kill BTC before it ever gets off of the ground.
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January 17, 2013, 03:52:40 AM
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You use a different mode of transferring the information (dial-up modem vs dsl/broadband) and different programs (compuserve or whatever vs gmail) and receive the information on a different type of machine (pc vs pc, laptop, and phones) using the same basic method (email protocol)


So a similar, but more advanced (read: different) version of the technology of what you used before?

Yeah, I said that.

The irony, of course, is that your name is evolve. OK, it's like this... the email protocol is like the Bitcoin protocol. Eudora (google it) is like the Bitcoin client. Gmail is like blockchain.info. The modem, believe it or not, is like the modem. The iPhone is like the iPhone and the Android is like the Android... oh, and a metaphor is like a simile (just love that one).

The underlying protocol remains the same, the technologies built on that protocol have become more user friendly and ridiculously more popular (if Bitcoin in 2020 has grown anywhere near the same extent as email has since the 90's, you'll be talking to my people's people).

But I suspect you are not amenable to reasoned arguments here, so I'll drop it now, because some of us have work to do. Cheers.
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January 17, 2013, 03:56:14 AM
 #46

But I suspect you are not amenable to reasoned arguments here, so I'll drop it now, because some of us have work to do. Cheers.

I'm being quite reasonable; the problem is that your analogy sucks (and I was trying to show you that without being blunt about it).

You guys can get mad if you want to, but I'm simply being pragmatic.  I still trade BTC (albeit a small amount that I wouldn't miss if it was lost) and I still participate in the community....I just don't hold the lofty (and in my opinion, naive) point of view that BTC will be worth 1000's or that it will ever have usage on a large scale or replace the dollar or any other crazy thing I hear on this forum.







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January 17, 2013, 03:59:45 AM
 #47

Right now, we have an internet "currency" that is difficult (or at least cumbersome) for the average person to figure out.  It is hard to move money in and out of exchanges, and history tells us using the exchanges is risky, since many of them have closed up and ran off with peoples money. OTC trades are even more risky.

Once you have your BTC, you have to take ridiculous measures to ensure your wallet isn't somehow hacked.  You can skip this step, but doing that has cost people on this forum a metric shit-ton of money..  

Once you take these security measures, you can finally spend your BTC, if you so chose....but wait! what are you going to buy? The btc market mostly consist of virtual items, black/grey market items, and trinkets...and if you are lucky, the seller will value his "rep" more than your money, and actually sends you the item (or doesn't scam you with a fake item) because there is no way to chargeback.... you could go with escrow, but thats another extra step that shouldn't be needed just to by a bitcoin keychain or whatever.

Add in a poisonous community that scams each other at every given turn (just look at all the ponzis and other scams), and you can see why I dont think this will go anywhere.




I think its cumbersome nature and main userbase aren't going to be changed anytime soon, and certainly not before scammers run this shit into the ground.

Hey Evolve, you know how I used email back in 1989? I had to physically connect my telephone receiver to a device called a "modem", then dial up the number of a thing called a BBS. I then had to input a string of commands into my computer that would connect me to the BBS and start up a programme called a "client", through which I was able to "download" my emails. I would then disconnect from the BBS, write my replies, then start the whole process up again and tell my "client" to send the replies. I would do this, on average, once a day... normally in the evenings. And I thought it rocked! But at the time, most of my friends and family around the world thought it was too cumbersome.

Now they email from their iPhones and Blackberries... so again, the only failure here is a failure of the imagination.

No.  The user doesn't care about imaginary software.  The failure is usable software that eliminates the complexity.  It's coming.

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January 17, 2013, 04:46:00 AM
 #48


I've always said that if/when Bitcoin finds it legs, it will have almost nothing to do with Bitcoin and almost everything to do with more general global monetary systems breaking down.

To me, the question of this poll is the same thing as asking how long before there is a crisis in confidence in current global monetary regimes which leaves people scrambling for whatever exits exist.  I voted 'within a year' because 5 years ago I thought this would happen by 2012 and we are already past that.  I actually I probably should have been more conservative and gone with 2-5 since our leaders do seem to have some room to hold things together yet.

Actually, I see $1000/BTC as in the range which could be reached absent other issues.  The 'big values' are much larger.  I think that $1000/BTC probably is achievable through 'organic' growth in the 2-5 year timeframe but would certainly not bet on it.


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January 17, 2013, 05:01:18 AM
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Hey Evolve, you know how I used email back in 1989? I had to physically connect my telephone receiver to a device called a "modem", then dial up the number of a thing called a BBS.
...

I'm very much using the same email protocol, though now it comes in the guise of a gmail account, which gets routed through my cellular network to my iPhone. But yes, ultimately, it's still email.

I suspect that if/when BTC values reach their potential, the people who will be able to capitalize will be familiar with the following form of e-mail addressing:

Quote
hubhost!middlehost!edgehost!user@uucpgateway.somedomain.example.com

BTW, I do still have a modem.  The only other option is satellite, and I do use that when it is working although the modem is actually preferable for ssh sessions (barely...Viasat isn't bad these days in terms of latency.)  At my office in town I have cable thankfully.


