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 Author Topic: Theoretically there will be exactly no bitcoins in the future.  (Read 2195 times)
pedrog
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 February 25, 2016, 05:24:12 PM

Well reworking the divisible units might solve it, but I am not entirely sure about it.

Look at this example:

Imagine that 100 satoshi actually means something. You can buy thing A for 100 satoshi. Now you would renumber so 100 satoshi would be actually 10 000 satoshi.

That would either mean that thing A that costed 100 still costs 100 satoshi and then everybody got suddenly super rich or what costed 100 satoshi now costs 10 000 satoshi and nothing has changed. And therefore the rework of divisible units failed.

And the quote from Satoshi is correct but not indefinitely. I know its not our problem, but it is a question to ask.

/edit typo

It only makes sense increase decimal places if there are things that cost way less than 1 satoshi.

Imagine that in the far future 1 satoshi is worth \$100, that means you cannot use bitcoin to pay less than that, so, more decimal places.

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enhu
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 February 25, 2016, 05:27:03 PM

One thing that probably has not been thought of, during the creation of BTC, is that the number of Bitcoins will be slowly reducing to zero. There will be, in some time, 21KK BTC, but what about bitcoin that get lost? I mean hardware malfunctions. Wrong address transfers. Lost passwords. Forgotten wallets etc.

Do we know, how many of all Bitcoins is in circulations at this moment? I mean we can count the number that indicates how many it should be. We however do not know how many of them is inaccessible.

One day it might be a problem, but probably not the problem of our generation. Still statistically that says bitcoin cannot survive.

Okay lets assume we have lost most of the bitcoins. Once a threshold reaches people will stop using them all together.. but u are forgetting this is an 'Idea' there are lot many potential coins.. just ready to take its place. And people like us are so used to with it, there will always be a virtual currency. Bitcoin is the current face.. later i can be anything..

It has just began my friend

although bitcoin can still be valuable when it gets lesser. I have to agree there are lots of altcoins that will replace once btc is proved to be really not going to work in the future. there are altcoins seem to have a sophisticated system and can adapt to changes.

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Rotator
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 February 25, 2016, 05:41:08 PM

This is not possible. I didn't notice presence of black hole on blockchain, don't worry!

Many of us don't count on our memory(heads) for storing passwords for wallets.
Few people have lost their coins but this is their funeral!

DannyHamilton
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 February 25, 2016, 05:53:01 PM

One thing that probably has not been thought of, during the creation of BTC, is that the number of Bitcoins will be slowly reducing to zero.
- snip -
statistically that says bitcoin cannot survive.

Nope.  Try the math.

Lets assume that 10% of all the remaining bitcoins are lost every year.  That's a ridiculous amount.  At today's exchange rate that's a permanent loss from circulation of \$882 million dollars worth of bitcoins. I think most people would occur that losses will be much less than that.  But, for the sake of argument, how long will it take until there is nothing left?

10 years?  Nope.  After 10 years there will still be 7322247.24210000 BTC remaining.

50 years? Nope.  After 50 years there will still be 108229.27935400000 BTC remaining.

150 years?  Nope. After 150 years there will still be 2.874721060000 BTC remaining.

500 years?  Nope. After 250 years there will still be 7635.6610000000 satoshis remaining.

1000 years?  Nope.  After 1000 years there will still be 0.00000000000000036705296286175683 yoctoBTC

Keep adding decimal places (and shifting over the decimal point), and you can keep losing a percentage of what's left and still have more than trillions of spendable units.

The real question is, how do you prove that their bitcoins were in fact lost?

If it's a simple case of lost private key, you can't.  Why does that matter?

There are cases of outputs scripts that are provably unspendable.  In those cases you can count those bitcoins that are permanently unspendable.

Next generation miners will be treasure hunters. They will recover the lost coins.

This is only possible if mathematical weaknesses are discovered in the cryptographic functions that bitcoin currently uses.  I suppose that could happen, but there is no way right now to be certain that such a thing will ever happen.

It'd be nice to exactly know how much bitcoin is in circulation right now
- snip -

There was an analysis done in July 2014 that found (at that time) there were a total of 2,745.22283996 BTC that were provably permanently lost:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=675321.0

BARR_Official
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 February 25, 2016, 06:00:06 PM

Or, if 100% of all bitcoins were lost every day for the next 100 years, the number of bitcoins would still remain above 0.

