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Author Topic: Avalon asics shipping right now (?)... short term price effects?  (Read 3346 times)
chriswilmer
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January 20, 2013, 12:33:01 PM
 #1

Speculate!
(My guess: I think there will be problems, general disappointment and a short term price fall)
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Luno
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January 20, 2013, 12:40:45 PM
 #2

I think a short term effect is unimportant. The same number of coins being mined by a lucky few result in a price rise.

Not being able to mine, if you don't have an ASIC don't make you sell everything, quite the opposite.

                                                                               
                
                                                       ╓▄▌██P                  
                                                 ╔▄▌███▀███▌                   
                                           ▄▄▌██▀▀╚  ╓██╩██                    
                                     ▄▄███▀▀╙      ▄██  ▓█                     
                               ▄▌███▀▀+          ▄█▀   ▐█                      
                        ,▄▌███▀▀¬              ▓█▀     █▄                      
                  ,▄▌███▀▀                  ,██▀      █▌                       
               '█████▌▄▄,                 ╓██╩       ██                        
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                        ▀██▄        ▓█▀██          █▀                          
                           ▀██▄  ,██▀   █µ        ██                           
                              ▀███Z     ██       ██                            
                                ▐██     ▐█      ▄█                             
                              ,,╓╓█▓▄▌   █▌    ▐█U                             
                        º▄▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓███   ▀█    █▌                              
                          ▀█▓▓▓▓▓████▀█▌  █▌  ██                               
                            ▀███████▌  ▀█µ▀█ ██                                
                              ▀█████     ███▓█                                 
                                ▐███      ▀██Ñ                                 
                                            ▀                             

ElectricMucus
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January 20, 2013, 12:47:38 PM
 #3

If they really ship, there could be a slight dip in prices for the period where the new difficulty sets in since there are more coins released than usual during the period.
Once competition kicks in that effect will be (more than) negated however.

Is it confirmed that they ship anyay?
chriswilmer
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January 20, 2013, 12:53:28 PM
 #4

This graphic does not inspire confidence...

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January 20, 2013, 02:06:27 PM
 #5

if the chips (er devices) are indeed good  Shocked  Shocked  Shocked
then I suspect that we will have a long and sustained rally as all the ASIC distributors come on-line.

I believe many (rich) investors are holding back until they can:

a: Invest heavily in ASIC mining. (to strengthen their Bitcoin Investment)

b: Have confidence that Bitcoin will not be attacked via a malicious 51% attack (funded by a bank or government).


As (A) happens more and more; (b) will happen more and more.  Thus investors will be happy to invest more and more.

So I suspect the price to go up, and keep on going up.  Grin

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January 20, 2013, 02:09:17 PM
 #6

Oh, this is the cheif reason why we haven't seen rich investors build very large GPU farms:  Because they don't want an investment that will be made redundant.

ASIC miners do not have this characteristics.   Once a mining company can prove that they are not a scam.  I believe that they will be booked out for as many as they can make.

One off NP-Hard.
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January 20, 2013, 02:10:46 PM
 #7

as far as i know the pronounced avalon shipment date was only for a small batch of ASIC units. so i think the real rally will start when two ASIC companies start shipping their finished product in large batches, so they become available to a wide public.
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January 20, 2013, 02:31:43 PM
 #8

If they really ship, there could be a slight dip in prices for the period where the new difficulty sets in since there are more coins released than usual during the period.
Once competition kicks in that effect will be (more than) negated however.

Is it confirmed that they ship anyay?

Just this post https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=137534.0;topicseen
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January 20, 2013, 04:23:43 PM
 #9

- The first batch is supposed to be 300 units.
- Avalon mentioned before that they plan to ship the first batch within a 2 week-time frame.
- The current network is 20,000 GH/s strong.
- 1 of their ASICs is claimed to mine at 60 GH/s. 300*60GH/s=18,000 GH/s maximum ~ 50% of the total network.
- The next difficulty change happens in about 3 1/2 days.
- Then 2016 blocks can be mined till next difficulty adjustment.