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January 17, 2013, 05:10:50 AM
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Hey Evolve, you know how I used email back in 1989? I had to physically connect my telephone receiver to a device called a "modem", then dial up the number of a thing called a BBS.
...

I'm very much using the same email protocol, though now it comes in the guise of a gmail account, which gets routed through my cellular network to my iPhone. But yes, ultimately, it's still email.

I suspect that if/when BTC values reach their potential, the people who will be able to capitalize will be familiar with the following form of e-mail addressing:

Quote
hubhost!middlehost!edgehost!user@uucpgateway.somedomain.example.com

BTW, I do still have a modem.  The only other option is satellite, and I do use that when it is working although the modem is actually preferable for ssh sessions (barely...Viasat isn't bad these days in terms of latency.)  At my office in town I have cable thankfully.



From his usage I assumed he meant this type of modem: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acoustic_coupler

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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January 17, 2013, 05:21:14 AM
 #51


BTW, I do still have a modem.  The only other option is satellite, and I do use that when it is working although the modem is actually preferable for ssh sessions (barely...Viasat isn't bad these days in terms of latency.)  At my office in town I have cable thankfully.

From his usage I assumed he meant this type of modem: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acoustic_coupler

In '89 that would probably be the case I suppose.  My first modem was 300 baud, but was not acoustic.  It was out-of-date and I got it for next to nothing, but quickly updated to a blazing fast 2400 baud unit.  Acoustic modems could be handy though in end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it scenarios though perhaps.

As I was tapping this out, I just got to wondering if anyone has tried doing genuine acoustic transmissions using old-time big-ass satellite dishes or something of that nature, and if so, what kind of range is possible.  At least such a thing would stay off the electromagnetic spectra.


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January 17, 2013, 06:53:22 AM
 #52

Never.

This experiment will die long before that ever happens.

which one? USD or Bitcoin?

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January 17, 2013, 06:53:52 AM
 #53

Lol...after a year and a half (if not more) of watching an alarming amount of hacks and scams (alongside a community with an insane amount of infighting), I cant see this whole thing taking off outside of a few bubbles here and there.

use your imagination!

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January 17, 2013, 06:59:39 AM
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Hey Evolve, you know how I used email back in 1989? I had to physically connect my telephone receiver to a device called a "modem", then dial up the number of a thing called a BBS. I then had to input a string of commands into my computer that would connect me to the BBS and start up a programme called a "client", through which I was able to "download" my emails. I would then disconnect from the BBS, write my replies, then start the whole process up again and tell my "client" to send the replies. I would do this, on average, once a day... normally in the evenings. And I thought it rocked! But at the time, most of my friends and family around the world thought it was too cumbersome.

Now they email from their iPhones and Blackberries... so again, the only failure here is a failure of the imagination.

Are you still using a dial up modem? No. You use a similar, but different technology.

A similar cryptocurrency may eventually replace bitcoin, but BTC will almost certainly be gone before any pipe dreams of BTC reaching $1000 come true.



No matter it is a dial up modem or optical fiber, all data is still transmitted with IPv4 standard of 1980s. Bitcoin is a communication protocol, it could be re-implemented in any new hardware and software in the future.

He probably didn't use TCP/IP, though. From the sound of it he used https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FidoNet mail. I'm not sure, though.

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January 17, 2013, 07:08:29 AM
 #55


You said yourself that Bitcoin isn't the problem.


It isn't. I listed the problems already, and don't think they will resolve themselves. Some may be solved eventually, but I think the scammers, hackers, and black market sellers (amongst other things) are going to kill BTC before it ever gets off of the ground.

you main two points are:

  • bad usability
  • scammers will run bitcoin to the ground

usability: people use excel just fine and many are even able to setup an ebay auction. I don't think using blockchain.info wallet or android bitcoin wallets is very hard. I agree usability can and will be increased, but that's definitely not what can make bitcoin fail.

scammers will run bitcoin to the ground: If that was likely, it would already have happened. Look at all the shit that has gone down, yet the community is growing... and learning. It's a social problem. With a non-chargebackable currency, you have to do business slightly differently and the technologies do support this (wot and stuff) are currently being evolved.

I call BS, you just want cheap coins again.

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January 17, 2013, 09:54:23 AM
 #56

Lol...after a year and a half (if not more) of watching an alarming amount of hacks and scams (alongside a community with an insane amount of infighting), I cant see this whole thing taking off outside of a few bubbles here and there.

you can also get scammed if you invest usd.
it is not the bitcoin system that generates those scams, it is scammers. the problem with scams in the bitcoin world is that lots of people (mostly newbies) still think that you can only win with bitcoins, no matter what you do with them. if they would apply the same investing strategy in the "real" (usd) world, they would already be bancrupt.

by example, you would not give your usd to a anonymous guy offering you like 100% return per year. why did people give their btc to pirate then?

think about it.
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January 17, 2013, 10:58:49 AM
 #57

Why count in dollar's form?

