[Poll] How long until $1000 per 1 Bitcoin?

[ElectricMucus]

The market eventually and always catches up to fundamentals.

[Frequency]

Right now, we have an internet "currency" that is difficult (or at least cumbersome) for the average person to figure out.  It is hard to move money in and out of exchanges, and history tells us using the exchanges is risky, since many of them have closed up and ran off with peoples money. OTC trades are even more risky.

Once you have your BTC, you have to take ridiculous measures to ensure your wallet isn't somehow hacked.  You can skip this step, but doing that has cost people on this forum a metric shit-ton of money..  

Once you take these security measures, you can finally spend your BTC, if you so chose....but wait! what are you going to buy? The btc market mostly consist of virtual items, black/grey market items, and trinkets...and if you are lucky, the seller will value his "rep" more than your money, and actually sends you the item (or doesn't scam you with a fake item) because there is no way to chargeback.... you could go with escrow, but thats another extra step that shouldn't be needed just to by a bitcoin keychain or whatever.

Add in a poisonous community that scams each other at every given turn (just look at all the ponzis and other scams), and you can see why I dont think this will go anywhere.




I think its cumbersome nature and main userbase aren't going to be changed anytime soon, and certainly not before scammers run this shit into the ground.

In every marketplace people ar scamming or getting scammed this is totally not related to btc but to people itself... also i think that globalisation as it takes place the last 10years thru the internet will grow en needs an currency by itself .. Only paypal with there scams are reachebel for the mass becourse of its easy to use.. My 10 year old already shows me how to use an ipad properly so his generation will easily figure out bitcoin thats why btc or something like btc will be succesfull in the near future.. Not becourse you find it hard to understand it means nobody will adopt it ..

Also if criminels or so is to be the first to use its bennifits why not the mass later when it is proven to work..
Us fbi en cia were catching drugtrafficers from mexico to get there dope ..then they realised they should go to other side of the freeway to catch the return cash dollars the dope was sold for so they specialized in money finding dogs ect. We just wait till the mexicans en colombians find out about btc then what will happen..!!!

I think we will be at 100$ in 2016   sorry for my poor english

[evolve]

usability: people use excel just fine and many are even able to setup an ebay auction. I don't think using blockchain.info wallet or android bitcoin wallets is very hard. I agree usability can and will be increased, but that's definitely not what can make bitcoin fail.

Usability can definitely make bitcoin fail, because it creates a high barrier of entry that the average person isnt going to bother with. Hell, it took me three months after I discovered bitcoin to actually buy some, just because of the hassle it took to get money on the exchanges... and this was before the mtgox hack...now you need to show passports and other ID and wait even longer for money to enter/leave your account (which is why i havent added anymore to the system beyond my initial deposit.


Add in the complexity of the system (which isnt that hard to figure out, but does take a good deal of research to use), the fact that most people are not very computer literate (beyond basics like email, miscrosoft office, etc), and a block chain that's bloated to a few gigs (and gets worse everyday) and takes forever to download, and you end up with a giant hassle that most people wont bother with.

Can these problems be solved? Some of them, yes. Can they all be fixed before BTC becomes a distant memory? I doubt it

scammers will run bitcoin to the ground: If that was likely, it would already have happened. Look at all the shit that has gone down, yet the community is growing... and learning. It's a social problem. With a non-chargebackable currency, you have to do business slightly differently and the technologies do support this (wot and stuff) are currently being evolved.

The very nature of a psuedo-anonymous currency (because its not truly anonymous, and traffic analysis can reveal a LOT) makes it prone to scamming.  I've seen people run off from this forum with a few hundred thousand dollars, and guess what? There isn't a single bit of recourse. If someone runs off with my cash, at least I can get police/legal help.  The cops arent going to investigate someone taking your imaginary internet money.

In my opinion, it is naive to think that rampant scamming doesnt affect the userbase. When just about every article on btc is about a crash or a hack or a scam, people are going to be weary of using it (and even more so when they see the barrier to entry).   Hell, I wont use any other exchange but MT gox because it seems like every other month a new one goes down (and takes its users money and runs) and I only half trust mygox not to steal my cash (another reason I wont put more money in the system).



You can keep a influx of new rubes going for a little while (particularly with raising BTC prices), but that wont last forever. People will get sick of jamming thier dicks into beehives and losing all their money (and have, I dont see half the users I remember when I joined the forum, the lack of old timers should be concerning).  

