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 Author Topic: Theoretically there will be exactly no bitcoins in the future.  (Read 2195 times)
DannyHamilton
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 May 07, 2016, 01:52:28 PM

so i would say if you calculated how many coins were mined up until April 2011 (i am sure someone here will know this)

This is a pretty easy calculation (Since you only specified a month, I'll use the middle of the month, April 15):
• There are 60 minutes in an hour, 24 hours in a day, and 365.25 days in a year
• Multiply those together and you find there are about 525960 minutes in a year, and 1440 minutes in a day
• A new block is generated on average every 10 minutes.
• Divide the minutes per year (and per day) by 10 minutes per block to find out on average how many blocks are generated in that time
• So, we get about 52596 blocks per year and 144 blocks per day
• Satoshi started bitcoin on 2009 January 3
• There are 2 years between 2009 January 3 and 2011 January 3
• There are 28+28+31+15= 102 days between 2011 January 3 and 2011 April 15
• 2 years * 52596 blocks per year = 105192 blocks
• 102 days * 144 blocks per day = 14688 blocks
• So, by mid-April 2011 there were approximately 105192 + 14688 = 119880 blocks
• The block subsidy back then was 50 BTC per block.
• 50 BTC per block * 119880 blocks = approximately 5994000 bitcoins mined

If you look at blockchain.info you'll see that my calculated "estimate" of 119880 blocks on April 15 is close, but not exact:
https://blockchain.info/block-height/119880

The 119880'th block was actually generated on April 24.  If we click on the "Previous Block" hash over and over, eventually we get back to the 118412'th block which was the first block generated on April 15.

So if you multiply 118412 blocks * 50 BTC per block, you find that by exactly mid April there should have been exactly 5920600 bitcoins mined.

Looks like my "estimate" was pretty close.  It's the difference between saying "5.99 million BTC" and "5.92 million BTC".

Then it would be a safe bet i think to say that the amount up until then would be like a maximum that could be missing, but more likely about 20-50% of those early mined coins mined prior to Arpil 2011

20% * 5920600 BTC = 1184120 BTC

50% * 5920600 BTC = 2960300 BTC

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mki8
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 May 07, 2016, 02:03:47 PM

so i would say if you calculated how many coins were mined up until April 2011 (i am sure someone here will know this)

This is a pretty easy calculation (Since you only specified a month, I'll use the middle of the month, April 15):
• There are 60 minutes in an hour, 24 hours in a day, and 365.25 days in a year
• Multiply those together and you find there are about 525960 minutes in a year, and 1440 minutes in a day
• A new block is generated on average every 10 minutes.
• Divide the minutes per year (and per day) by 10 minutes per block to find out on average how many blocks are generated in that time
• So, we get about 52596 blocks per year and 144 blocks per day
• Satoshi started bitcoin on 2009 January 3
• There are 2 years between 2009 January 3 and 2011 January 3
• There are 28+28+31+15= 102 days between 2011 January 3 and 2011 April 15
• 2 years * 52596 blocks per year = 105192 blocks
• 102 days * 144 blocks per day = 14688 blocks
• So, by mid-April 2011 there were approximately 105192 + 14688 = 119880 blocks
• The block subsidy back then was 50 BTC per block.
• 50 BTC per block * 119880 blocks = approximately 5994000 bitcoins mined

If you look at blockchain.info you'll see that my calculated "estimate" of 119880 blocks on April 15 is close, but not exact:
https://blockchain.info/block-height/119880

The 119880'th block was actually generated on April 24.  If we click on the "Previous Block" hash over and over, eventually we get back to the 118412'th block which was the first block generated on April 15.

So if you multiply 118412 blocks * 50 BTC per block, you find that by exactly mid April there should have been exactly 5920600 bitcoins mined.

Looks like my "estimate" was pretty close.  It's the difference between saying "5.99 million BTC" and "5.92 million BTC".

Then it would be a safe bet i think to say that the amount up until then would be like a maximum that could be missing, but more likely about 20-50% of those early mined coins mined prior to Arpil 2011

20% * 5920600 BTC = 1184120 BTC

50% * 5920600 BTC = 2960300 BTC

at the end there you forgot to factor in satoshi has 1 million out of the first 6

also to work out how many bitcoins were in circulation, i just done the quick method and used this link:
http://www.coindesk.com/data/bitcoin-total-circulation/
DannyHamilton
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 May 07, 2016, 02:18:38 PM

at the end there you forgot to factor in satoshi has 1 million out of the first 6

What does that have to do with anything?
Satoshi could be dead (and his bitcoins lost).
Satoshi could have lost his private keys (and his bitcoins lost).

Nearly all of the bitcoins that people assume Satoshi has have never been spent. Is this because he has chosen not to spend them or is it because they are lost?  How would you know?

voztata
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 May 07, 2016, 04:00:45 PM

Op's argument isn't entirely wrong though. We've only considered the present times which is that the number of bitcoins lost is dust compared to what is mined everyday. If, I say again, if there comes a point when there are no minable bitcoins left, the number of bitcoins will start reducing everyday. Those that hold onto bitcoins with paper wallet can, theoretically, be 'lost' because they are not in transaction anymore.
I stand to be corrected as this is only an opinion.

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SpeedyCapo
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 May 09, 2016, 01:10:23 PM

I do nit see any reason why in the future there would be no Bitcoins. I do not know why people say this and I would like to see a explanation on why Bitcoin is not going to be there in the future.
HeroCat
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 May 09, 2016, 02:15:06 PM

If small part from all BTC are lost, it is nothing. It is very small part - in lost wallets, computer viruses etc. The whole BTC system is covering whole world with thousands of daily users.
raphma
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 May 09, 2016, 02:45:58 PM

Yep, some day probably all bitcoin will be lost, but bitcoin will die way sooner... and another crypto will take it place.
still, not this generation problem.

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Icathia
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 May 09, 2016, 03:00:47 PM

Of course there are going to be Bitcoins in the future, there is no guaranteed that you know what is going to happen with Bitcoin but I do not see why Bitcoins are going to disappear in the future.
Junko
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 May 10, 2016, 12:25:17 AM

The more bitcoins that are lost, the more people will take care with their own holdings since their value will increase.
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