Even if FED find out that this thing will become a huge bubble and start to tighten the USD money supply, they cannot stop people from trading in BTC with other currencies. Even if all the central banks in the world start to tighten the money supply, they cannot stop people from trading in BTC with real goods and assets, it is like a blackhole which can suck in anything valueable, if the demand is enough high

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January 17, 2013, 11:13:01 AM
 #58

here's another poll: How long before 1 BTC = 1 oz of gold

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January 17, 2013, 12:08:04 PM
 #59

we need new poll: How long until a Fishful of dollars!!! per 1 Bitcoin?

JK, nice poll Wink

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January 17, 2013, 12:45:58 PM
 #60

Right now, we have an internet "currency" that is difficult (or at least cumbersome) for the average person to figure out.  It is hard to move money in and out of exchanges, and history tells us using the exchanges is risky, since many of them have closed up and ran off with peoples money. OTC trades are even more risky.

Once you have your BTC, you have to take ridiculous measures to ensure your wallet isn't somehow hacked.  You can skip this step, but doing that has cost people on this forum a metric shit-ton of money..  

Once you take these security measures, you can finally spend your BTC, if you so chose....but wait! what are you going to buy? The btc market mostly consist of virtual items, black/grey market items, and trinkets...and if you are lucky, the seller will value his "rep" more than your money, and actually sends you the item (or doesn't scam you with a fake item) because there is no way to chargeback.... you could go with escrow, but thats another extra step that shouldn't be needed just to by a bitcoin keychain or whatever.

Add in a poisonous community that scams each other at every given turn (just look at all the ponzis and other scams), and you can see why I dont think this will go anywhere.




I think its cumbersome nature and main userbase aren't going to be changed anytime soon, and certainly not before scammers run this shit into the ground.

Good reasoning I agree.. but the market has already proven you dead wrong. The Bitcoin 'financial economy' suffered an almost total catastrophic collapse last summer (GLBSE sudden shutdown, Bitcoinica shutdown, pirate ponzi destroying almost the entire main lending and finance infrastructure (almost all the trusted forum lenders were embroiled in the fiasco somehow) and many of the entrepreneurial types leaving the bitcoin economy altogether).

Despite this calamity the price has staged a huge rally in the last 8 months.. sure you can say this is a 'bubble' or temporary due to the wordpress announcement etc etc, just like all the well reasoned and highly educated academics said the DOW couldn't go higher than 2000, 3000, 4000 etc in the 90s. It eventually ran up to 14,000. The market proved them wrong and in the end that is all that matters. The price is the ultimate arbiter.

EDIT: I am not saying the price is going to $1000. I am just pointing out that your theoretical argument has not stood up in the real world.

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January 17, 2013, 12:54:36 PM
 #61

The market eventually and always catches up to fundamentals.
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January 17, 2013, 12:57:53 PM
 #62

Right now, we have an internet "currency" that is difficult (or at least cumbersome) for the average person to figure out.  It is hard to move money in and out of exchanges, and history tells us using the exchanges is risky, since many of them have closed up and ran off with peoples money. OTC trades are even more risky.

Once you have your BTC, you have to take ridiculous measures to ensure your wallet isn't somehow hacked.  You can skip this step, but doing that has cost people on this forum a metric shit-ton of money..  

Once you take these security measures, you can finally spend your BTC, if you so chose....but wait! what are you going to buy? The btc market mostly consist of virtual items, black/grey market items, and trinkets...and if you are lucky, the seller will value his "rep" more than your money, and actually sends you the item (or doesn't scam you with a fake item) because there is no way to chargeback.... you could go with escrow, but thats another extra step that shouldn't be needed just to by a bitcoin keychain or whatever.

Add in a poisonous community that scams each other at every given turn (just look at all the ponzis and other scams), and you can see why I dont think this will go anywhere.




I think its cumbersome nature and main userbase aren't going to be changed anytime soon, and certainly not before scammers run this shit into the ground.

In every marketplace people ar scamming or getting scammed this is totally not related to btc but to people itself... also i think that globalisation as it takes place the last 10years thru the internet will grow en needs an currency by itself .. Only paypal with there scams are reachebel for the mass becourse of its easy to use.. My 10 year old already shows me how to use an ipad properly so his generation will easily figure out bitcoin thats why btc or something like btc will be succesfull in the near future.. Not becourse you find it hard to understand it means nobody will adopt it ..

Also if criminels or so is to be the first to use its bennifits why not the mass later when it is proven to work..
Us fbi en cia were catching drugtrafficers from mexico to get there dope ..then they realised they should go to other side of the freeway to catch the return cash dollars the dope was sold for so they specialized in money finding dogs ect. We just wait till the mexicans en colombians find out about btc then what will happen..!!!

I think we will be at 100$ in 2016  Cool sorry for my poor english

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January 17, 2013, 04:35:04 PM
 #63

usability: people use excel just fine and many are even able to setup an ebay auction. I don't think using blockchain.info wallet or android bitcoin wallets is very hard. I agree usability can and will be increased, but that's definitely not what can make bitcoin fail.