Look at the volume, with the exception of the bottom of the original bubble, its never really reached the level it had at the peak of the bubble...in fact, it looks downright anemic compared to how it was...how many times can that happen before it drops to almost nothing (meaning no users trading)?

I call BS, you just want cheap coins again.

Thats cute, but I measure my profits in USD, not BTC.  The price of BTC is meaningless to me, all I care about is whether or not the days movement beats the spread/fees and whether or not there is a clear trend.  If the answer is no, I stay in dollars (in fact, I stay in USD most of the time, unless I see a clear opportunity to make a profit so Im not exposed if/when there is a crash)

[johnyj]

There are many investment instruments, the only reason people buying it is because the price is rising fast and steady. (From mathematical and statistical point of view, a projection of future price appreciationg can be made). Given limited and shrinking supply of BTC, once the exchange become less a problem, the price development will accelerate by itself

[gimme_bottles]

Look at the volume, with the exception of the bottom of the original bubble, its never really reached the level it had at the peak of the bubble...in fact, it looks downright anemic compared to how it was...how many times can that happen before it drops to almost nothing (meaning no users trading)?

you know that is only MtGox' volume, right? at the times of the bubble, MtGox was in fact the only exchange to trade BTC. by now there are more and more alternatives and the overall volume starts to spread more and more over different exchanges, which is, IMO, very healthy for bitcoin.

[evolve]

Mt Gox has always had the lions share of the BTC market volume (which is why it is almost always used as the metric when discussing price/volume).

Since I was talking about historical volume, its the only chart that is relevant to the discussion.

[molecular]

usability: people use excel just fine and many are even able to setup an ebay auction. I don't think using blockchain.info wallet or android bitcoin wallets is very hard. I agree usability can and will be increased, but that's definitely not what can make bitcoin fail.

Usability can definitely make bitcoin fail, because it creates a high barrier of entry that the average person isnt going to bother with. Hell, it took me three months after I discovered bitcoin to actually buy some, just because of the hassle it took to get money on the exchanges... and this was before the mtgox hack...now you need to show passports and other ID and wait even longer for money to enter/leave your account (which is why i havent added anymore to the system beyond my initial deposit.

There are many more ways than mtgox to buy bitcoins. Just this week I had a total noob buy €250 worth of coins from me through localbitcoins.com. Why did he pay the hefty fee? Because it was easier than mtGox. Also in Europe, there's bitcoin.de. Works like a charm. Also much easier than gox and very small wait of 1-2 day SEPA transfer to the seller.

Earlier you spoke about usability in terms of client... at least I had the impression. After I took the wind out these sails you switched to "problems using exchange". Now I took the wind out of these sails, too. At least to an extent. I'm not saying bitcoin can't be easier to use, but it's easy enough already. Whoever wants bitcoins can get them. Rather quickly and cheaply (<10%), too.

Add in the complexity of the system (which isnt that hard to figure out, but does take a good deal of research to use) and the fact that most people are not very computer literate (beyond basics like email, miscrosoft office, etc) and a block chain that's bloated to a few gigs (and gets worse everyday) which takes forever to download, and you end up with a giant hassle that most people wont bother with.

Most sites/communities that introduce bitcoin send people to blockchain.info or some other reasonably secure online wallet.

Can these problems be solved? Some of them, yes. Can they all be fixed before BTC becomes a distant memory? I doubt it

Of course they can. They're in the process of being solved. Why would BTC become a distant memory? Have you looked at the news and markets lately? Is there anything that looks even remotely like it [c|w]ould replace BTC or cryptocurrency in general?

scammers will run bitcoin to the ground: If that was likely, it would already have happened. Look at all the shit that has gone down, yet the community is growing... and learning. It's a social problem. With a non-chargebackable currency, you have to do business slightly differently and the technologies do support this (wot and stuff) are currently being evolved.

The very nature of a psuedo-anonymous (because its not truly anonymous, and traffic analysis can reveal a LOT) currency makes it prone to scamming.  I've seen people run off from this forum with a few hundred thousand dollars, and guess what? There isn't a single bit of recourse. If someone runs off with my cash, at least I can get police/legal help.  The cops arent going to investigate someone taking your imaginary internet money.

