Bitcoin Forum
November 21, 2017, 06:11:26 PM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.15.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: [1] 2 »  All
  Print  
Author Topic: Avalon asics shipping right now (?)... short term price effects?  (Read 3320 times)
chriswilmer
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1008


View Profile WWW
January 20, 2013, 12:33:01 PM
 #1

Speculate!
(My guess: I think there will be problems, general disappointment and a short term price fall)
Join ICO Now Coinlancer is Disrupting the Freelance marketplace!
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1511287886
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1511287886

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1511287886
Reply with quote  #2

1511287886
Report to moderator
1511287886
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1511287886

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1511287886
Reply with quote  #2

1511287886
Report to moderator
1511287886
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1511287886

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1511287886
Reply with quote  #2

1511287886
Report to moderator
Luno
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 476


Current balance: 00$$/00BTC


View Profile
January 20, 2013, 12:40:45 PM
 #2

I think a short term effect is unimportant. The same number of coins being mined by a lucky few result in a price rise.

Not being able to mine, if you don't have an ASIC don't make you sell everything, quite the opposite.


 
 
           ▄████▄
         ▄████████▄
       ▄████████████▄
     ▄████████████████▄
    ████████████████████      ▄█▄                 ▄███▄                 ▄███▄                 ▄████████████████▀   ▄██████████

  ▄▄▄▀█████▀▄▄▄▄▀█████▀▄▄▄     ▀██▄             ▄██▀ ▀██▄             ▄██▀ ▀██▄             ▄██▀                   ██
▄█████▄▀▀▀▄██████▄▀▀▀▄█████▄     ▀██▄         ▄██▀     ▀██▄         ▄██▀     ▀██▄         ▄██▀        ▄█▄          ▀██████████████▄
████████████████████████████       ▀██▄     ▄██▀         ▀██▄     ▄██▀         ▀██▄     ▄██▀          ▀█▀                        ██
 ▀████████████████████████▀          ▀██▄ ▄██▀             ▀██▄ ▄██▀     ▄█▄     ▀██▄ ▄██▀                                       ██
   ▀████████████████████▀              ▀███▀                 ▀███▀       ▀█▀       ▀███▀      ▄███████████████████████████████████▀
     ▀████████████████▀
       ▀████████████▀
         ▀████████▀
           ▀████▀
║║


║║
.
.

║║
██
║║
.
.

║║
██
║║
.
║║


║║
ElectricMucus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1568


Drama Junkie


View Profile
January 20, 2013, 12:47:38 PM
 #3

If they really ship, there could be a slight dip in prices for the period where the new difficulty sets in since there are more coins released than usual during the period.
Once competition kicks in that effect will be (more than) negated however.

Is it confirmed that they ship anyay?

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
chriswilmer
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1008


View Profile WWW
January 20, 2013, 12:53:28 PM
 #4

This graphic does not inspire confidence...

da2ce7
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1222


Live and Let Live


View Profile
January 20, 2013, 02:06:27 PM
 #5

if the chips (er devices) are indeed good  Shocked  Shocked  Shocked
then I suspect that we will have a long and sustained rally as all the ASIC distributors come on-line.

I believe many (rich) investors are holding back until they can:

a: Invest heavily in ASIC mining. (to strengthen their Bitcoin Investment)

b: Have confidence that Bitcoin will not be attacked via a malicious 51% attack (funded by a bank or government).


As (A) happens more and more; (b) will happen more and more.  Thus investors will be happy to invest more and more.

So I suspect the price to go up, and keep on going up.  Grin

One off NP-Hard.
da2ce7
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1222


Live and Let Live


View Profile
January 20, 2013, 02:09:17 PM
 #6

Oh, this is the cheif reason why we haven't seen rich investors build very large GPU farms:  Because they don't want an investment that will be made redundant.

ASIC miners do not have this characteristics.   Once a mining company can prove that they are not a scam.  I believe that they will be booked out for as many as they can make.

One off NP-Hard.
gimme_bottles
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 317



View Profile
January 20, 2013, 02:10:46 PM
 #7

as far as i know the pronounced avalon shipment date was only for a small batch of ASIC units. so i think the real rally will start when two ASIC companies start shipping their finished product in large batches, so they become available to a wide public.
waspoza
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 602


Firstbits: 1waspoza


View Profile
January 20, 2013, 02:31:43 PM
 #8

If they really ship, there could be a slight dip in prices for the period where the new difficulty sets in since there are more coins released than usual during the period.
Once competition kicks in that effect will be (more than) negated however.

Is it confirmed that they ship anyay?

Just this post https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=137534.0;topicseen
Spekulatius
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1022



View Profile
January 20, 2013, 04:23:43 PM
 #9

- The first batch is supposed to be 300 units.
- Avalon mentioned before that they plan to ship the first batch within a 2 week-time frame.
- The current network is 20,000 GH/s strong.
- 1 of their ASICs is claimed to mine at 60 GH/s. 300*60GH/s=18,000 GH/s maximum ~ 50% of the total network.
- The next difficulty change happens in about 3 1/2 days.
- Then 2016 blocks can be mined till next difficulty adjustment.