Usability can definitely make bitcoin fail, because it creates a high barrier of entry that the average person isnt going to bother with. Hell, it took me three months after I discovered bitcoin to actually buy some, just because of the hassle it took to get money on the exchanges... and this was before the mtgox hack...now you need to show passports and other ID and wait even longer for money to enter/leave your account (which is why i havent added anymore to the system beyond my initial deposit.


Add in the complexity of the system (which isnt that hard to figure out, but does take a good deal of research to use), the fact that most people are not very computer literate (beyond basics like email, miscrosoft office, etc), and a block chain that's bloated to a few gigs (and gets worse everyday) and takes forever to download, and you end up with a giant hassle that most people wont bother with.

Can these problems be solved? Some of them, yes. Can they all be fixed before BTC becomes a distant memory? I doubt it


scammers will run bitcoin to the ground: If that was likely, it would already have happened. Look at all the shit that has gone down, yet the community is growing... and learning. It's a social problem. With a non-chargebackable currency, you have to do business slightly differently and the technologies do support this (wot and stuff) are currently being evolved.


The very nature of a psuedo-anonymous currency (because its not truly anonymous, and traffic analysis can reveal a LOT) makes it prone to scamming.  I've seen people run off from this forum with a few hundred thousand dollars, and guess what? There isn't a single bit of recourse. If someone runs off with my cash, at least I can get police/legal help.  The cops arent going to investigate someone taking your imaginary internet money.

In my opinion, it is naive to think that rampant scamming doesnt affect the userbase. When just about every article on btc is about a crash or a hack or a scam, people are going to be weary of using it (and even more so when they see the barrier to entry).   Hell, I wont use any other exchange but MT gox because it seems like every other month a new one goes down (and takes its users money and runs) and I only half trust mygox not to steal my cash (another reason I wont put more money in the system).



You can keep a influx of new rubes going for a little while (particularly with raising BTC prices), but that wont last forever. People will get sick of jamming thier dicks into beehives and losing all their money (and have, I dont see half the users I remember when I joined the forum, the lack of old timers should be concerning).  

Look at the volume, with the exception of the bottom of the original bubble, its never really reached the level it had at the peak of the bubble...in fact, it looks downright anemic compared to how it was...how many times can that happen before it drops to almost nothing (meaning no users trading)?






I call BS, you just want cheap coins again.


Thats cute, but I measure my profits in USD, not BTC.  The price of BTC is meaningless to me, all I care about is whether or not the days movement beats the spread/fees and whether or not there is a clear trend.  If the answer is no, I stay in dollars (in fact, I stay in USD most of the time, unless I see a clear opportunity to make a profit so Im not exposed if/when there is a crash)
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January 17, 2013, 04:52:24 PM
 #64

There are many investment instruments, the only reason people buying it is because the price is rising fast and steady. (From mathematical and statistical point of view, a projection of future price appreciationg can be made). Given limited and shrinking supply of BTC, once the exchange become less a problem, the price development will accelerate by itself

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January 17, 2013, 05:15:52 PM
 #65

Look at the volume, with the exception of the bottom of the original bubble, its never really reached the level it had at the peak of the bubble...in fact, it looks downright anemic compared to how it was...how many times can that happen before it drops to almost nothing (meaning no users trading)?






you know that is only MtGox' volume, right? at the times of the bubble, MtGox was in fact the only exchange to trade BTC. by now there are more and more alternatives and the overall volume starts to spread more and more over different exchanges, which is, IMO, very healthy for bitcoin.
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January 17, 2013, 05:18:47 PM
 #66

Mt Gox has always had the lions share of the BTC market volume (which is why it is almost always used as the metric when discussing price/volume).

Since I was talking about historical volume, its the only chart that is relevant to the discussion.
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January 17, 2013, 05:23:11 PM
 #67

usability: people use excel just fine and many are even able to setup an ebay auction. I don't think using blockchain.info wallet or android bitcoin wallets is very hard. I agree usability can and will be increased, but that's definitely not what can make bitcoin fail.

Usability can definitely make bitcoin fail, because it creates a high barrier of entry that the average person isnt going to bother with. Hell, it took me three months after I discovered bitcoin to actually buy some, just because of the hassle it took to get money on the exchanges... and this was before the mtgox hack...now you need to show passports and other ID and wait even longer for money to enter/leave your account (which is why i havent added anymore to the system beyond my initial deposit.

There are many more ways than mtgox to buy bitcoins. Just this week I had a total noob buy €250 worth of coins from me through localbitcoins.com. Why did he pay the hefty fee? Because it was easier than mtGox. Also in Europe, there's bitcoin.de. Works like a charm. Also much easier than gox and very small wait of 1-2 day SEPA transfer to the seller.