I hope we can all agree that there isn't going to be a day when EVERY user of bitcoin is going to simultaneously permanently loose access to all their private keys.  However, if 100\$ of all bitcoins WERE lost on a single day, then the number would be 0.  That's pretty much what 100% means.

But then more would be generated in the next block.

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DannyHamilton
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 February 25, 2016, 06:08:51 PM

But then more would be generated in the next block.

Ah, I see what you are saying.  New bitcoins will continue to be generated for more than the next 100 years...

Ok, I'll go back and edit my post.  I was thinking that you meant after all new bitcoins were mined.

Bitware
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 February 25, 2016, 06:16:27 PM

The real question is, how do you prove that their bitcoins were in fact lost?
If it's a simple case of lost private key, you can't.  Why does that matter?

There are cases of outputs scripts that are provably unspendable.  In those cases you can count those bitcoins that are permanently unspendable.

It matters because people lie, cheat and steal and should not be rewarded for it.

If the alleged loss can be absolutely proven to be unspendable, then I have no issues.
aizzaku
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 February 25, 2016, 06:28:10 PM

One thing that probably has not been thought of, during the creation of BTC, is that the number of Bitcoins will be slowly reducing to zero. There will be, in some time, 21KK BTC, but what about bitcoin that get lost? I mean hardware malfunctions. Wrong address transfers. Lost passwords. Forgotten wallets etc.

Do we know, how many of all Bitcoins is in circulations at this moment? I mean we can count the number that indicates how many it should be. We however do not know how many of them is inaccessible.

One day it might be a problem, but probably not the problem of our generation. Still statistically that says bitcoin cannot survive.

Okay lets assume we have lost most of the bitcoins. Once a threshold reaches people will stop using them all together.. but u are forgetting this is an 'Idea' there are lot many potential coins.. just ready to take its place. And people like us are so used to with it, there will always be a virtual currency. Bitcoin is the current face.. later i can be anything..

It has just began my friend

although bitcoin can still be valuable when it gets lesser. I have to agree there are lots of altcoins that will replace once btc is proved to be really not going to work in the future. there are altcoins seem to have a sophisticated system and can adapt to changes.

Yes people are already started to make better projects even now.. more secure.. private.. etc etc features... but bitcoins has gained repo over a long period hence still the top one. But when the 1st place is out of the league the 2nd takes its place.

MedaR
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 February 25, 2016, 10:02:01 PM

Nope.  Try the math.

Lets assume that 10% of all the remaining bitcoins are lost every year.  That's a ridiculous amount.  At today's exchange rate that's a permanent loss from circulation of \$882 million dollars worth of bitcoins. I think most people would occur that losses will be much less than that.  But, for the sake of argument, how long will it take until there is nothing left?

10 years?  Nope.  After 10 years there will still be 7322247.24210000 BTC remaining.

50 years? Nope.  After 50 years there will still be 108229.27935400000 BTC remaining.

150 years?  Nope. After 150 years there will still be 2.874721060000 BTC remaining.

500 years?  Nope. After 250 years there will still be 7635.6610000000 satoshis remaining.

1000 years?  Nope.  After 1000 years there will still be 0.00000000000000036705296286175683 yoctoBTC

Keep adding decimal places (and shifting over the decimal point), and you can keep losing a percentage of what's left and still have more than trillions of spendable units

There was an analysis done in July 2014 that found (at that time) there were a total of 2,745.22283996 BTC that were provably permanently lost:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=675321.0
What are we talking here? What math?
Many coins are lost due to beginners faults, especially in early days when btc was almost worthless. As we approaching 1k\$ i think this percentage will be only less and less until become negligible values.
You'll never know for sure if some coins are actually lost except if those coins are not yours.

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Anddos
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 February 25, 2016, 10:10:14 PM

I think this is a little too bit of a grim prediction. Bitcoin will be here in 50 years.

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Rotator
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 February 26, 2016, 02:24:27 PM

We'll always have enough coins in circulation. Bitcoin is consisted from smaller units.
Only price can go up , with those lost coins. But globally bitcoin is safe.