In my opinion, it is naive to think that rampant scamming doesnt affect the userbase. When just about every article on btc is about a crash or a hack or a scam, people are going to be weary of using it (and even more so when they see the barrier to entry).   Hell, I wont use any other exchange but MT gox because it seems like every other month a new one goes down (and takes its users money and runs) and I only half trust mygox not to steal my cash (another reason I wont put more money in the system).

You see what you want to see. It's called selective perception. I seem to suffer from it, too: I almost exclusively seem to find good news about bitcoin recently.

You can keep a influx of new rubes going for a little while (particularly with raising BTC prices), but that wont last forever. People will get sick of jamming thier dicks into beehives and losing all their money (and have, I dont see half the users I remember when I joined the forum, the lack of old timers should be concerning).  

Look at the volume, with the exception of the bottom of the original bubble, its never really reached the level it had at the peak of the bubble...in fact, it looks downright anemic compared to how it was...how many times can that happen before it drops to almost nothing (meaning no users trading)?

Firstly: check that checkbox labeled "volume in currency". Secondly: that's only mtGox. It used to have 90% of the volume. Now it's more like 60%, probably even less depending on how you measure. A lot of trades take place off-exchange and that's a good thing.

I call BS, you just want cheap coins again.

Thats cute,

well, I was teasing you bit.

but I measure my profits in USD, not BTC.  The price of BTC is meaningless to me, all I care about is whether or not the days movement beats the spread/fees and whether or not there is a clear trend.

I can now understand why your early acquaintances on these forums are mostly gone by now.

EDIT: fixed quoting

[jl2012]

Mt Gox has always had the lions share of the BTC market volume (which is why it is almost always used as the metric when discussing price/volume).

Since I was talking about historical volume, its the only chart that is relevant to the discussion.

MtGox volume is 60% of the total volume (excluding OTC trade) so you need to divide its volume by 0.6

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/

[evolve]

There are many more ways than mtgox to buy bitcoins. Just this week I had a total noob buy €250 worth of coins from me through localbitcoins.com. Why did he pay the hefty fee? Because it was easier than mtGox.

I've already spoken about OTC trades, the problem is that it leaves you very open to scammers (hell we have a whole board on this forum specifically for scam accusations) unless you FTF or escrow.

Earlier you spoke about usability in terms of client... at least I had the impression. After I took the wind out these sails you switched to "problems using exchange". Now I took the wind out of these sails, too.

What in the fuck are you talking about?

The client isnt user freindly, takes a good deal of research to use, takes a lot of time to download, your average person is computer illiterate (read:likely to delete thier wallet, send to the wrong address, etc), and it requires a lot of steps to keep your money secure.

The exchanges are a hassle to get money in and out of, leave you open to having your money stolen by the owner of the exchange (as we have seen a shitload of times), most require an ID (so much for anonymity), and (if you are lucky enough) you might not get your money stolen in a hack.

Where exactly do you think you "took the wind out of my sails"?  

Most sites/communities that introduce bitcoin send people to blockchain.info or some other reasonably secure online wallet.

Yeah, history shows us that's another good way to get your money stolen by a hacker or the owner shutting down and stealing it.

MtGox volume is 60% of the total volume (excluding OTC trade) so you need to divide its volume by 0.6

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/

Even with the other exchanges volume added in, it still doesn't bring total volume anywhere close to mt.goxs peak in 2011

[meanig]

The client isnt user freindly, takes a good deal of research to use, your average person is computer illiterate (read:likely to delete thier wallet, send to the wrong address, etc), and requires a lot of steps to keep your money secure. The exchanges are a hassle to use, leave you open to having your money stolen by the owner of the exchange (as we have seen a shitload of times), most require an ID (so much for anonymity), and if you are lucky enough you might not get your money stolen in a hack.

When people have an incentive to learn no amount of hassle or research reading is going to stop them from figuring it out. Just browse the silkroad subreddit sometime and see how quickly college students and ex hippy baby boomers pick up PGP and coin tumbling.

[kokjo]

why is "within 2 weeks", not an option?

[waspoza]

I can now understand why your early acquaintances on these forums are mostly gone by now.

EDIT: fixed quoting

Yeah, they had tons of coins and sold all for pennies. And now they just can't watch the price rise cuz it hurts. 

[BlackBison]

Yeah, they had tons of coins and sold all for pennies. And now they just can't watch the price rise cuz it hurts. 