Earlier you spoke about usability in terms of client... at least I had the impression. After I took the wind out these sails you switched to "problems using exchange". Now I took the wind out of these sails, too. At least to an extent. I'm not saying bitcoin can't be easier to use, but it's easy enough already. Whoever wants bitcoins can get them. Rather quickly and cheaply (<10%), too.

Add in the complexity of the system (which isnt that hard to figure out, but does take a good deal of research to use) and the fact that most people are not very computer literate (beyond basics like email, miscrosoft office, etc) and a block chain that's bloated to a few gigs (and gets worse everyday) which takes forever to download, and you end up with a giant hassle that most people wont bother with.

Most sites/communities that introduce bitcoin send people to blockchain.info or some other reasonably secure online wallet.

Can these problems be solved? Some of them, yes. Can they all be fixed before BTC becomes a distant memory? I doubt it

Of course they can. They're in the process of being solved. Why would BTC become a distant memory? Have you looked at the news and markets lately? Is there anything that looks even remotely like it [c|w]ould replace BTC or cryptocurrency in general?

scammers will run bitcoin to the ground: If that was likely, it would already have happened. Look at all the shit that has gone down, yet the community is growing... and learning. It's a social problem. With a non-chargebackable currency, you have to do business slightly differently and the technologies do support this (wot and stuff) are currently being evolved.

The very nature of a psuedo-anonymous (because its not truly anonymous, and traffic analysis can reveal a LOT) currency makes it prone to scamming.  I've seen people run off from this forum with a few hundred thousand dollars, and guess what? There isn't a single bit of recourse. If someone runs off with my cash, at least I can get police/legal help.  The cops arent going to investigate someone taking your imaginary internet money.

In my opinion, it is naive to think that rampant scamming doesnt affect the userbase. When just about every article on btc is about a crash or a hack or a scam, people are going to be weary of using it (and even more so when they see the barrier to entry).   Hell, I wont use any other exchange but MT gox because it seems like every other month a new one goes down (and takes its users money and runs) and I only half trust mygox not to steal my cash (another reason I wont put more money in the system).

You see what you want to see. It's called selective perception. I seem to suffer from it, too: I almost exclusively seem to find good news about bitcoin recently.

You can keep a influx of new rubes going for a little while (particularly with raising BTC prices), but that wont last forever. People will get sick of jamming thier dicks into beehives and losing all their money (and have, I dont see half the users I remember when I joined the forum, the lack of old timers should be concerning).  

Look at the volume, with the exception of the bottom of the original bubble, its never really reached the level it had at the peak of the bubble...in fact, it looks downright anemic compared to how it was...how many times can that happen before it drops to almost nothing (meaning no users trading)?

Firstly: check that checkbox labeled "volume in currency". Secondly: that's only mtGox. It used to have 90% of the volume. Now it's more like 60%, probably even less depending on how you measure. A lot of trades take place off-exchange and that's a good thing.

I call BS, you just want cheap coins again.

Thats cute,

well, I was teasing you bit.

but I measure my profits in USD, not BTC.  The price of BTC is meaningless to me, all I care about is whether or not the days movement beats the spread/fees and whether or not there is a clear trend.

I can now understand why your early acquaintances on these forums are mostly gone by now.

EDIT: fixed quoting

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January 17, 2013, 05:23:24 PM
 #68

Mt Gox has always had the lions share of the BTC market volume (which is why it is almost always used as the metric when discussing price/volume).

Since I was talking about historical volume, its the only chart that is relevant to the discussion.

MtGox volume is 60% of the total volume (excluding OTC trade) so you need to divide its volume by 0.6

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/

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January 17, 2013, 05:42:37 PM
 #69

There are many more ways than mtgox to buy bitcoins. Just this week I had a total noob buy €250 worth of coins from me through localbitcoins.com. Why did he pay the hefty fee? Because it was easier than mtGox.

I've already spoken about OTC trades, the problem is that it leaves you very open to scammers (hell we have a whole board on this forum specifically for scam accusations) unless you FTF or escrow.


Earlier you spoke about usability in terms of client... at least I had the impression. After I took the wind out these sails you switched to "problems using exchange". Now I took the wind out of these sails, too.


What in the fuck are you talking about?

The client isnt user freindly, takes a good deal of research to use, takes a lot of time to download, your average person is computer illiterate (read:likely to delete thier wallet, send to the wrong address, etc), and it requires a lot of steps to keep your money secure.

The exchanges are a hassle to get money in and out of, leave you open to having your money stolen by the owner of the exchange (as we have seen a shitload of times), most require an ID (so much for anonymity), and (if you are lucky enough) you might not get your money stolen in a hack.

Where exactly do you think you "took the wind out of my sails"?  


Most sites/communities that introduce bitcoin send people to blockchain.info or some other reasonably secure online wallet.

Yeah, history shows us that's another good way to get your money stolen by a hacker or the owner shutting down and stealing it.