Kprawn
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 February 26, 2016, 02:46:32 PM

I think if you couple the divisible nature with the extended rate of the generation of new coins, you might find that you will not have to ever worry about this until the last coin is mined. This will not be

in our lifetime, and even if this happens, people might then decide to adjust the cap or do something drastic, to generate some more coins. How can they fight over the total cap, if there are zero coins

in circulation? {This part, will be the difficult one to prove} In any way, I do not think Bitcoin will still be used by then, and even if it was still available, it would be worth very little. {supply & demand}

Spot available if you want to advertise something :->
Boosterious
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 May 07, 2016, 07:33:20 AM

One thing that probably has not been thought of, during the creation of BTC, is that the number of Bitcoins will be slowly reducing to zero. There will be, in some time, 21KK BTC, but what about bitcoin that get lost? I mean hardware malfunctions. Wrong address transfers. Lost passwords. Forgotten wallets etc.

Do we know, how many of all Bitcoins is in circulations at this moment? I mean we can count the number that indicates how many it should be. We however do not know how many of them is inaccessible.

One day it might be a problem, but probably not the problem of our generation. Still statistically that says bitcoin cannot survive.
yes,just little of use relize this fact,that bitcoin create just like other altcoin with limited amount,and at the end will cannot mine again,just bitcoin on our wallet,but this one makes difference between bitcoin and other that bitcoin still loving by so many people,and i'm sure that people will not let bitcoin finished.

BitcoinSupremo
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 May 07, 2016, 07:43:31 AM

What you are concerned about it will not be anyone of us problem in our journey of life. Maybe after we have died (no one knows when this happen) that problem may arose , so I think we are safe for the near to long term future as only 15 mln bitcoins approximately are mined so far. Personally I am not concerned at all about this, we should focus more to make bitcoin more usable and raising its value. Thats what I am concerned about bitcoin.

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NUFCrichard
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 May 07, 2016, 07:48:15 AM

Just dividing down in an endless deflation is also quite dangerous.
What if someone in the year 3000 finds a USB stick with 50 bitcoins on it and that is equivilant to \$100billion now?

Ok it is an extreme example, but could happen in a constantly deflating world.
Rude Boy
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 May 07, 2016, 08:30:46 AM

I think it bitcoin will exist in future. Because, if some bitcoins were send to a wrong address that was never used may be randomly generated by someone in the future and he/she got that lost bitcoin we cannot say its impossible but its a rare case.
DOGE12321
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 May 07, 2016, 08:39:30 AM

One thing that probably has not been thought of, during the creation of BTC, is that the number of Bitcoins will be slowly reducing to zero. There will be, in some time, 21KK BTC, but what about bitcoin that get lost? I mean hardware malfunctions. Wrong address transfers. Lost passwords. Forgotten wallets etc.

Do we know, how many of all Bitcoins is in circulations at this moment? I mean we can count the number that indicates how many it should be. We however do not know how many of them is inaccessible.

One day it might be a problem, but probably not the problem of our generation. Still statistically that says bitcoin cannot survive.
Dude just calm down and enjoy the pleasures of BTC at the moment. For BTC to die there is a log way to go. It would probably be aftaer all other cyrptos die out and it will not happen for our genereation like you said. So take my advice and reap the profits of BTC at the moment. Just think positively of the future.
mki8
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 May 07, 2016, 01:19:42 PM

i would think you could estimate the amount of coins lost
or estimate a rough maximum that might be lost

If you only look at data prior to April 2011
when 1 BTC = \$1

from that point on i would assume people would have started to take more steps to secure their coins and make sure passwords were stored safe, as that would be when a lot would start seeing the potential, so i dont think many coins would be lost after that time, or nothing considerable that would not be normal such as user error is, like typos and forgeting password, but these would most likely be small amounts that would not add up to anything significant

so i would say if you calculated how many coins were mined up until April 2011
Then it would be a safe bet i think to say that the amount up until then would be like a maximum that could be missing, but more likely about 20-50% of those early mined coins mined prior to Arpil 2011

EDIT: roughly 6 million in circulation April 2011,

i would estimate about 1-2million bitcoins may be lost

dont forget SN has 1 million
bob123
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 May 07, 2016, 01:32:17 PM

All Bitcoins never will be lost..
Even if all except 1 bitcoin are inaccessable..
this just makes the 1 btc worth 21 million x old value

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Karpeles
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 May 07, 2016, 01:50:59 PM

No, it's wrong, because there will always have some die-hard fans who will keep their bitcoins in their paper wallets/physical coins no matter what happens.

If they will keep their coins no matter what then they are lost in practice, because no one that will spend them will have their private keys.

Of course one day most Bitcoins will be unacessible, but it would take centuries for such situation to happens, the coin more than likely will be dead long ago way before that.

Bitcoin was not made to last forever
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