Well they better get used to it as its gonna hurt a hell of a lot more in the future 

[SgtSpike]

I agree with evolve to an extent.  The current Bitcoin-QT is a huge barrier to a large number of potential users.  Blockchain.info is a perfect replacement (in that it is newbie-friendly and a web interface similar to what they already use for online banking), but for some reason, we aren't pushing newbies towards it from the bitcoin.org page.

Scams and thefts absolutely affect userbase as well.  Without the multiple hundreds-of-thousands-of-dollars-worth hacks, I am sure we would have a userbase at least double what it is now.  But even I am a bit afraid of keeping a large number of coins, just for the "what if" scenarios.  I can keep them on the QT client, but what if malware somehow infects my computer?  I could print a paper wallet, but what if my house burned down?  I could put said paper in a safe, but what if the safe was stolen?  I could put a copy at someone else's house, but what if they lose it and I am relying on something that isn't there as a backup?  Or what if someone steals it from their house?  I could encrypt it, but what if I forget the password?  I could write down the password, but where do I store it?  I could do one of those funky multi-key printed wallets, but what if it doesn't work?  Or what if too many n of m papers are lost, so I cannot piece it back together?

I just can't think of any way for me to store Bitcoins without making me nervous, especially as the dollar value of my holdings grow.  There isn't any insurance or other backups of said holdings.  It's not like my bank account, where if I see a charge I don't recognize, I can get my money back.  Once Bitcoins are gone, they're gone.  And once people understand that, I can imagine many of them have similar fears as I do.

All of this said, I do believe Bitcoin is an incredible technology, and I very much believe it will eventually be very successful.  I just think that it still has some serious walls to break down prior to that success.

[ElectricMucus]

I agree with evolve to an extent.  The current Bitcoin-QT is a huge barrier to a large number of potential users.  Blockchain.info is a perfect replacement (in that it is newbie-friendly and a web interface similar to what they already use for online banking), but for some reason, we aren't pushing newbies towards it from the bitcoin.org page

Yes, one major hindrance for bitcoins future are technical limitations on possible innovations in comparison to competition. (By that I mean real competition, not the half witted "alternate cryptocurrencies" we have today.)
Potential innovators must be convinced bitcoin can be improved sufficiently to suit their interests so that they do not introduce a competing concept.

[tvbcof]

...
I can assure you I now feel a lot safer than before. 80% of my coins are in my brain and I'm sleeping like a baby.

Of course it has drawbacks: the coins will be lost should I die or have a brain fuckup that makes me forget the passphrase or method or bitcoin.
...

Or, as has been discussed, someone does some 'enhanced interrogation' on your ass.  If BTC values go ballistic I don't even consider the possibility to be wildly fringe.  For my part, I specifically don't keep my offline storage in a mode which is accessible in this way for that reason, and it goes farther than just my BTC holdings.  Call me paranoid I guess.

As for trying to remember a pass phrase, I learned long ago...and much more cheaply than losing a wallet.dat...not to try that.  It just does not work for me, but YMMV.

[conspirosphere.tk]

I solved the paranoia thing doing much redundant encrypted wallet backups, with a not-dictionary password that I use daily from several years. In case my fortune will increase significantly I'll subdivide it among several wallets.

But I think the major BTC drawback is the 10 minutes thing to get safe tx: too much. That is a reason why I am expecting that some faster alt.coin like Terracoins could soon become a serious competitor. Another reason is that alt.coins are much more rewarding to latecomer miners -and for every miner post-ASICs.

[molecular]

...
I can assure you I now feel a lot safer than before. 80% of my coins are in my brain and I'm sleeping like a baby.

Of course it has drawbacks: the coins will be lost should I die or have a brain fuckup that makes me forget the passphrase or method or bitcoin.
...

Or, as has been discussed, someone does some 'enhanced interrogation' on your ass.  If BTC values go ballistic I don't even consider the possibility to be wildly fringe.  For my part, I specifically don't keep my offline storage in a mode which is accessible in this way for that reason, and it goes farther than just my BTC holdings.  Call me paranoid I guess.

As for trying to remember a pass phrase, I learned long ago...and much more cheaply than losing a wallet.dat...not to try that.  It just does not work for me, but YMMV.

You got a point about the interrogation. I'll probably diversify accross storage modes. So if anyone plans to torture me for the passphrase: best do it before bitcoin reaches $100.

[mskryxz]

so many ppl wrong

[Wilhelm]

so many ppl wrong

I was right but I also just voted