MtGox volume is 60% of the total volume (excluding OTC trade) so you need to divide its volume by 0.6

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/


Even with the other exchanges volume added in, it still doesn't bring total volume anywhere close to mt.goxs peak in 2011
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January 17, 2013, 06:10:28 PM
 #70

The client isnt user freindly, takes a good deal of research to use, your average person is computer illiterate (read:likely to delete thier wallet, send to the wrong address, etc), and requires a lot of steps to keep your money secure. The exchanges are a hassle to use, leave you open to having your money stolen by the owner of the exchange (as we have seen a shitload of times), most require an ID (so much for anonymity), and if you are lucky enough you might not get your money stolen in a hack.

When people have an incentive to learn no amount of hassle or research reading is going to stop them from figuring it out. Just browse the silkroad subreddit sometime and see how quickly college students and ex hippy baby boomers pick up PGP and coin tumbling.
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January 17, 2013, 06:17:48 PM
 #71

why is "within 2 weeks", not an option?

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
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January 17, 2013, 06:33:48 PM
 #72


I can now understand why your early acquaintances on these forums are mostly gone by now.

EDIT: fixed quoting

Yeah, they had tons of coins and sold all for pennies. And now they just can't watch the price rise cuz it hurts.  Tongue
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January 17, 2013, 06:36:51 PM
 #73


Yeah, they had tons of coins and sold all for pennies. And now they just can't watch the price rise cuz it hurts.  Tongue

Well they better get used to it as its gonna hurt a hell of a lot more in the future  Grin

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January 17, 2013, 06:52:49 PM
 #74

I agree with evolve to an extent.  The current Bitcoin-QT is a huge barrier to a large number of potential users.  Blockchain.info is a perfect replacement (in that it is newbie-friendly and a web interface similar to what they already use for online banking), but for some reason, we aren't pushing newbies towards it from the bitcoin.org page.

Scams and thefts absolutely affect userbase as well.  Without the multiple hundreds-of-thousands-of-dollars-worth hacks, I am sure we would have a userbase at least double what it is now.  But even I am a bit afraid of keeping a large number of coins, just for the "what if" scenarios.  I can keep them on the QT client, but what if malware somehow infects my computer?  I could print a paper wallet, but what if my house burned down?  I could put said paper in a safe, but what if the safe was stolen?  I could put a copy at someone else's house, but what if they lose it and I am relying on something that isn't there as a backup?  Or what if someone steals it from their house?  I could encrypt it, but what if I forget the password?  I could write down the password, but where do I store it?  I could do one of those funky multi-key printed wallets, but what if it doesn't work?  Or what if too many n of m papers are lost, so I cannot piece it back together?

I just can't think of any way for me to store Bitcoins without making me nervous, especially as the dollar value of my holdings grow.  There isn't any insurance or other backups of said holdings.  It's not like my bank account, where if I see a charge I don't recognize, I can get my money back.  Once Bitcoins are gone, they're gone.  And once people understand that, I can imagine many of them have similar fears as I do.

All of this said, I do believe Bitcoin is an incredible technology, and I very much believe it will eventually be very successful.  I just think that it still has some serious walls to break down prior to that success.
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January 17, 2013, 08:29:17 PM
 #75

I agree with evolve to an extent.  The current Bitcoin-QT is a huge barrier to a large number of potential users.  Blockchain.info is a perfect replacement (in that it is newbie-friendly and a web interface similar to what they already use for online banking), but for some reason, we aren't pushing newbies towards it from the bitcoin.org page

Yes, one major hindrance for bitcoins future are technical limitations on possible innovations in comparison to competition. (By that I mean real competition, not the half witted "alternate cryptocurrencies" we have today.)
Potential innovators must be convinced bitcoin can be improved sufficiently to suit their interests so that they do not introduce a competing concept.
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January 17, 2013, 09:02:31 PM
 #76

...
I can assure you I now feel a lot safer than before. 80% of my coins are in my brain and I'm sleeping like a baby.

Of course it has drawbacks: the coins will be lost should I die or have a brain fuckup that makes me forget the passphrase or method or bitcoin.
...

Or, as has been discussed, someone does some 'enhanced interrogation' on your ass.  If BTC values go ballistic I don't even consider the possibility to be wildly fringe.  For my part, I specifically don't keep my offline storage in a mode which is accessible in this way for that reason, and it goes farther than just my BTC holdings.  Call me paranoid I guess.

As for trying to remember a pass phrase, I learned long ago...and much more cheaply than losing a wallet.dat...not to try that.  It just does not work for me, but YMMV.


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January 17, 2013, 09:13:44 PM
 #77

I solved the paranoia thing doing much redundant encrypted wallet backups, with a not-dictionary password that I use daily from several years. In case my fortune will increase significantly I'll subdivide it among several wallets.

But I think the major BTC drawback is the 10 minutes thing to get safe tx: too much. That is a reason why I am expecting that some faster alt.coin like Terracoins could soon become a serious competitor. Another reason is that alt.coins are much more rewarding to latecomer miners -and for every miner post-ASICs.

My tinfoil hat is way bigger than yours.
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January 17, 2013, 09:20:49 PM
 #78

...
I can assure you I now feel a lot safer than before. 80% of my coins are in my brain and I'm sleeping like a baby.