Question 1
: How many % of all blocks (= bitcoins) can be mined by ASICs in that 2016 interval, given the 2 week shipping periode?
Question 2: Thus, how much more Bitcoins are generated then usual? ->(Could be poured on the market?)


Sorry for the facts I didnt back up with citations (couldnt be bothered right now).
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January 20, 2013, 06:08:35 PM
 #10

I believe the ASICs is bought by bullish people, and the operational cost isn't high. I don't see why they will sell their BTC immediately.
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January 20, 2013, 07:12:33 PM
 #11

I believe the ASICs is bought by bullish people, and the operational cost isn't high. I don't see why they will sell their BTC immediately.

The idea is that more BTC will be mined then usual in from the moment ASICs hit till first difficulty adjustment. Then those people would wanna be first to the market to offset their costs and also to be first before those who got theirs later will dump and thus bring the price down.
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January 20, 2013, 07:18:17 PM
 #12

In my huble opinnion irrational peole will do more and larger random thigs because of this. It should not affect the exchange rates or volumes either way.. but it can, I however cant work out if these indivisuals will be selling or buying.

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January 20, 2013, 07:49:12 PM
 #13

Looks good

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January 20, 2013, 07:51:32 PM
 #14

this is precisely why price will continue to go up, "asic looks good"  Smiley

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January 20, 2013, 07:54:51 PM
 #15

With the number shipped so far there will be a slight increase in BTC supply next week, followed by a slight decrease then the blockchain corrects.  If the owners of these ASICS are BTC sellers then the price may go down a slight bit.  Maybe. 

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January 20, 2013, 07:59:50 PM
 #16

With the number shipped so far there will be a slight increase in BTC supply next week, followed by a slight decrease then the blockchain corrects.  If the owners of these ASICS are BTC sellers then the price may go down a slight bit.  Maybe. 
25 * 6 * 24  3600.. not exactly the sort of volumes that do much anything to exchange rates these days.

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chriswilmer
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January 20, 2013, 11:05:06 PM
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All of the arithmetic on bitcoin production and difficulty doesn't interest me in particular. I think the exchange rate will be more greatly impacted by broader concepts like "confidence in bitcoin" or lack thereof. Even if the ASICs are shipped, they may suffer from technical problems (maybe they will wear out?), and so forth. The frustration may make some walk away from the bitcoin experiment altogether.
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January 20, 2013, 11:08:44 PM
 #18

All of the arithmetic on bitcoin production and difficulty doesn't interest me in particular. I think the exchange rate will be more greatly impacted by broader concepts like "confidence in bitcoin" or lack thereof. Even if the ASICs are shipped, they may suffer from technical problems (maybe they will wear out?), and so forth. The frustration may make some walk away from the bitcoin experiment altogether.

Indeed. But by this point the serious miners are aware of the pitfalls and won't walk away so easily. New users should not be heavily invested in mining.

Mining is becoming its own industry and is no longer for those faint of heart.

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January 21, 2013, 01:08:25 PM
 #19

There is only 3600 BTC to be generated every day anyway, eventually the electricity will become the only factor that stopping people from mining, so an invester with long term perspective will consider investing in low cost engergy source, the future BTC tycoon is a water power plant owner  Grin

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January 21, 2013, 03:05:27 PM
 #20

I believe the ASICs is bought by bullish people, and the operational cost isn't high. I don't see why they will sell their BTC immediately.

The idea is that more BTC will be mined then usual in from the moment ASICs hit till first difficulty adjustment. Then those people would wanna be first to the market to offset their costs and also to be first before those who got theirs later will dump and thus bring the price down.

Just let them dump. In a bull run like this dumping 3600BTC/day is just nothing

While pre-ordering Avalon might be their smartest investment ever, dumping the bitcoins mined by Avalon will be their stupidest investment ever.

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