Question 1
: How many % of all blocks (= bitcoins) can be mined by ASICs in that 2016 interval, given the 2 week shipping periode?
Question 2: Thus, how much more Bitcoins are generated then usual? ->(Could be poured on the market?)


Sorry for the facts I didnt back up with citations (couldnt be bothered right now).
Kupsi
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1191


9.9.2012: I predict that single digits... <- FAIL


View Profile
January 20, 2013, 06:08:35 PM
 #10

I believe the ASICs is bought by bullish people, and the operational cost isn't high. I don't see why they will sell their BTC immediately.
Spekulatius
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1022



View Profile
January 20, 2013, 07:12:33 PM
 #11

I believe the ASICs is bought by bullish people, and the operational cost isn't high. I don't see why they will sell their BTC immediately.

The idea is that more BTC will be mined then usual in from the moment ASICs hit till first difficulty adjustment. Then those people would wanna be first to the market to offset their costs and also to be first before those who got theirs later will dump and thus bring the price down.
Isokivi
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 910


Items flashing here available at btctrinkets.com


View Profile WWW
January 20, 2013, 07:18:17 PM
 #12

In my huble opinnion irrational peole will do more and larger random thigs because of this. It should not affect the exchange rates or volumes either way.. but it can, I however cant work out if these indivisuals will be selling or buying.

Bitcoin trinkets now on my online store: btc trinkets.com <- Bitcoin Tiepins, cufflinks, lapel pins, keychains, card holders and challenge coins.
lucif
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 448


Clown prophet


View Profile
January 20, 2013, 07:49:12 PM
 #13

Looks good

adamstgBit
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1904


Trusted Bitcoiner


View Profile WWW
January 20, 2013, 07:51:32 PM
 #14

this is precisely why price will continue to go up, "asic looks good"  Smiley

Littleshop
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1316



View Profile WWW
January 20, 2013, 07:54:51 PM
 #15

With the number shipped so far there will be a slight increase in BTC supply next week, followed by a slight decrease then the blockchain corrects.  If the owners of these ASICS are BTC sellers then the price may go down a slight bit.  Maybe. 

Isokivi
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 910


Items flashing here available at btctrinkets.com


View Profile WWW
January 20, 2013, 07:59:50 PM
 #16

With the number shipped so far there will be a slight increase in BTC supply next week, followed by a slight decrease then the blockchain corrects.  If the owners of these ASICS are BTC sellers then the price may go down a slight bit.  Maybe. 
25 * 6 * 24  3600.. not exactly the sort of volumes that do much anything to exchange rates these days.

Bitcoin trinkets now on my online store: btc trinkets.com <- Bitcoin Tiepins, cufflinks, lapel pins, keychains, card holders and challenge coins.
chriswilmer
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1008


View Profile WWW
January 20, 2013, 11:05:06 PM
 #17

All of the arithmetic on bitcoin production and difficulty doesn't interest me in particular. I think the exchange rate will be more greatly impacted by broader concepts like "confidence in bitcoin" or lack thereof. Even if the ASICs are shipped, they may suffer from technical problems (maybe they will wear out?), and so forth. The frustration may make some walk away from the bitcoin experiment altogether.
Hexadecibel
Human Intranet Liason
VIP
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 563


I still <3 u Satoshi


View Profile
January 20, 2013, 11:08:44 PM
 #18

All of the arithmetic on bitcoin production and difficulty doesn't interest me in particular. I think the exchange rate will be more greatly impacted by broader concepts like "confidence in bitcoin" or lack thereof. Even if the ASICs are shipped, they may suffer from technical problems (maybe they will wear out?), and so forth. The frustration may make some walk away from the bitcoin experiment altogether.

Indeed. But by this point the serious miners are aware of the pitfalls and won't walk away so easily. New users should not be heavily invested in mining.

Mining is becoming its own industry and is no longer for those faint of heart.

Avoid the Censored /r/Bitcoin on Reddit.
/r/BTC allows open discussion, and public moderation logs.
Read Satoshi's White paper: http://nakamotoinstitute.org/bitcoin/
johnyj
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1834


Beyond Imagination


View Profile
January 21, 2013, 01:08:25 PM
 #19

There is only 3600 BTC to be generated every day anyway, eventually the electricity will become the only factor that stopping people from mining, so an invester with long term perspective will consider investing in low cost engergy source, the future BTC tycoon is a water power plant owner  Grin

jl2012
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1722


View Profile
January 21, 2013, 03:05:27 PM
 #20

I believe the ASICs is bought by bullish people, and the operational cost isn't high. I don't see why they will sell their BTC immediately.

The idea is that more BTC will be mined then usual in from the moment ASICs hit till first difficulty adjustment. Then those people would wanna be first to the market to offset their costs and also to be first before those who got theirs later will dump and thus bring the price down.

Just let them dump. In a bull run like this dumping 3600BTC/day is just nothing

While pre-ordering Avalon might be their smartest investment ever, dumping the bitcoins mined by Avalon will be their stupidest investment ever.

Donation address: 374iXxS4BuqFHsEwwxUuH3nvJ69Y7Hqur3
PGP: D3CC 1772 8600 5BB8 FF67 3294 C524 2A1A B393 6517
Pages: [1] 2 »  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!