Of course it has drawbacks: the coins will be lost should I die or have a brain fuckup that makes me forget the passphrase or method or bitcoin.
...

Or, as has been discussed, someone does some 'enhanced interrogation' on your ass.  If BTC values go ballistic I don't even consider the possibility to be wildly fringe.  For my part, I specifically don't keep my offline storage in a mode which is accessible in this way for that reason, and it goes farther than just my BTC holdings.  Call me paranoid I guess.

As for trying to remember a pass phrase, I learned long ago...and much more cheaply than losing a wallet.dat...not to try that.  It just does not work for me, but YMMV.

You got a point about the interrogation. I'll probably diversify accross storage modes. So if anyone plans to torture me for the passphrase: best do it before bitcoin reaches $100.

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December 24, 2013, 07:26:11 PM
 #79

so many ppl wrong
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December 24, 2013, 07:32:58 PM
 #80

so many ppl wrong

I was right but I also just voted Cheesy

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December 24, 2013, 07:33:35 PM
 #81

lmao i voted 11-20 years

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December 24, 2013, 07:38:46 PM
 #82

Funniest poll ever!!! Cheesy Smiley
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December 24, 2013, 07:56:01 PM
 #83

Think about it - all the people voting or replying in this topic could have bought bitcoins at $15 after they hit send. Instead, most of them didn't because they were expecting 0.10$ coins.

Now, we see exactly the same thing different magnitude, people waiting for 10$ coins while afraid of buying $500 coins Smiley So funny, especially since many of the people are the same Smiley Dig it up at 10k and we'll share another laugh at short-sightedness of some.

i am satoshi
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December 24, 2013, 08:32:44 PM
 #84

Think about it - all the people voting or replying in this topic could have bought bitcoins at $15 after they hit send. Instead, most of them didn't because they were expecting 0.10$ coins.

Now, we see exactly the same thing different magnitude, people waiting for 10$ coins while afraid of buying $500 coins Smiley So funny, especially since many of the people are the same Smiley Dig it up at 10k and we'll share another laugh at short-sightedness of some.

I am waiting for the 500 USD coins...do you think it will go down now? It doesn't look like it...
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December 24, 2013, 08:40:06 PM
 #85

Think about it - all the people voting or replying in this topic could have bought bitcoins at $15 after they hit send. Instead, most of them didn't because they were expecting 0.10$ coins.

Now, we see exactly the same thing different magnitude, people waiting for 10$ coins while afraid of buying $500 coins Smiley So funny, especially since many of the people are the same Smiley Dig it up at 10k and we'll share another laugh at short-sightedness of some.

I am waiting for the 500 USD coins...do you think it will go down now? It doesn't look like it...

it was there just several days ago! you could have bought. now, no idea.

i am satoshi
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December 24, 2013, 08:47:52 PM
 #86

i think  it dropped as low as $455 on some  exchanges briefly after china bounced their news off the media and caused a panic but now bck to $700 without china i dont think it will drop that low again

if i was a buyer  id be happy to get coins in the $6xx range at the moment and hold them for awhile because a lot of exciting stuff is going to happen in 2014-2016 with or without china Smiley
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December 25, 2013, 12:39:39 AM
 #87

I love seeing the poll results in old topics like these.... it goes to show how little people know about where bitcoin is headed, and how many people underestimate its potential.

Only ~8% were right about it reaching $1000 this year.


I just hope we continue seeing these huge surprising growth spurts while I'm in the game.




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December 25, 2013, 12:42:53 AM
 #88

Think about it - all the people voting or replying in this topic could have bought bitcoins at $15 after they hit send. Instead, most of them didn't because they were expecting 0.10$ coins.

Now, we see exactly the same thing different magnitude, people waiting for 10$ coins while afraid of buying $500 coins Smiley So funny, especially since many of the people are the same Smiley Dig it up at 10k and we'll share another laugh at short-sightedness of some.

I am waiting for the 500 USD coins...do you think it will go down now? It doesn't look like it...

it was there just several days ago! you could have bought. now, no idea.

It went down to $500 twice during the recent bubble.
You still have time before end of the year, I think next year we will go up until next bubble.
Unless catastrophic news, of course..

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December 25, 2013, 02:10:41 AM
 #89

funny thread
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December 25, 2013, 06:17:24 PM
 #90

http://images.t-nation.com/forum_images/4/0/403df_ORIG-this_thread_delivers3.gif

1MMXsbUPUBXiw2XJmLafABj4P6koSBRhss
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December 25, 2013, 07:38:50 PM
 #91

Only ~8% were right about it reaching $1000 this year.


Much less, was like 3% originally. Most correct guesses are people answering now, for whatever reason.

Frankly, nobody expected $100 this year. I thought we'd be lucky to establish a foothold above 30. But bitcoin ignored the exponential uptrend, as if it's some kind of turtle, then ignored the heavy crash from $265, and now ignoring the "OMG BITCOIN IS DEAD" china crash even faster than before.

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December 16, 2015, 10:39:05 AM
 #92

great read
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December 16, 2015, 03:53:20 PM
 #93

great read

great necro Wink

my guess: we'll see $1000 again in April 2016

EDIT: only 15% got it right the first time Wink

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December 16, 2015, 03:55:21 PM
 #94

Not going to happen.  Never.

quoted for future reference

referenced from future Wink

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December 16, 2015, 11:02:46 PM
 #95


I completely forgot about this thing (so thanks for the 'reference from future' which put it on my list.)

Looks from the bolding and the timestamps like I had voted right.  Nice to be right even if it was probably a fairly uneducated guess.  I think that my mindset from back in those days would have been, yes, we'd hit $1000 by 2014 on the way to a higher spike then we actually saw, then fall back down for around a year.

When we did hit the 1oz-Au mark and dropped, I extrapolated both the exponential nature of the previous spikes (40, 250, 1200) AND the length of time spent in a trough and run-up pattern and concluded that it looked like it might be a few years before then next spike (hopefully into the 5-figure USD range.)  I hoped for better, but prepared to sit on my hands for an extended period and wait it out.


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December 17, 2015, 04:19:38 AM
 #96

I voted Within 51-112 years.

Although I'm probably wrong. Perhaps it could be sooner. Just perhaps.
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December 17, 2015, 03:13:56 PM
 #97

I voted Within 51-112 years.

Although I'm probably wrong. Perhaps it could be sooner. Just perhaps.

I think it can go sooner that much year it will go to 5000 dollars is we are lucky that bitcoin will grow.
I think in 2 years we will just reach 1000 dollars and perhaps it will just be stable around it.
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December 17, 2015, 09:38:33 PM
 #98

I think in 2 years we will just reach 1000 dollars and perhaps it will just be stable around it.

Stable around $1000? I can't imagine.

I think $30,000 in 2 years is more likely than $1000.

I also think $30 in 2 years is more likely than $1000.


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December 17, 2015, 09:41:23 PM
 #99

I voted like other 20% for the second option Within 2-5 years, this target is not far comparing to 5 years.

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December 17, 2015, 10:53:02 PM
 #100

I voted Within 51-112 years.

Although I'm probably wrong. Perhaps it could be sooner. Just perhaps.

I think it can go sooner that much year it will go to 5000 dollars is we are lucky that bitcoin will grow.
I think in 2 years we will just reach 1000 dollars and perhaps it will just be stable around it.
If you said price will touch $1000, okay it's not big enough but you said we can touch $5000. Pretty sure it's too high. We will not touch $5000
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December 18, 2015, 01:25:06 AM
 #101

I voted Within 51-112 years.

Although I'm probably wrong. Perhaps it could be sooner. Just perhaps.

I think it can go sooner that much year it will go to 5000 dollars is we are lucky that bitcoin will grow.
I think in 2 years we will just reach 1000 dollars and perhaps it will just be stable around it.
If you said price will touch $1000, okay it's not big enough but you said we can touch $5000. Pretty sure it's too high. We will not touch $5000

Guaranteed to definitely touch $5000
Only question is when
Even if bitcoin becomes  a relic in the future 200 years from now
Many people would like to have one for sentimental reasons if it even reminded them if the past etc
You should see some of the worthless garbage that get traded in auctions for lots of money
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December 18, 2015, 02:00:44 AM
 #102

Maybe Xmas gift?

I don't know when, but I would like to be by Xmas, of course
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August 05, 2016, 07:09:52 PM
 #103

in 2017, it can ...

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August 05, 2016, 07:12:57 PM
 #104

in 2017, it can ...


Anyone can estimate a date of death or rise with extrapolation of data. The real answer for this question is somewhere between today and the end of the universe. So we have about 0.5 * 10^103 years on average. Better get some popcorn.
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August 06, 2016, 04:16:14 AM
 #105

in 2017, it can ...

[i m g]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img923/9946/T3lS10.jpg[/img]
Anyone can estimate a date of death or rise with extrapolation of data. The real answer for this question is somewhere between today and the end of the universe. So we have about 0.5 * 10^103 years on average. Better get some popcorn.

i agree. all these extrapolations, analysis and colorful line drawing on the charts are good for getting a feel of what is happening but bitcoin never follows any of these type of speculation. the $1000 can be reached in 1 week or even never.

Backside walkaround
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August 06, 2016, 04:42:43 AM
 #106

in 2017, it can ...


Yezzir, it sure could.  But a lot of people said that about 2016 and probably 2015 also.  I myself am hoping for a slow upward incline of price.  A sustainable price.  You knew in 2013 that it was rising far too fast to stay at that level for long.  At the time it did indeed look like it might hit $5000 or more.  Ah the good old days...

If the original Backside walkaround can prove to me they are the old owner of this account, I can update the email address to the email address of their choosing.
Backside walkaround has lost access to their account as they used someone else's email address to sign up, and the owner of the email address got tired of random email notifications from this site after a few months and reset the password.
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